国泰君安期货·能源化工 燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 本周观点总结 01 供应 02 需求 03 库存 04 价格及价差 05 炼厂开工 全球炼厂检修 国内炼厂产量与商品量 国内外燃料油需求数据 全球燃料油现货库存 亚太区域现货FOB价格 欧洲区域现货FOB价格 美国地区燃料油现货价格 纸货与衍生品价格 燃料油现货价差 全球燃料油裂解价差 全球燃料油纸货月差 进出口 06 国内燃料油进出口数据 全球高硫燃料油进出口数据 全球低硫燃料油进出口数据 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 本周燃料油、低硫燃料油观点：盘面反弹，关注供应端变化 | | 本周燃料油市场价格小幅反弹，波动仍然较为有限。高硫方面，中东出口量维持高位，同时，一月份船燃市场将逐步转入传统淡季，高硫价格 | | --- | --- | | | 预计难有持续性 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, fuel oil prices continued to decline at the beginning of the week, stabilized, and rebounded slightly near the weekend. For high - sulfur fuel oil, Middle - East exports continued to surge, with most of the increase coming from Saudi Arabia and Iran. Considering the upcoming end of Saudi Arabia's major maintenance, the short - term weakness of high - sulfur fuel oil may not be reversed. However, Russian exports have started to decline, and a large amount of spot has been piled up in floating storage near Russia, which will support high - sulfur fuel oil prices. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the number of spot goods flowing to the Asia - Pacific region has decreased due to refinery maintenance in Brazil and European refineries' deep - processing of heavy components to increase gasoline and diesel production. But Brazilian and Kuwaiti refineries are expected to resume operations next month, which will increase supply and put pressure on prices. The spot market's transaction premium has declined, and prices may fall further as supply recovery is reflected in shipping data. - Valuation: FU is estimated to be in the range of 2400 - 2500, and LU is estimated to be in the range of 3000 - 3250. - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: Fuel oil prices will remain weak in the short term. 2) Inter - period: The contango structure of FU and LU spreads is difficult to reverse under the condition of loose supply. 3) Inter - variety: The short - term cracking spreads of FU and LU have reached a low level; the LU - FU spread will gradually decline in the short term. [4] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Supply - **Refinery Operations**: The report presents the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (including overall, independent, and major refineries) from 2016 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [6] - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: It shows the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [9][11][13][14] - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume**: It shows the monthly production and commercial volume of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025, including low - sulfur fuel oil production, but no specific analysis is provided. [18][19] Demand - **Domestic and International Fuel Oil Demand Data**: It shows the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the sales volume of fuel oil bunkering in Singapore, and the apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [23] Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: It shows the inventory data of heavy oil in Singapore, ARA in Europe, heavy distillates in Fujairah, and residual fuel oil in the US from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [27][29][30] Price and Spreads - **Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore, 3.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, and 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [35][36][37][39][42] - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, 3.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, high - sulfur fuel oil cargo prices in New York Harbor, and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [40][44][45] - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: It shows the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of FU and LU futures contracts from 2021 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [47][48][51][52][53][55] - **Fuel Oil Spot Spreads**: It shows the high - low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [57] - **Global Fuel Oil Cracking Spreads**: It shows the cracking spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [59][60][61] - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Month Spreads**: It shows the month spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2022 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [63] Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [68][70] - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions such as China, the Middle East, and the US from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [72] - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions such as Singapore, China, and the US from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [74] Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - **Review and Logic**: This week, Asia - Pacific fuel oil prices continued to decline, and the Zhoushan market followed the same trend. The internal - external spreads began to shrink from the previous high. For FU, the short - position holdings still exceeded the long - position holdings, causing FU to underperform the external spot market, and the spread continued to shrink. For LU, both long and short positions were gradually closing, the number of warehouse receipts remained stable after the delivery, and a large amount of low - sulfur components were expected to enter Zhoushan at the end of the month, so the internal - external spread may continue to narrow in the short term. [77] - **Internal - External Spreads Data**: It provides the internal - external spreads data of 380 - grade and 0.5% fuel oil spot, as well as the spreads between FU and LU futures contracts and Singapore prices from November 24 - 28, 2025. [78] - **Spot Market Internal - External Spreads**: It shows the internal - external spreads of 380 - grade and 0.5% fuel oil