Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Fuel oil rebounded in the night session and may remain strong in the short term [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil prices are still high, and the price spread between high and low sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to decline [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Changes**: - FU2605 closed at 4,464 yuan/ton, up 1.62% from the previous day, and the settlement price was 4,439 yuan/ton, up 2.14% [1] - FU2606 closed at 4,412 yuan/ton, up 2.14%, and the settlement price was 4,376 yuan/ton, up 2.72% [1] - LU2605 closed at 5,157 yuan/ton, up 1.80%, and the settlement price was 5,109 yuan/ton, up 1.83% [1] - LU2606 closed at 6,170 yuan/ton, up 1.83%, and the settlement price was 6,097 yuan/ton, up 9.15% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - The trading volume of FU2605 was 525,750 lots, a decrease of 65,133 lots, and the open interest was 207,619 lots, a decrease of 8,775 lots [1] - The trading volume of FU2606 was 71,318 lots, an increase of 9,920 lots, and the open interest was 48,477 lots, a decrease of 4,393 lots [1] - The trading volume of LU2605 was 92,116 lots, an increase of 369 lots, and the open interest was 49,649 lots, a decrease of 7,245 lots [1] - The trading volume of LU2606 was 4,919 lots, a decrease of 3,396 lots, and the open interest was 9,117 lots, a decrease of 1,836 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: - The total warehouse receipts of fuel oil in the market were 69,040 tons, and the warehouse receipts of low-sulfur fuel oil were 51,960 tons with no change [1] - **Spot Prices**: - In Singapore FOB, the high-sulfur (3.5%S) price was 712.4 dollars/ton, up 8.46% from the previous day, and the low-sulfur (0.5%S) price was 846.2 dollars/ton, up 4.97% [1] - In Singapore Bunker, the high-sulfur price was 720.0 dollars/ton, up 8.93%, and the low-sulfur price was 855.0 dollars/ton, up 5.30% [1] - In Fujeirah Bunker, the high-sulfur price was 720.0 dollars/ton, up 5.11%, and the low-sulfur price was 875.0 dollars/ton, up 2.94% [1] - In Zhoushan Bunker, the high-sulfur price was 743.0 dollars/ton, up 5.69%, and the low-sulfur price was 860.0 dollars/ton, up 1.78% [1] - In Shanghai Bunker, the high-sulfur price was 745.0 dollars/ton, up 5.67%, and the low-sulfur price was 860.0 dollars/ton, up 1.78% [1] - In Tokyo Bunker, the high-sulfur price was 870.0 dollars/ton, up 1.75%, and the low-sulfur price was 910.0 dollars/ton, up 1.11% [1] - In South Korea Bunker, the high-sulfur price was 890.0 dollars/ton, up 1.71%, and the low-sulfur price was 980.0 dollars/ton with no change [1] - **Price Spreads**: - The spread of FU05 - 06 was 52 yuan/ton, and the settlement spread was 63 yuan/ton, with a difference of 11 yuan/ton [1] - The spread of LU05 - 06 was -1,013 yuan/ton, and the settlement spread was -988 yuan/ton, with a difference of 25 yuan/ton [1] - The spread of LU05 - FU05 was 693 yuan/ton, and the settlement spread was 670 yuan/ton, with a difference of -23 yuan/ton [1] - The spread of FU2605 - Singapore MOPS (3.5%S) was -459.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 313.1 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - The spread of LU2605 - Singapore MOPS (0.5%S) was -690.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 186.0 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - The spread of Singapore MOPS (0.5%S - 3.5%S) was 133.8 dollars/ton, a decrease of 15.5 dollars/ton from the previous day [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of fuel oil is 0, and the trend intensity of low-sulfur fuel oil is 0. The range of trend intensity is [-2, 2], with -2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, global fuel oil prices continued to decline, approaching the levels at the beginning of the conflict. Due to increased exports from the Middle East and Russia, the spot market has been effectively replenished. Before the geopolitical issues further escalate, the market will reverse the previous risk premium. The price and crack spread of high - sulfur fuel oil declined significantly this week [4]. - In the long - and medium - term, for the price to continue to fall, the Middle East's exports need to gradually recover, or Russia's exports need to reach a historical high. As time passes, during the peak seasons of marine fuel and power generation, prices may regain upward momentum [4]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, in addition to Kuwait being blocked, some countries' low - sulfur exports are also showing a downward trend, especially Brazil, which has maintained stable exports to the Asian market. This will keep the Asia - Pacific spot market tight. However, the east - west arbitrage window has shown signs of opening, which may attract more European spot goods to flow to Asia [4]. - In China, although market news indicates that major refineries tend to increase low - sulfur production in the future, actual processing data shows that some refineries' operations are still declining due to raw material issues. Whether sufficient supply can be maintained in April remains highly uncertain. The low - sulfur marine fuel spot in the domestic bonded area and the deliverable supply on the LU futures may remain tight in April [4]. - The estimated price range for FU is 4300 - 4900, and for LU is 5100 - 5800 [4]. - Investment strategies include: 1) Unilateral: Fuel oil prices may still correct in the short term, but the supply gap will keep prices at a high level. 2) Inter - period: The inter - period spread structure of FU and LU has returned to backwardation. As long as the spot supply gap caused by the conflict persists, the backwardation structure will continue. 