Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical news is volatile, causing significant price fluctuations in oil, but the overall trend is upward. Attention should be paid to the rhythm [1][2]. - High - and low - sulfur fuel oils are supported by the cost of crude oil and a tightening supply, and are expected to remain at high levels. However, the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends should be noted [2]. - With the increase in domestic temperature, the demand for asphalt is gradually recovering. It is expected that asphalt prices will be strong, but it is necessary to be wary of the short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends [2][3]. - The polyester industry chain fluctuates with the cost side. The market is waiting for further developments in the situation. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and equipment changes [3]. - Natural rubber and butadiene rubber show different trends. The price of natural rubber is supported by alternative procurement, and the inventory is gradually increasing. Butadiene rubber fluctuates strongly under geopolitical influence [3][5]. - The inventory of methanol is starting to decline, but the supply recovery of Iranian equipment may suppress price increases. The Iranian situation is unclear, which may cause large - scale fluctuations in the market [5]. - The supply of polyolefins is expected to remain low, and the demand is gradually being released. However, the short - term geopolitical risk has compressed the profit space of downstream products, and subsequent demand growth may be hindered [5][6]. - PVC exports will supplement domestic demand. The overall short - selling pressure remains strong, and attention should be paid to the fulfillment of export orders and the Middle East situation [6]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI May contract closed down $1.50 to $101.38 per barrel, a 1.46% decline; Brent May contract closed up $5.57 to $118.35 per barrel, a 4.94% increase; SC2605 closed at 693.9 yuan per barrel, down 55.4 yuan per barrel, a 7.39% decline. Geopolitical news is volatile, and the overall price center is rising. The API data shows that for the week ending March 27, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 1.026 billion barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.21 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.04 million barrels [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 closed down 3.79% at 4446 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 closed down 4.11% at 5159 yuan per ton. Geopolitical conflicts have limited direct impact on low - sulfur fuel oil supply, but factors such as the increase in overseas diesel cracking and freight rates have affected the supply. It is expected to remain at a high level, but the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends should be noted [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2606 closed down 1.53% at 4512 yuan per ton. With the increase in temperature, demand is gradually recovering. It is expected that the overall demand will increase in April, and prices are expected to be strong, but the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends should be noted [2][3]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 6684 yuan per ton, down 1.24%; EG2605 closed at 5218 yuan per ton, down 2.63%. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. The industrial chain has different situations, and it fluctuates with the cost side. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and equipment changes [3]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contract RU2605 fell 195 yuan per ton to 16345 yuan per ton; NR fell 240 yuan per ton to 13605 yuan per ton; BR fell 375 yuan per ton to 17350 yuan per ton. The production of natural rubber in Thailand in 2025 increased by 0.6% to 4.84 million tons. The overseas production area is in a low - yield period, and domestic production areas are gradually starting to harvest. The price is supported by alternative procurement, and the inventory is gradually increasing. Butadiene rubber fluctuates strongly [3][5]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 3365 yuan per ton. The MTO arrival volume is at a low level, and the inventory is starting to decline. The supply recovery of Iranian equipment may suppress price increases, and the Iranian situation is unclear [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 9000 - 9300 yuan per ton. The supply is expected to remain low, and the demand is gradually being released. However, the short - term geopolitical risk has compressed the profit space of downstream products, and subsequent demand growth may be hindered [5][6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, the prices in East, North, and South China markets decreased. PVC exports will supplement domestic demand, and the overall short - selling pressure remains strong. Attention should be paid to the fulfillment of export orders and the Middle East situation [6]. Market News - Iran's President Pezeshkiyan reiterated Tehran's willingness to end the war, but on certain conditions. Even if the conflict ends quickly, it will take weeks or months to restore the global energy transportation system [8]. - OPEC's crude oil production in March dropped to the lowest level since the peak of the COVID - 19 pandemic in June 2020. The API data shows that for the week ending March 27, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 1.026 billion barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.21 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.04 million barrels. The U.S. has lifted sanctions on Russian crude oil and promised to release strategic reserves, but these measures can only make up for the supply gap in a limited time [8]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report provides price trend charts of multiple main contracts, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, and others, covering the time range from 2022 to 2026 [10][13][16][19][22][24][26]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The report presents basis trend charts of multiple main contracts, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [27][31][33]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report shows spread trend charts of multiple inter - period contracts, including fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [36][38][42][44][46][48]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The report provides spread and ratio trend charts of multiple inter - variety contracts, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, B - W spreads of crude oil, high - and low - sulfur fuel oil spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [51][54][56][58]. - **Production Profits**: The report shows production profit and processing fee trend charts of multiple products, including LLDPE, PP, PTA, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol [60][61]. Team Member Introduction - **Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute**: Zhong Meiyan, with over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research, has won multiple awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises and providing risk management and investment strategies [65]. - **Director of Energy and Chemical Research**: Du Bingqin, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain, has won multiple awards and is often interviewed by the media [66]. - **Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst**: Di Yilin, who has won multiple awards, is mainly engaged in the research of natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, bottle chips and other futures varieties, and is good at data analysis [67]. - **Methanol/Propylene/Pure Benzene PE/PP/PVC Analyst**: Peng Haibo, with years of experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading, has