Report Overview - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report - Report Date: November 16, 2025 - Analyst: Liang Kefang - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0019111 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, fuel oil prices continued to decline following crude oil, with low-sulfur fuel oil remaining relatively stronger than high-sulfur fuel oil both domestically and internationally. For high-sulfur fuel oil, with high export volumes from the Middle East, the spot market's transaction premium remained weak. As demand for shipping and power generation entered the off-season, the short-term weakness of high-sulfur fuel oil may not be reversed. For low-sulfur fuel oil, refinery maintenance in Brazil and European refineries' shift to deep processing of heavy components to increase gasoline and diesel production led to a decrease in spot volumes flowing to the Asia-Pacific region, and the spot transaction premium began to gradually recover. Temporarily, even if some refineries end maintenance at the end of the month, as long as gasoline and diesel profits remain at current levels, European refineries may still convert a large amount of heavy components into gasoline and diesel, reducing exports to the Asia-Pacific and limiting the overall market's spot supply. Therefore, the strength of low-sulfur fuel oil relative to high-sulfur fuel oil is expected to continue. - Valuation: FU: 2550 - 2800; LU: 3150 - 3350 - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: Fuel oil prices will remain weak in the short term, with LU remaining relatively strong. 2) Inter-period: The LU monthly spread structure has been reversed and will remain the same before the number of warehouse receipts increases significantly. 3) Inter-variety: FU cracking will fluctuate at a high level; the LU - FU spread will gradually rebound in the short term. [4] Summary by Directory Supply - Refinery Operations: Data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries, independent refineries, and major refineries from 2016 - 2025 are presented, including weekly data on the capacity utilization rate of the crude oil atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit [6]. - Global Refinery Maintenance: Data on the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025 are provided [9][11][13][14]. - Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume: Data on China's monthly fuel oil production, domestic commercial volume, and low-sulfur fuel oil production from 2018 - 2025 are presented [18][19]. Demand - Domestic and International Fuel Oil Demand Data: Data on China's monthly marine fuel oil actual consumption, Singapore's monthly fuel oil bunker sales, and China's monthly fuel oil apparent consumption from 2018 - 2025 are provided [23]. Inventory - Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory: Data on Singapore's heavy oil inventory, European ARA fuel oil inventory, Fujairah's heavy distillate inventory, and the weekly residual fuel oil inventory in the US from 2018 - 2025 are presented [27][28][30]. Price and Spread - Asia-Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, Singapore, and the Mediterranean from 2018 - 2025 are provided [34][37][38]. - European Regional Spot FOB Prices: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in the Northwest Europe, Mediterranean, US Gulf, and New York Harbor from 2018 - 2025 are presented [44][45]. - Paper and Derivative Prices: Data on the high-sulfur and low-sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore from 2024 - 2025 are provided, as well as data on the continuous contracts of LU and FU from 2021 - 2025 [47][48][51]. - Fuel Oil Spot Spread: Data on the Singapore high-sulfur and low-sulfur spreads, and viscosity spreads from 2018 - 2025 are presented [57]. - Global Fuel Oil Cracking Spread: Data on the Singapore high-sulfur and low-sulfur cracking spreads, and Northwest Europe 3.5% and 1% cracking spreads from 2019 - 2025 are presented [59][60][61]. - Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread: Data on the Singapore and Northwest Europe high-sulfur and low-sulfur M1 - M2 and M2 - M3 monthly spreads from 2022 - 2025 are presented [63]. Import and Export - Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on China's monthly fuel oil import and export volumes (excluding biodiesel) from 2018 - 2025 are presented [68][71]. - Global High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on the weekly changes in global high-sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in China, the Middle East, the US, Singapore + Malaysia, India, and Northwest Europe from 2018 - 2025 are presented [73]. - Global Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on the weekly changes in global low-sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in Singapore + Malaysia, China, the US, the Mediterranean + Black Sea, Northwest Europe, and the Middle East from 2018 - 2025 are presented [75]. Futures Market Indicators and Internal-External Spreads - Review: During the week, Asia-Pacific fuel oil prices continued to decline, and the Zhoushan market followed the same trend. In terms of spreads, the domestic FU and LU were relatively weaker than the international market, and the spreads began to shrink. - Logic: For FU, the short positions still outnumbered the long positions, causing FU to perform relatively weaker than the international spot market, and the spread continued to shrink. For LU, the number of warehouse receipts remained stable after the delivery, and the internal-external spread may end the convergence in the short term. Data on the internal-external spreads of 380 and 0.5% spot, FU main contract, FU continuous contract, and LU continuous contract from November 10 - 14, 2025 are presented [78][79][80]. - Spot Market Internal-External Spread: Data on the internal-external spreads of 380 and 0.5% spot from 2021 - 2025 are presented [83][84]. - Futures Market Internal-External Spread: Data on the internal-external spreads of FU main contract, FU continuous contract, and LU continuous contract from 2021 - 2025 are presented [88][89]. - FU and LU Open Interest and Trading Volume Changes: Data on the trading volume and open interest of fuel oil main continuous contract, continuous contract, low-sulfur fuel oil continuous contract, and continuous contract from 2020 - 2025 are presented [92][94][97][100]. - FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes: Data on the quantity changes of FU and LU warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025 are presented [103][104].