3) Inter - variety: The crack spreads of FU and LU have temporarily fallen to a low level; there is a certain probability that the LU - FU spread will continue to narrow [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply - **Refinery Operations**: The report presents the capacity utilization rates of independent refineries, major refineries, and general refineries in China, as well as the maintenance volumes of global hydrocracking units, FCC units, coking units, and CDU units from 2018 - 2026 [6][7][8][11]. - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commodity Volume**: It shows the monthly production, domestic commodity volume, and low - sulfur production of Chinese refineries from 2021 - 2026 [15]. Demand - **Domestic and International Fuel Oil Demand Data**: It includes the monthly sales volume of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore, the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China, and the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China from 2019 - 2026 [18]. Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: It shows the inventory data of heavy oil in Singapore, fuel oil in European ARA, heavy distillates in Fujairah, and residual fuel oil in the US from 2018 - 2026 [21][22]. Price and Spread - **Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It presents the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore and Fujairah from 2018 - 2026 [26]. - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean from 2018 - 2026 [28]. - **US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Prices**: It includes the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, the cargo price of high - sulfur fuel oil in New York Harbor, and the price of low - sulfur straight - run fuel oil in USAC from 2018 - 2026 [30]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: It shows the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe, Singapore, and the prices of FU and LU futures contracts from 2021 - 2026 [32][33][35]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spread**: It includes the high - and low - sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore from 2018 - 2026 [42]. - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the crack spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2026 [43]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Month Spread**: It presents the month spreads of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe [44]. Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 [48][49]. - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It includes the weekly changes in global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes, with data on major importing and exporting regions [51][53]. - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes, with data on major importing and exporting regions [54][56]. Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - **Review**: Recently, the domestic - foreign spot price spread has continued to decline, and the spread between futures prices and foreign spot prices has also been gradually narrowing [59]. - **Logic**: With the current geopolitical conflict in a stable phase, as foreign spot prices decline, domestic futures prices are gradually reversing more risk premiums. The relatively sufficient deliverable supply has led to a greater decline in the prices of domestic FU and LU, causing the domestic - foreign price spread to continue to narrow [60]. - **Price Spread Data**: It provides the domestic - foreign price spreads of 380 spot, 0.5% spot, and various futures contracts on different dates in March 2026 [61]. FU and LU Position and Volume Changes - It shows the position and volume changes of FU and LU from 2020 - 2026, including main contracts, continuous contracts, and first - month contracts [69][70][72]. FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes - It shows the changes in the warehouse receipt quantities of FU and LU from 2020 - 2026 [81][82].

Group 1 - Fuel oil futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 2826.00 yuan, with a current price of 2800.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 4.09% [1] - The supply of high-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is limited due to tight supply from tugboats, leading to a continuous increase in spot price differentials [2] - Singapore's fuel oil inventory has decreased to its lowest level in eight months, with a 14.7% drop to 19.94 million barrels (approximately 3.14 million tons) as of January 28, indicating a second consecutive week of decline [2] Group 2 - The fuel oil market is expected to experience wide fluctuations, with supply and demand both increasing, and cost trends following crude oil movements [3] - The main contract for FU was reported at 2735 yuan/ton, with support expected around 2600, while the LU main contract was at 3217 yuan/ton, with support around 3100 [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, the near - month of Singapore 380cst strengthened significantly, with both cracking and time - spreads strengthening. Short - term arbitrage logistics tightened to a 6 - month low, and Singapore residue inventory dropped significantly to a 13 - week low. The 0.5 low - sulfur cracking strengthened on Friday compared to the previous week, at a historical low year - on - year, and the time - spread was at a low level for the same period in history [3]. - In terms of inventory, EIA residue had a slight de - stocking, ARA residue had inventory accumulation, and Fujairah had a slight inventory accumulation. Under the new situation in Venezuela, heavy - oil logistics are tilted towards the United States, Canadian heavy oil is seeking new buyers, the price of Ma Rui crude oil has risen, and trading is light. Recently, the Iranian situation and arbitrage logistics have affected 380. High - sulfur spot has tightened, cracking has rebounded, and in the short term, high - sulfur has the strongest driving force among oil products, while the low - sulfur external market remains weak [4]. Group 