每经编辑｜金冥羽 贾运可 今年4月以来，外卖行业掀起了一场空前激烈的"补贴大战"。多家大型互联网平台企业利用资金优势，通过"百亿补贴""大额优惠券"等促销手段争夺市场 份额，行业竞争日益白热化。 日前，复旦大学相关课题组发布的研究成果揭示了一个令人警醒的现象：流量盛宴背后，商户普遍陷入"增量不增收"的发展困境。 课题组在研究了4万余家餐饮商户数据后发现，7月以来竞争加剧期间，商户每日"外卖加堂食"总订单量平均增长7%，但商户每日实收金额平均下降约 4%。在"外卖利润率保持不变"的基准情形下估算，竞争升温期商户外卖加堂食总利润平均下降约1.7%，进入竞争加剧期后，平均降幅扩大至8.9%。 在某种程度上，这场外卖大战是互联网平台经济"流量为王"逻辑的极致演绎。激烈的市场竞争为消费者带来了肉眼可见的好处，但负面效应也逐渐显现。 首当其冲的是餐饮商户。在平台算法与流量分配机制的裹挟下，商户陷入"不参与即出局"的困境。为维持店铺曝光率，他们被迫持续让利，最终陷入"订 单增长而利润萎缩"的怪圈。这不仅直接挤压了商户的利润空间，更削弱了其在产品创新与服务优化上的投入能力。 也就是说，生态修复要从"争输赢"转向"求共赢"。这 ...

每经评论员 徐肖逍 今年4月以来，外卖行业掀起了一场空前激烈的"补贴大战"。多家大型互联网平台企业利用资金优势， 通过"百亿补贴""大额优惠券"等促销手段争夺市场份额，行业竞争日益白热化。 日前，复旦大学相关课题组发布的研究成果揭示了一个令人警醒的现象：流量盛宴背后，商户普遍陷 入"增量不增收"的发展困境。 课题组在研究了4万余家餐饮商户数据后发现，7月以来竞争加剧期间，商户每日"外卖加堂食"总订单量 平均增长7%，但商户每日实收金额平均下降约4%。在"外卖利润率保持不变"的基准情形下估算，竞争 升温期商户外卖加堂食总利润平均下降约1.7%，进入竞争加剧期后，平均降幅扩大至8.9%。 在某种程度上，这场外卖大战是互联网平台经济"流量为王"逻辑的极致演绎。激烈的市场竞争为消费者 带来了肉眼可见的好处，但负面效应也逐渐显现。 首当其冲的是餐饮商户。在平台算法与流量分配机制的裹挟下，商户陷入"不参与即出局"的困境。为维 持店铺曝光率，他们被迫持续让利，最终陷入"订单增长而利润萎缩"的怪圈。这不仅直接挤压了商户的 利润空间，更削弱了其在产品创新与服务优化上的投入能力。 其次，贴身肉搏的平台本身也损失惨重。一是利润严重 ...

社会服务 2025 年 11 月 23 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 社会服务 沪深300 相关研究报告 《大麦国际打通国内外演出闭环，户 外露营烧烤迎金秋旺季—行业周报》 -2025.11.16 《视频播客成为内容平台增长新曲 线，海南离岛免税新政成效初显—行 业周报》-2025.11.9 《南美/中东非潮玩渗透空间广阔，补 贴收缩茶咖龙头强势增长—行业周 报》-2025.10.26 锅圈蹲苗后加速开店，10 月潮玩品牌表现分化 ——行业周报 | 初敏（分析师） | 李睿娴（分析师） | 叶彬慧（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | chumin@kysec.cn | liruixian@kysec.cn | yebinhui@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522080008 | 证书编号：S0790525020004 | 证书编号：S0790124070053 | 旅游/潮玩：携程 2025Q3 业绩稳健优秀，10 月潮玩线下店效稳增 携程 2025Q3 实现 18 ...

