2025 年 07 月 01 日 新时期消费投资总论：巴菲特"破防"了么？—兼"新消费 50"组合 与十五大启示 在过去相当长时间内，资本市场自上而下对于消费定价的第一性原理的理论基础 是基于经济学，表现为消费是经济和收入的函数，基于此的消费定价在过去屡试不 爽。伴随着城镇化加速与中产阶级加速崛起的过程，2010-2022 年长达十余年间 A 股关于消费定价始终围绕着"消费升级"主线，一路带来"2010 年五朵金花"、"2017 年漂亮 50"、"2019-2020 年茅指数"等诸多高光时刻，而伴随着中国房地产在 2021 年步入深入调整，居民消费心智的变迁，A 股以白酒为代表的传统消费投资逐渐黯 淡，而包括泡泡玛特、老铺黄金在内的新消费定价风起云涌。在这一过程中，我们 认为当前消费投资已经步入新时期，需要对新时期消费投资进行重塑： 1、消费投资的变化诱因：历史回顾比较看，在长时间序列更广谱的国家中，随着 经济的发展都有一段中产阶级崛起的过程，中产的消费变迁在一定程度上也代表 了整体消费定价趋势。从海外经验看，当中产阶级出现波动，消费投资或有新特征。 当然，面对国内中产阶级未来中期趋势，当前我国正加速产业升级 ...

Group 1 - The rise of snack stores is a significant consumer trend in China, comparable to the popularity of milk tea shops [1][2] - Snack stores primarily cater to consumers outside of first-tier cities, tapping into a vast market [2][3] - The appeal of snack stores lies in their variety and affordability, allowing consumers to purchase multiple flavors at a low cost [3][5] Group 2 - Snack stores fulfill two consumer desires: the craving for variety and the need for affordable indulgence [5][6] - The low investment and operational requirements make snack stores attractive for franchisees, contributing to their rapid expansion [10][11] - The uniform demand for snacks across different regions facilitates quicker establishment of snack stores compared to restaurants [12][13] Group 3 - Despite their growth, snack stores face challenges, particularly low profit margins, with "Mingming Hen Mang" reporting a gross margin of 7.5% and a net profit margin of 2% [14][15] - The average gross margin for franchisees in the snack industry is around 20%, while the parent company retains a lower margin [16] Group 4 - The entry of new players, such as "Chayan Yuesheng," a well-known milk tea brand, into the snack market indicates the sector's attractiveness [21][22] - Chayan Yuesheng's strategy involves developing its own snack products, differentiating itself from typical snack stores that rely on existing brands [24][26] - The brand's expertise in flavor development from its milk tea business enhances its ability to create appealing snack products [27][28] Group 5 - Chayan Yuesheng's expansion into snacks is a response to local market saturation and aims to attract repeat customers [30][31] - The integration of snack offerings at milk tea locations allows for cross-selling opportunities, enhancing customer experience [34][36] - The ability to sell self-branded snacks through e-commerce platforms broadens market reach beyond local areas [37][38] Group 6 - Chayan Yuesheng's approach of combining high-margin milk tea with low-margin snacks can improve overall profitability [41]

今天和铁柱聊了一个多小时，他是甘肃人，在墨西哥首都墨西哥城，开了一家中餐厅。请的全是墨西哥本地人，餐厅 一般营业到当地时间晚上九点半，服务员会准点就走人，不会有服务员继续苦干。如果老板要求加班，必须支付3倍 工资。但他们更愿意花时间去喝酒唱歌，而不是加班赚钱。我问，"一点班都不加吗？""你只要让他们加班，直接给你 当面怼回来。甚至辞职。" 在马来西亚雪兰莪州，中国最大的酸菜鱼连锁店"鱼你在一起"，海外负责人军总告诉我，在当地的坪效比国内高出 50% 左右。一份酸菜鱼，在国内买30元人民币，在这边是差不多 30马币（48元人民币），高出60%。堂食生意火爆， 根本不需要开通外卖。当地外卖行业大小平台四五家，都活得不错。 但反观我们国内餐饮业，从外卖平台，到餐饮商家、骑手、消费者，我们这个链条上，每个参与者都很难受。 中国现在外卖的悖论：外卖平台要赚钱要扩张，商家要赚钱要流量，骑手要赚钱要社保，送餐不能太着急等，消费者 要又便宜又好又及时。 这根本不可能！ 我们这个链条上，每个环节都在卡bug，都过得很拧巴。平台、商家、消费者们都已经习惯了低价产品。所以蜜雪冰 城、拼多多、美团等成了最热门的公司和股票。 | 国家 ...