燃料油周报 （11.17-11.21） 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 新加坡11月从西方市场套利的低硫燃料油到货量预计为290-300万吨，高于10月的250-260万吨。但贸易 消息人士称，高昂运费导致的套利经济性不可行或将导致12月到港量收紧。供应收紧预期影响下，低硫船用 燃料油价格逐步上涨，现货价差也由贴水转为溢价。不过贸易消息人士表示，由于即期供应充足，低硫燃料 油基本面短期内进一步大幅上行的空间有限。亚洲高硫燃料油市场一直受到下游船用燃料需要的强劲支撑。 此外，部分中国炼油厂在采购高硫燃料油作为原料，虽然不能说中国市场的需求表现极佳，但仍保持着相当 稳定的水平。国际原油价格或维持震荡，预计燃料油价格也继续弱势波动为主。操作上：高硫短线2450-2650 区间操作，低硫短线2950-3150区间操作。 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人 ...

2025年11月24日 | 对二甲苯：短期不追高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：单边震荡市，不追高 | 2 | | MEG：供需格局改善，空单减持 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：估值区间内弱势运行 | 6 | | 沥青：跟随原油弱势运行 | 8 | | LLDPE：进口报盘或有减少，裂解负荷有扰动 | 10 | | PP：短期不追空，中期趋势仍有压力 | 11 | | 烧碱：趋势仍有压力 | 12 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 13 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 15 | | 甲醇：震荡偏弱，下方空间收窄 | 16 | | 尿素：震荡运行 | 18 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 20 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 21 | | LPG：下游需求分化，关注成本变动 | 22 | | 丙烯：上涨驱动转弱，成本支撑偏强 | 22 | | PVC：不宜追空，低位震荡 | 25 | | 燃料油：下跌趋势重现，短期或强于低硫 | 26 | | 低硫燃料油：弱势延续，外盘现货高低硫价差转而收缩 | 26 | | 集运指数（欧线）：震荡整理 | 27 | | 短纤：短期 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report - Report Date: November 23, 2025 - Analyst: Liang Kefang - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0019111 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - **Price Trend**: This week, fuel oil prices continued to decline, and the strength of low-sulfur fuel oil at home and abroad began to weaken during the decline. For high-sulfur fuel oil, Middle Eastern exports continued to surge, with most of the increase coming from Saudi Arabia and Iran. Considering that the major maintenance in Saudi Arabia is about to end, the short-term weakness of high-sulfur fuel oil may not be reversed. For low-sulfur fuel oil, refinery maintenance in Brazil and European refineries' shift to deep processing of heavy components to increase gasoline and diesel production led to a decrease in the amount of spot flowing to the Asia-Pacific region, and the spot transaction premium began to gradually recover. However, refineries in Brazil and Kuwait will gradually resume operations next month, and spot supply will gradually recover in the future, putting pressure on the market. Therefore, in the short term, the strength of low-sulfur fuel oil will gradually end. Considering that low-sulfur fuel oil has been stronger than high-sulfur fuel oil in the previous period, this situation may gradually reverse in the future [4]. - **Valuation**: FU: 2400 - 2500; LU: 3000 - 3250 [4]. - **Strategy**: 1) Unilateral: Fuel oil prices will remain weak in the short term. 2) Inter - period: The monthly spread structure of FU and LU has returned to contango, and it is difficult to reverse under the condition of loose supply. 3) Inter - variety: The cracking spread of FU/LU may continue to decline; the LU - FU spread will gradually decline in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - **Refinery Operations**: The content shows the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (including overall, independent, and major refineries) from 2016 - 2025 through charts, but no specific data analysis is provided [6]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: Charts present the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025, but no specific data analysis is provided [9][11][13][14]. - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume**: Charts show the monthly production of fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and domestic commercial volume of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025, but no specific data analysis is provided [19][20]. 3.2 Demand - **Domestic and Foreign Fuel Oil Demand Data**: Charts display the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the monthly sales volume of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025, but no specific data analysis is provided [23]. 3.3 Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: Charts show the heavy oil inventory in Singapore, the fuel oil inventory in European ARA, the heavy distillate inventory in Fujairah, and the residual fuel oil inventory in the US from 2018 - 2025, but no specific data analysis is provided [27][29][30]. 