passed the CFA Level 3 exam and combines financial theory with industrial operations [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, recommend a bearish strategic allocation, widen the Platts north - south different oil - type spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [5]. - For urea, suggest a short - selling allocation, and expect short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [8]. - For rubber, suggest flexible trading, taking profits on butadiene rubber out - of - the - money call options, starting to allocate put options, and continuing to hold the long NR main contract and short RU2609 position [14]. - For PVC, although the short - term fundamentals do not fully reflect the supply shock, the narrative logic turns to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which may offset the negative impact of the cancellation of export tax rebates [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, due to the continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [21]. - For polyethylene, wait for the marginal increase in the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and then short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract reverse spread at high prices [24]. - For polypropylene, in the short term, geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [28]. - For PX, although the short - term increase is large, the valuation is expected to rise as the raw - material shortage logic further develops [30]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is expected to be difficult to rise, but PXN may rise significantly [33]. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory is expected to decline, but the short - term increase is large, so be aware of risks [36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 22.40 yuan/barrel, a decline of 2.94%, at 740.60 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 175.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.79%, at 4446.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 221.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.11%, at 5159.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Recommend a bearish strategic allocation, widen the Platts north - south different oil - type spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by 159.00 yuan/ton, reported at 3229 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 104 yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [5]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Information**: In the spot market, Shandong, Henan, and Northeast China had no price changes; Hubei decreased by 10 yuan/ton; Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton; Shanxi increased by 20 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 8 yuan/ton, reported at 1874 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest a short - selling allocation, and expect short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [8]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Information**: Butadiene was strong in the spot market due to import demand from Japan and South Korea. As of March 26, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 69.26%, up 0.04 percentage points from last week and 1.17 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 77.10%, down 0.07 percentage points from last week and 5.52 percentage points from the same period last year. The export orders declined, and the tire inventory pressure increased. As of March 22, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.36 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons, a decline of 0.3%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 921,000 tons, an increase of 0.1%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 439,000 tons, a decrease of 1% [10][12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest flexible trading, taking profits on butadiene rubber out - of - the - money call options, starting to allocate put options, and continuing to hold the long NR main contract and short RU2609 position [14]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 198 yuan, reported at 5353 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5220 (- 230) yuan/ton, the basis was - 133 (- 32) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 106 (+ 2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 80.9%, up 0.8% month - on - month; the calcium carbide method was 85.2%, up 0.5% month - on - month; the ethylene method was 70.7%, up 1.5% month - on - month. The overall downstream operating rate was 46%, up 4.3% month - on - month. The in - plant inventory was 339,000 tons (- 27,000 tons), and the social inventory was 1.374 million tons (+ 3,000 tons) [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the short - term fundamentals do not fully reflect the supply shock, the narrative logic turns to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which may offset the negative impact of the cancellation of export tax rebates [18]. 3.6 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side East China pure benzene was 8940 yuan/ton, with no change. The closing price of the pure benzene active contract was 8790 yuan/ton, with no change. The pure benzene basis was 150 yuan/ton, an increase of 272 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 10750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the closing price of the styrene active contract was 10597 yuan/ton, a decrease of 192 yuan/ton; the basis was 153 yuan/ton, an increase of 42 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was - 49.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33.5 yuan/ton; the EB non - integrated plant profit was - 268.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.95%, a decrease of 0.51%. The Jiangsu port inventory was 168,400 tons, an increase of 59,000 tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 40.67%, a decrease of 0.27%. The PS operating rate was 51.40%, a decrease of 0.20%, the EPS operating rate was 63.27%, an increase of 2.27%, and the ABS operating rate was 62.60%, a decrease of 4.50% [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to the continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [21]. 3.7 Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8614 yuan/ton, a decrease of 190 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 225 yuan/ton. The basis was 86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.57%, a decrease of 1.41% month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory was 587,900 tons, an increase of 19,600 tons month - on - month, and the trader inventory was 56,300 tons, an increase of 1,500 tons month - on - month. The downstream average operating rate was 40%, an increase of 2.41% month - on - month. The LL5 - 9 spread was 149 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait for the marginal increase in the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and then short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract reverse spread at high prices [24]. 3.8 Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 9103 yuan/ton, a decrease of 166 yuan/ton. The spot price was 9300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was 197 yuan/ton, an increase of 116 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 67.65%, a decrease of 2.72% month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory was 499,700 tons, a decrease of 96,500 tons month - on - month, the trader inventory was 177,800 tons, a decrease of 15,840 tons month - on - month, and the port inventory was 69,600 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons month - on - month. The downstream average operating rate was 46.36%, an increase of 0.65% month - on - month. The LL - PP spread was - 489 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 366 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [28]. 