2025.11. 21 该研究显示，7月以来竞争加剧期，商户每日"外卖加堂食"总订单量平均增长7％，但商户每日实收金 额平均下降约4％。在"外卖利润率保持不变"的基准情形下估算，竞争升温期商户外卖加堂食总利润 平均下降约1.7％，进入竞争加剧期后，平均降幅扩大至8.9％。上述利润增减因商户而异，若补贴大 战下外卖订单利润率进一步下降，则上述商户总利润降幅更大；反之，若外卖订单利润率提高，则可 能出现商户利润增长。 本文字数：1622，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 金叶子 今年4月以来，互联网平台纷纷入局外卖补贴大战。随着补贴大战逐渐退潮，参与其中的餐饮商户受 到了哪些影响？ 21日在复旦大学经济学院主办的"平台价格竞争与餐饮业高质量发展"研讨会上，复旦大学文科资深教 授、经济学院院长张军教授领衔的课题组发布一项研究成果，数据分析结果显示，相对于常态化补 贴，大额补贴通过降低实际支付价格刺激了消费者外卖消费意愿，带动外卖订单量快速增长。然而， 商户侧普遍呈现"增量不增收"的状态。 这篇题为《"赚了流量，赔了利润"—补贴大战如何累及餐饮商户？》的研究成果，基于全国4万余家 餐饮商户堂食和外卖完整日交易数 ...

另外，研究指出，即便是未参与补贴的商户也难以"置身事外"。在大额外卖补贴下，这些商户面临着显 著的"虹吸效应"——其外卖和堂食消费者纷纷转向参与补贴的商户，使得这些商户陷入"参加补贴利润 少、不参加订单少"的两难境地，部分商户不得不调整经营策略以适应市场竞争格局，最终加入补贴 战。数据分析显示，商户参与补贴的力度越大，越能通过订单的增加来带动营收，但利润下降得越多。 报告认为，堂食体验是餐饮商户的核心竞争力，重视堂食经营的商户在外卖补贴大战下表现出更强的韧 性。数据显示，以堂食为主的商户堂食营收平均降幅显著小于以外卖为主的商户。另外，大额补贴的影 响表现出时序持续、地域差异、商户分化等特点。 品牌连锁商户与独立门店也呈现分化。品牌连锁商户在补贴大战中整体参与度高、投入大，对外卖消费 者的吸引力也较强，同时堂食替代也较为明显。分析显示，大额补贴冲击下，两类商户堂食营收均下 降，但连锁商户的外卖营收获得增益。相比之下，独立门店整体营收面临更大损失。 研究报告显示，大额外卖补贴对堂食的负面影响具有溢出效应，可能波及其他服务消费业态。消费者外 出就餐频率降低，会进一步导致餐馆周边、同一商圈内其他到店消费客流的减少。 ...

Core Insights - The competition in the food delivery market has intensified since July, leading to a 7% average increase in total daily orders for merchants, while their actual revenue has decreased by approximately 4% [1][2] - A study conducted by Fudan University highlights the impact of the subsidy war on restaurant merchants, indicating that while large subsidies stimulate consumer demand, they do not translate into increased revenue for merchants, resulting in a "gain in traffic, loss in profit" scenario [1][2] Summary by Sections Impact of Subsidy Wars - Since the onset of the subsidy wars in April, the average total profit for merchants has decreased by 1.7% during the competition period, with a more significant decline of 8.9% during the intensified competition phase [2] - Merchants that participate more heavily in subsidies see an increase in orders but also experience a greater decline in profits [3] Merchant Dynamics - Non-participating merchants are also affected by a "siphoning effect," where consumers shift to subsidized merchants, forcing them to reconsider their strategies [3] - Merchants focusing on dine-in services show greater resilience compared to those primarily reliant on delivery, with dine-in revenue declines being significantly smaller [3] Market Regulation - The National Market Regulation Administration has urged major platforms like Ele.me, Meituan, and JD to regulate promotional behaviors and foster a healthier ecosystem for consumers, merchants, and delivery personnel [4] - The study recommends establishing a regulatory framework for platform subsidies to protect small merchants and ensure fair pricing practices [4]

