估值观察
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估值周观察(6月第4期):日韩估值扩张
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-21 13:15
Group 1 - The report highlights a significant divergence in overseas markets, with Japan and South Korea experiencing valuation expansion while other markets show slight contraction [2][9] - The South Korean Composite Index and KOSPI50 both saw increases exceeding 4%, indicating strong market performance [2][9] - The report notes that the rolling one-year PE percentile for the South Korean Composite Index surged from 20% to 86%, reflecting a rapid valuation increase [2][9] Group 2 - A-shares experienced a broad decline, with core indices showing mixed valuation movements, particularly in small-cap growth stocks which saw significant PE contraction [2][26] - The report indicates that the PE for the CSI 2000, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices contracted by 3.22x, 1.35x, and 2.99x respectively, highlighting a downward trend in valuations [2][26] - The overall valuation levels for major A-share indices are positioned between the 60%-95% percentiles for PE, PB, and PS metrics, with PCF in the 80%-90% range [2][27] Group 3 - The report identifies a general contraction in the valuation of primary industries, with notable declines in downstream consumer sectors such as beauty care, textiles, and pharmaceuticals [2][49] - The beauty care sector saw a PE reduction exceeding 2x, while social services and defense industries also experienced significant valuation declines [2][49] - The banking sector, in contrast, showed resilience with a 2.63% increase, indicating a strong performance relative to other industries [2][49] Group 4 - The report emphasizes that essential consumer sectors exhibit superior valuation attractiveness, particularly in food and beverage, and agriculture, which have substantial valuation recovery potential [2][49] - The food and beverage sector's three-year and five-year average valuation percentiles are notably low at 7.47% and 4.49%, respectively, indicating room for valuation improvement [2][49] - The report also notes that the TMT sector, represented by electronics and communications, is currently at mid to long-term high valuation levels [2][49]