燃料油周报 （11.17-11.21） 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 新加坡11月从西方市场套利的低硫燃料油到货量预计为290-300万吨，高于10月的250-260万吨。但贸易 消息人士称，高昂运费导致的套利经济性不可行或将导致12月到港量收紧。供应收紧预期影响下，低硫船用 燃料油价格逐步上涨，现货价差也由贴水转为溢价。不过贸易消息人士表示，由于即期供应充足，低硫燃料 油基本面短期内进一步大幅上行的空间有限。亚洲高硫燃料油市场一直受到下游船用燃料需要的强劲支撑。 此外，部分中国炼油厂在采购高硫燃料油作为原料，虽然不能说中国市场的需求表现极佳，但仍保持着相当 稳定的水平。国际原油价格或维持震荡，预计燃料油价格也继续弱势波动为主。操作上：高硫短线2450-2650 区间操作，低硫短线2950-3150区间操作。 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils have no significant changes. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to tighten, while the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil remains relatively abundant. The upstream crude oil price fluctuates, and it is expected that fuel oil will follow the same trend. The FU2601 is expected to trade in the range of 2580 - 2620, and the LU2601 is expected to trade in the range of 3260 - 3300 [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The fundamentals of fuel oil are neutral. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has strengthened slightly, and the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to sufficient short - term supply. The basis shows that the spot is at a premium to the futures. The Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased by 190,000 barrels in the week of November 12, reaching 20.879 million barrels. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat. The high - sulfur main position is short, with short positions decreasing; the low - sulfur main position is long, changing from short to long [3]. 2. Long - Short Focus - **Likely to be Bullish**: Russian fuel oil export restrictions and the cancellation of the US - Russia talks and the sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil is under pressure [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Fundamentals**: The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has strengthened slightly, and the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to sufficient short - term supply, which is neutral. - **Basis**: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 11 yuan/ton, and that of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is 32 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. - **Inventory**: The Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of November 12 was 20.879 million barrels, a decrease of 190,000 barrels, which is neutral. - **Market Chart**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat, which is neutral. - **Main Position**: The high - sulfur main position is short, with short positions decreasing, which is bearish; the low - sulfur main position is long, changing from short to long, which is bullish [3]. 4. Spread Data - The report does not provide specific analysis of spread data, only shows the high - and low - sulfur futures spread chart. 5. Inventory Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory on November 12 was 20.879 million barrels, a decrease of 190,000 barrels compared to the previous period. The historical inventory data from September 3 to November 12 is also provided, showing the inventory changes during this period [3][8].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2025年11月16日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 本周观点总结 01 供应 02 需求 03 库存 04 价格及价差 05 炼厂开工 全球炼厂检修 国内炼厂产量与商品量 国内外燃料油需求数据 全球燃料油现货库存 亚太区域现货FOB价格 欧洲区域现货FOB价格 美国地区燃料油现货价格 纸货与衍生品价格 燃料油现货价差 全球燃料油裂解价差 全球燃料油纸货月差 进出口 06 国内燃料油进出口数据 全球高硫燃料油进出口数据 全球低硫燃料油进出口数据 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 本周燃料油、低硫燃料油观点：下跌趋势中低硫继续偏强 | 观点 | 本周燃料油价格仍然在跟随原油持续下跌，但在下跌过程中海内外的低硫相对强于高硫。高硫方面，在中东出口量维持高位的情况下，现货 市场的成交升贴水仍然弱势，叠加当下船燃、发电等需求板 ...