spot, and the spread between LU and Singapore from 2021 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [81][82][84] - **Futures Market Internal - External Spreads**: It shows the internal - external spreads between FU and LU futures contracts and Singapore prices from 2021 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [85][86][87] - **FU and LU Position and Volume Changes**: It shows the trading volume and position changes of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts from 2020 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [89][90][91][93][95][96] - **FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes**: It shows the quantity changes of FU and LU warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025, but no specific analysis is provided. [99][100]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, crude oil showed a first-rising-then-falling trend, and fuel oil prices followed the downward trend. The market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil remained stable, while that of high-sulfur fuel oil strengthened slightly. High-sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,487 yuan/ton, down 3.91% for the week, and low-sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,038 yuan/ton, down 6.23% for the week [4]. - The estimated arrival volume of low-sulfur fuel oil from the Western market in Singapore in November is 2.9 - 3 billion tons, higher than 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons in October. However, high freight rates may lead to a tightening of arrivals in December. Affected by the expected supply tightening, the price of low-sulfur marine fuel oil has gradually risen, and the spot spread has changed from a discount to a premium. But due to sufficient immediate supply, there is limited room for the low-sulfur fuel oil fundamentals to rise significantly in the short term [4]. - The Asian high-sulfur fuel oil market has been strongly supported by the downstream marine fuel demand. Some Chinese refineries are purchasing high-sulfur fuel oil as raw materials, and the demand in the Chinese market remains relatively stable. International crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile, and fuel oil prices are also expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. Operationally, high-sulfur fuel oil should be traded in the range of 2,450 - 2,650 yuan/ton, and low-sulfur fuel oil in the range of 2,950 - 3,150 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Weekly View - Crude oil showed a first-rising-then-falling trend last week, and fuel oil prices followed the downward trend. The market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil remained stable, and that of high-sulfur fuel oil strengthened slightly. High-sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,487 yuan/ton, down 3.91% for the week, and low-sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,038 yuan/ton, down 6.23% for the week [4]. - The estimated arrival volume of low-sulfur fuel oil from the Western market in Singapore in November is 2.9 - 3 billion tons, higher than 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons in October. High freight rates may lead to a tightening of arrivals in December. Affected by the expected supply tightening, the price of low-sulfur marine fuel oil has gradually risen, and the spot spread has changed from a discount to a premium. But due to sufficient immediate supply, there is limited room for the low-sulfur fuel oil fundamentals to rise significantly in the short term [4]. - The Asian high-sulfur fuel oil market has been strongly supported by the downstream marine fuel demand. Some Chinese refineries are purchasing high-sulfur fuel oil as raw materials, and the demand in the Chinese market remains relatively stable. International crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile, and fuel oil prices are also expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. Operationally, high-sulfur fuel oil should be traded in the range of 2,450 - 2,650 yuan/ton, and low-sulfur fuel oil in the range of 2,950 - 3,150 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: The previous value of the FU main contract was 2,655 yuan/ton, the current value is 2,546 yuan/ton, down 109 yuan/ton or 4.10%. The previous value of the LU main contract was 3,255 yuan/ton, the current value is 3,207 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton or 1.49% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The previous value of Zhoushan high-sulfur fuel oil was 456 yuan/ton, the current value is 445 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton or 2.41%. The previous value of Zhoushan low-sulfur fuel oil was 465 yuan/ton, the current value is 455 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or 2.15%. The previous value of Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil was 345.51 yuan/ton, the current value is 341.53 yuan/ton, down 3.98 yuan/ton or 1.15%. The previous value of Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil was 441.50 yuan/ton, the current value is 426.35 yuan/ton, down 15.15 yuan/ton or 3.43%. The previous value of Middle East high-sulfur fuel oil was 314.22 yuan/ton, the current value is 310.98 yuan/ton, down 3.24 yuan/ton or 1.03%. The previous value of Singapore diesel was 711.50 yuan/ton, the current value is 696.05 yuan/ton, down 15.44 yuan/ton or 2.17% [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Consumption Data**: Data on Singapore fuel oil consumption, Chinese fuel oil consumption, and Shandong fuel oil coking profit margins are presented in the form of charts, showing the consumption and profit margin trends from 2021 - 2025 [7][8][9]. 3.4 Inventory Data - **Singapore Fuel Oil Inventory**: As of November 19, the inventory was 23.449 billion barrels, an increase of 2.57 billion barrels [10]. 