文：向善财经 近日，新乳业的投资者应该不好受，股价出现波动，实控人UDL也首次通过二级市场减持公司股份。 公告显示，UDL持有公司65.07%的股权，计划自公告披露之日起15个交易日后的3个月内，通过集中竞价或大宗交易方式减持不超过2582.03万股，即不超过 公司总股本的3%。 按照现在的股价测算，总金额应该接近5亿人民币。 穿透股权，UDL的实控人是刘畅，是原实控人刘永好的女儿。 从减持的比例上看，其实并不算多，毕竟父女俩共持有近八成的股份，减持3%不算特别多。 但自新乳业上市后，刘永好父女从未有过减持动作。 单看这事其实不算复杂，不过，谁还没个第一次啊，第一次并没有戏剧性，有戏剧性的在于背后的关联性，正如芒格所说"你必须像生态学家研究森林一样 看待企业——所有事物都相互关联。" 这样看，事情就有变化了，减持这事儿还得从飞马国际说起。 具体来说，就在6月23日，同为上市公司的飞马国际也公告了实控权拟转让的消息。 从公开资料可以看到，飞马国际成立于1998年，2008年在深交所上市，目前市值约为85亿元。 其主营业务以供应链服务为基础，逐步拓展到环保新能源领域。 而其控股股东正是刘永好，只不过是间接控制。 ...

21世纪经济报道记者贺泓源北京报道 | 姓名 | 性别 | 年齢 | 职务 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 席刚 | 場 | 53 | 重事长 | 现任 | | Liu Chang | 女 | 45 | 重事 | 现任 | | 李巍 | 女 | 72 | 重量 | 现任 | | 朱川 | 場 | રેરે | 董事、总裁 | 现任 | | 刘栩 | 場 | 45 | 畫事 | 现任 | | 戸市基 | 場 | 53 | 独立董事 | 现任 | | 景で | 場 | 53 | 独立董事 | 现任 | | 杨志清 | 場 | 63 | 独立董事 | 现任 | | 陈碧 | 女 | 48 | 独立董事 | 现任 | 新乳业的董事会。图片来源：该公司2024年年报 刘畅的新乳业 需要注意的是，此番减持，对于新乳业的股权结构影响非常有限。 此前披露的公告显示，截至2024年末，新乳业总股本为8.61亿元，自然人LiuChang（刘畅）通过UDL持有新乳业股权比例为65.07%；新希望集团董事长刘永 好通过新希望投资集团持有新乳业15.41%的股份。 刘永好之女刘畅正在减持她个 ...

Core Viewpoint - The controlling shareholder, Universal Dairy Limited (UDL), plans to reduce its stake in New Dairy by up to 3% of the total share capital, amounting to approximately 487 million yuan based on the closing price on June 27, 2023, which has raised market attention given the company's stock price has doubled in the past year [1][2]. Shareholder Reduction Plan - UDL intends to sell 25.82 million shares within three months after the announcement, representing 3% of the total share capital, with a maximum of 8.61 million shares through centralized bidding and 17.21 million shares through block trading [2]. - UDL currently holds 560 million shares, accounting for 65.07% of the total share capital, and the actual controller is Liu Chang, who acquired these shares before the company went public [2]. - This marks the first significant reduction by the controlling shareholder since New Dairy's listing, and if the maximum reduction occurs, UDL's stake will decrease to 62.07%, still maintaining control [2]. Stock Performance and Financials - New Dairy operates primarily in regional markets, focusing on differentiated competition, with over 50% of its products being low-temperature items, surpassing the industry average [3]. - The stock price has seen a significant increase, from a low of 7.6 yuan in August 2024 to a peak of 21.19 yuan in 2025, reflecting a more than 160% increase [3]. - As of June 27, 2023, the stock price was 18.88 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 16.3 billion yuan [3]. - Despite a 2.93% decrease in revenue in 2024, the company reported a 48.46% year-on-year increase in net profit, attributed to product structure optimization and cost control [3]. Strategic Outlook and Market Reaction - New Dairy plans to continue its "Fresh Cube" strategy, focusing on low-temperature product development and expanding its cold chain distribution network by 50,000 new points, aiming to increase the revenue share of low-temperature products to 55% [4]. - Analysts note that while the reduction does not directly impact operations, it may affect market sentiment, with concerns about whether the funds will be reinvested into the company or used for individual shareholder needs [4].

