上 市 公 司 食品饮料 2025 年 08 月 27 日 新乳业 (002946) ——25H1 点评：低温业务引领增长 净利率提升超预期 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 27 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 18.25 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 21.49/7.89 | | 市净率 | 5.0 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 1.56 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 15,525 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,800.35/12,295.07 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 3.69 | | 资产负债率% | 62.53 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 861/851 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 08-27 09-27 10-27 11-27 12-27 01-27 02-27 03-27 04-27 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese dairy market, dominated by Yili and Mengniu, is facing a downturn in revenue and profit after years of growth, primarily due to overcapacity and changing consumer preferences [4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Yili and Mengniu together hold over 50% of the Chinese dairy market share, with liquid milk being the main revenue driver, accounting for over 80% of their income [4]. - The introduction of sterilization packaging technology in 1997 significantly extended the shelf life of milk, allowing these companies to expand nationally [4]. - The past decade saw continuous growth in the dairy market, but a shift occurred last year with both leading companies experiencing revenue and profit declines [4][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Issues - The relaxation of the two-child policy in 2016 and the COVID-19 pandemic increased health awareness, boosting dairy consumption, but also led to overestimation of future demand and subsequent capacity expansions by producers [5]. - The supply of raw milk has outpaced consumer demand since 2018, resulting in falling prices that have affected profitability for dairy farms [5][6]. - In 2023, the average daily spray-drying of fresh milk by leading dairy companies reached 20,000 tons, indicating a significant surplus [5]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior Changes - Consumer preferences have shifted towards alternatives like tea, coffee, and snacks, leading to a 3% year-on-year decline in dairy consumption [6]. - The retail price of milk has dropped over 5% since the beginning of 2023, prompting companies to increase promotional efforts, which has further strained profit margins [6][7]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - In response to overcapacity, many farms are reducing herd sizes and eliminating less productive cows, with a projected decrease of about 200,000 dairy cows this year [7]. - Yili and Mengniu are exploring partnerships with coffee and tea brands to create customized dairy products, aiming to adapt to changing consumer tastes [9]. - The B2B market for dairy products is estimated to be worth hundreds of billions, but a significant portion is still dominated by imported brands, indicating potential growth opportunities for local companies [9].

Summary of the Conference Call for New Dairy Industry Company Overview - New Dairy Industry has demonstrated strong performance in the low-temperature yogurt and fresh milk markets during the challenging period of the dairy industry from 2021 to 2024, particularly through effective cold chain management and channel innovation [2][3] Key Industry Insights - The low-temperature dairy product market has greater growth potential compared to the ambient temperature market, with low-temperature yogurt CR2 at only 36% and fresh milk market leaders having room for market share growth, while ambient yogurt CR2 has reached 83% [2][4] - The overall dairy industry is facing challenges, but New Dairy Industry's revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is projected to exceed 3% and profit CAGR to reach 22% for 2023-2024, significantly outperforming leading companies like Yili and Mengniu [2][9] Strategic Initiatives - New Dairy Industry has focused on internal growth and aims to increase its net profit margin from approximately 3% in 2023 to about 7% by the end of 2027, indicating confidence in future profitability [2][6] - The company has successfully expanded through acquisitions, notably of Xiajin Dairy and Vipshop, which led to significant revenue and profit growth, although a failed acquisition of a yogurt company resulted in a loss [2][5] Financial Performance - The company has achieved a notable increase in revenue and profitability, driven by a strong focus on low-temperature products, new product launches, and the development of the DOC (Direct-to-Consumer) channel [2][10] - Cost reductions, structural optimization, and expense management have contributed to improved profitability, with net profit margins increasing by 0.3% and 1.12% over the past two years [2][14] Future Outlook - New Dairy Industry plans to maintain a focus on low-temperature products, with expectations of double-digit growth in this segment over the next three years, while ambient products are anticipated to recover alongside industry growth [2][17] - The company aims to reduce its asset-liability ratio by 10 percentage points by 2027, which will further decrease expenses and improve financial stability [2][16] Challenges and Risks - Despite strong management and