3.5 Spread Data - The chart of the high - low sulfur futures spread shows the spread trend [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils have no significant changes. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to tighten, while the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil remains relatively abundant. The upstream crude oil price fluctuates, and it is expected that fuel oil will follow the same trend. The FU2601 is expected to trade in the range of 2580 - 2620, and the LU2601 is expected to trade in the range of 3260 - 3300 [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The fundamentals of fuel oil are neutral. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has strengthened slightly, and the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to sufficient short - term supply. The basis shows that the spot is at a premium to the futures. The Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased by 190,000 barrels in the week of November 12, reaching 20.879 million barrels. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat. The high - sulfur main position is short, with short positions decreasing; the low - sulfur main position is long, changing from short to long [3]. 2. Long - Short Focus - **Likely to be Bullish**: Russian fuel oil export restrictions and the cancellation of the US - Russia talks and the sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil is under pressure [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Fundamentals**: The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has strengthened slightly, and the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to sufficient short - term supply, which is neutral. - **Basis**: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 11 yuan/ton, and that of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is 32 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. - **Inventory**: The Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of November 12 was 20.879 million barrels, a decrease of 190,000 barrels, which is neutral. - **Market Chart**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat, which is neutral. - **Main Position**: The high - sulfur main position is short, with short positions decreasing, which is bearish; the low - sulfur main position is long, changing from short to long, which is bullish [3]. 4. Spread Data - The report does not provide specific analysis of spread data, only shows the high - and low - sulfur futures spread chart. 5. Inventory Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory on November 12 was 20.879 million barrels, a decrease of 190,000 barrels compared to the previous period. The historical inventory data from September 3 to November 12 is also provided, showing the inventory changes during this period [3][8].

Report Overview - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report - Report Date: November 16, 2025 - Analyst: Liang Kefang - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0019111 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, fuel oil prices continued to decline following crude oil, with low-sulfur fuel oil remaining relatively stronger than high-sulfur fuel oil both domestically and internationally. For high-sulfur fuel oil, with high export volumes from the Middle East, the spot market's transaction premium remained weak. As demand for shipping and power generation entered the off-season, the short-term weakness of high-sulfur fuel oil may not be reversed. For low-sulfur fuel oil, refinery maintenance in Brazil and European refineries' shift to deep processing of heavy components to increase gasoline and diesel production led to a decrease in spot volumes flowing to the Asia-Pacific region, and the spot transaction premium began to gradually recover. Temporarily, even if some refineries end maintenance at the end of the month, as long as gasoline and diesel profits remain at current levels, European refineries may still convert a large amount of heavy components into gasoline and diesel, reducing exports to the Asia-Pacific and limiting the overall market's spot supply. Therefore, the strength of low-sulfur fuel oil relative to high-sulfur fuel oil is expected to continue. - Valuation: FU: 2550 - 2800; LU: 3150 - 3350 - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: Fuel oil prices will remain weak in the short term, with LU remaining relatively strong. 2) Inter-period: The LU monthly spread structure has been reversed and will remain the same before the number of warehouse receipts increases significantly. 3) Inter-variety: FU cracking will fluctuate at a high level; the LU - FU spread will gradually rebound in the short term. [4] Summary by Directory Supply - Refinery Operations: Data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries, independent refineries, and major refineries from 2016 - 2025 are presented, including weekly data on the capacity utilization rate of the crude oil atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit [6]. - Global Refinery Maintenance: Data on the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025 are provided [9][11][13][14]. - Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume: Data on China's monthly fuel oil production, domestic commercial volume, and low-sulfur fuel oil production from 2018 - 2025 are presented [18][19]. Demand - Domestic and International Fuel Oil Demand Data: Data on China's monthly marine fuel oil actual consumption, Singapore's monthly fuel oil bunker sales, and China's monthly fuel oil apparent consumption from 2018 - 2025 are provided [23]. Inventory - Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory: Data on Singapore's heavy oil inventory, European ARA fuel oil inventory, Fujairah's heavy distillate inventory, and the weekly residual fuel oil inventory in the US from 2018 - 2025 are presented [27][28][30]. Price and Spread - Asia-Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, Singapore, and the Mediterranean from 2018 - 2025 are provided [34][37][38]. - European Regional Spot FOB Prices: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in the Northwest Europe, Mediterranean, US Gulf, and New York Harbor from 2018 - 2025 are presented [44][45]. - Paper and Derivative Prices: Data on the high-sulfur and low-sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore from 2024 - 2025 are provided, as well as data on the continuous contracts of LU and FU from 2021 - 2025 [47][48][51]. - Fuel Oil Spot Spread: Data on the Singapore high-sulfur and low-sulfur spreads, and viscosity spreads from 2018 - 2025 are presented [57]. - Global Fuel Oil Cracking Spread: Data on the Singapore high-sulfur and low-sulfur cracking spreads, and Northwest Europe 3.5% and 1% cracking spreads from 2019 - 2025 are presented [59][60][61]. - Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread: Data on the Singapore and Northwest Europe high-sulfur and low-sulfur M1 - M2 and M2 - M3 monthly spreads from 2022 - 2025 are presented [63]. Import and Export - Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on China's monthly fuel oil import and export volumes (excluding biodiesel) from 2018 - 2025 are presented [68][71]. - Global High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on the weekly changes in global high-sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in China, the Middle East, the US, Singapore + Malaysia, India, and Northwest Europe from 2018 - 2025 are presented [73]. - Global Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on the weekly changes in global low-sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in Singapore + Malaysia, China, the US, the Mediterranean + Black Sea, Northwest Europe, and the Middle East from 2018 - 2025 are presented [75]. Futures Market Indicators and Internal-External Spreads - Review: During the week, Asia-Pacific fuel oil prices continued to decline, and the Zhoushan market followed the same trend. In terms of spreads, the domestic FU and LU were relatively weaker than the international market, and the spreads began to shrink. - Logic: For FU, the short positions still outnumbered the long positions, causing FU to perform relatively weaker than the international spot market, and the spread continued to shrink. For LU, the number of warehouse receipts remained stable after the delivery, and the internal-external spread may end the convergence in the short term. Data on the internal-external spreads of 380 and 0.5% spot, FU main contract, FU continuous contract, and LU continuous contract from November 10 - 14, 2025 are presented [78][79][80]. - Spot Market Internal-External Spread: Data on the internal-external spreads of 380 and 0.5% spot from 2021 - 2025 are presented [83][84]. - Futures Market Internal-External Spread: Data on the internal-external spreads of FU main contract, FU continuous contract, and LU continuous contract from 2021 - 2025 are presented [88][89]. - FU and LU Open Interest and Trading Volume Changes: Data on the trading volume and open interest of fuel oil main continuous contract, continuous contract, low-sulfur fuel oil continuous contract, and continuous contract from 2020 - 2025 are presented [92][94][97][100]. - FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes: Data on the quantity changes of FU and LU warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025 are presented [103][104].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil showed a rebound trend, gradually returning to the levels at the beginning of the month. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the spot market's transaction premium did not strengthen significantly, indicating no obvious supply shortage, but the export situation of Russia needs to be observed. For low - sulfur fuel oil, it is rumored that state - owned refineries are converting some low - sulfur export quotas into refined oil export quotas, which will lead to a decline in future port spot supply, making the LU price stronger than the FU price. However, as the domestic price rises, domestic traders may increase imports, which will resist the upward price trend. - Valuation: FU is between 2600 - 2800, and LU is between 3150 - 3350. - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: FU remains weak in the short term, while LU is still strong. 2) Inter - period: The LU monthly spread structure has been reversed and will remain so before the number of warehouse receipts increases. 3) Inter - variety: The FU crack spread fluctuates at a high level; the LU - FU spread will gradually rebound in the short term. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - **Refinery Operation**: The content shows the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil: atmospheric and vacuum distillation), independent refineries, and major refineries from 2016 - 2025. [6] - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: It presents the maintenance volumes of global CDU devices, hydrocracking devices, FCC devices, and coking devices from 2018 - 2025. [9][11][13][14] - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume**: It shows the monthly production of fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and domestic commercial volume of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025. [19][20] Demand - **Domestic and Foreign Fuel Oil Demand Data**: It shows the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the monthly sales of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025. [23] Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: It shows the inventory data of heavy oil in Singapore, fuel oil in European ARA, heavy distillates in Fujairah, and residual fuel oil in the US from 2018 - 2025. [27][29][30] Price and Spread - **Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore, 3.