3.9 PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 140 yuan, reported at 9700 yuan, and the 5 - 7 spread was 18 yuan (+ 20). The Chinese PX load was 84%, a decrease of 0.6% month - on - month; the Asian load was 72.7%, a decrease of 2.1% month - on - month. Some plants restarted or shut down. The PTA load was 81.8%, an increase of 1% month - on - month. In March, South Korea's PX exports to China were 311,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28,000 tons. The inventory at the end of February was 4.8 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons month - on - month. The PXN was 120 US dollars (- 11), the South Korean PX - MX was 112 US dollars (- 3), and the naphtha crack spread was 364 US dollars (- 4) [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the short - term increase is large, the valuation is expected to rise as the raw - material shortage logic further develops [30]. 3.10 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 84 yuan, reported at 6684 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 96 yuan (+ 4). The PTA load was 81.8%, an increase of 1% month - on - month. The downstream load was 86.8%, a decrease of 0.8% month - on - month. The social inventory on March 27 was 2.8 million tons, an increase of 69,000 tons month - on - month. The on - disk processing fee increased by 8 yuan to 321 yuan [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is expected to be difficult to rise, but PXN may rise significantly [33]. 3.11 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 141 yuan, reported at 5218 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 116 yuan (- 9). The ethylene glycol load was 65.8%, a decrease of 0.6% month - on - month. The downstream load was 86.8%, a decrease of 0.8% month - on - month. The import arrival forecast was 117,000 tons, and the East China departure on March 30 was 12,000 tons. The port inventory was 1.075 million tons, an increase of 36,000 tons month - on - month. The naphtha - based production profit was - 3137 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 2727 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 1176 yuan. The cost - side ethylene rose to 1500 US dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal powder price rebounded to 690 yuan [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inventory is expected to decline, but the short - term increase is large, so be aware of risks [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term overseas geopolitical situation may continue to suppress the stock index trend, but after a sharp market decline, the possibility of policy support increases, and the further decline space of the stock index is limited [1] - Multiple factors such as allocation demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure from fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the bond market oscillating [1] - Geopolitical factors in the Middle East cause market sentiment to fluctuate, affecting the prices of various commodities, and most commodities show oscillating trends [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock index**: Short - term geopolitical situation suppresses the trend, but the decline space is limited. Pay attention to long - position layout opportunities after the mitigation of geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East [1] - **Bonds**: Oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Maintain an oscillating trend due to the complex Middle East situation [1] - **Aluminum**: The price rises due to the attack on UAE aluminum industry. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities as Middle East supply disturbances support the price [1] - **Alumina**: The price is supported to rise, but the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited [1] - **Zinc**: With a weak fundamental outlook, it is considered for short - position allocation. The reversal depends on European natural gas prices [1] - **Nickel**: The price may oscillate at a high level due to Indonesia's policy and cost concerns. Operate with short - term low - buying and control risks [1] - **Stainless steel**: Oscillate. Pay attention to demand acceptance and consider short - term low - buying opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Considered relatively strong in the short term due to potential production impact from diesel supply shortages in major producing countries [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: Concerns about stagflation support price rebounds, but geopolitical risks may cause short - term fluctuations, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [1] - **Platinum and palladium**: Geopolitical news drives price rebounds, but geopolitical escalation and a strong dollar may suppress prices. They are expected to oscillate widely before the Middle East situation is clear [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes production, demand is weak, and explicit inventory is being depleted [1] - **Polysilicon**: Faces liquidity risks [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Entering the de - stocking cycle, with limited total inventory pressure and a certain discount in futures prices, but demand is average [1] Ferrous metals - **Rebar**: Oscillate. Price drivers come from cost support and low futures price valuations [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both strong and in the de - stocking cycle, but inventory is high. Consider an oscillating approach and gradually enter a new round of positive arbitrage positions [1] - **Iron ore**: The price may oscillate at a high level. Avoid chasing highs or lows and operate within a range [1] - **Coking coal**: There may be a rapid and sharp upward correction, but beware of risks from the development of the war. Exit long positions in time if the Strait is navigable [1] - **Coke**: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil**: High crude oil prices and increased US EPA quotas may push up the far - month price center. Pay attention to relevant policies [1] - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten. Domestically, the price is expected to rise with demand recovery and reduced planting expectations [1] - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a structural surplus. Domestically, the supply is also abundant, and the price is expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1] - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate and correct in the short term, but the correction range is limited [1] - **Soybean**: The May soybean arrival is sufficient, and there is delivery pressure. Wait for the callback to layout long positions in the far - month contracts [1] - **Paper pulp**: The basic situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Log**: The price is expected to rise due to the impact of the US - Iran war on the outer - market quotation [1] - **Live pigs**: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, and production capacity needs further release [1] Energy and chemicals - **Fuel oil**: Supply - side production cuts, transportation disruptions, and negotiation news disturbances affect the price [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports on the domestic market is small, and it is relatively weakly affected in the energy sector [1] - **Natural rubber**: Supported by raw material costs, with positive market sentiment, normal climate in the producing areas, and a relatively high futures - spot price difference [1] - **BR rubber**: Affected by the US - Iran situation, prices rise, and the inventory may turn to de - stocking [1] - **PTA**: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the Asian polyester industry chain may face production decline risks [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price rises due to raw material shortages [1] - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical factors drive the price to strengthen, and