国泰君安期货·能源化工 燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2025年9月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 本周观点总结 01 供应 02 需求 03 库存 04 价格及价差 05 炼厂开工 全球炼厂检修 国内炼厂产量与商品量 国内外燃料油需求数据 全球燃料油现货库存 亚太区域现货FOB价格 欧洲区域现货FOB价格 美国地区燃料油现货价格 纸货与衍生品价格 燃料油现货价差 全球燃料油裂解价差 全球燃料油纸货月差 进出口 06 国内燃料油进出口数据 全球高硫燃料油进出口数据 全球低硫燃料油进出口数据 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 本周燃料油、低硫燃料油观点：FU继续强势，Hi-5价差收缩 | | 本周燃料油价格大幅上涨，价格重心逐步来到两月高点。高硫方面，市场成交有小幅好转，升贴水有所上升，中东发运量维持高位，但俄罗 斯的出口仍在下降，同时近期由于袭击和制裁问题导致俄罗 ...

Group 1 - Fuel oil futures main contract showed weak fluctuations, closing at 2784.00 yuan with a decline of 1.21% [1] - Demand remains sluggish in the Asian fuel oil market, with Northeast Asian refineries experiencing slower sales [1] - Taiwan's Formosa Petrochemical's 76,000 barrels per day residue fluid catalytic cracking unit is under maintenance until the end of October, impacting supply [1] Group 2 - High sulfur fuel oil prices are influenced by ongoing sanctions and recent attacks on Russian refineries, leading to a significant increase in high sulfur exports to India [2] - Singapore's fuel oil inventory has decreased by 4.2%, while ARA and Fujairah inventories have also seen reductions [2] - The EU is expected to introduce the 19th round of sanctions against Russia in the coming weeks, which will be a key focus for high sulfur fuel oil [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: August 17, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Liang Kefang [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - This week, fuel oil prices continued to decline until a rebound over the weekend. Middle East high-sulfur fuel oil exports have been increasing in August, while imports in the Middle East and China remain low due to weak power generation and refining demand, resulting in weak high-sulfur prices in Asia. In the low-sulfur market, short-term spot supplies in the Asia-Pacific region are still abundant. Kuwait and Indonesia have increased their low-sulfur exports to the Asia-Pacific this month, and Japanese refineries are gradually resuming production, which will further increase spot supplies and suppress spot prices in the Asia-Pacific. In the domestic market, the newly issued export quotas are the core factor affecting the market trend. If the quota is too low, it may support short-term prices; if the quota increases significantly year-on-year, it means that future port spot supplies will remain abundant, and the prices of near-month contracts will continue to be suppressed [4]. - Valuation: FU: 2650 - 2800; LU: 3400 - 3500 [4]. - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: Follow crude oil and remain weak in the short term. 2) Inter - term: The contango structure of the near - end of FU and LU will continue. 3) Inter - variety: The FU crack spread has fallen to the historical average but may still have a small downward space; the LU - FU spread will remain high in the short term [4]. Summary by Directory Supply - Refinery Operation: The report presents data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil: atmospheric and vacuum distillation), independent refineries, and major refineries over the years [6]. - Global Refinery Maintenance: Data on the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 to 2025 are provided [9][11][13][14]. - Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume: Data on the monthly production of fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and domestic commercial volume of fuel oil in China from 2018 to 2025 are shown [20]. Demand - Domestic and Foreign Fuel Oil Demand Data: Data on the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the sales volume of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore, and the apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 to 2025 are presented [23]. Inventory - Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory: Data on the spot inventories of fuel oil in Singapore, European ARA, Fujairah, and the United States from 2018 to 2025 are provided [27][29][30]. Price and Spread - Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, Singapore, and other places from 2018 to 2025 are presented [35][36][37]. - European Regional Spot FOB Prices: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, Northwest Europe, and other places from 2018 to 2025 are provided [39][40][42]. - US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Prices: Data on the spot prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, New York Harbor, and other places from 2018 to 2025 are presented [45]. - Paper and Derivative Prices: Data on the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil swaps, and Singapore 380 bunker fuel swaps are provided [48]. - Fuel Oil Spot Spread: Data on the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and the viscosity spread in Singapore from 2018 to 2025 are presented [57][59]. - Global Fuel Oil Crack Spread: Data on the crack spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2019 to 2025 are provided [61][63][64]. - Global Fuel Oil Paper Month Spread: Data on the month spreads of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2023 to 2025 are presented [68][69]. Import and Export - Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 to 2025 are presented [73][75]. - Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global high - sulfur fuel oil in different regions from 2018 to 2025 are presented [78]. - Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions from 2018 to 2025 are presented [80]. Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - Spot Market Internal - External Spreads: Data on the internal - external spreads of 380 spot, 0.5% spot, FU, and LU against the Singapore market from 2021 to 2025 are presented [83][87][90]. - Analysis of Spreads: This week, both domestic and foreign spot and futures prices generally declined. The weakness of FU led to a narrowing of its premium over the external market. For low - sulfur fuel oil, due to increased production and exports from domestic refineries and poor bunker demand, the number of domestic warehouse receipts remained high, and LU weakened compared with the previous period, resulting in a gradual decline in its premium over Singapore spot [84]. - FU and LU Position and Volume Changes: Data on the trading volumes and open interests of fuel oil main - continuous, low - sulfur fuel oil continuous, and their corresponding first - month contracts from 2020 to 2025 are presented [94][96][99]. - FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes: Data on the quantity changes of FU and LU warehouse receipts from 2020 to 2025 are presented [105][106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil will mainly show a narrow - range fluctuation, with LU stronger than FU. Given the current high global refinery operating rate, the supply of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil will increase marginally. The recovery of Middle Eastern refineries