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, etc. from 2018 - 2025. [34][35][36][37] - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, 3.5% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, etc. from 2018 - 2025. [38][39][40][42][44] - **US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Prices**: It shows the spot prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, high - sulfur fuel oil in the New York Harbor, etc. from 2018 - 2025. [45] - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: It shows the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore from 2024 - 2025, as well as the prices of LU and FU futures contracts from 2021 - 2025. [48][49][51][52][54][56] - **Fuel Oil Spot Spread**: It shows the high - low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore from 2019 - 2025. [59] - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the crack spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2025. [60][61][62][63] - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread**: It shows the monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2022 - 2025. [65] Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025. [70][72][73] - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global high - sulfur fuel oil, including data from China, the Middle East, the US, etc. [74] - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global low - sulfur fuel oil, including data from Singapore + Malaysia, China, the US, etc. [76] Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - **Review**: This week, the Asia - Pacific fuel oil prices declined, and the Zhoushan market moved in tandem. In terms of spreads, the domestic FU and LU were weaker than the overseas market, and the spreads began to shrink. - **Logic**: For FU, the short positions still led the long positions, causing the FU to be weaker than the overseas spot, and the spread continued to shrink. For LU, the number of warehouse receipts increased significantly at the beginning of the delivery period, the market view turned short - term bearish, the long positions decreased rapidly, and the spread of LU relative to the overseas spot began to decline. [79][80] - **Spot Market Internal - External Spreads**: It shows the internal - external spreads of 380 and 0.5% fuel oil from 2021 - 2025. [83][85] - **Futures Market Internal - External Spreads**: It shows the internal - external spreads of FU and LU futures contracts relative to Singapore from 2021 - 2025. [90][91] - **FU and LU Position and Volume Changes**: It shows the position and volume changes of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts from 2020 - 2025. [94][95][96][99][100][102] - **FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes**: It shows the quantity changes of FU and LU warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025. [105][106]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil continued to decline and reached the lowest point of the year. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the impact of the decline in Russian exports still exists, but most refineries plan to end maintenance at the end of October. If the operating rate of Russian refineries recovers, the high - sulfur market may face negative factors. Meanwhile, the crude oil import quotas of domestic local refineries are gradually being consumed, and some small and medium - sized refineries may increase fuel oil imports in the future, which needs continuous attention. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the external market has shown little fluctuation recently. Although the number of domestic LU warehouse receipts is gradually decreasing, the opening of the internal - external price difference will continue to attract foreign spot goods for delivery, which will significantly suppress the near - month valuation, and the monthly spread will remain weak in the near future [4]. - Valuation: FU is valued at 2650 - 2800, and LU is valued at 3050 - 3350 [4]. - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: FU and LU have entered a low - price range, and the short - term downward space is relatively limited. 2) Inter - period: There is a probability that the LU monthly spread will continue to decline. 3) Inter - variety: The FU crack spread fluctuates at a high level; the LU - FU price difference may still shrink slightly in the short term [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Supply - Multiple charts show the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (including overall, independent, and major refineries), the maintenance volume of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units, as well as the production and commercial volume of domestic refinery fuel oil over different years [6][10][20]. Demand - Charts present the demand data of fuel oil at home and abroad, including the actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the sales volume of fuel oil in Singapore, and the apparent consumption of fuel oil in China over different years [23]. Inventory - Charts show the global fuel oil spot inventory, including the heavy oil inventory in Singapore, the fuel oil inventory in European ARA, the heavy distillate inventory in Fujairah, and the residual fuel oil inventory in the US over different years [26][28][29]. Price and Spread - **Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Include the FOB prices of fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific region (such as in Singapore and Fujairah), the European region (such as in Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean), and the US region (such as in the US Gulf and New York Harbor) over different years [34][36][43]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: Show the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of fuel oil futures contracts such as FU and LU over different years [46][47]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spread**: Include the high - low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore [56][57]. - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spread**: Present the crack spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe [60][62]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread**: Show the monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe [64]. Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Charts show the import and export quantities of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China over different years [69][71]. - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Present the weekly changes in the import and export quantities of global high - sulfur fuel oil in different regions [73]. - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Show the weekly changes in the import and export quantities of global low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions [75]. Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Price Difference - **Internal - External Price Difference in the Spot Market**: Include the internal - external price differences of 380 - grade and 0.5% fuel oil, as well as the internal - external price differences between LU and Singapore [82][83][85]. - **Internal - External Price Difference in the Futures Market**: Include the internal - external price differences between FU and Singapore (such as FU main contract, FU continuous contract 1) and between LU and Singapore (such as LU continuous contract, LU continuous contract 1, LU continuous contract 2) [86][87]. - **Changes in the Positions and Trading Volumes of FU and LU**: Show the trading volumes and positions of fuel oil main contract, continuous contract 1, low - sulfur fuel oil continuous contract, and continuous contract 1 over different years [90][92][95]. - **Changes in the Warehouse Receipt Quantities of FU and LU**: Present the changes in the warehouse receipt quantities of fu and lu over different years [102][103].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2) Report's Core View - The price center of fuel oil has reached the lowest level of the year, and the short - term weakness persists. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to decline, and the high - low sulfur spread of the overseas spot market has a slight rebound [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Prices**: For fuel oil futures, FU2511 closed at 2,750 yuan/ton with a - 1.19% daily change, and FU2512 closed at 2,717 yuan/ton with a - 1.11% daily change. For low - sulfur fuel oil futures, LU2511 closed at 3,191 yuan/ton with a - 0.84% daily change, and LU2512 closed at 3,203 yuan/ton with a - 0.50% daily change [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: In terms of trading volume, FU2511 decreased by 3,554 hands to 4,489 hands, FU2512 decreased by 7,801 hands to 11,144 hands, LU2511 decreased by 8,947 hands to 7,576 hands, and LU2512 decreased by 14,112 hands to 76,439 hands. Regarding open interest, FU2511 increased by 32 hands to 12,242 hands, FU2512 increased by 18 hands to 12,872 hands, LU2511 decreased by 2,417 hands to 16,369 hands, and LU2512 increased by 809 hands to 64,270 hands [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total fuel oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 45,800, and the low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts also remained unchanged at 13,080 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in various regions such as Singapore, High - Chayla, and Zhoushan all showed a downward trend. For example, Singapore FOB high - sulfur fuel oil (3.5%S) decreased by 3.07% to 363.3 dollars/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil (0.5%S) decreased by 1.46% to 432.3 dollars/ton [1]. - **Spreads**: The spread between FU11 - 12 was 33 yuan/ton, and the spread between LU11 - 12 was - 12 yuan/ton. The spread between LU11 - FU11 was 441 yuan/ton. The spread between FU2510 - Singapore MOPS (3.5%S) increased by 49.2 yuan/ton to 155.8 yuan/ton, and the spread between LU2510 - Singapore MOPS (0.5%S) increased by 18.8 yuan/ton to 103.6 yuan/ton. The spread between Singapore MOPS (0.5%S - 3.5%S) increased by 5.1 dollars/ton to 69.1 dollars/ton [1]. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, fuel oil prices rose significantly, with the price center gradually reaching a two - month high. For high - sulfur fuel oil, market transactions improved slightly, the premium increased, Middle East shipments remained high, but Russian exports continued to decline. Due to recent attacks and sanctions, nearly one - third of Russian refinery capacity was offline, so supply factors still supported high - sulfur fuel oil. If Russian exports continue to face obstacles, high - sulfur fuel oil valuations may continue to rise. For low - sulfur fuel oil, there is no obvious supply gap in the Asia - Pacific region, and spot shipments are normal. The August Singapore bunker sales data was good, providing some support on the demand side. On the domestic market, the quota issue has been fully priced in by the market, but inventory continued to accumulate in the Zhoushan area, and there were still warehouse receipts on the futures market. In the short term, the price may be relatively weaker than that of high - sulfur fuel oil. - Valuation: FU is estimated to be in the range of 2700 - 3000, and LU is estimated to be in the range of 3400 - 3650. - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: FU will continue to be strong in the short term, and LU will mainly follow the upward trend. 2) Inter - period: FU and LU will maintain the current structure. 3) Inter - variety: FU cracking will fluctuate at a high level; the LU - FU spread may still contract slightly in the short term. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Refinery Operations**: The document presents the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil: atmospheric and vacuum distillation), independent refineries, and major refineries over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [6] - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: It shows the maintenance volumes of global CDU devices, hydrocracking devices, FCC devices, and coking devices over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [9][11][13][14] - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commodity Volume**: It shows the monthly production of fuel oil in China, the monthly production of low - sulfur fuel oil in Chinese refineries, and the monthly domestic commercial volume of fuel oil over different years, but no specific analysis is provided. [20] 3.2 Demand - **Domestic and Foreign Fuel Oil Demand Data**: It shows the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the monthly sales volume of fuel oil bunkering in Singapore, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China over different years, but no specific analysis is provided. [23] 3.3 Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: It shows the heavy oil inventory in Singapore, the fuel oil inventory in European ARA, the heavy distillate inventory in Fujairah, and the residual fuel oil inventory in the US over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [26][28][29] 3.4 Price and Spread - **Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, 0.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, 3.5% fuel oil in Singapore, 3.5% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, 1% fuel oil in north - western Europe, and 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [34][35][36][38][39][41] - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in north - western Europe, 3.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, high - sulfur fuel oil cargo prices in the New York Harbor, 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, and low - sulfur straight - run fuel oil prices in the USAC over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [43][44] - **US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, high - sulfur fuel oil cargo prices in the New York Harbor, 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, and low - sulfur straight - run fuel oil prices in the USAC over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [44] - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: It shows the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in north - western Europe, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil swaps, Singapore 380 bunker swaps, and domestic futures contracts (FU and LU) over different time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [47][48][51] - **Fuel Oil Spot Spreads**: It shows the Singapore high - low sulfur spread, Singapore viscosity spread, and other spreads over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [57][58][59] - **Global Fuel Oil Cracking Spreads**: It shows the cracking spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and north - western Europe over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [62][63][64] - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spreads**: It shows the monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and north - western Europe over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [66] 3.5 Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China over different years, but no specific analysis is provided. [71][73] - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions, but no specific analysis is provided. [75] - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions, but no specific analysis is provided. [77] 3.6 Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - **Review**: This week, Asia - Pacific fuel oil prices rose significantly, and the Zhoushan market moved in tandem. In terms of spreads, domestic FU and LU were relatively stronger than the international market, and the premium continued to recover. - **Logic**: This week, spot prices at home and abroad rebounded significantly. On the domestic market, FU started to rebound from the bottom, and the internal - external spread continued to repair. The same situation occurred for LU. Due to the relatively small new batch of quotas, the domestic LU maintained a stable spread with the international spot market. [80] - **Internal - External Spreads**: It shows the internal - external spreads of 380 spot, 0.5% spot, and domestic futures contracts (FU and LU) against Singapore over different dates, but no specific analysis is provided. [81] 3.7 FU and LU Position and Volume Changes - It shows the trading volumes and open interest of fuel oil main - continuous contracts, fuel oil continuous contracts, low - sulfur fuel oil continuous contracts, and related sub - contracts over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [94][96][99] 3.8 FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes - It shows the changes in the number of FU and LU warehouse receipts over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [105][106]

Group 1 - Fuel oil futures main contract showed weak fluctuations, closing at 2784.00 yuan with a decline of 1.21% [1] - Demand remains sluggish in the Asian fuel oil market, with Northeast Asian refineries experiencing slower sales [1] - Taiwan's Formosa Petrochemical's 76,000 barrels per day residue fluid catalytic cracking unit is under maintenance until the end of October, impacting supply [1] Group 2 - High sulfur fuel oil prices are influenced by ongoing sanctions and recent attacks on Russian refineries, leading to a significant increase in high sulfur exports to India [2] - Singapore's fuel oil inventory has decreased by 4.2%, while ARA and Fujairah inventories have also seen reductions [2] - The EU is expected to introduce the 19th round of sanctions against Russia in the coming weeks, which will be a key focus for high sulfur fuel oil [2]