3: Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From January 20 to January 26, 2026, for Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, the price changed from 344.17 to 345.19, with a change of - 8.76; for Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1, it changed from 387.29 to 395.04, with a change of - 1.27; for Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1, it changed from - 9.82 to - 10.50, with a change of - 1.32; for Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1, it changed from 645.50 to 654.90, with a change of 1.85; for Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1, it changed from - 258.21 to - 259.86, with a change of - 3.12; for LGO - Brent M1, it changed from 23.87 to 24.07, with a change of 0.22; for Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1, it changed from 43.12 to 49.85, with a change of 7.49 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From January 20 to January 26, 2026, for Singapore 380cst M1, the price changed from 355.91 to 383.00, with a change of 6.33; for Singapore 180cst M1, it changed from 364.98 to 388.08, with a change of 9.50; for Singapore VLSFO M1, it changed from 423.67 to 443.41, with a change of 8.07; for Singapore Gasoil M1, it changed from 82.46 to 84.82, with a change of 0.78; for Singapore 380cst - Brent M1, it changed from - 6.65 to - 4.52, with a change of - 0.09; for Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1, it changed from - 186.53 to - 184.26, with a change of 2.30 [1][10]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From January 20 to January 26, 2026, for FOB 380cst, the price changed from 355.87 to 397.16, with a change of 15.28; for FOB VLSFO, it changed from 425.98 to 445.54, with a change of 11.11; the 380 basis changed from - 0.80 to 4.55, with a change of 2.25; the high - sulfur internal - external price difference changed from 10.8 to 14.8, with a change of 3.0; the low - sulfur internal - external price difference changed from 16.9 to 18.7, with a change of 0.7 [2]. Domestic FU Data - From January 20 to January 26, 2026, for FU 01, the price changed from 2467 to 2589, with a change of 72; for FU 05, it changed from 2507 to 2745, with a change of 122; for FU 09, it changed from 2487 to 2646, with a change of 84; for FU 01 - 05, it changed from - 40 to - 156, with a change of - 50; for FU 05 - 09, it changed from 20 to 99, with a change of 38; for FU 09 - 01, it changed from 20 to 57, with a change of 12 [2]. Domestic LU Data - From January 20 to January 26, 2026, for LU 01, the price changed from 3120 to 3248, with a change of 65; for LU 05, it changed from 3066 to 3194, with a change of 88; for LU 09, it changed from 3085 to 3211, with a change of 90; for LU 01 - 05, it changed from 54 to 54, with a change of - 23; for LU 05 - 09, it changed from - 19 to - 17, with a change of - 2; for LU 09 - 01, it changed from - 35 to - 37, with a change of 25 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the fuel oil market prices rebounded slightly with limited fluctuations. For high - sulfur fuel oil, Middle East exports remain high, and the bunker market will enter the traditional off - season in January, so there is unlikely to be a sustained upward trend. However, the tense relationship between the US and Venezuela has led to a decline in Venezuelan exports, which will support the price of global high - sulfur fuel oil. For low - sulfur fuel oil, Brazilian refineries will gradually resume operation this month, putting pressure on the market. The FCC unit maintenance of the Dangote refinery will last until January, and low - sulfur spot from Africa will continue to flow to the Asia - Pacific. The strong spot prices in the Asia - Pacific region have attracted some European spot flows, which, together with Brazilian and African spot, will suppress prices. The key lies in the actions of Kuwaiti and Nigerian refineries. The return of the Al - Zour refinery will be bearish for prices, and if the RFCC unit of the Dangote refinery remains under maintenance, its low - sulfur fuel oil will continue to be exported to Asia, impacting prices [4]. - The valuation of FU is 2400 - 2500, and the valuation of LU is 2900 - 3050. The strategies include: 1) The fuel oil price will remain weak in the short term. 2) The contango structure of FU and LU's monthly spreads is difficult to reverse under the condition of loose supply. 3) The short - term crack spreads of FU and LU have reached a low level, and the LU - FU spread will enter a shock period in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply - **Refinery Operation**: The report shows the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries, including overall Chinese refineries, independent refineries, and major refineries, from 2016 - 2025, presented in weekly data [6]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: It includes the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025 [9][11][13][14]. - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commodity Volume**: It presents the monthly production of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025, the monthly domestic commodity volume of fuel oil from 2021 - 2025, and the monthly production of low - sulfur fuel oil in Chinese refineries from 2021 - 2025 [18][19]. Demand - **Domestic and International Fuel Oil Demand Data**: It shows the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China from 2020 - 2025, the monthly sales volume of fuel oil supplied to ships in Singapore from 2018 - 2025, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025 [23]. Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: It includes the inventory of heavy oil in Singapore from 2018 - 2025, the fuel oil inventory in European ARA from 2018 - 2025, the heavy distillate inventory in Fujairah from 2018 - 2025, and the residual fuel oil inventory in the US from 2018 - 2025 [27][29][30]. Price and Spread - **Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in Singapore, 3.