innovation capabilities, New Dairy Industry faces challenges such as a poor overall consumption environment and the need to optimize internal management to achieve its profit margin goals [2][7][8] Conclusion - New Dairy Industry is positioned as a leading player in the low-temperature dairy market, with a clear strategy for growth and profitability, despite the broader challenges in the dairy industry [2][18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company is positioned to lead in the low-temperature dairy market, with a focus on enhancing profitability through strategic initiatives and product innovation [2][23] - The overall dairy industry in China is experiencing a downturn, but low-temperature dairy products are gaining traction due to their freshness and functional benefits, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [2][10] - The company aims for double-digit compound annual growth in revenue from 2023 to 2027, with a target to double its net profit margin [2][45] Industry Overview - The dairy industry in China is under pressure, with a projected decline in the milk and yogurt market from 2022 to 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of -4.18% [9] - Low-temperature dairy products are outperforming their ambient counterparts, with their market share increasing from 29.97% to 33.82% for yogurt and from 16.53% to 16.91% for fresh milk between 2021 and 2023 [2][18] - The competitive landscape for low-temperature dairy is relatively fragmented, with significant room for market concentration compared to the high concentration in ambient dairy products [2][21] Company Overview - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 10.665 billion in 2024, with a product matrix that includes both ambient and low-temperature dairy products [2][25] - The company has established a national presence through three rounds of acquisitions, differentiating itself from major competitors like Yili and Mengniu [2][29] - The company operates 52 subsidiaries and has a diverse brand portfolio under the "New Hope" umbrella, optimizing resource allocation across its brands [2][25] Growth Drivers - The company is expected to achieve revenue and profit growth in 2023-2024, driven primarily by the performance of low-temperature products [2][58] - The company maintains a strong focus on high-quality milk sources, with approximately 60% of its supply coming from self-owned and joint-venture sources [2][64] - The DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) channel is a core strategic focus, with plans to increase its contribution from 15% to 30% by 2027 [2][78] Profitability Enhancement Path - The company's net profit margin is expected to improve primarily due to an increase in gross margin, supported by an optimized cost structure [2][83] - The company has consistently achieved a double-digit revenue contribution from new products, indicating a strong innovation pipeline [2][68] - The gross margin is projected to rise as the company continues to enhance its product mix and optimize operational efficiencies [2][84]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese dairy industry has made significant advancements in scale, milk yield per cow, and raw milk quality, achieving a transformation from "catching up" to "keeping pace" and even "leading" within approximately twenty years, compared to the century-long industrialization process in developed countries [1][4]. Group 1: Dairy Production and Quality - China's milk production has stabilized among the top four globally, with a 32% increase in milk output from 2012 to 2024, reaching 40.79 million tons, while the number of dairy cows has remained relatively constant [4][5]. - The average milk yield per cow has risen from 5,500 kg/year in 2012 to 9,900 kg/year in 2024, indicating a substantial improvement in dairy farming efficiency [4][5]. - The quality of raw milk produced in China now meets EU standards for fat and protein content, with bacterial counts significantly lower than the EU limit, reflecting enhanced management and hygiene practices [1][12]. Group 2: Industry Transformation and Technological Advancements - The shift towards large-scale farming has increased the proportion of dairy farms with over 100 cows to 78%, marking a transition from small-scale to large-scale operations [5][7]. - The adoption of mechanization and digitalization in dairy farming has led to improved production efficiency and quality control, with 100% mechanization in large-scale farms [7][13]. - The integration of advanced technologies, such as automated monitoring systems and precision feeding, has further enhanced the quality of raw milk and overall farm management [13]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The domestic market for dairy products is projected to grow significantly, with retail sales expected to reach 151.6 billion yuan for liquid milk, 136.7 billion yuan for infant formula, and 99.9 billion yuan for yogurt by 2024 [14]. - Despite the positive trends, the industry faces challenges in demand stimulation and the need for continued support measures to enhance competitiveness and value addition [14]. - The Chinese dairy sector aims to establish a global presence with high-quality milk, positioning itself as a "Chinese model" in the international dairy market [14].

