国内商品期市夜盘收盘涨跌参半，化工品涨幅居前，PTA涨2.28%；黑色系全部上涨，焦煤涨2.10%；能 源品多数上涨，低硫燃料油涨1.33%；非金属建材跌幅居前，PVC跌1.87%；农副产品多数下跌，棉花 跌1.66%；油脂油料多数下跌，豆一跌0.87%。 ...

热点追踪 （2026年1月9日） 研究咨询部 每日涨跌幅及资金变化 苹果 中证500期货 中证1000期货 线材 燃油 沪铝 沪锡 沪深300期货 短纤 不锈钢豆油红枣 菜粕 纤维板 豆二 10豆一粳米年期国债期货鸡蛋玉米 棕榈油 上证沪金50期货苯乙烯 低硫燃料油 橡胶 铁矿石 PVC豆粕 PTA 尿素2玉米淀粉 碳酸锂 年期国债期货 白糖乙二醇菜油沥青 20号胶 沪锌 生猪5年期国债期货 聚丙烯 硅铁焦炭 纯碱 郑棉棉纱热轧卷板 沪铅沪银 烧碱玻璃 30对二甲苯 年期国债期货 LPG 塑料 原油 螺纹钢 锰硅 沪铜国际铜 丁二烯橡胶 集运指数(欧线) 氧化铝 工业硅 纸浆 甲醇 花生 焦煤 沪镍 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 资 金 流 向 （ % ） 涨跌幅（%） 品种每日涨跌幅及资金变化 每日成交量变化 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 苹果 中证500期货 中证1000期货 线材 燃油 沪铝 沪深300期货 沪锡 红枣 豆油 短纤 不锈钢 棕榈油 上证50期货 纤维板 苯乙烯 沪金 豆一 低硫燃料油 菜粕 10年期国债期货 ...

转自：新华财经 地缘扰动再起，国际油价强势大涨，带动内盘原油系相关品种9日集体走高，其中，低硫燃料油和SC原油主力合约均涨超3%，燃料油主力合约涨超2%。虽 然委内瑞拉事件对原油影响相对较小，但近期伊朗局势动荡，市场担忧可能会阶段性影响原油生产与出口。消息面上，美国总统特朗普8日再次就伊朗骚乱 事件发出威胁， 也强化了地缘局势的不确定性。据正信期货分析，地缘多点突发且不确定性加强，委内瑞拉更多以远期过剩计价，而伊朗则更聚焦供应中 断，油价跌至支撑位后再度反弹，短期波动较大。中期来看，该机构指出，原油市场仍聚焦过剩矛盾，首先美国旨在接手委内瑞拉油田来扩大出口，其次不 排除油价上涨后欧佩克继续加速增产，最后俄乌冲突若缓和后的海上高库存问题尚未解决。 政策预期生变多晶硅续跌超8% 沪镍延续调整 在市场监管总局通报多晶硅垄断风险的背景下，市场对多晶硅回到边际成本定价模式的预期升温，这令多晶硅市场近两个交易日情绪急速转弱。在1月8日多 合约跌停之后，9月多晶硅主力合约再度大跌超8%，继续领跌商品市场。在分析机构看来，监管导向的变化使得市场对未来多晶硅产能出清路径的预期从之 前的"产业、组织间协调"，转向"以技术迭代的市 ...

| | | | 1 | | --- | | 15. | | 噪 | | 14 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | 能源日报 2026年01月08日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 当前原油市场处于供应过剩的累库格局。从EIA. IEA，OPEC三大机构平衡表预估情况来看，202601全球原油市场 面临较大累库压力。美委局势难为油价反弹提供持续性的基本面支撑，反而美国对委内打击目标在于快速实现 政权更送后接管委内石油资源,若后续制裁放松,外资重新进入委内石油基础设施,则委内石油产量及出口面 临增加可能。综上,油价主基调仍为供需宽松主导的中枢下行趋势。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势,且行情正在盘面发酵 ★ ...