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore, and 0.5% fuel oil in Fujairah from 2018 - 2025 [35][36][37]. - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It includes the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, 3.5% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, and 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean from 2018 - 2025 [39][40][42][44]. - **US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, the cargo price of high - sulfur fuel oil in New York Harbor, the FOB price of 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, and the price of low - sulfur straight - run fuel oil in USAC from 2018 - 2025 [45]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: It includes the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil swaps, and Singapore 380 bunker swaps from 2024 - 2025, as well as the prices of FU and LU futures contracts from 2021 - 2025 [47][48][50][53]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spreads**: It shows the high - and low - sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore [59]. - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spreads**: It includes the high - sulfur crack spread in Singapore, the 3.5% crack spread in Northwest Europe, the low - sulfur crack spread in Singapore, and the 1% crack spread in Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2025 [61][63]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spreads**: It shows the monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2022 - 2025 [65]. Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 [70][72]. - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes, including import volumes in China, the Middle East, the US, etc., and export volumes from Russia, the Middle East, etc. [75]. - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes, including import volumes in Singapore + Malaysia, China, the US, etc., and export volumes from the Middle East, Northwest Europe, etc. [77]. Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - **Review**: This week, the fuel oil prices in the Asia - Pacific region entered a shock period, and the Zhoushan market moved in sync. In terms of spreads, the overseas spot prices were relatively weak, and the spread between domestic futures prices and overseas spot prices began to widen [80]. - **Logic**: Due to the increase in supply, overseas spot prices generally weakened. At the same time, the long and short positions of domestic FU and LU were not significantly different, performing relatively stronger than the external market. The internal - external spread increased compared with last week. However, if the number of new warrants on the FU and LU plates remains high, the spread may decline [81]. - **Internal - External Spread Data**: It shows the internal - external spreads of 380 spot, 0.5% spot, FU main contract, FU continuous contract, LU continuous contract, LU first - month contract, and LU second - month contract from December 22 - 26, 2025 [82]. FU and LU Position and Volume Changes - **Fuel Oil Main Contract**: It shows the trading volume and open interest of the fuel oil main contract from 2020 - 2025 [95][97]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Contracts**: It shows the trading volume and open interest of low - sulfur fuel oil continuous and first - month contracts from 2020 - 2025 [100][103]. FU and LU Warrant Quantity Changes - It shows the changes in the number of FU and LU warrants from 2020 - 2025 [106][107].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, fuel oil prices continued to decline at the beginning of the week, stabilized, and rebounded slightly near the weekend. For high - sulfur fuel oil, Middle - East exports continued to surge, with most of the increase coming from Saudi Arabia and Iran. Considering the upcoming end of Saudi Arabia's major maintenance, the short - term weakness of high - sulfur fuel oil may not be reversed. However, Russian exports have started to decline, and a large amount of spot has been piled up in floating storage near Russia, which will support high - sulfur fuel oil prices. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the number of spot goods flowing to the Asia - Pacific region has decreased due to refinery maintenance in Brazil and European refineries' deep - processing of heavy components to increase gasoline and diesel production. But Brazilian and Kuwaiti refineries are expected to resume operations next month, which will increase supply and put pressure on prices. The spot market's transaction premium has declined, and prices may fall further as supply recovery is reflected in shipping data. - Valuation: FU is estimated to be in the range of 2400 - 2500, and LU is estimated to be in the range of 3000 - 3250. - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: Fuel oil prices will remain weak in the short term. 2) Inter - period: The contango structure of FU and LU spreads is difficult to reverse under the condition of loose supply. 3) Inter - variety: The short - term cracking spreads of FU and LU have reached a low level; the LU - FU spread will gradually decline in the short term. [4] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Supply - **Refinery Operations**: The report presents the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (including overall, independent, and major refineries) from 2016 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [6] - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: It shows the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [9][11][13][14] - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume**: It shows the monthly production and commercial volume of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025, including low - sulfur fuel oil production, but no specific analysis is provided. [18][19] Demand - **Domestic and International Fuel Oil Demand Data**: It shows the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the sales volume of fuel oil bunkering in Singapore, and the apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [23] Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: It shows the inventory data of heavy oil in Singapore, ARA in Europe, heavy distillates in Fujairah, and residual fuel oil in the US from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [27][29][30] Price and Spreads - **Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore, 3.