3.4 Price and Spread - **FOB Prices in Asia - Pacific Region**: Charts present the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Fujairah and Singapore from 2018 - 2025, but no specific data analysis is provided [35][36][37]. - **FOB Prices in European Region**: Charts show the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, north - western Europe, and other regions from 2018 - 2025, but no specific data analysis is provided [39][40][42][44]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Prices in US Region**: Charts display the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, the cargo price of high - sulfur fuel oil in New York Harbor, and the price of low - sulfur straight - run fuel oil in USAC from 2018 - 2025, but no specific data analysis is provided [45]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: Charts show the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in north - western Europe, Singapore, and the prices of FU and LU futures contracts from 2024 - 2025, but no specific data analysis is provided [48][49][52][53][54]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spread**: Charts present the high - low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore from 2018 - 2025, but no specific data analysis is provided [58][59]. - **Global Fuel Oil Cracking Spread**: Charts show the cracking spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and north - western Europe from 2019 - 2025, but no specific data analysis is provided [63][64][65]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread**: Charts display the monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and north - western Europe from 2023 - 2025, but no specific data analysis is provided [67]. 3.5 Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Charts show the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025, but no specific data analysis is provided [72][74][75]. - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Charts present the weekly changes in global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions, but no specific data analysis is provided [77]. - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Charts show the weekly changes in global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions, but no specific data analysis is provided [79]. 3.6 Futures Market Indicators and Domestic - Foreign Spreads - **Review and Logic**: This week, Asia - Pacific fuel oil prices continued to decline, and the Zhoushan market moved in tandem. In terms of spreads, the domestic market was relatively weak, and the domestic - foreign spread began to gradually shrink from the previous high. For FU, the short positions still led the long positions, causing FU to perform weaker than the overseas spot, and the spread continued to shrink. For LU, both long and short positions were gradually closing, but the number of warehouse receipts remained stable after the delivery, and a new batch of spot may enter the Zhoushan market at the end of the month, so the convergence of the domestic - foreign spread may end in the short term [82]. - **Domestic - Foreign Spread Data**: Specific data on the domestic - foreign spreads of 380 spot, 0.5% spot, and various futures contracts from November 17 - 21, 2025 are provided [83]. - **Domestic - Foreign Spread Charts**: Charts show the domestic - foreign spreads of 380 spot, 0.5% spot, and various futures contracts from 2021 - 2025, but no specific data analysis is provided [86][87][89][90][91]. 3.7 FU and LU Position and Volume Changes - **Position and Volume Charts**: Charts display the trading volumes and positions of fuel oil main contracts, low - sulfur fuel oil continuous contracts, and related contracts from 2020 - 2025, but no specific data analysis is provided [93][95][98][100]. 3.8 FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes - **Warehouse Receipt Quantity Charts**: Charts show the quantity changes of FU and LU warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025, but no specific data analysis is provided [104][105].

震荡磨底之中 短期低点已现 原油周报 2025/11/22 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 严梓桑 （联系人） 0755-23375123 yanzs@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03149203 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估&策略推荐 02 宏观&地缘 06 原油库存 03 油品价差 07 气象灾害 04 原油供应 05 原油需求 08 另类数据 01 周度评估&策略推荐 行情回顾 图1：WTI主力合约近月走势（$/桶） 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 2025/1/1 2025/1/8 2025/1/15 2025/1/22 2025/1/29 2025/2/5 2025/2/12 2025/2/19 2025/2/26 2025/3/5 2025/3/12 2025/3/19 2025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 2025/4/16 2025/4/23 2025/4/30 2025/5/7 2025/5/14 2025/5/21 2025/5/28 2025/6/4 2025/6/1 ...

| 《八 国経期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年11月21日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | な☆☆ | F3066912 Z0016785 | | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | 李海群 中级分析师 | | | | F03107558 Z0021515 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 隔夜国际油价进一步回落,SC01合约日内跌1.67%。昨日鸟克兰方面宣布乌总统已正式收到美国提交的俄乌和平 计划草案、俄鸟地缘风险溢价受到压制。我们认为供给端收缩引发的油价周期性拐点尚未见到,油价因地缘因 素引发的反弹空间总体受限,行情仍以震荡偏弱为主。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 本周商品量下降但到港量增加，供应端存增量利空压制。丁烷脱氢装置盈利改善提振下游化工企业开工积极 性,且多地大幅降温带动燃烧端需求好转。 ...