Group 1: Low-altitude Economy in Guangdong - Guangdong's low-altitude economy is experiencing significant breakthroughs, with companies like XPeng and EHang achieving milestones in product launches and commercial operations [3][4] - The goal is to surpass a market scale of 300 billion yuan by 2026, supported by favorable policies and technological advancements [3] Group 2: Brand Integration for Overseas Markets - Chinese companies are shifting from merely selling products to building brand recognition through cultural integration in target markets [5] - Strategies for successful brand integration include local storytelling, leveraging local influencers, and aligning with cultural values [5] Group 3: Energy Storage Market Dynamics - Chinese energy storage companies saw overseas orders reach 186 GWh in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of over 220% [6] - Major markets include the Middle East, Europe, and Australia, while challenges such as trade barriers and certification standards persist [6] Group 4: Smart Agriculture and Technology - Recent international agricultural exhibitions highlighted the role of smart machinery in enhancing agricultural productivity [7][8] - Chinese agricultural technology is gaining traction globally, with significant participation from international buyers [7] Group 5: Automotive Export Trends - From 2021 to 2024, China's automotive exports are projected to grow from 2.01 million to 5.86 million units, with a 21% year-on-year increase in the first three quarters of 2025 [9] - Chinese automakers are focusing on local production and brand acquisitions to expand their global market share [9] Group 6: Gaming Market Expansion - The global gaming market is expected to grow significantly, with mobile gaming projected to reach $342.2 billion by 2033 [10] - Russia is emerging as a key market for Chinese mobile games, with a notable presence in the top revenue-generating titles [10] Group 7: Robotics Market in South Korea - Chinese service robots, particularly in the cleaning sector, are gaining market share in South Korea, with companies like Roborock leading [11] - The collaboration between China and South Korea in AI and digital economy sectors presents significant growth opportunities [11] Group 8: Southeast Asia Consumer Trends - Southeast Asia's young population and economic growth are driving demand for Chinese products, particularly through e-commerce [12] - The region presents opportunities for Chinese companies to establish local manufacturing to mitigate risks [12] Group 9: Sports Industry Growth - The Asian sports industry is experiencing rapid growth, with a focus on high-quality development and digital innovation [13] - The 2025 Asian Sports Industry Summit aims to explore opportunities for collaboration and growth in the sector [13] Group 10: ByteDance's Global Strategy - ByteDance is shifting its strategy for overseas AI applications from technology showcase to user acquisition, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East [14][15] - The company is leveraging its existing ecosystem while navigating regulatory challenges in Western markets [15] Group 11: Didi's Electric Vehicle Initiative - Didi has launched a fleet of 500 electric vehicles in Mexico, aiming to promote sustainable transportation in Latin America [16] - The company plans to expand its electric vehicle fleet significantly by 2030, contributing to reduced carbon emissions [16] Group 12: Meituan's Financial Performance - Meituan reported a revenue of 86.6 billion yuan in Q1, with a year-on-year growth of 18%, highlighting its robust overseas performance [17] - The company is focusing on sustainable growth through technological innovation and expansion into new markets [17] Group 13: Cainiao's Logistics Innovations - Cainiao is partnering with retail giants in Southeast Asia to enhance logistics efficiency through AI and automated systems [18][19] - The company aims to leverage its technology to improve supply chain operations and expand its market presence [19] Group 14: Li Auto's Market Strategy - Li Auto has opened its first retail center in Central Asia, focusing on a dealer authorization model to mitigate risks [20] - The company is prioritizing Central Asia for its expansion strategy while delaying plans for the European market [20] Group 15: TCL's Global Strategy - TCL reported a revenue of 14.346 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2023, with a focus on high-quality growth and brand value [21] - The company is enhancing its global presence through sports marketing and increased R&D investment [21] Group 16: New Stone's Expansion in Autonomous Vehicles - New Stone has secured over $600 million in funding to accelerate its expansion in the autonomous vehicle market [22] - The company plans to deploy 5,000 autonomous vehicles in the UAE by next year, reflecting the industry's rapid growth [22] Group 17: Yushu Technology's IPO Progress - Yushu Technology is advancing its IPO process, with overseas business accounting for 50% of its revenue [23] - The company is focusing on expanding its market share in the robotics sector while enhancing its global strategy [23]