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, and 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [35][36][37][39][42] - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, 3.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, high - sulfur fuel oil cargo prices in New York Harbor, and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [40][44][45] - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: It shows the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of FU and LU futures contracts from 2021 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [47][48][51][52][53][55] - **Fuel Oil Spot Spreads**: It shows the high - low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [57] - **Global Fuel Oil Cracking Spreads**: It shows the cracking spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [59][60][61] - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Month Spreads**: It shows the month spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2022 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [63] Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [68][70] - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions such as China, the Middle East, and the US from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [72] - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions such as Singapore, China, and the US from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [74] Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - **Review and Logic**: This week, Asia - Pacific fuel oil prices continued to decline, and the Zhoushan market followed the same trend. The internal - external spreads began to shrink from the previous high. For FU, the short - position holdings still exceeded the long - position holdings, causing FU to underperform the external spot market, and the spread continued to shrink. For LU, both long and short positions were gradually closing, the number of warehouse receipts remained stable after the delivery, and a large amount of low - sulfur components were expected to enter Zhoushan at the end of the month, so the internal - external spread may continue to narrow in the short term. [77] - **Internal - External Spreads Data**: It provides the internal - external spreads data of 380 - grade and 0.5% fuel oil spot, as well as the spreads between FU and LU futures contracts and Singapore prices from November 24 - 28, 2025. [78] - **Spot Market Internal - External Spreads**: It shows the internal - external spreads of 380 - grade and 0.5% fuel oil spot, and the spread between LU and Singapore from 2021 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [81][82][84] - **Futures Market Internal - External Spreads**: It shows the internal - external spreads between FU and LU futures contracts and Singapore prices from 2021 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [85][86][87] - **FU and LU Position and Volume Changes**: It shows the trading volume and position changes of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts from 2020 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [89][90][91][93][95][96] - **FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes**: It shows the quantity changes of FU and LU warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [99][100]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, crude oil showed a first-rising-then-falling trend, and fuel oil prices followed the downward trend. The market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil remained stable, while that of high-sulfur fuel oil strengthened slightly. High-sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,487 yuan/ton, down 3.91% for the week, and low-sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,038 yuan/ton, down 6.23% for the week [4]. - The estimated arrival volume of low-sulfur fuel oil from the Western market in Singapore in November is 2.9 - 3 billion tons, higher than 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons in October. However, high freight rates may lead to a tightening of arrivals in December. Affected by the expected supply tightening, the price of low-sulfur marine fuel oil has gradually risen, and the spot spread has changed from a discount to a premium. But due to sufficient immediate supply, there is limited room for the low-sulfur fuel oil fundamentals to rise significantly in the short term [4]. - The Asian high-sulfur fuel oil market has been strongly supported by the downstream marine fuel demand. Some Chinese refineries are purchasing high-sulfur fuel oil as raw materials, and the demand in the Chinese market remains relatively stable. International crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile, and fuel oil prices are also expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. Operationally, high-sulfur fuel oil should be traded in the range of 2,450 - 2,650 yuan/ton, and low-sulfur fuel oil in the range of 2,950 - 3,150 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Weekly View - Crude oil showed a first-rising-then-falling trend last week, and fuel oil prices followed the downward trend. The market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil remained stable, and that of high-sulfur fuel oil strengthened slightly. High-sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,487 