Northeast Asian refineries face supply shortages [1] - **Styrene**: Supply shortages of ethylene and benzene lead to profit inversion for non - integrated producers, and the supply - side crisis intensifies [1] - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - inversion and cost [1] - **Methanol**: Iranian imports are affected, but domestic production is high and inventory is at a historical high [1] - **PE and PP**: Geopolitical tensions limit raw material supply, and the fundamentals are weak [1] - **PVC**: Future prospects are optimistic as capacity is expected to be cleared, but ethylene - based production faces raw material shortages [1] - **PG**: The price is relatively strong, but the demand side is short - term bearish, and there is a divergence between the domestic and international markets [1] Others - **Container shipping on the European route**: Affected by the war, the price is generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes multiple industries including oil products, aromatics - polyester, coal chemical, salt chemical, and non - ferrous metals. Geopolitical factors, especially the situation in the Middle East, have a significant impact on the supply and price of various commodities. Market sentiment is complex and volatile, and different industries face different supply - demand situations and price trends. [3][4][6] Summary by Directory 01 Oil Products Crude Oil - **Logic**: Geopolitical news dominates market fluctuations, and Trump has postponed energy strikes. - **Fundamentals**: The shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz is low, and the export of Russian oil is restricted, leading to a tightening of global crude oil supply. The recovery of shut - down production capacity is uncertain. - **Macro**: The Fed maintains the interest rate at 3.5% - 3.75%, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut is rising. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is tense, and the macro - sentiment is weak. [3] Fuel Oil - **Logic**: Funds are flowing out, and the high - sulfur crack spread is falling. - **Fundamentals**: High - sulfur fuel oil has limited follow - up ability despite strong crude oil. The low - sulfur fuel oil is in a tight supply - demand situation, with supply being tight and demand shifting to Asia. It will continue to be strong but may experience a correction. [6][7] LPG - **Logic**: Geopolitical factors cause repeated disturbances, and there is short - term support. - **Fundamentals**: The international oil price rebound drives the LPG price up. The supply gap in the Middle East cannot be quickly filled, and the price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. [8] 02 Aromatics - Polyester PTA - **Logic**: Pay attention to geopolitical progress, and the downstream load has slightly decreased. - **Fundamentals**: The TA2605 contract has risen, the spot basis has strengthened, the PTA load has increased, and the downstream polyester load has decreased. Mainstream polyester filament manufacturers have increased production cuts. [9][10] 03 Coal Chemical Urea - **Logic**: The sentiment is generally stable, with support, but beware of policy pressure. - **Fundamentals**: The positive overseas sentiment and domestic policy pressure offset each other. The inventory has decreased, and the price is expected to remain stable. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is stable. The international price is rising, but the domestic - international price transmission is limited. [11] Methanol - **Logic**: There is still geopolitical uncertainty, but short - term import shortages provide support, and it maintains high - level operation. - **Fundamentals**: The MA2605 contract has risen. The price in the port area has rebounded, and the basis has strengthened. The import in April is expected to be low, and the port inventory may further decrease. [12] 04 Salt Chemical Soda Ash - **Logic**: The cost has increased, but the supply - demand pressure is high. - **Fundamentals**: The increase in coal prices supports the bottom price, but the supply - demand situation lacks effective support. The inventory is at a high level, and the rebound requires supply - side production cuts. [13] Glass - **Logic**: The situation of weak supply and demand continues. - **Fundamentals**: The glass inventory continues to decline, but the market sentiment has cooled. The supply is at a low level, and the price has support at a low level. The improvement in the second - hand housing market may drive the demand for glass. [14][15] Caustic Soda - **Logic**: The supply - demand side has strong support, but the futures valuation is high. - **Fundamentals**: The manufacturer's inventory pressure is small, and the supply - demand support is strong. The impact of the Strait of Hormuz blockade on the supply and demand of caustic soda needs to be continuously monitored. [16] 05 Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Logic**: Shanghai copper has a slight increase. - **Fundamentals**: The situation in the Middle East is complex, and the market sentiment changes. The domestic inventory is decreasing, and the cost of copper is supported. The long - term demand for copper in the new energy transformation is positive. [17] Gold - **Logic**: It fluctuates strongly. - **Fundamentals**: The uncertainty of monetary policy and the situation in the Middle East affect the US dollar index. If the US dollar index weakens, it may drive the gold price up. [18] Silver - **Logic**: It fluctuates strongly. - **Fundamentals**: The market focuses on the situation in the Middle East and the Fed's interpretation of inflation expectations. The silver price has temporarily escaped the low point but still faces uncertainties. [19] Appendix: Daily Data Monitoring of Each Sector The appendix provides daily data monitoring of various commodities, including price changes, basis, spreads, and inventory data, which helps to understand the market trends of different commodities. [21][22][23]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [4] - Fuel oil: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [4] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [4] - Asphalt: ★★★, meaning a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [4] Core Views - The short-term oil price has a high risk of two-way fluctuations, and the long-term core variable determining the oil price trend is whether the Strait of Hormuz can remain open [1] - The geopolitical situation is the core of trading, and any progress in the peace talks will drive the market to form a wide-range shock pattern [2] - The asphalt fundamentals have marginal improvement expectations, and the BU price trend will follow the oil price, but the downside space is expected to be limited [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The US government proposed a 15-item conflict-ending plan to Iran through Pakistan, but Iran doubts the US's sincerity due to previous attacks and troop deployments [1] - The capacity of alternative oil pipelines in the Middle East still has a huge gap compared with the normal shipping volume through the strait, and the release of strategic oil reserves by IEA member countries is only for emergency buffering [1] - The short-term oil price has a high risk of two-way fluctuations, and the long-term core variable determining the oil price trend is whether the Strait of Hormuz can remain open [1] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The US proposed a peace talk plan to Iran, leading to a significant decline in fuel oil prices [2] - The logistics suppression of supply has not been lifted, and the supply gap in the Middle East cannot be fully hedged [2] - The approaching summer power generation peak may bring more fuel oil demand due to the LNG supply gap [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil production has decreased due to supply reductions in Kuwait and other