Core Viewpoint - The recent share reduction by UDL, the actual controller of New Dairy Industry, has raised concerns among investors, as it marks the first time the controlling party has sold shares since the company's IPO. This move is speculated to be linked to financial pressures from another company, Flying Horse International, which is facing significant performance compensation obligations [1][3][4]. Group 1: Share Reduction Details - UDL holds 65.07% of New Dairy Industry and plans to reduce its stake by up to 25.82 million shares, representing no more than 3% of the total share capital, potentially amounting to nearly 500 million RMB [1]. - The reduction is not substantial given that UDL and her father, Liu Yonghao, collectively own nearly 80% of the shares [1][3]. - This is the first instance of share reduction since the company's listing, indicating a significant shift in the controlling party's strategy [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Context of Flying Horse International - Flying Horse International, also controlled by Liu Yonghao, announced plans to transfer its controlling rights amid financial difficulties, including a commitment to cover a performance shortfall of approximately 437 million RMB by July 2025 [5][14]. - The company has been struggling with negative cash flow and significant debt, with liabilities reaching 877 million RMB and cash reserves below 100 million RMB [14][15]. - The performance commitments made by the controlling party are under scrutiny, as the company has not met its profit targets since the acquisition [12][13]. Group 3: Market Performance and Valuation - New Dairy Industry's stock price has increased by 24.36% year-to-date, reaching a high valuation with a TTM P/E ratio of 26.15, significantly above the industry average of 19 [18][19]. - The company's revenue from its primary market in Southwest China has declined by 6.51%, raising concerns about brand strength and market position [31]. - The profit growth of New Dairy Industry has been largely attributed to decreasing raw material prices, which may not be sustainable if prices rebound [25][32]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - The timing and amount of UDL's share reduction appear strategically aligned with the financial needs arising from Flying Horse International's obligations, suggesting a potential interconnection between the two companies [16][30]. - New Dairy Industry's high valuation may be difficult to maintain if revenue growth does not stabilize, especially given the competitive pressures from larger industry players [32][33]. - The company has a significant goodwill of 1 billion RMB, which could pose risks if raw milk prices rise or competition intensifies [33].

Core Viewpoint - Liu Chang, daughter of Liu Yonghao, is reducing her stake in New Dairy, with the controlling shareholder Universal Dairy Limited planning to sell up to 25,820,305 shares, representing 3% of the total share capital, due to "corporate funding needs" [2][4]. Group 1: Shareholding and Management - Liu Chang holds 65.07% of New Dairy through Universal Dairy Limited, while Liu Yonghao holds 15.41% through New Hope Investment Group, making them the actual controllers of the company [3][4]. - The reduction in shareholding is not expected to significantly impact the ownership structure of New Dairy [4]. - Liu Chang is actively involved in various leadership roles within the New Hope Group and has been recognized for her efforts in the company [5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - New Dairy reported a revenue of 106.65 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 2.93% year-on-year, primarily due to the exclusion of revenue from a joint venture [8]. - The company's liquid milk revenue increased by 0.83% to 98.36 billion yuan in 2024, despite the overall revenue decline [8]. - In the first quarter of 2025, New Dairy's revenue grew by 0.42% to 26.25 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.33 billion yuan, marking a 48.46% increase year-on-year [10]. Group 3: Market Strategy and Outlook - New Dairy aims to double its net profit over the next five years, focusing on growth despite a contraction in the dairy market [6][10]. - The company is transitioning from a focus on low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt to a broader beverage market strategy [10]. - New Dairy is exploring international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, leveraging resources from the New Hope Group [10].

Core Viewpoint - The controlling shareholder, Universal Dairy Limited (UDL), plans to reduce its stake in New Dairy by up to 3% of the total share capital, amounting to approximately 487 million yuan based on the closing price on June 27, 2023, which has raised market attention given the company's stock price has doubled in the past year [1][2]. Shareholder Reduction Plan - UDL intends to sell 25.82 million shares within three months after the announcement, representing 3% of the total share capital, with a maximum of 8.61 million shares through centralized bidding and 17.21 million shares through block trading [2]. - UDL currently holds 560 million shares, accounting for 65.07% of the total share capital, and the actual controller is Liu Chang, who acquired these shares before the company went public [2]. - This marks the first significant reduction by the controlling shareholder since New Dairy's listing, and if the maximum reduction occurs, UDL's stake will decrease to 62.07%, still maintaining control [2]. Stock Performance and Financials - New Dairy operates primarily in regional markets, focusing on differentiated competition, with over 50% of its products being low-temperature items, surpassing the industry average [3]. - The stock price has seen a significant increase, from a low of 7.6 yuan in August 2024 to a peak of 21.19 yuan in 2025, reflecting a more than 160% increase [3]. - As of June 27, 2023, the stock price was 18.88 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 16.3 billion yuan [3]. - Despite a 2.93% decrease in revenue in 2024, the company reported a 48.46% year-on-year increase in net profit, attributed to product structure optimization and cost control [3]. Strategic Outlook and Market Reaction - New Dairy plans to continue its "Fresh Cube" strategy, focusing on low-temperature product development and expanding its cold chain distribution network by 50,000 new points, aiming to increase the revenue share of low-temperature products to 55% [4]. - Analysts note that while the reduction does not directly impact operations, it may affect market sentiment, with concerns about whether the funds will be reinvested into the company or used for individual shareholder needs [4].