yuan/ton, down 3.91% for the week, and low-sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,038 yuan/ton, down 6.23% for the week [4]. - The estimated arrival volume of low-sulfur fuel oil from the Western market in Singapore in November is 2.9 - 3 billion tons, higher than 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons in October. High freight rates may lead to a tightening of arrivals in December. Affected by the expected supply tightening, the price of low-sulfur marine fuel oil has gradually risen, and the spot spread has changed from a discount to a premium. But due to sufficient immediate supply, there is limited room for the low-sulfur fuel oil fundamentals to rise significantly in the short term [4]. - The Asian high-sulfur fuel oil market has been strongly supported by the downstream marine fuel demand. Some Chinese refineries are purchasing high-sulfur fuel oil as raw materials, and the demand in the Chinese market remains relatively stable. International crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile, and fuel oil prices are also expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. Operationally, high-sulfur fuel oil should be traded in the range of 2,450 - 2,650 yuan/ton, and low-sulfur fuel oil in the range of 2,950 - 3,150 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: The previous value of the FU main contract was 2,655 yuan/ton, the current value is 2,546 yuan/ton, down 109 yuan/ton or 4.10%. The previous value of the LU main contract was 3,255 yuan/ton, the current value is 3,207 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton or 1.49% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The previous value of Zhoushan high-sulfur fuel oil was 456 yuan/ton, the current value is 445 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton or 2.41%. The previous value of Zhoushan low-sulfur fuel oil was 465 yuan/ton, the current value is 455 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or 2.15%. The previous value of Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil was 345.51 yuan/ton, the current value is 341.53 yuan/ton, down 3.98 yuan/ton or 1.15%. The previous value of Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil was 441.50 yuan/ton, the current value is 426.35 yuan/ton, down 15.15 yuan/ton or 3.43%. The previous value of Middle East high-sulfur fuel oil was 314.22 yuan/ton, the current value is 310.98 yuan/ton, down 3.24 yuan/ton or 1.03%. The previous value of Singapore diesel was 711.50 yuan/ton, the current value is 696.05 yuan/ton, down 15.44 yuan/ton or 2.17% [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Consumption Data**: Data on Singapore fuel oil consumption, Chinese fuel oil consumption, and Shandong fuel oil coking profit margins are presented in the form of charts, showing the consumption and profit margin trends from 2021 - 2025 [7][8][9]. 3.4 Inventory Data - **Singapore Fuel Oil Inventory**: As of November 19, the inventory was 23.449 billion barrels, an increase of 2.57 billion barrels [10]. 3.5 Spread Data - The chart of the high - low sulfur futures spread shows the spread trend [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils have no significant changes. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to tighten, while the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil remains relatively abundant. The upstream crude oil price fluctuates, and it is expected that fuel oil will follow the same trend. The FU2601 is expected to trade in the range of 2580 - 2620, and the LU2601 is expected to trade in the range of 3260 - 3300 [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The fundamentals of fuel oil are neutral. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has strengthened slightly, and the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to sufficient short - term supply. The basis shows that the spot is at a premium to the futures. The Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased by 190,000 barrels in the week of November 12, reaching 20.879 million barrels. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat. The high - sulfur main position is short, with short positions decreasing; the low - sulfur main position is long, changing from short to long [3]. 2. Long - Short Focus - **Likely to be Bullish**: Russian fuel oil export restrictions and the cancellation of the US - Russia talks and the sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil is under pressure [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Fundamentals**: The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has strengthened slightly, and the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to sufficient short - term supply, which is neutral. - **Basis**: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 11 yuan/ton, and that of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is 32 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. - **Inventory**: The Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of November 12 was 20.879 million barrels, a decrease of 190,000 barrels, which is neutral. - **Market Chart**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat, which is neutral. - **Main Position**: The high - sulfur main position is short, with short positions decreasing, which is bearish; the low - sulfur main position is long, changing from short to long, which is bullish [3]. 4. Spread Data - The report does not provide specific analysis of spread data, only shows the high - and low - sulfur futures spread chart. 5. Inventory Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory on November 12 was 20.879 million barrels, a decrease of 190,000 barrels compared to the previous period. The historical inventory data from September 3 to November 12 is also provided, showing the inventory changes during this period [3][8].