overseas refineries, as well as domestic raw material issues, and the high crack spread of refined oil supports the low-sulfur trend [2] - The geopolitical situation is the core of trading, and any progress in the peace talks will drive the market to form a wide-range shock pattern [2] Asphalt - Domestic refining enterprises are worried about future imported raw materials, and some refineries have started or plan to reduce device capacity utilization, leading to a corresponding contraction in asphalt supply [3] - The asphalt production plan for March has been revised down, and the production in April has further declined to an absolute low in recent years [3] - The sample refinery's shipment volume has decreased significantly year-on-year and month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year decline has further expanded [3] - The refinery inventory has decreased month-on-month, the social inventory has turned negative year-on-year, and the overall commercial inventory level is low [3] - The asphalt fundamentals have marginal improvement expectations, and the BU price trend will follow the oil price, but the downside space is expected to be limited [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various energy and chemical futures, including rubber, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, etc. It indicates that most commodities are in a state of wide - range oscillation, high - level oscillation, or interval operation, and the market is significantly affected by geopolitical factors [2]. - For example, short - term price fluctuations of some commodities are affected by the decline of international night - market energy prices, but the domestic fundamentals provide support for the downside space [10][33][36]. - The impact of geopolitical conflicts on the supply and demand of commodities is a key factor, such as the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on the shipping of raw materials and the production and export of products [13][71]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Rubber - **Market Trend**: Wide - range oscillation [2][4] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the rubber main contract increased, the trading volume decreased, the open interest decreased, and the basis and some price differences changed [4]. - **Industry News**: From January to February 2026, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires increased year - on - year, but the export price decreased. The export regions were significantly differentiated, with a shift towards emerging markets. It is expected that the export volume of all - steel tires in March will decline [5][6][7]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Trend**: Wide - range oscillation due to repeated geopolitical situations [2][8] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the cis - butadiene rubber main contract decreased, the trading volume increased, the open interest decreased, and the basis and price differences changed [8]. - **Industry News**: As of March 18, 2026, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises decreased. It is expected that the price of synthetic rubber will oscillate widely in the short term [8][10]. LLDPE and PP - **Market Trend**: LLDPE's start - up continues to decline, and cost transmission is not smooth; PP's C3 raw materials fluctuate greatly, and the spot price follows the increase slowly [2][12] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of LLDPE and PP futures decreased, the trading volume and open interest decreased, and the basis and price differences changed [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical factors lead to the strengthening of raw materials, and the cost of LLDPE increases. The demand for LLDPE's post - holiday mulch film is in line with the season, and the start - up of packaging film has recovered, but cost transmission takes time. For PP, the cost is strongly supported, and the demand has improved, but the PDH profit is at a low level [13]. Caustic Soda - **Market Trend**: Wide - range oscillation [2][16] - **Fundamental Data**: The 05 - contract futures price, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32 - alkali in Shandong, and the basis are provided [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The caustic soda futures premium is large, and the 04 - contract is about to be delivered, which will suppress the market. In the long - term, the situation in the Middle East will affect the supply and demand of caustic soda. The market may oscillate widely in the short term [18]. Pulp - **Market Trend**: Oscillatory operation [2][21] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the pulp main contract increased during the day and decreased at night, the trading volume increased, the open interest decreased, and the basis and price differences changed [23]. - **Industry News**: The pulp futures price increased slightly, but the market trading was light, and the downstream paper mills' purchasing enthusiasm was not high. The price of household paper is expected to be stable [24][25]. Glass - **Market Trend**: The price of the original sheet is stable [26] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the glass futures decreased, the trading volume decreased, the open interest decreased, and the basis and price differences changed [27]. - **Market News**: The price of the domestic float glass market shows a trend of falling in the north and rising in the south, but the overall fluctuation range is limited, and the market trading is average [27]. Methanol - **Market Trend**: Wide - range oscillation [2][29] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the methanol main contract decreased, the trading volume decreased, the open interest decreased, and the basis and price differences changed [30]. - **Market News**: The methanol spot price index increased, and the port inventory decreased. It is expected that the methanol price will oscillate widely in the short term [32][33]. Urea - **Market Trend**: Interval operation [2][35] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the urea main contract decreased, the trading volume decreased, the open interest decreased, and the basis and price differences changed [36]. - **Industry News**: As of March 18, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises decreased. It is expected that the urea price will operate within an interval in the short term [36][38]. Styrene - **Market Trend**: High - level oscillation [2][39] - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of styrene futures contracts decreased, and the price differences and profits changed [39]. - **Market News**: Pure benzene and styrene are in high - level oscillation. The conflict has affected the supply and demand of pure benzene and styrene, and the port inventory may decrease [40]. Soda Ash - **Market Trend**: The spot market changes little [2][45] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the soda ash futures increased slightly, the trading volume decreased, the open interest decreased, and the basis and price differences changed [47]. - **Market News**: The domestic soda ash market is stable and oscillating, the enterprise equipment is operating stably, the downstream demand is average, and the price is expected to be stable [47]. LPG and Propylene - **Market Trend**: LPG has geopolitical risks and frequent supply disturbances; propylene's supply is expected to decrease due to geopolitical impacts on the cost side [2][49] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of LPG and propylene futures decreased, the trading volume and open interest changed, and the spot prices and price differences changed [49]. - **Market News**: The prices of CP paper goods increased, and there are many domestic PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [54][55]. PVC - **Market Trend**: Wide - range oscillation [2][57] - **Fundamental