Group 1: Energy - The international oil price fell overnight, with the Brent 01 contract down 0.8%. The geopolitical risk premium of the Russia-Ukraine conflict was suppressed, and the oil price rebound due to geopolitical factors was limited. The market is expected to be weak and volatile [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil is stronger than high-sulfur fuel oil. The low-sulfur market is supported by supply disruptions and strong diesel cracking, while the high-sulfur market is expected to face supply increases in the medium term [21] - The cost support for asphalt is weakening, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The market sentiment is bearish [22] - The expected import cost of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is rising in December. The demand from both the chemical and combustion sectors is improving, and the LPG market is expected to be strong [23] Group 2: Metals - Precious metals are oscillating at a high level. The employment data is mixed, and the Fed officials' statements are divided. The possibility of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in December is high. Attention should be paid to the directional breakthrough on the technical side [2] - Copper prices fell overnight due to a stronger dollar and weak demand. Short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 87,000 yuan [3] - Aluminum prices fluctuated narrowly. The Fed's interest rate cut prospects are uncertain, and the aluminum market may continue to adjust. Attention should be paid to the support of the middle Bollinger Band [4] - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The inventory structure is gradually being repaired, and there is still profit potential for cross-market arbitrage [7] - Lead prices are supported by low inventory levels, but the external market is under pressure due to high inventory. The import window for aluminum ingots may open, and the upward momentum of aluminum prices is insufficient [8] - Nickel prices are weakening. The macro risk is increasing, and the support from the upstream price rebound is weakening. The inventory of nickel and stainless steel is increasing [9] - Tin prices are oscillating. The environmental rectification in Malaysia has limited impact on the market. The import of tin concentrate in China has improved slightly, but the resumption of supply from Myanmar is not strong. Short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 295,000 yuan [10] - Lithium carbonate prices are strengthening. The downstream demand is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The technical analysis shows a range breakthrough, and a buy-on-dip strategy can be adopted [11] - Polycrystalline silicon prices are falling. The photovoltaic demand is weak, and the actual supply-demand improvement is limited. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [12] - Industrial silicon prices are undergoing a technical correction. The downstream demand for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon is expected to improve, which may boost the price [13] Group 3: Building Materials - Steel prices rebounded at night. The demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils is improving, but the supply pressure is gradually easing. Attention should be paid to the environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan [14] - Iron ore prices are oscillating. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to be range-bound in the short term [15] - Coke and coking coal prices are expected to be weak and oscillating. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream demand is stable, but the steel mills' profit is average, and the pressure on raw material prices is high [16][17] - Manganese silicon and silicon iron prices are falling. The market expects coal supply to increase, which may lower the cost. The demand is stable, but the supply is high, and the bottom support may weaken [18][19] Group 4: Chemicals - Urea prices are oscillating narrowly. The Indian tender results will affect the market sentiment. The agricultural demand is weakening, but the industrial demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing [24] - Methanol prices are in a weak position. The overseas supply is high, and the demand is expected to decline. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [25] - Pure benzene prices are rebounding, but the sustainability is uncertain. The supply pressure is easing, and the demand is expected to improve, but the export to the US faces challenges [26] - Styrene prices are supported by cost and supply reduction. The demand from the European market is strong [27] - Polypropylene, polyethylene, and propylene prices are expected to be weak. The supply is high, and the demand is low, and the supply-demand contradiction is increasing [28] - PVC and caustic soda prices are falling. The cost support is weakening, and the demand is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the cost changes and profit margins [29] - PX and PTA prices are oscillating. The supply from overseas may be affected, and the demand is weakening. The market is cautiously bullish [30] - Ethylene glycol prices are expected to be bearish. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. A short strategy can be adopted [31] - Short fiber and bottle chip prices are under pressure. The demand is weakening, and the prices are expected to follow the raw material prices [32] Group 5: Agricultural Products - Soybean and soybean meal prices are oscillating. The US soybean planting area is expected to increase, and the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production needs to be monitored. A buy-on-dip strategy can be considered after the correction [36] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are affected by the US biodiesel policy. The palm oil price may have bottomed out [37] - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices are under pressure. The import volume has decreased, and the demand is weak. A bearish strategy is recommended [38] - Corn prices are oscillating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving. The Dalian corn futures 01 contract may continue to decline [40] - Hog prices are at a low level. The futures market is trading on the potential supply pressure in the future. The pig price may form a double bottom in the first half of next year [41] - Egg prices are rebounding strongly. The spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to whether the previous price decline has ended [42] - Cotton prices are range-bound. The US cotton export sales are increasing, but the domestic demand is average. The Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be range-bound in the short term [43] - Sugar prices are oscillating. The international market supply is sufficient, and the domestic market is focusing on the new season's production estimate. The production in Guangxi is expected to be good [43] - Apple prices are oscillating at a high level. The short-term price is strong due to low inventory, but the long-term inventory pressure may exist. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction [44] Group 6: Others - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in early December and may improve in late December. The 02 contract may be slightly discounted compared to the 12 contract, and the far-month contracts are expected to be low and oscillating [20] - Wood prices are oscillating. The low inventory supports the price, and a wait-and-see strategy is recommended [45] - Pulp prices are falling. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [46] - Stock index futures are falling. The A-share market is volatile, and the external market is uncertain. A wait-and-see strategy is recommended, and attention can be paid to stable, consumer, and cyclical sectors [47] - Treasury bond futures are falling. The market is trading lightly, and the structure is differentiated. The change in market risk preference may bring new opportunities [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts have rebounded [2]. - Silver: In a state of oscillatory adjustment [2]. - Copper: Risk sentiment remains weak, and prices are oscillating [2][10]. - Zinc: Subject to macro - level disturbances [2][13]. - Lead: Reduced inventory restricts price decline [2][16]. - Tin: Prices have fallen from a high level [2][19]. - Aluminum: Affected by macro - level disturbances; Alumina: Ranging within a certain interval; Casting aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][24]. - Nickel: Nickel prices have broken through support levels and are under pressure to move in an oscillatory manner; Stainless steel: Weak market reality suppresses steel prices, but the downside is limited [2][27][28]. - Lithium carbonate: The speed of inventory reduction has slowed down, and a market sentiment cooldown may lead to a price correction [2][33]. - Industrial silicon: The market shows a weak pattern; Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the lower support level [2][36][37]. - Iron ore: Downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is relatively high [2][40]. - Rebar: Oscillating weakly; Hot - rolled coil: Oscillating weakly [2][43]. - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation; Manganese silicon: Wide - range oscillation [2][48]. - Coke: Wide - range oscillation; Coking coal: Wide - range oscillation [2][52]. - Logs: Repeated oscillations [2][54]. - Para - xylene: Supply contraction squeezes downstream profits; PTA: In a single - sided oscillatory market, avoid chasing high prices; MEG: New device launches lead to continued inventory accumulation, and supply pressure persists [2][28]. - Rubber: Oscillating; Synthetic rubber: Oscillating [2][31][33]. - Asphalt: Following the weak trend of crude oil [2][35]. - LLDPE: Agricultural demand may be approaching its peak, pay attention to supply pressure; PP: Do not chase short - term short positions, but there is still pressure in the medium - term trend; Caustic soda: There is still pressure in the trend [2][37][38][39]. - Pulp: Oscillating [2][40]. - Glass: The price of original glass is stable [2][42]. - Methanol: Oscillating weakly, with the downside space narrowing; Urea: Short - term oscillation has support; Styrene: Short - term oscillation; Soda ash: Little change in the spot market [2][43][45][47][48]. - LPG: Supply - demand expectations are tightening, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term; Propylene: Spot prices are trending strongly, and the futures market is oscillating at the bottom; PVC: Do not chase short positions, oscillating at a low level; Fuel oil: Short - term strength, continuous rebound at night; Low - sulfur fuel oil: The weak trend continues, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market has slightly declined; Container shipping index (European line): In an oscillatory market; Short - fiber: Short - term oscillatory market; Bottle chips: Short - term oscillatory market, with processing fees being compressed; Offset printing paper: Oscillating at a low level; Pure benzene: Overseas gasoline blending has started, mainly oscillating in the short term; Palm oil: The rebound height is limited, pay attention