新乳业 20250627 摘要 新乳业对 2025 年低温产品（尤其是低温鲜奶和特色酸奶）持乐观态度， 将聚焦重点品类和核心渠道以推动全年业绩增长。目前低温产品占比约 为 50%，常温产品占比约为 40%，其中低温鲜奶和特色酸奶各占大盘 约 20%。 公司有信心实现净利率翻倍目标，今年计划提升净利率 0.5 至 1 个百分 点，主要通过产品结构的优化升级，推出新品和更新迭代现有产品，优 化产品结构的毛利率，从而带动整体利润率的提升。 DTC 渠道是公司五年战略中的核心重点发展渠道，目前占比约为 16% 至 17%，利润率更高，大约在 40%左右。公司计划到 2027 年 DTC 业 务规模占比要达到 30%。 公司重视新品研发与推广，每年新品收入占比不低于双位数。今年推出 了多款新品，包括山姆渠道的巴乐酸奶、轻食杯与轻食瓶，以及 24 小 时有机鲜奶。此外，公司与挪威红牛品种合作，也将推出更多新品。 夏进品牌 2024 年表现不佳，主要原因是常温产品比例较高。2025 年 通过人事调整、产品结构改善（导入低温酸奶等新产品）、渠道拓展 （与山姆、库迪咖啡等合作）及区域扩张（"陕耀计划"）等多维度调 整，期待有良 ...

Core Viewpoint - New Dairy aims to maintain expansion amidst market fluctuations, focusing on revenue and profit growth, with a strategic plan to double net profit margin over five years [2][25]. Revenue and Profit Performance - In 2024, New Dairy reported revenue of 10.665 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.93%, primarily due to the exclusion of Chongqing New Niu Han Hong Industrial from consolidated revenue [4]. - Liquid milk revenue for New Dairy in 2024 was 9.836 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.83% year-on-year [4]. - In Q1 2025, New Dairy's revenue grew by 0.42% to 2.625 billion yuan, with net profit increasing by 48.46% to 133 million yuan [5]. Market Trends and Competition - The overall dairy market is facing challenges, with Nielsen IQ reporting a 2.7% decline in dairy sales for 2024 [2]. - Major competitors like Yili and Mengniu are experiencing significant declines in liquid milk revenue, with Yili's liquid milk revenue dropping by 12.32% to 75.003 billion yuan in 2024 [2]. - The low-temperature fresh milk market remains relatively stable, with a 0.4% year-on-year growth in 2024, contrasting with a 7.5% decline in overall liquid milk sales [8][9]. Strategic Initiatives - New Dairy's growth is attributed to its focus on the low-temperature fresh milk segment, which has shown resilience and growth potential [8]. - The company has introduced a variety of products, including high-end fresh milk and low-temperature yogurt, with high-end fresh milk achieving double-digit growth in 2024 [16]. - New Dairy is expanding its distribution channels, including over 500 "24-hour fresh milk" stores and partnerships with major retailers like Sam's Club and Hema [17]. Future Directions - New Dairy is exploring new growth avenues, including expanding into the beverage market and enhancing its product offerings [22]. - The company is also considering international expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia, leveraging resources from New Hope Group [24].

