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新乳业:2025年报点评:结构优化,盈利兑现-20260331
Orient Securities· 2026-03-31 06:24
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and raises the target price to 22.44 CNY from the previous 17.16 CNY [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 11.23 billion CNY and a net profit of 731 million CNY for the year 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.33% and 36.0% respectively [10]. - The strong performance in Q4 2025 is attributed to the success of the low-temperature strategy, with significant growth in low-temperature yogurt and fresh milk, both achieving double-digit growth [10]. - The company is expected to continue improving its profitability due to product and channel optimization, with a projected EPS of 1.02 CNY for 2026, up from the previous estimate of 0.97 CNY [4][10]. Financial Information Summary - Revenue (in million CNY): - 2024A: 10,665 - 2025A: 11,233 - 2026E: 11,730 - 2027E: 12,258 - 2028E: 12,784 - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue: - 2025: 5.3% - 2026: 4.4% - 2027: 4.5% - 2028: 4.3% [5] - Net profit (in million CNY): - 2024A: 538 - 2025A: 731 - 2026E: 879 - 2027E: 1,054 - 2028E: 1,233 - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit: - 2025: 36.0% - 2026: 20.2% - 2027: 20.0% - 2028: 16.9% [5] - EPS (in CNY): - 2024A: 0.62 - 2025A: 0.85 - 2026E: 1.02 - 2027E: 1.23 - 2028E: 1.43 [5] - Gross margin: - 2025: 29.2% - 2026E: 30.1% - 2027E: 30.4% - 2028E: 31.2% [5] - Net margin: - 2025: 6.5% - 2026E: 7.5% - 2027E: 8.6% - 2028E: 9.6% [5]