Summary of the Conference Call for New Dairy Industry Company Overview - **Company**: New Dairy Industry - **Focus**: Low-temperature products, particularly fresh milk and specialty yogurt Key Points and Arguments Industry and Product Focus - **Optimistic Outlook**: New Dairy Industry holds an optimistic view on low-temperature products for 2025, focusing on key categories and core channels to drive annual performance growth [2][4] - **Product Composition**: Low-temperature products account for approximately 50% of total sales, with ambient products at about 40%. Within low-temperature products, fresh milk and specialty yogurt each represent around 20% of the market [2][5] Financial Performance and Goals - **Net Profit Margin Target**: The company aims to double its net profit margin by 2025, with a plan to increase it by 0.5 to 1 percentage points this year through product structure optimization and new product launches [2][9] - **Gross Margin Improvement**: In Q1 2025, the gross margin increased by approximately three percentage points, driven by a product structure upgrade and a double-digit growth in low-temperature products, while ambient products saw a decline of about 10% [4][25] Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Strategy - **DTC Channel Growth**: Currently, the DTC channel accounts for about 16% to 17% of total sales, with a higher profit margin of around 40%. The company plans to increase this to 30% by 2027 [2][10] New Product Development - **Focus on Innovation**: New Dairy Industry emphasizes new product development, with new products accounting for at least double-digit revenue each year. Recent launches include various yogurt products and organic fresh milk [2][8] Market Challenges and Adjustments - **Performance of Summer Brand**: The Summer brand underperformed in 2024 due to a high proportion of ambient products. Adjustments in personnel, product structure, and channel expansion are expected to improve performance in 2025 [2][16] - **Pressure on Ambient Products**: Ambient yogurt and milk products face pressure, with slight improvements noted in April and May 2025, but overall growth remains a concern [4][7] Competitive Landscape - **Industry Competition**: The dairy industry is experiencing intense competition, particularly in the ambient milk market, with no significant growth in volume but stable pricing. Local brands are leveraging differentiation strategies to compete [24] Cost Management and Supply Chain - **Cost Control**: The company has a flexible sourcing structure, with only 30% of raw milk sourced from its own farms. This flexibility helps maintain stable revenue and profit growth despite fluctuations in raw milk prices [4][18] Future Outlook - **Long-term Growth**: The company does not provide specific quantitative forecasts but expects overall revenue growth driven by low-temperature categories, which present structural opportunities despite a slowing beverage industry [6] Additional Insights - **Student Milk Market**: The domestic student milk market is contracting, but the company is promoting self-ordering channels, which currently account for about 4% to 5% of main business revenue [28] - **Potential M&A Activity**: While focusing on organic growth, the company remains open to M&A opportunities, particularly in economically developed regions [30] Product Development Directions - **Innovation in Dairy Products**: The company is exploring new directions in product development, including unique milk sources and innovative flavors in low-temperature yogurt [31] Dividend and Share Buyback Plans - **Dividend Policy**: The company plans to maintain a dividend level at least equal to that of 2024, with specific plans to be announced after the semi-annual report [32]

Core Viewpoint - New Dairy aims to maintain expansion amidst market fluctuations, focusing on revenue and profit growth, with a strategic plan to double net profit margin over five years [2][25]. Revenue and Profit Performance - In 2024, New Dairy reported revenue of 10.665 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.93%, primarily due to the exclusion of Chongqing New Niu Han Hong Industrial from consolidated revenue [4]. - Liquid milk revenue for New Dairy in 2024 was 9.836 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.83% year-on-year [4]. - In Q1 2025, New Dairy's revenue grew by 0.42% to 2.625 billion yuan, with net profit increasing by 48.46% to 133 million yuan [5]. Market Trends and Competition - The overall dairy market is facing challenges, with Nielsen IQ reporting a 2.7% decline in dairy sales for 2024 [2]. - Major competitors like Yili and Mengniu are experiencing significant declines in liquid milk revenue, with Yili's liquid milk revenue dropping by 12.32% to 75.003 billion yuan in 2024 [2]. - The low-temperature fresh milk market remains relatively stable, with a 0.4% year-on-year growth in 2024, contrasting with a 7.5% decline in overall liquid milk sales [8][9]. Strategic Initiatives - New Dairy's growth is attributed to its focus on the low-temperature fresh milk segment, which has shown resilience and growth potential [8]. - The company has introduced a variety of products, including high-end fresh milk and low-temperature yogurt, with high-end fresh milk achieving double-digit growth in 2024 [16]. - New Dairy is expanding its distribution channels, including over 500 "24-hour fresh milk" stores and partnerships with major retailers like Sam's Club and Hema [17]. Future Directions - New Dairy is exploring new growth avenues, including expanding into the beverage market and enhancing its product offerings [22]. - The company is also considering international expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia, leveraging resources from New Hope Group [24].