这个秋季，商场如战场。 娃哈哈宫斗大戏尾声，外卖大战没完没了，3C数码租赁市场爆发，自驾游自由行火热，低价超市来了，中国游戏终于进阶了......这背后的推手不仅仅是企业 与资本，还有消费者的选择。 资本赋能商业，商业引导消费，消费反哺资本。在数字经济时代，这一循环更趋加速与复杂化——平台经济、数据资产和金融工具的介入，使资本能更迅速 地捕捉消费趋势，商业也能更敏捷地调整战略，从而不断重塑市场格局与社会经济结构。 而这一切也终将会在资本市场上体现，结构性牛市板块轮动、全球科技股的爆发以及新方向的不断涌现...... 由搜狐号财经与搜狐号科技共同打造【产业热潮我来评】活动现已完结，在商业热点领域中，@快马财媒、@一口老炮、@斑马消费、@红餐网、@正见 TrueView、@金融八卦女、@天下网商、@张书乐、@皮海洲、@侃见财经、@小编也疯狂优质内容上榜，一起看看各位商业热评家们追踪了市场方向？ 除了追踪商业热点，产业前沿的趋势也要精准把控，想了解产业前沿领域优质观点请见《特斯拉要逆势扩产，中美芯片初现"分水岭"，AI看预制菜愤怒指 数…这些前沿信号你看到了吗？》。 *榜单将会同步于搜狐号活动小助手。 近期的大公司 ...

Macro and Strategy - The report discusses the global asset management deep research series, focusing on personalized portfolios and tax efficiency, highlighting the advantages of separately managed accounts (SMA) for high-net-worth and institutional clients [7][8] - SMA allows for customized investment strategies based on individual risk preferences and tax optimization techniques, contrasting with model portfolios that lack personalization [7][8] Industry and Company Robotics Industry - Tesla plans to expand its Texas factory to produce 10 million humanoid robots annually, with production expected to start in 2027 [9][10] - The IPO guidance for Yuzhu Technology has been completed, indicating a rapid development in the domestic humanoid robot sector [10][12] - The report emphasizes the long-term investment opportunities in humanoid robots, suggesting a focus on core suppliers and companies with strong market positions [12] AI Infrastructure - Anthropic announced a $50 billion investment in AI data centers in the U.S., reflecting strong demand for AI-driven cloud infrastructure [11][12] - The report highlights the growing investment in AI infrastructure, particularly in energy supply for data centers, recommending companies involved in energy supply and cooling solutions [12][14] Food and Beverage Industry - Luckin Coffee reported a 50.2% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3 2025, but faced profit pressure due to rising delivery costs, which surged by 211.4% [16] - Yum China also saw revenue growth driven by its delivery sales, with a 32% increase in delivery revenue, maintaining a stable operating profit margin [16][17] - The report suggests that the differences in profitability between Luckin Coffee and Yum China stem from their competitive environments and membership channel contributions [16][17] Medical Device Industry - The medical sector outperformed the overall market, with a 3.29% increase in the biopharmaceutical sector, while the medical device multinational corporations (MNCs) reported varied performance across different product categories [18][19] - The report recommends focusing on innovative and export-capable A-share medical device companies, particularly those benefiting from domestic substitution trends [19] Power Equipment and New Energy - The report outlines a positive outlook for the wind power sector, expecting a 10%-20% growth in new installations in 2026, supported by strong order backlogs and price stability [20][21] - The lithium battery industry is anticipated to recover from a downtrend, with new technologies like solid-state batteries expected to accelerate commercialization [20][21] - Recommendations include focusing on companies involved in energy supply for AI data centers and those in the lithium battery supply chain [21][22] Semiconductor Equipment - Tuojing Technology reported a significant revenue increase of 124.15% year-on-year in Q3 2025, driven by the scaling of advanced packaging and storage equipment [23][24] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing expansion in the storage wafer market, with a focus on advanced packaging technologies [25][26]

杰富瑞将外卖平台DoorDash的目标价从220美元上调至260美元，评级从"持有"上调至"买入"。该行注意 到，美国餐厅外卖和广告收入的快速增长是主要的利润驱动因素。 ...