2025.06. 11 本文字数：1377，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 栾立 新饮品赛道的火爆，让原本作为供应商的乳企也按捺不住。新乳业（002946.SZ）在6月10日举行的 投资者大会上宣布，将进军饮品赛道。 在业内看来，近年来越来越多的乳企亲自下场布局新饮品赛道背后，除了消除短期业绩增长焦虑外， 也更希望以此接近善变的年轻消费者们。 2025年投资者大会上，新乳业董事长席刚宣布新乳业将正式进入饮品赛道，此前新乳业的核心业务 以低温鲜奶和酸奶为主，饮品也将成为新乳业的第三大核心业务。 作为国内泛全国化的区域乳企，新乳业是2024年少数实现净利润双位数增长的乳企之一，2024年实 现营收106.7亿元，同比微降2.9%；归母净利润达5.4亿元，同比增长24.8%。 "当下乳企必须跳出存量市场的内卷，在创新和增量中寻找解法。"席刚告诉第一财经记者，从饮品行 业发展趋势看，低糖、无糖茶饮以及部分主打轻体瘦身概念的新茶饮产品增长迅速，因此新乳业计划 从自身较为擅长的低温产品切入饮品赛道。 当天新乳业并未公布具体的市场战略，从现场公布的图片看，现阶段产品多以创新口味和体重管理等 新式含乳饮品为主。席刚表 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Fresh Strategy" has been a fundamental approach for the company, leading to significant growth and new product development in response to market demands [1][4][10]. Group 1: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The dairy product market in China is experiencing a decline, with total production expected to drop to 29.62 million tons in 2024, a 1.9% decrease year-on-year, and liquid milk production seeing its first decline in five years [4]. - Consumer preferences are shifting, with high-end and low-end products both seeing increased demand, indicating a need for companies to develop products that resonate with diverse consumer needs [4][5]. - The company emphasizes that its pricing strategy is not influenced by short-term events like e-commerce promotions but focuses on providing stable quality products for consumers [4]. Group 2: Company Performance and Strategy - Under the "Fresh Strategy," the company achieved a 24.80% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2024, with a net profit margin of 5.15%, and a 48.46% increase in net profit in Q1 2025 [5]. - The company attributes its success to several factors, including a focus on high-end products, expansion into lower-tier markets, continuous innovation, and the promotion of products through new retail channels [5][9]. - The company plans to continue its focus on lower-tier markets, capitalizing on the growth in county-level consumption [9]. Group 3: Product Strategy - The company has evolved its product strategy from a focus on fresh products to a "Three Fresh" strategy, which includes low-temperature fresh milk, low-temperature yogurt, and beverages [10][13]. - The introduction of the "Three Fresh" strategy aims to enhance the company's core business and achieve a doubling of net profit margin within five years [10][14]. - The company believes that the beverage sector presents a significant growth opportunity, particularly in low-temperature cold chain products [14].

Core Viewpoint - The company is preparing for its 2024 Annual General Meeting, focusing on various proposals including financial reports, budget plans, and compensation schemes for executives and board members [1][4][5]. Group 1: Meeting Structure and Procedures - The meeting will be chaired by Chairman Xi Gang, and shareholders will have the right to speak, inquire, and vote on each proposal [1][2]. - Voting will be conducted through a combination of on-site and online methods, with results announced immediately [2][4]. - The meeting will include the election of vote counters and monitors from among the attending shareholders [2][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 1,066,542.35 million yuan for 2024, a decrease of 2.93% compared to 2023 [6][13]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 53,769.09 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 24.80% year-on-year [6][13]. - The total assets as of December 31, 2024, amounted to 887,866.69 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.66% from the previous year [6][7]. Group 3: Financial Indicators - The company’s operating profit was reported at 68,000.76 million yuan, an increase of 33.89% from 2023 [6]. - The basic earnings per share rose to 0.62 yuan, a 24.00% increase compared to the previous year [6][12]. - The asset-liability ratio improved from 70.47% to 64.61%, indicating a reduction of 5.86 percentage points [6][9]. Group 4: Budget and Financing Proposals - The company proposed a financing guarantee limit of 575 million yuan for 2025, which would not exceed 18.82% of the latest audited net assets [21][22]. - The company plans to apply for a comprehensive credit limit from financial institutions for 2025, with specific details to be discussed at the meeting [23].