综述 1 本周燃料油、低硫燃料油观点：价格回撤，LU强势明显 | 观点 | 本周燃料油价格维持反弹趋势，价格逐步回到月初水平。高硫方面，现货市场的成交升贴水没有明显走强，可能暗示市场没有明显的供应缺 大部分检修的炼厂都将在11月底结束检修，这将意味着外盘供应将逐步上升，外盘低硫有可能在未来逐步转弱。而对于LU市场来说，近期市 | | --- | --- | | | 口，但仍需观察俄罗斯出口在炼厂大规模下线背景下的出口情况，仍有一定概率引发市场抢购合规现货从而带动价格回涨。低硫方面，前期 | | | 场传言国营炼厂开始将一部分低硫出口配额转为成品油出口配额，这将导致未来港口现货供应下降，从而使得盘面缺乏可交割货源，因此LU | | | 价格近期表现持续强于FU。但需要注意的是，尽管来自国内炼厂的供应将下降，而随着国内价格的上升，国内部分贸易商可能提升进口量来 | | | 捕捉进口利润，这将对价格上行趋势形成阻力。 | | 估值 | FU：2600~2800 | | | LU：3150~3350 | | | 1）单边：FU短期保持弱势，LU仍然偏强。 | | 策略 | 2）跨期：LU月差结构已经被扭转，在仓单数量 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil continued to decline and reached the lowest point of the year. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the impact of the decline in Russian exports still exists, but most refineries plan to end maintenance at the end of October. If the operating rate of Russian refineries recovers, the high - sulfur market may face negative factors. Meanwhile, the crude oil import quotas of domestic local refineries are gradually being consumed, and some small and medium - sized refineries may increase fuel oil imports in the future, which needs continuous attention. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the external market has shown little fluctuation recently. Although the number of domestic LU warehouse receipts is gradually decreasing, the opening of the internal - external price difference will continue to attract foreign spot goods for delivery, which will significantly suppress the near - month valuation, and the monthly spread will remain weak in the near future [4]. - Valuation: FU is valued at 2650 - 2800, and LU is valued at 3050 - 3350 [4]. - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: FU and LU have entered a low - price range, and the short - term downward space is relatively limited. 2) Inter - period: There is a probability that the LU monthly spread will continue to decline. 3) Inter - variety: The FU crack spread fluctuates at a high level; the LU - FU price difference may still shrink slightly in the short term [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Supply - Multiple charts show the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (including overall, independent, and major refineries), the maintenance volume of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units, as well as the production and commercial volume of domestic refinery fuel oil over different years [6][10][20]. Demand - Charts present the demand data of fuel oil at home and abroad, including the actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the sales volume of fuel oil in Singapore, and the apparent consumption of fuel oil in China over different years [23]. Inventory - Charts show the global fuel oil spot inventory, including the heavy oil inventory in Singapore, the fuel oil inventory in European ARA, the heavy distillate inventory in Fujairah, and the residual fuel oil inventory in the US over different years [26][28][29]. Price and Spread - **Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Include the FOB prices of fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific region (such as in Singapore and Fujairah), the European region (such as in Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean), and the US region (such as in the US Gulf and New York Harbor) over different years [34][36][43]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: Show the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of fuel oil futures contracts such as FU and LU over different years [46][47]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spread**: Include the high - low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore [56][57]. - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spread**: Present the crack spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe [60][62]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread**: Show the monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe [64]. Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Charts show the import and export quantities of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China over different years [69][71]. - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Present the weekly changes in the import and export quantities of global high - sulfur fuel oil in different regions [73]. - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Show the weekly changes in the import and export quantities of global low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions [75]. Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Price Difference - **Internal - External Price Difference in the Spot Market**: Include the internal - external price differences of 380 - grade and 0.5% fuel oil, as well as the internal - external price differences between LU and Singapore [82][83][85]. - **Internal - External Price Difference in the Futures Market**: Include the internal - external price differences between FU and Singapore (such as FU main contract, FU continuous contract 1) and between LU and Singapore (such as LU continuous contract, LU continuous contract 1, LU continuous contract 2) [86][87]. - **Changes in the Positions and Trading Volumes of FU and LU**: Show the trading volumes and positions of fuel oil main contract, continuous contract 1, low - sulfur fuel oil continuous contract, and continuous contract 1 over different years [90][92][95]. - **Changes in the Warehouse Receipt Quantities of FU and LU**: Present the changes in the warehouse receipt quantities of fu and lu over different years [102][103].