to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas; Soybean oil: There is no driving force for a breakthrough, mainly oscillating within a certain range; Soybean meal: Oscillating; Soybean: Oscillating; Corn: Oscillating; Sugar: Consolidating at a low level; Cotton: Futures prices maintain an oscillatory trend; Eggs: The volume of culled hens has increased; Pigs: The expectation of temperature drop has materialized, and pressure is gradually being released; Peanuts: Pay attention to the spot market [2][5][49] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: For gold, the closing prices of domestic and international futures contracts showed declines, trading volumes and positions changed, and ETF positions decreased. For silver, futures prices also declined, trading volumes decreased, and positions increased. Inventory levels of both decreased [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US September non - farm payrolls data was mixed, with unemployment reaching a four - year high. The number of initial jobless claims unexpectedly decreased last week, while the number of continued claims reached a four - year high. Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts [6][9]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices showed minor fluctuations, trading volumes and positions changed, inventory levels varied, and spot - futures spreads also changed [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US employment data was mixed, and the Netherlands suspended intervention in Nexperia. Peru's copper production increased, a copper mine project in Chile obtained environmental approval, China's copper product output decreased, and import and export data for copper - related products changed [10][12]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices declined slightly, trading volumes decreased, positions increased, inventory levels changed, and various price spreads and premiums also changed [13]. - **News**: The US September non - farm report showed mixed signals in the employment market, which may complicate the Fed's December decision [13]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices decreased, trading volumes and positions declined, inventory levels changed, and price spreads and import - related data also changed [16]. - **News**: Similar to other metals, it was affected by the US employment data [17]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices decreased, trading volumes and positions changed, inventory levels varied, and spot prices and price spreads changed [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In addition to the US employment data, there were reports about Trump's AI policy and the White House's pressure on Congress regarding AI chip exports [21][22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: For electrolytic aluminum, futures prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory levels, and price spreads changed. For alumina, relevant data also showed certain trends. For casting aluminum alloy, prices and inventory levels changed [24]. - **Comprehensive News**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased, and there were differences within the Fed regarding interest rate cuts [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of nickel and stainless steel decreased, trading volumes and positions changed, and various industrial chain prices and spreads also changed [28]. - **Macro and Industry News**: An Indonesian nickel mine was taken over, China suspended a non - official subsidy for nickel imports, and there were regulations and policies in the Indonesian mining industry. There were also trade - related threats from the US [28][30][31]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, positions, and inventory levels of lithium carbonate contracts changed, and the prices of related products in the industrial chain also showed certain trends [33]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased, and production and inventory data for lithium carbonate changed [34]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, positions, and price spreads of industrial silicon and polysilicon changed, and spot prices, profits, and inventory levels also varied [37]. - **Macro and Industry News**: A 200 - megawatt photovoltaic project in Xinjiang was put into operation [38]. Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices decreased, trading volumes and positions changed, spot prices declined slightly, and price spreads changed [40]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's industrial added value data was released [41]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices decreased, trading volumes and positions changed, spot prices declined, and price spreads changed [43]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Weekly production, inventory, and apparent demand data for steel products were released, and national steel production data from January to October was also provided [44][46]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices decreased, trading volumes and positions changed, spot prices and price spreads also changed [48]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Price information for ferrosilicon and manganese silicon was released, and manganese ore import data was provided [49][50]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices decreased, trading volumes and positions changed, spot prices remained stable, and price spreads changed [52]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The National Development and Reform Commission held a video conference on energy supply during the heating season [53].