Industry Growth and Market Performance - The beverage industry is experiencing positive growth, with total production nearing 190 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7% [2] - Revenue growth is at 5%, and profits have increased by over 10%, outpacing the average growth rate of the food and beverage sector [2] - The packaged beverage market is steadily expanding, while the ready-to-drink tea and coffee segment is seeing a slowdown in growth but is still achieving positive results through a "milk tea + coffee" dual-drive strategy [2] Consumer Groups and Demand Characteristics - The primary consumer demographic is shifting towards younger generations, including those born in the 1990s, 2000s, and even 2010s, with three main consumption characteristics: strong willingness to try new flavors, emphasis on emotional value, and an upgrade in health demands [3] - Consumers in first- and second-tier cities show lower price sensitivity and prefer higher-priced products, while those in third- and fourth-tier cities focus on cost-effectiveness, leading to increased sales of large-capacity sugary teas [3] Social Hotspots and Content Ecology - Social media has become a key influence on beverage consumption decisions, with over 470 billion discussions on beverages on Weibo, and more than 5.2 billion interactions [4] - Four major social hotspots emerged throughout the year: health and wellness discussions, cross-industry collaborations, curiosity-driven flavor innovations, and emotional consumption trends [4][5][6] - Health and wellness topics, particularly around low-sugar and nutritious ingredients, saw a 345% increase in interaction [4] Future Trend Predictions - The industry is expected to continue four major trends into 2025: deepening emotional needs, refined health and wellness focus, diversification of IP collaborations, and the emergence of local specialty beverages [7] Brand Strategy Insights - Brands should enhance social media marketing by leveraging celebrity endorsements and creating emotional connections through contextual content [8] - Emphasizing health benefits and regional characteristics can help build differentiated brand recognition [8] - Brands need to adapt to the evolving social ecosystem by innovating content to capture the interests of younger consumers, transitioning from "functional consumption" to a multi-faceted approach that includes "emotion + health + social" elements [8]

Core Insights - The Chinese dairy industry is undergoing significant transformation due to declining demand and oversupply, prompting urgent structural changes [2][3] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Major dairy companies like Yili and Mengniu are experiencing revenue declines, with Yili facing its first revenue drop in nearly 20 years and Mengniu seeing double-digit declines [1][11] - The liquid milk segment is particularly affected, with Yili and Mengniu's sales dropping by approximately 10 billion yuan each, equivalent to the annual revenue of a second-tier dairy company [1] - The supply side is also under pressure, with reports of "culling cows" due to raw milk prices hitting a 15-year low, severely impacting farm operations [1][3] Raw Milk Price Trends - Raw milk prices have been declining for over 40 months, with the current price at 3.08 yuan per kilogram, significantly below the breakeven point for most farms [3][6] - The oversupply situation is exacerbated by increased production, with national milk output reaching 41.97 million tons in 2023, a 6.7% year-on-year increase [6] - The industry is facing a negative cycle of upstream losses, capacity elimination, and supply imbalance, with over 80% of the industry experiencing losses [6][8] Financial Performance of Major Players - Yili's revenue for 2024 is projected at 115.4 billion yuan, an 8.24% decline, with net profit dropping by 18.94% to 8.45 billion yuan [11] - Mengniu's revenue is expected to be 95.4 billion yuan, down 10.09%, with net profit plummeting by 97.83% to 113 million yuan [11] - The liquid milk segment remains the largest category, accounting for 44% of total dairy consumption, but is experiencing a downward sales trend [11] Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - The decline in dairy consumption is not due to reduced volume but rather falling prices, with Yili's liquid milk sales volume increasing by 2.1% despite revenue losses [12][13] - The market is witnessing a "consumption stratification," where high-end dairy products continue to perform well despite overall price declines [16][18] - Low-temperature fresh milk is emerging as a fast-growing segment, with a market size of 39.2 billion yuan in 2023 and a compound annual growth rate of 5.5% from 2018 to 2023 [17] Opportunities for Second-Tier Brands - The popularity of fresh milk and health-oriented products is creating new opportunities for second-tier dairy companies [23] - Local brands with strong cold chain capabilities are challenging national giants in the fresh milk market, as seen with companies like Guangming Dairy and New Dairy [24] - The shift towards value competition and structural consumption upgrades is driving the industry from scale expansion to specialization [25]