Report Overview - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report - Report Date: November 16, 2025 - Analyst: Liang Kefang - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0019111 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, fuel oil prices continued to decline following crude oil, with low-sulfur fuel oil remaining relatively stronger than high-sulfur fuel oil both domestically and internationally. For high-sulfur fuel oil, with high export volumes from the Middle East, the spot market's transaction premium remained weak. As demand for shipping and power generation entered the off-season, the short-term weakness of high-sulfur fuel oil may not be reversed. For low-sulfur fuel oil, refinery maintenance in Brazil and European refineries' shift to deep processing of heavy components to increase gasoline and diesel production led to a decrease in spot volumes flowing to the Asia-Pacific region, and the spot transaction premium began to gradually recover. Temporarily, even if some refineries end maintenance at the end of the month, as long as gasoline and diesel profits remain at current levels, European refineries may still convert a large amount of heavy components into gasoline and diesel, reducing exports to the Asia-Pacific and limiting the overall market's spot supply. Therefore, the strength of low-sulfur fuel oil relative to high-sulfur fuel oil is expected to continue. - Valuation: FU: 2550 - 2800; LU: 3150 - 3350 - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: Fuel oil prices will remain weak in the short term, with LU remaining relatively strong. 2) Inter-period: The LU monthly spread structure has been reversed and will remain the same before the number of warehouse receipts increases significantly. 3) Inter-variety: FU cracking will fluctuate at a high level; the LU - FU spread will gradually rebound in the short term. [4] Summary by Directory Supply - Refinery Operations: Data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries, independent refineries, and major refineries from 2016 - 2025 are presented, including weekly data on the capacity utilization rate of the crude oil atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit [6]. - Global Refinery Maintenance: Data on the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025 are provided [9][11][13][14]. - Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume: Data on China's monthly fuel oil production, domestic commercial volume, and low-sulfur fuel oil production from 2018 - 2025 are presented [18][19]. Demand - Domestic and International Fuel Oil Demand Data: Data on China's monthly marine fuel oil actual consumption, Singapore's monthly fuel oil bunker sales, and China's monthly fuel oil apparent consumption from 2018 - 2025 are provided [23]. Inventory - Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory: Data on Singapore's heavy oil inventory, European ARA fuel oil inventory, Fujairah's heavy distillate inventory, and the weekly residual fuel oil inventory in the US from 2018 - 2025 are presented [27][28][30]. Price and Spread - Asia-Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, Singapore, and the Mediterranean from 2018 - 2025 are provided [34][37][38]. - European Regional Spot FOB Prices: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in the Northwest Europe, Mediterranean, US Gulf, and New York Harbor from 2018 - 2025 are presented [44][45]. - Paper and Derivative Prices: Data on the high-sulfur and low-sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore from 2024 - 2025 are provided, as well as data on the continuous contracts of LU and FU from 2021 - 2025 [47][48][51]. - Fuel Oil Spot Spread: Data on the Singapore high-sulfur and low-sulfur spreads, and viscosity spreads from 2018 - 2025 are presented [57]. - Global Fuel Oil Cracking Spread: Data on the Singapore high-sulfur and low-sulfur cracking spreads, and Northwest Europe 3.5% and 1% cracking spreads from 2019 - 2025 are presented [59][60][61]. - Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread: Data on the Singapore and Northwest Europe high-sulfur and low-sulfur M1 - M2 and M2 - M3 monthly spreads from 2022 - 2025 are presented [63]. Import and Export - Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on China's monthly fuel oil import and export volumes (excluding biodiesel) from 2018 - 2025 are presented [68][71]. - Global High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on the weekly changes in global high-sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in China, the Middle East, the US, Singapore + Malaysia, India, and Northwest Europe from 2018 - 2025 are presented [73]. - Global Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on the weekly changes in global low-sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in Singapore + Malaysia, China, the US, the Mediterranean + Black Sea, Northwest Europe, and the Middle East from 2018 - 2025 are presented [75]. Futures Market Indicators and Internal-External Spreads - Review: During the week, Asia-Pacific fuel oil prices continued to decline, and the Zhoushan market followed the same trend. In terms of spreads, the domestic FU and LU were relatively weaker than the international market, and the spreads began to shrink. - Logic: For FU, the short positions still outnumbered the long positions, causing FU to perform relatively weaker than the international spot market, and the spread continued to shrink. For LU, the number of warehouse receipts remained stable after the delivery, and the internal-external spread may end the convergence in the short term. Data on the internal-external spreads of 380 and 0.5% spot, FU main contract, FU continuous contract, and LU continuous contract from November 10 - 14, 2025 are presented [78][79][80]. - Spot Market Internal-External Spread: Data on the internal-external spreads of 380 and 0.5% spot from 2021 - 2025 are presented [83][84]. - Futures Market Internal-External Spread: Data on the internal-external spreads of FU main contract, FU continuous contract, and LU continuous contract from 2021 - 2025 are presented [88][89]. - FU and LU Open Interest and Trading Volume Changes: Data on the trading volume and open interest of fuel oil main continuous contract, continuous contract, low-sulfur fuel oil continuous contract, and continuous contract from 2020 - 2025 are presented [92][94][97][100]. - FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes: Data on the quantity changes of FU and LU warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025 are presented [103][104].