Data**: The 05 - contract futures price, the spot price in East China, the basis, and the 5 - 9 month spread are provided [57]. - **Market Analysis**: The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East affects the supply of PVC, and the domestic ethylene - based PVC production has decreased. The short - term basis converges, and the market is supported in the long - term [57]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market Trend**: Fuel oil continues to be weak, and short - term fluctuations continue to increase; low - sulfur fuel oil drops significantly, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to decline [2][59] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures decreased, the trading volume and open interest changed, and the spot prices and price differences changed [59]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Market Trend**: The oscillation center may move down, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances [2][61] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of container shipping index futures contracts changed, and the freight rates and shipping schedules of different carriers are provided [61][67]. - **Market Analysis**: The market is affected by geopolitical emotions. The supply and demand of shipping capacity and the change of freight rates are analyzed, and the short - term and long - term trends of the market are predicted [71][72][75]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Market Trend**: High - level fluctuations due to repeated geopolitical situations [2][78] - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of short - fiber and bottle - chip futures contracts decreased, and the basis, trading volume, open interest, and other data changed [78]. - **Market News**: The short - fiber futures price dropped, the spot price was stable or slightly decreased, and the sales rate was 52%. The bottle - chip factory price was mostly decreased, and the market trading atmosphere was average [78][79]. Pure Benzene - **Market Trend**: High - level oscillation [2][81] - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of pure benzene futures contracts decreased, and the price differences and inventory data changed [81]. - **Market News**: The pure benzene port inventory decreased, and the market trading was weak [82][83].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views - The core variable of oil price trends depends on the smooth passage of the global energy transportation route. Geopolitical conflicts show no sign of easing, and oil price fluctuations may intensify [1]. - Fuel oil is expected to follow crude oil, with a solid lower support, be easily affected by news, and show a wide - range oscillating pattern [2]. - The fundamentals of asphalt have marginal improvement expectations, and its direction will follow oil price fluctuations [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Trump issued a 48 - hour ultimatum to Iran, and Iran responded with a severe warning. The gap between alternative pipeline capacity and normal oil transport volume through the Strait of Hormuz is large. The release of strategic oil reserves by IEA member countries is for emergency buffering and has replenishment needs. The key to oil price is the strait's passage, and attention should be paid to whether energy infrastructure is directly attacked [1]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical tensions over the weekend led to a sharp rise in fuel oil prices. Supply from the Middle East decreased, and although there are some alternative supplies, they are insufficient. Domestic refinery operating rates declined, increasing import demand. Overseas, LNG gas field attacks increased the demand for fuel oil. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the attack on Fujairah Port increased Singapore's bunkering demand, and supply is limited [2]. Asphalt - The military conflict between the US, Israel and Iran continues, and the traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz is low. Asphalt refinery supply tightened, and production decreased. Downstream demand is expected to improve with rising temperatures. Refinery inventory decreased, and social inventory increased slightly, but both are at near - three - year lows. The asphalt's direction will follow oil price fluctuations [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides daily market information and strategy recommendations for various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, methanol, urea, rubber, PVC, pure benzene & styrene, polyethylene, polypropylene, PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol [2][3][6]. - Due to the ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, especially the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, it has a significant impact on the supply and price trends of energy and chemical products [18][21]. - Different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed accordingly [2][3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 38.50 yuan/barrel, or 5.41%, to 750.80 yuan/barrel [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a short - term bearish strategic allocation for crude oil; before the mid - year production increase in Libya, widen the price difference between different crude oil varieties at low prices; short the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil; short the INE - Brent cross - region spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by (43.00) yuan/ton, reported at 3132 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 11 yuan [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Since methanol already includes the current geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, take profits at high prices [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Northeast remained unchanged, while in Shanxi it decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at 19 yuan/ton. The main contract changed by - 18 yuan/ton, reported at 1841 yuan/ton [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: With a high expectation of the first - quarter production peak, although there are still positive expectations for domestic downstream demand, the domestic contradiction is not prominent. Consider short - selling at high prices. When the alternative valuation of urea reaches the limit, there may be short - term positive support for demand [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Concerns about the economic outlook due to the Middle East situation led to a decline in the stock market and sensitive commodities. As of March 19, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 69.22%, and that of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 77.17%. China's natural rubber social inventory decreased by 1.13% [9][10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The market fluctuates greatly, so trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. Below 16,700 for RU, it has turned bearish technically. Consider allocating out - of - the - money call options for butadiene rubber. Continue to hold the position of buying the main NR contract and short - selling RU2609 [11]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 15 yuan to 5875 yuan. The overall operating rate was 80.1%, with the calcium carbide method at 84.7% and the ethylene method at 69.2%. Factory inventory was 36.5 million tons (- 1.2), and social inventory was 137.1 million tons (- 3.6) [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The comprehensive profit of enterprises has rebounded to a high level. Although there is an expectation of passive production cuts in ethylene - based production and seasonal maintenance, and domestic demand is gradually recovering from the off - season, and there is an expectation of overseas production cuts, the short - term trend is upward before the Iranian issue is resolved, but beware of risks due to the large short - term increase [14][15]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and its futures price also remained unchanged, with the basis widening. The spot price of styrene rose, while the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The upstream operating rate was 70.46%, down 1.33%, and the Jiangsu port inventory increased by 0.60 million tons [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is limited. The supply is still relatively abundant, and the port inventory is continuously increasing. It is recommended to wait and see with an empty position [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 8818 yuan/ton, down 98 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 80.37%, up 0.39%. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 0.71 million tons, and trader inventory increased by 0.48 million tons [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The futures price fell. The PE valuation still has downward space. After the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases marginally, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 9019 yuan/ton, down 139 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 71.5%, up 0.17%. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 6.14 million tons, trader inventory decreased by 1.244 million tons, and port inventory decreased by 0.29 million tons [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The futures price fell. The supply pressure will be alleviated in the first half of 2026. The downstream operating rate rebounds seasonally. The short - term market is dominated by geopolitical conflicts, and the long - term contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 232 yuan to 9682 yuan. The Chinese PX load was 84.6%, down 0.1%, and the Asian load was 74.8%, down 2.1%. The inventory decreased by 1 million tons month - on - month at the end of January [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The PX load is expected to further decline, and the downstream PTA load is expected to rise. PX will gradually enter the de - stocking cycle in March. The valuation is currently moderately low, and it is expected to increase, but beware of risks due to the large short - term increase [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 184 yuan to 6650 yuan. The PTA load was 80.8%, up 3.5%. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) increased by 2.6 million tons on March 6. The on - disk processing fee fell 32 yuan to 298 yuan [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is difficult for PTA to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but beware of risks due to the large short - term increase [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 133 yuan to 5353 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 66.5%, down 0.3%. Port inventory decreased by 5.7 million tons [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Overseas plant maintenance volume has increased significantly, and domestic plants are gradually entering the maintenance season. The load is expected to continue to decline, and imports are expected to decrease significantly from March. The port inventory will gradually shift to de - stocking. The current oil - chemical profit has dropped to a historical low level, but beware of risks due to the large short - term increase [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall oil price shows a volatile and upward - trending rhythm. The energy market is facing an unprecedented supply shock, and geopolitical conflicts and concerns about economic downturn are dragging down asset prices [1][3]. - The short - term high and low - sulfur cracking spreads of fuel oil are expected to remain high. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is affected by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is tightened due to the closure of the east - west arbitrage window. The demand from domestic refineries and overseas ship refueling is expected to increase [3]. - The short - term asphalt price is expected to remain high. The supply is expected to decrease due to geopolitical conflicts and some refineries' focus on refined oil supply. The demand is expected to increase in April [3][4]. - The short - term polyester price will experience a high - level correction and oscillation. The cost is rising and the supply is shrinking, while the downstream demand is weak [4]. - The prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber may further diverge. The price of butadiene rubber will fluctuate with geopolitical situations and oil prices, and natural rubber will face the dual pressures of increased supply and decreased demand [6]. - The methanol futures and spot prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern. Attention should be paid to the intensity and scope of Iran's retaliation, changes in geopolitical conflicts, and the actual resumption progress of downstream MTO devices [6]. - The polyolefin market is in a de - stocking rhythm, but short - term geopolitical risks push up costs, squeezing downstream profit margins and potentially hindering demand growth [8]. - The PVC price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the ethylene - based method, while the profit of the calcium carbide - based method is strengthening rapidly. Supply is expected to remain high, and demand will gradually recover [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI April contract closed down 0.18 dollars to 96.14 dollars per barrel, a 0.19% decline; Brent May contract closed up 1.27 dollars to 108.65 dollars per barrel, a 1.18% increase; SC2605 closed at 757.1 yuan per barrel, down 46.3 yuan per barrel, a 5.76% decline. Geopolitical events such as Iran's warning and attacks on oil facilities in the Middle East have affected the market. The overall oil price shows a volatile and upward - trending rhythm [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 6.91% to 5011 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 rose 10.45% to 6170 yuan per ton. As of March 16, the land - based fuel oil inventories in Singapore and Fujairah decreased. The short - term high and low - sulfur cracking spreads are expected to remain high [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2604 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 4.32% to 4635 yuan per ton. This week, the shipment volume of domestic asphalt enterprises decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises increased slightly. The short - term price is expected to remain high [3][4]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 6834 yuan per ton, up 0.65%; EG2605 closed at 5220 yuan per ton, up 7.65%. The downstream demand is weak, and the short - term price will experience a high - level correction and oscillation [4]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contract RU2605 fell 310 yuan per ton to 16090 yuan per ton; the NR contract fell 180 yuan per ton to 12925 yuan per ton; the butadiene rubber contract BR rose 280 yuan per ton to 15540 yuan per ton. The prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber may further diverge [4][6]. - **Methanol**: Short - term methanol futures and spot prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern. Attention should be paid to multiple variables such as Iran's retaliation and downstream device resumption [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The upstream device maintenance plans increase, and the downstream factory operating load rises. The market is in a de - stocking rhythm, but short - term geopolitical risks push up costs, squeezing downstream profit margins [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The PVC market prices in East, North, and South China are adjusted upwards. The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the ethylene - based method, while the profit of the calcium carbide - based method is strengthening. The price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The document provides the basis price data of various energy - chemical products on March 19 and 18, 2026, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes and historical quantile information [9]. 