has significantly boosted the global high - sulfur supply, and the positive factors from marine fuel and power generation demands have been fully priced in the market. Recently, the high - sulfur transactions in the Singapore market have weakened. For low - sulfur fuel oil, although the maintenance of Brazilian refineries has basically ended, some spot goods have not been exported to the Asia - Pacific region, so the short - term low - sulfur price will remain stable. In the domestic market, the production scheduling of major refineries is gradually recovering. With sufficient quotas, exports in June have increased significantly, and it is expected that the scale will remain stable in July and August. The domestic low - sulfur fuel oil will continue to weaken month - on - month [4]. - Valuation: FU is in the range of 2800 - 3000, and LU is in the range of 3500 - 3700 [4]. - Strategies: (1) Unilateral: Follow the upward - trending oscillation of crude oil. (2) Inter - period: The back structure of FU and LU will continue, but the increase in near - term supply will keep the monthly spread at a low level. (3) Inter - variety: The FU cracking spread has fallen to the historical average level; the LU - FU spread will remain high in the short term [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Supply - **Refinery Operating Rate**: The document presents the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil: atmospheric and vacuum distillation), independent refineries, and major refineries from 2016 - 2025 [6]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: It shows the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025 [9][11][13][14]. - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume**: It includes the monthly production of fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and domestic commercial volume of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025 [20]. 3.2 Demand - **Domestic and Foreign Fuel Oil Demand Data**: It shows the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the monthly sales of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025 [23]. 3.3 Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: It includes the inventory data of heavy oil in Singapore, fuel oil in European ARA, heavy distillates in Fujairah, and residual fuel oil in the US from 2018 - 2025 [27][29][30]. 3.4 Price and Spread - **Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore, Fujairah, and other places from 2018 - 2025 [35][36][37]. - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It includes the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, north - western Europe, and other places, as well as the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, and the cargo price of high - sulfur fuel oil in New York Harbor from 2018 - 2025 [39][40][42][44][45]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: It shows the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in north - western Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of FU and LU contracts from 2021 - 2025 [47][49][52]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spread**: It includes the viscosity spread and high - low sulfur spread in Singapore from 2018 - 2025 [55][56]. - **Global Fuel Oil Cracking Spread**: It shows the cracking spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and north - western Europe from 2019 - 2025 [58][60][61]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread**: It includes the monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and north - western Europe from 2022 - 2025 [65][66]. 3.5 Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 [71][73][74]. - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global high - sulfur fuel oil in different regions [76]. - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions [78]. 3.6 Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - **Internal - External Spreads in the Spot and Futures Markets**: It shows the internal - external spreads of 380 and 0.5% fuel oil in the spot and futures markets, as well as the internal - external spreads of FU and LU contracts from 2021 - 2025 [81][85][86][87][88][89]. - **Changes in FU and LU Positions and Trading Volumes**: It shows the trading volumes and positions of fuel oil main contracts, low - sulfur fuel oil contracts from 2020 - 2025 [91][93][96][98][99]. - **Changes in FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantities**: It shows the changes in the warehouse receipt quantities of FU and LU from 2020 - 2025 [102][103].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Weekly Review**: Global fuel oil prices had a narrower fluctuation range this week. After falling at the beginning of the week, they rebounded slightly, and the crack spreads and monthly spreads declined slightly from their highs [4]. - **Weekly Outlook**: Fuel oil prices rebounded after falling at the beginning of the week, with the overall price changes narrowing compared to the previous week. However, the strengthening of crude oil prices caused the fuel oil crack spreads to decline from their highs. Currently, supply - side changes are dominating price movements. High - sulfur fuel oil's monthly spreads and crack spreads are likely to avoid significant declines, while for low - sulfur fuel oil, the price, crack spreads, and monthly spreads of the domestic LU may be suppressed [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - **Refinery Operations**: Data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil: atmospheric and vacuum distillation), independent refineries, and major refineries are presented, covering multiple years from 2016 - 2025 [6]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: Data on the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units are provided, spanning from 2018 - 2025 [9][11][13][14]. - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commodity Volume**: Data on China's monthly fuel oil production, low - sulfur fuel oil production, and fuel oil commodity volume are shown, covering multiple years from 2018 - 2025 [18]. 3.2 Demand - **Domestic and Foreign Fuel Oil Demand Data**: Data on Singapore's monthly fuel oil bunker sales, China's monthly fuel oil apparent consumption, and China's monthly marine fuel oil actual consumption are presented, covering multiple years from 2018 - 2025 [21]. 3.3 Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: Data on the inventories of heavy oil in Singapore, fuel oil in European ARA, heavy distillates in Fujairah, residual fuel oil in the US, etc. are provided, covering multiple years from 2018 - 2025 [24][26][27]. 