2025 年 10 月 15 日 究 燃料油：价格重心来到年内低位，短期弱势仍 在 低硫燃料油：持续下跌，外盘现货高低硫价差 小幅反弹 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 燃料油基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨 跌 | | 昨日结算份 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2511 | 元/吨 | 2,750 | -1. 19% | | 2.763 | -1.11% | | | | FU2512 | 元/吨 | 2,717 | -1. 11% | | 2,733 | -0.62% | | | | LU2511 | 元/吨 | 3.191 | -0. 84% | | 3.204 | -0.50% | | | | LU2512 | 元/吨 | 3.203 | -0. 50% | | 3.216 | -0.74% | | | | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 期货 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, fuel oil prices rose significantly, with the price center gradually reaching a two - month high. For high - sulfur fuel oil, market transactions improved slightly, the premium increased, Middle East shipments remained high, but Russian exports continued to decline. Due to recent attacks and sanctions, nearly one - third of Russian refinery capacity was offline, so supply factors still supported high - sulfur fuel oil. If Russian exports continue to face obstacles, high - sulfur fuel oil valuations may continue to rise. For low - sulfur fuel oil, there is no obvious supply gap in the Asia - Pacific region, and spot shipments are normal. The August Singapore bunker sales data was good, providing some support on the demand side. On the domestic market, the quota issue has been fully priced in by the market, but inventory continued to accumulate in the Zhoushan area, and there were still warehouse receipts on the futures market. In the short term, the price may be relatively weaker than that of high - sulfur fuel oil. - Valuation: FU is estimated to be in the range of 2700 - 3000, and LU is estimated to be in the range of 3400 - 3650. - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: FU will continue to be strong in the short term, and LU will mainly follow the upward trend. 2) Inter - period: FU and LU will maintain the current structure. 3) Inter - variety: FU cracking will fluctuate at a high level; the LU - FU spread may still contract slightly in the short term. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Refinery Operations**: The document presents the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil: atmospheric and vacuum distillation), independent refineries, and major refineries over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [6] - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: It shows the maintenance volumes of global CDU devices, hydrocracking devices, FCC devices, and coking devices over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [9][11][13][14] - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commodity Volume**: It shows the monthly production of fuel oil in China, the monthly production of low - sulfur fuel oil in Chinese refineries, and the monthly domestic commercial volume of fuel oil over different years, but no specific analysis is provided. [20] 3.2 Demand - **Domestic and Foreign Fuel Oil Demand Data**: It shows the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the monthly sales volume of fuel oil bunkering in Singapore, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China over different years, but no specific analysis is provided. [23] 3.3 Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: It shows the heavy oil inventory in Singapore, the fuel oil inventory in European ARA, the heavy distillate inventory in Fujairah, and the residual fuel oil inventory in the US over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [26][28][29] 3.4 Price and Spread - **Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, 0.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, 3.5% fuel oil in Singapore, 3.5% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, 1% fuel oil in north - western Europe, and 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [34][35][36][38][39][41] - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in north - western Europe, 3.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, high - sulfur fuel oil cargo prices in the New York Harbor, 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, and low - sulfur straight - run fuel oil prices in the USAC over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [43][44] - **US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, high - sulfur fuel oil cargo prices in the New York Harbor, 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, and low - sulfur straight - run fuel oil prices in the USAC over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [44] - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: It shows the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in north - western Europe, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil swaps, Singapore 380 bunker swaps, and domestic futures contracts (FU and LU) over different time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [47][48][51] - **Fuel Oil Spot Spreads**: It shows the Singapore high - low sulfur spread, Singapore viscosity spread, and other spreads over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [57][58][59] - **Global Fuel Oil Cracking Spreads**: It shows the cracking spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and north - western Europe over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [62][63][64] - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spreads**: It shows the monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and north - western Europe over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [66] 3.5 Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China over different years, but no specific analysis is provided. [71][73] - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions, but no specific analysis is provided. [75] - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions, but no specific analysis is provided. [77] 3.6 Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - **Review**: This week, Asia - Pacific fuel oil prices rose significantly, and the Zhoushan market moved in tandem. In terms of spreads, domestic FU and LU were relatively