Report Information - Report date: November 21, 2025 [1][4][13][14][19][22][25][35][39][43][48][53][57][63][67][69][72][80][83][85] - Report title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Energy and Chemicals [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides short - term trend forecasts for various energy and chemical futures, including trends such as supply - demand changes, price fluctuations, and trading strategies for each commodity [2][4][10][11][12] Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply is expected to be tight, with a rising unilateral price. Suggest 5 - 9 month - spread positive arbitrage, long PX and short PTA/PF/PR, and long PX and short pure benzene for hedging. The terminal polyester demand is weakening marginally [10][11] - **PTA**: The upside space may be limited, do not chase high. Cost provides support, and the month - spread view is revised to positive arbitrage [11] - **MEG**: The medium - term trend is weak. Short at high prices and maintain reverse arbitrage for month - spreads. Supply is expected to increase, and there is an oversupply situation in December [12] Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: It is in a volatile state. The supply side provides support, but the demand side from tire factories is weak, and the inventory is accumulating seasonally [13][14][17][18] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is in a volatile state. Short - term prices are supported by the rubber sector, but the medium - term fundamentals of butadiene are under pressure [19][20][21] Asphalt - It follows the weak trend of crude oil. The production has decreased this week, and both factory and social inventories have decreased [22][34] LLDPE - Agricultural demand may be reaching its peak. Pay attention to supply pressure. The raw material cost is under pressure, and the downstream demand is supported by rigid needs, but the mid - and downstream inventory - holding willingness has weakened [35][36] PP - Do not short in the short term, but the medium - term trend is still under pressure. The supply is high, and the demand peak has passed. Low profits limit the downward space [39][40] Caustic Soda - The trend is still under pressure. High production and high inventory continue, and the demand side has limited support. The cost support is weak, and the long - term negative feedback from alumina production cuts may occur [43][45] Pulp - It is in a volatile state. The price fluctuation is affected by factors such as futures stability, weak demand, and high inventory [48][50][52] Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The market trading atmosphere is general, and the price has been adjusted downward in some regions [53][54] Methanol - It is in a weakly volatile state with a narrowing downward space. The supply is high, the demand from the MTO industry is under pressure, and the cost - side pricing logic weight increases slightly [57][60][62] Urea - It is expected to be volatile with support in the short term. The enterprise inventory has decreased, and the fourth - batch export quota and mid - stream replenishment may relieve the pressure [63][65][66] Styrene - It is in a short - term volatile state. The short - term aromatic hydrocarbon blending oil logic continues, and the pure benzene market has a weak chemical reality and a strong blending oil expectation [67][68] Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The enterprise production is stable, and the downstream demand is based on low - price rigid needs [69][70] LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Supply - demand expectations are tightening, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [72] - **Propylene**: The spot trend is strong, and the futures price fluctuates at the bottom [72] PVC - Do not short at low levels. It is in a low - level volatile state. The futures price is at a historical low, and some devices may cut production. However, the high - production and high - inventory situation is difficult to change in the short term [80][81] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It has strengthened in the short term, with a continuous rebound at night [83] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The weak trend continues, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has slightly decreased [83] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is in a volatile state [85] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short - Fiber**: It is in a short - term volatile state [31] - **Bottle Chip**: It is in a short - term volatile state, and the processing fee is compressed [31] Offset Printing Paper - It is in a low - level volatile state [32] Pure Benzene - It is mainly volatile in the short term. The overseas blending oil market is starting, and the chemical fundamentals are weak [34][68]

| (安期貨 | | --- | | NGAN FUTURES | 燃料油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/21 | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/11/14 | 371.73 | 414.41 | -5.40 | 710.26 | -295.85 | 31.99 | 42.68 | | 2025/11/17 | 366.33 | 415.16 | -6.17 | 707.49 | -292.33 | 31.67 | 48.83 | | 2025/11/18 | 359.79 | 411.23 | -6.97 | 732.42 | -321.19 | 3 ...

国际油价隔夜盘中大跌超3%给国内相关油品带来明显的压力。在此背景下，低硫燃料油（LU）、燃料油、SC原油隔夜夜盘时段大幅跳空低开。但其后SC 原油小幅回升，终盘跌幅收窄至2%以内，但LU受制于基本面供应压力，日内弱势盘整，终盘以3.5%的跌幅领跌商品市场。 油品市场不仅面临宏观面美联储12月降息预期退坡的压力，还持续面临着基本面过剩的利空。而隔夜俄罗斯副总理表示"已经全面完成对之前过剩产量的补 偿，且不打算自愿减产"，加之美国政府正与俄罗斯就结束俄乌冲突的框架协议接近达成"重大突破"的消息，均加剧了油市过剩的担忧，打压国际油价隔夜 大跌超3%。 新华财经北京11月20日电 （吴郑思、郭洲洋）周四（11月20日），国内商品期货市场整体震荡偏弱，多数品种承压走低。截至下午收盘时，中证商品期货 价格指数收报1470.12点，较前一交易日下跌8.60点，跌幅0.58%；中证商品期货指数收报2032.61点，较前一交易日下跌11.88点，跌幅0.58%。 分品种来看，能化品种仍是表现最弱的板块。尽管纯苯、苯乙烯受到自身基本面偏多的支撑，分别收涨超2%和1%，但低硫燃料油、焦煤、纯碱等主要能化 品种仍大面积下挫，收盘跌幅 ...