3.4 Price and Spreads - **Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Fujeirah, Singapore, and other locations are presented, covering multiple years from 2018 - 2025 [31][32][33]. - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, the Mediterranean, and other locations are provided, covering multiple years from 2018 - 2025 [36][37][39]. - **US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, high - sulfur fuel oil cargo prices in the New York Harbor, etc. are presented, covering multiple years from 2018 - 2025 [42]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: Data on the swap prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Northwest Europe and Singapore are provided, as well as the prices of FU and LU contracts [44][50]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spreads**: Data on the price spreads between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and the viscosity spreads are presented, covering multiple years from 2018 - 2025 [53][55]. - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spreads**: Data on the crack spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe are provided, covering multiple years from 2019 - 2025 [59][61][62]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spreads**: Data on the monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe are presented, covering the period from 2023 - 2025 [66][67]. 3.5 Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on China's monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) are presented, covering multiple years from 2018 - 2025 [72][74][75]. - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly changes in global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in regions such as China, the Middle East, and the US are provided [77]. - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly changes in global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in regions such as Singapore + Malaysia, China, and the US are presented [79].

Company and Report Information - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: May 11, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Liang Kefang from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] Core Viewpoints - **Weekly Review**: Global fuel oil prices rebounded from the bottom this week, with cracks and spreads strengthening slightly. The strength comparison between high and low sulfur fuels showed marginal changes, with low-sulfur valuation remaining slightly stronger than high-sulfur [4]. - **Weekly Outlook**: Fuel oil prices generally rebounded steadily from the bottom after a significant gap down following crude oil prices. Currently, crude oil is the core factor dragging down fuel oil valuation, with OPEC's production increase and market concerns about overseas demand being the most obvious negatives. From the perspective of fuel oil's own fundamentals, due to ongoing major refinery maintenance globally and the current peak season for marine and power generation demand, the overall supply-demand structure is relatively stable. Therefore, once crude oil price trends stabilize, fuel oil price fluctuations are expected to be dominated by its own fundamental situation. For high-sulfur fuel oil, the export volume to the Middle East has remained stable in recent weeks, but it should be noted that the premium of bunkering prices in the marine fuel market has begun to decline, and China's secondary raw material demand may be weaker than in previous years, which will drag down the price performance of high-sulfur fuel oil. For low-sulfur fuel oil, the export volume to Africa has increased significantly, partially offsetting the positive impact of the previous decline in exports from Brazil, Indonesia, etc. However, due to the weak marine fuel demand and loose supply in the low-sulfur market from February to April, resulting in a relatively low valuation, coupled with the recent strengthening of the bunkering price in the Singapore market relative to the FOB price, which may indicate an improvement in marine fuel demand, the negative impact of the export increase is not expected to lead to an obvious downward trend in prices [4]. Summary by Directory Supply - **Refinery Operations**: Data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries, independent refineries, and major refineries are presented in graphical form, showing their weekly trends from 2016 - 2025 [6]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: Graphs show the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025 [8][10][12][14]. - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commodity Volume**: Graphs display the monthly production and commodity volume of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025, as well as the monthly production of low-sulfur fuel oil in Chinese refineries from 2021 - 2025 [16]. Demand - **Domestic and Overseas Fuel Oil Demand Data**: Graphs show the monthly sales volume of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore, the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China, and the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025 [19]. Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: Graphs present the inventory data of heavy oil in Singapore, fuel oil in European ARA, heavy distillates in Fujairah, residual fuel oil in the US, etc., from 2018 - 2025 [22][24][25]. Price and Spreads - **Asia-Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Graphs show the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore, 3.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, etc., from 2018 - 2025 [30][31][32]. - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Graphs display the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, 3.5% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, etc., from 2018 - 2025 [34][35][37]. - **US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Prices**: Although specific data is not fully presented, it is mentioned that relevant price information is included [40]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: Graphs show the prices of high and low-sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of FU and LU contracts from 2021 - 2025 [42][43][46]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spreads**: Graphs present the price spreads between high and low sulfur fuels in Singapore, as well as the viscosity spreads in Singapore from 2018 - 2025 [49][51]. - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spreads**: Graphs show the crack spreads of high and low sulfur fuels in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2025 [53][55][56]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spreads**: Graphs display the monthly spreads of high and low sulfur fuels in Singapore and Northwest Europe [59][60][61]. Imports and Exports - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Graphs show the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 [66][68][69]. - **Global High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Graphs present the weekly changes in global high-sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes by region [71]. - **Global Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Graphs show the weekly changes in global low-sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes by region [73].