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil showed a rebound trend, gradually returning to the levels at the beginning of the month. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the spot market's transaction premium did not strengthen significantly, indicating no obvious supply shortage, but the export situation of Russia needs to be observed. For low - sulfur fuel oil, it is rumored that state - owned refineries are converting some low - sulfur export quotas into refined oil export quotas, which will lead to a decline in future port spot supply, making the LU price stronger than the FU price. However, as the domestic price rises, domestic traders may increase imports, which will resist the upward price trend. - Valuation: FU is between 2600 - 2800, and LU is between 3150 - 3350. - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: FU remains weak in the short term, while LU is still strong. 2) Inter - period: The LU monthly spread structure has been reversed and will remain so before the number of warehouse receipts increases. 3) Inter - variety: The FU crack spread fluctuates at a high level; the LU - FU spread will gradually rebound in the short term. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - **Refinery Operation**: The content shows the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil: atmospheric and vacuum distillation), independent refineries, and major refineries from 2016 - 2025. [6] - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: It presents the maintenance volumes of global CDU devices, hydrocracking devices, FCC devices, and coking devices from 2018 - 2025. [9][11][13][14] - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume**: It shows the monthly production of fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and domestic commercial volume of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025. [19][20] Demand - **Domestic and Foreign Fuel Oil Demand Data**: It shows the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the monthly sales of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025. [23] Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: It shows the inventory data of heavy oil in Singapore, fuel oil in European ARA, heavy distillates in Fujairah, and residual fuel oil in the US from 2018 - 2025. [27][29][30] Price and Spread - **Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore, 3.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, etc. from 2018 - 2025. [34][35][36][37] - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, 3.5% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, etc. from 2018 - 2025. [38][39][40][42][44] - **US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Prices**: It shows the spot prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, high - sulfur fuel oil in the New York Harbor, etc. from 2018 - 2025. [45] - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: It shows the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore from 2024 - 2025, as well as the prices of LU and FU futures contracts from 2021 - 2025. [48][49][51][52][54][56] - **Fuel Oil Spot Spread**: It shows the high - low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore from 2019 - 2025. [59] - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the crack spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2025. [60][61][62][63] - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread**: It shows the monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2022 - 2025. [65] Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025. [70][72][73] - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global high - sulfur fuel oil, including data from China, the Middle East, the US, etc. [74] - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global low - sulfur fuel oil, including data from Singapore + Malaysia, China, the US, etc. [76] Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - **Review**: This week, the Asia - Pacific fuel oil prices declined, and the Zhoushan market moved in tandem. In terms of spreads, the domestic FU and LU were weaker than the overseas market, and the spreads began to shrink. - **Logic**: For FU, the short positions still led the long positions, causing the FU to be weaker than the overseas spot, and the spread continued to shrink. For LU, the number of warehouse receipts increased significantly at the beginning of the delivery period, the market view turned short - term bearish, the long positions decreased rapidly, and the spread of LU relative to the overseas spot began to decline. [79][80] - **Spot Market Internal - External Spreads**: It shows the internal - external spreads of 380 and 0.5% fuel oil from 2021 - 2025. [83][85] - **Futures Market Internal - External Spreads**: It shows the internal - external spreads of FU and LU futures contracts relative to Singapore from 2021 - 2025. [90][91] - **FU and LU Position and Volume Changes**: It shows the position and volume changes of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts from 2020 - 2025. [94][95][96][99][100][102] - **FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes**: It shows the quantity changes of FU and LU warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025. [105][106]