3.3 Market News - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that the oil facilities of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar have become "legitimate targets for attack". The Habshan gas facility in the UAE has been temporarily shut down, and the Ahmadi Port refinery in Kuwait has been attacked [11]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) detailed the specific composition of the approximately 400 million - barrel strategic oil reserve release plan. The release will mainly consist of crude oil, and in Europe, it will mainly be in the form of refined oil. The specific allocation ratio between crude oil and refined oil may change [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The document provides line charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short fibers, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, rubber, synthetic rubber, European container shipping, p - xylene, and bottle chips [13][14][17][20][24]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The document provides line charts showing the basis of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [29][30][33][34][37]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The document provides line charts showing the spreads between different contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [40][42][46][48][50][52]. - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: The document provides line charts showing the spreads and ratios between different products, including crude oil's internal - external spread, B - W spread, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [55][58][59][62]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The document provides line charts showing the production profits of various products, including LLDPE, PP, PTA processing fees, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow [63][64][66]. 3.5 Team Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of experience in the futures derivatives market, has won multiple awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises and formulating risk management and investment strategies [69]. - **Du Bingqin**: Director of the Energy and Chemical Research Department of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with in - depth research on the energy industry, has won multiple awards and is often interviewed by the media [70]. - **Di Yilin**: Rubber and polyester analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won multiple awards and is good at data analysis and has strong logical thinking [71]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst of methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefins, and PVC at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the energy - chemical spot - futures trading and financial theory - industry operation combination [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global capital market liquidity continues to be impacted, and domestic small and medium - cap stocks are dragged down. The stock index is expected to continue the shock pattern, and may restart the upward pattern in the future with the easing of external inflation pressure and the recovery of market risk appetite [1]. - Multiple factors such as housing demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure brought by fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the volatile operation of treasury bonds [1]. - Due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the prices of copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metals are under pressure, while the price of alumina may fluctuate due to the consideration of export quotas in Guinea. Nickel and stainless steel prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Precious metals are affected by the energy crisis and interest - rate hike trading, and their prices are under pressure. Platinum and palladium prices are also under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - For industrial silicon, the supply side resumes production, but demand is weak and inventory is being depleted. For lithium carbonate, there are factors such as strong energy storage demand, weak power demand, and strong capital risk - aversion sentiment, and the price is in shock [1]. - For black metals, most varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are in shock, and policies and cost support have an impact on prices [1]. - For agricultural products, palm oil is bullish, soybean oil is expected to rise following, and rapeseed oil has potential bullish factors in the short term. Cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium and long term, and sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - For energy and chemical futures, due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the prices of many varieties such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene are affected, and their prices show different trends [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - The stock index is expected to continue the shock pattern, and it is recommended to build long positions in the medium and long term by combining the discount advantage of stock index futures and control positions [1]. - Treasury bonds oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices may decline, aluminum prices are under pressure, and alumina prices may fluctuate. Zinc and tin prices are affected by the overall sentiment of the non - ferrous sector, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious metals are affected by the energy crisis and interest - rate hike trading, and platinum and palladium prices are under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Industrial silicon has issues of supply - side resumption and weak demand; lithium carbonate has multiple influencing factors and is in shock [1]. Black Metals - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, glass, and other varieties are in shock, and policies and cost support have an impact on prices [1]. - Coke and coking coal are affected by geopolitical factors, and it is necessary to pay attention to geopolitical changes [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil is bullish, soybean oil is expected to rise following, and rapeseed oil has potential bullish factors in the short term [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium and long term, and sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - Corn futures are expected to continue the high - level shock pattern, and it is necessary to pay attention to relevant factors [1]. - It is recommended to wait for callbacks to layout long positions in the far - month contracts of soybean meal [1]. - Pulp futures are in a weak fundamental situation and are in shock in a certain price range [1]. - Log futures have large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Many varieties such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene are affected by the tense situation in the Middle East, and their prices show different trends [1]. - Urea has limited upward space and cost - side support; methanol has issues of Iranian imports and high domestic inventory [1]. - PE, PP, and PVC are affected by geopolitical factors, and PVC has a relatively optimistic future expectation [1]. - Caustic soda has a weak fundamental situation, and the market sentiment has cooled [1]. - LPG has a complex situation with factors such as price premiums, demand, and inventory, and there is a differentiation between internal and external markets [1]. - For container shipping on the European line, price increases are generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off - season in March [1].