stronger than the international market, and the premium continued to recover. - **Logic**: This week, spot prices at home and abroad rebounded significantly. On the domestic market, FU started to rebound from the bottom, and the internal - external spread continued to repair. The same situation occurred for LU. Due to the relatively small new batch of quotas, the domestic LU maintained a stable spread with the international spot market. [80] - **Internal - External Spreads**: It shows the internal - external spreads of 380 spot, 0.5% spot, and domestic futures contracts (FU and LU) against Singapore over different dates, but no specific analysis is provided. [81] 3.7 FU and LU Position and Volume Changes - It shows the trading volumes and open interest of fuel oil main - continuous contracts, fuel oil continuous contracts, low - sulfur fuel oil continuous contracts, and related sub - contracts over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [94][96][99] 3.8 FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes - It shows the changes in the number of FU and LU warehouse receipts over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [105][106]

Group 1 - Fuel oil futures main contract showed weak fluctuations, closing at 2784.00 yuan with a decline of 1.21% [1] - Demand remains sluggish in the Asian fuel oil market, with Northeast Asian refineries experiencing slower sales [1] - Taiwan's Formosa Petrochemical's 76,000 barrels per day residue fluid catalytic cracking unit is under maintenance until the end of October, impacting supply [1] Group 2 - High sulfur fuel oil prices are influenced by ongoing sanctions and recent attacks on Russian refineries, leading to a significant increase in high sulfur exports to India [2] - Singapore's fuel oil inventory has decreased by 4.2%, while ARA and Fujairah inventories have also seen reductions [2] - The EU is expected to introduce the 19th round of sanctions against Russia in the coming weeks, which will be a key focus for high sulfur fuel oil [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: August 17, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Liang Kefang [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - This week, fuel oil prices continued to decline until a rebound over the weekend. Middle East high-sulfur fuel oil exports have been increasing in August, while imports in the Middle East and China remain low due to weak power generation and refining demand, resulting in weak high-sulfur prices in Asia. In the low-sulfur market, short-term spot supplies in the Asia-Pacific region are still abundant. Kuwait and Indonesia have increased their low-sulfur exports to the Asia-Pacific this month, and Japanese refineries are gradually resuming production, which will further increase spot supplies and suppress spot prices in the Asia-Pacific. In the domestic market, the newly issued export quotas are the core factor affecting the market trend. If the quota is too low, it may support short-term prices; if the quota increases significantly year-on-year, it means that future port spot supplies will remain abundant, and the prices of near-month contracts will continue to be suppressed [4]. - Valuation: FU: 2650 - 2800; LU: 3400 - 3500 [4]. - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: Follow crude oil and remain weak in the short term. 2) Inter - term: The contango structure of the near - end of FU and LU will continue. 3) Inter - variety: The FU crack spread has fallen to the historical average but may still have a small downward space; the LU - FU spread will remain high in the short term [4]. Summary by Directory Supply - Refinery Operation: The report presents data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil: atmospheric and vacuum distillation), independent refineries, and major refineries over the years [6]. - Global Refinery Maintenance: Data on the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 to 2025 are provided [9][11][13][14]. - Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume: Data on the monthly production of fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and domestic commercial volume of fuel oil in China from 2018 to 2025 are shown [20]. Demand - Domestic and Foreign Fuel Oil Demand Data: Data on the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the sales volume of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore, and the apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 to 2025 are presented [23]. Inventory - Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory: Data on the spot inventories of fuel oil in Singapore, European ARA, Fujairah, and the United States from 2018 to 2025 are provided [27][29][30]. Price and Spread - Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, Singapore, and other places from 2018 to 2025 are presented [35][36][37]. - European Regional Spot FOB Prices: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, Northwest Europe, and other places from 2018 to 2025 are provided [39][40][42]. - US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Prices: Data on the spot prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, New York Harbor, and other places from 2018 to 2025 are presented [45]. - Paper and Derivative Prices: Data on the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil swaps, and Singapore 380 bunker fuel swaps are provided [48]. - Fuel Oil Spot Spread: Data on the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and the viscosity spread in Singapore from 2018 to 2025 are presented [57][59]. - Global Fuel Oil Crack Spread: Data on the crack spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2019 to 2025 are provided [61][63][64]. - Global Fuel Oil Paper Month Spread: Data on the month spreads of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2023 to 2025 are presented [68][69]. Import and Export - Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 to 2025 are presented [73][75]. - Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global high - sulfur fuel oil in different regions from 2018 to 2025 are presented [78]. - Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions from 2018 to 2025 are presented [80]. Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - Spot Market Internal - External Spreads: Data on the internal - external spreads of 380 spot, 0.5% spot, FU, and LU against the Singapore market from 2021 to 2025 are presented [83][87][90]. - Analysis of Spreads: This week, both domestic and foreign spot and futures prices generally declined. The weakness of FU led to a narrowing of its premium over the external market. For low - sulfur fuel oil, due to increased production and exports from domestic refineries and poor bunker demand, the number of domestic warehouse receipts remained high, and LU weakened compared with the previous period, resulting in a gradual decline in its premium over Singapore spot [84]. - FU and LU Position and Volume Changes: Data on the trading volumes and open interests of fuel oil main - continuous, low - sulfur fuel oil continuous, and their corresponding first - month contracts from 2020 to 2025 are presented [94][96][99]. - FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes: Data on the quantity changes of FU and LU warehouse receipts from 2020 to 2025 are presented [105][106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil will mainly show a narrow - range fluctuation, with LU stronger than FU. Given the current high global refinery operating rate, the supply of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil will increase marginally. The recovery of Middle Eastern refineries has significantly boosted the global high - sulfur supply, and the positive factors from marine fuel and power generation demands have been fully priced in the market. Recently, the high - sulfur transactions in the Singapore market have weakened. For low - sulfur fuel oil, although the maintenance of Brazilian refineries has basically ended, some spot goods have not been exported to the Asia - Pacific region, so the short - term low - sulfur price will remain stable. In the domestic market, the production scheduling of major refineries is gradually recovering. With sufficient quotas, exports in June have increased significantly, and it is expected that the scale will remain stable in July and August. The domestic low - sulfur fuel oil will continue to weaken month - on - month [4]. - Valuation: FU is in the range of 2800 - 3000, and LU is in the range of 3500 - 3700 [4]. - Strategies: (1) Unilateral: Follow the upward - trending oscillation of crude oil. (2) Inter - period: The back structure of FU and LU will continue, but the increase in near - term supply will keep the monthly spread at a low level. (3) Inter - variety: The FU cracking spread has fallen to the historical average level; the LU - FU spread will remain high in the short term [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Supply - **Refinery Operating Rate**: The document presents the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil: atmospheric and vacuum distillation), independent refineries, and major refineries from 2016 - 2025 [6]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: It shows the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025 [9][11][13][14]. - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume**: It includes the monthly production of fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and domestic commercial volume of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025 [20]. 3.2 Demand - **Domestic and Foreign Fuel Oil Demand Data**: It shows the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the monthly sales of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025 [23]. 3.3 Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: It includes the inventory data of heavy oil in Singapore, fuel oil in European ARA, heavy distillates in Fujairah, and residual fuel oil in the US from 2018 - 2025 [27][29][30]. 3.4 Price and Spread - **Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore, Fujairah, and other places from 2018 - 2025 [35][36][37]. - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It includes the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, north - western Europe, and other places, as well as the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, and the cargo price of high - sulfur fuel oil in New York Harbor from 2018 - 2025 [39][40][42][44][45]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: It shows the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in north - western Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of FU and LU contracts from 2021 - 2025 [47][49][52]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spread**: It includes the viscosity spread and high - low sulfur spread in Singapore from 2018 - 2025 [55][56]. - **Global Fuel Oil Cracking Spread**: It shows the cracking spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and north - western Europe from 2019 - 2025 [58][60][61]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread**: It includes the monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and north - western Europe from 2022 - 2025 [65][66]. 3.5 Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 [71][73][74]. - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global high - sulfur fuel oil in different regions [76]. - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions [78]. 3.6 Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - **Internal - External Spreads in the Spot and Futures Markets**: It shows the internal - external spreads of 380 and 0.5% fuel oil in the spot and futures markets, as well as the internal - external spreads of FU and LU contracts from 2021 - 2025 [81][85][86][87][88][89]. - **Changes in FU and LU Positions and Trading Volumes**: It shows the trading volumes and positions of fuel oil main contracts, low - sulfur fuel oil contracts from 2020 - 2025 [91][93][96][98][99]. - **Changes in FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantities**: It shows the changes in the warehouse receipt quantities of FU and LU from 2020 - 2025 [102][103].