Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term alumina prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating pattern. The supply - stable and rigid - demand pattern remains unchanged. The high premium of futures restricts the upward space, while energy price fluctuations due to geopolitical factors and low inventory support the price, lacking a driving factor for a unilateral trend [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On March 11, 2026, the SHFE alumina futures main contract (AO.SHF) closed at 2869 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 0.77% from the previous trading day. The intraday opening price was 2839 yuan/ton, the highest price was 2879 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 2823 yuan/ton, and the intraday fluctuation range was 1.98%, showing an oscillating upward trend with a bottom - touching rebound and a slowdown in the afternoon [2] 3.2 Spot Market Analysis - On March 11, 2026, the average spot price index of alumina in China was 2687 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous day. In the past week, the spot price has gradually increased from 2673 yuan/ton on March 5, with a cumulative increase of 14 yuan/ton or 0.52%. The price trend is relatively more stable than that of futures. Regionally, on March 11, the alumina prices in South China were 2700 - 2750 yuan/ton, in East China were 2660 - 2700 yuan/ton, in Southwest China were 2725 - 2765 yuan/ton, and in Northwest China were 2965 - 3005 yuan/ton. The price in Northwest China increased by 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, while the prices in other regions remained stable [3] 3.3 Market Dynamics - **Supply side**: As of March 11, the built - in production capacity of alumina in China was 113.9 million tons, the operating production capacity was 89.5 million tons, and the operating rate was 78.58%, with overall stable supply. In terms of inventory, the domestic alumina inventory at the end of February 2026 was 385,000 tons, a slight increase of 1.32% from 380,000 tons at the end of January, at a low level in recent years [4] - **Demand side**: From January to February 2026, the cumulative output of downstream electrolytic aluminum reached 7,294,420 tons, showing year - on - year growth. The downstream factories' operation has returned to the pre - holiday level, maintaining rigid procurement. The further release space of demand is limited, and the downstream buyers are generally cautious [5] 3.4 Market Outlook - Short - term alumina prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating pattern. The supply - stable and rigid - demand pattern remains unchanged. The high premium of futures restricts the upward space, while energy price fluctuations due to geopolitical factors and low inventory support the price, lacking a driving factor for a unilateral trend [6]