燃料油日报 | 2026-01-09 高硫燃料油东西区价差走阔 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.04%，报2458元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨1.14%，报2929 元/吨。 近期委内瑞拉局势升级但对原油市场直接影响有限，中长期影响则偏利空，油价维持弱势震荡态势，对FU、LU单 边价格压制仍存。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，当前市场多空因素交织，整体矛盾有限，区域间出现分化态势。具体来看，在委内瑞 拉局势升级的背景下，重油资源从亚洲地区转向美国，导致美国渣油供应增加，近期美湾高硫燃料油裂解价差显 著下跌，并带动欧洲裂解价差走低。与此同时，亚太高硫燃料油裂解价差则呈现震荡偏强态势，此消彼长下东西 区价差近日大幅反弹。未来随着套利空间打开，西区对亚洲船货量可能会增加，对亚洲市场定价形成上方阻力。 低硫燃料油方面，由于装置检修状态的变动（阿祖尔和Dangote），科威特与尼日利亚地区供应存在回升预期，发 货量逐步回升。但汽柴油溢价会通过RFCC装置对低硫油组分进行分流，预计短期市场压力有限。 策略 | 图1：新加坡高硫380燃料油现货价格 | 单位：美元/吨 3 | | --- | --- ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2026年1月9日，早盘开盘，国内期货主力合约大面积飘绿，多晶硅跌超9%，沪镍跌超4%，氧化铝、焦 炭、纯碱、沪银、工业硅、烧碱跌超2%，焦煤、BR橡胶、20号胶、硅铁、沪铜跌近2%。涨幅方面，低 硫燃料油涨超3%，SC原油涨超2%。 | 字号 | 合约名称 | 层新 | 现手 | 26.10 | 荣价 | 19058 + | 外部 | 英语 | 成交率 | 6886 | 持仓量 | 日增仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 工D级电2603 w | 3012 | 350 | 3012 | 3013 | 3.19% | ਰੋ | 3 | 106479 | 93 | 86317 | 3929 | | 2 | 原田2602 W | 430.1 | 224 | 430.1 | 430.2 | 2.89% | 12 | 1 | 46939 | 12.1 | 32816 | -252 | | 3 | 英科由2603 ...

燃料油日报 | 2026-01-08 科威特低硫燃料油发货量回升 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌1.38%，报2437元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌2.29%，报2860 元/吨。 近期委内瑞拉局势升级但对原油市场直接影响有限，中长期影响则偏利空，油价维持弱势震荡态势，对FU、LU驱 动不足。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，当前市场多空因素交织，整体矛盾有限。其中，高硫燃料油裂解价差与贴水下跌后， 带动炼厂端需求边际改善，中国高硫燃料油进口量近期有所回升，但现货市场仍相对宽松。潜在的上行风险来自 于地缘政治层面。在委内瑞拉局势升级的背景下，如果委油断供问题持续，可能会导致国内地炼增加燃料油采购 需求。此外，中东地区同样面临风险，如果伊朗地区供应受到地缘局势扰动，那么对高硫燃料油市场的影响会更 为直接。 低硫燃料油方面，由于装置检修状态的变动（阿祖尔和Dangote），科威特与尼日利亚地区供应存在回升预期。参 考船期数据，科威特1月低硫燃料油发货量预计在33万吨，环比增加31万吨。与此同时，尼日利亚1月发货量预计 在14万吨，环比增加6万吨。 策略 高硫方面：短期中性，中性偏空 低硫方面：短 ...

| | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 南华商品指数市场数据 | | | | | | 指數名称 | 今收费 | 昨收费 | 点数 | 日 | 年化收益率 | 年化波动室 | Sharpe | | | Today Close | Pre. Close | Points | లి | ARR | An. Vol | Batio | | 综合指数 NHCI | 2670.47 | 2709.54 | -39.07 | -1.44% | 7.37% | 11.82% | 0.62 | | 责金属指数 NHPMI | 1923.55 | 1958.78 | -35.23 | -1.80% | 88.42% | 20.31% | 4.35 | | 工业品指数 NHII | 3603.79 | 3657.23 | -53.43 | =1.46% | -4.03% | 14.05% | -0.29 | | 全屋指数 NHMI | 7138.95 | 7311,59 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views The report offers insights into the trends and outlooks of various commodities in the futures market on January 8, 2026. It analyzes the fundamentals, news, and trends of each commodity, providing investment suggestions and trend intensities. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Safe-haven sentiment has rebounded. The trend intensity is 1. China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months [5][6]. - **Silver**: Prices have corrected from high levels. The trend intensity is 1 [5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The LME spot premium has declined, and price increases have slowed. The trend intensity is 0 [9]. - **Zinc**: Prices are oscillating at high levels. The trend intensity is 0 [12]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventory is supporting prices. The trend intensity is 0 [15]. - **Tin**: Bullish capital has been blocked, and prices have retreated after reaching highs. The trend intensity is 0 [18]. - **Aluminum**: Prices have slightly declined. The trend intensity is 0 [21]. - **Alumina**: Prices are oscillating within a range. The trend intensity is 0 [21]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is stronger than electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensity is 0 [21]. - **Platinum**: Prices are oscillating to find a direction. The trend intensity is 0 [24]. - **Palladium**: Prices are maintaining an oscillating pattern. The trend intensity is 0 [24]. - **Nickel**: There is a tug - of - war between real - world pressure and the narrative of a cyclical shift, with wide - range oscillations. The trend intensity is 0 [28]. - **Stainless Steel**: The real - world fundamentals are dragging, and the market is mainly focused on Indonesia's policies. The trend intensity is 0 [28]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Prices are oscillating at high levels, and market sentiment changes should be monitored. The trend intensity is 0 [32]. - **Industrial Silicon**: With silicon material production cuts, short positions can be established on price increases. The trend intensity is 0 [36]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is significantly affected by news. The trend intensity is - 1 [36]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices are fluctuating at high levels. The trend intensity is 0 [40]. - **Rebar**: Market sentiment is causing fluctuations, and prices are oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [44]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment is causing fluctuations, and prices are oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Market sentiment is driving up prices, and the market is oscillating upwards. The trend intensity is 1 [48]. - **Manganese Silicide**: Market sentiment is driving up prices, and the market is oscillating upwards. The trend intensity is 1 [48]. - **Coke**: Due to event developments, prices are oscillating at high levels. The trend intensity is 1 [52]. - **Coking Coal**: Due to event developments, prices are oscillating at high levels. The trend intensity is 1 [53]. - **Log**: Prices are oscillating repeatedly. The trend intensity is 0 [56]. - **Para - Xylene**: Spot supply is sufficient, and prices are under short - term pressure, with a unilateral high - level oscillating market. The trend intensity is 0 [60]. - **PTA**: Prices are in a high - level oscillating market. The trend intensity is 0 [60]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and there is still medium - term pressure. The trend intensity is 0 [60]. - **Rubber**: Prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [69]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Prices are trending strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [72]. - **LLDPE**: The production of standard products continues to decline, and the basis is weakly stable. The trend intensity is 0 [75]. - **PP**: Macroeconomic sentiment is boosting, but fundamental improvements are limited. The trend intensity is 0 [78]. - **Caustic Soda**: The rebound is unlikely to be sustained. The trend intensity is 0 [80]. - **Pulp**: Prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [85]. - **Glass**: The prices of raw sheets are stable. The trend intensity is 0 [90]. - **Methanol**: Prices are oscillating and falling. The trend intensity is 0 [94]. - **Urea**: Prices are oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [99]. - **Styrene**: Prices are oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [103]. - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market. The trend intensity is 0 [107]. - **LPG**: The import cost is firm, and attention should be paid to the realization of negative feedback. The trend intensity is 0 [113]. - **Propylene**: Demand is stable, and spot prices are slightly rising. The trend intensity is 0 [114]. - **PVC**: The rebound is unlikely to be sustained. The trend intensity is 0 [122]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices are oscillating in a narrow range, and there is still support at the bottom. The trend intensity is 0 [126]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Volatility is decreasing, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market continues to narrow. The trend intensity is 0 [126]. Agricultural Products - **Short - Fiber**: The market is oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [141]. - **Bottle Chip**: The market is oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [141]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to wait and see. The trend intensity is 0 [144]. - **Pure Benzene**: Prices are mainly oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [148]. - **Palm Oil**: Wait for the negative factors to be exhausted, and pay attention to the impact of macroeconomic sentiment. The trend intensity is 0 [153]. - **Soybean Oil**: Prices are rebounding within a range, and attention should be paid to the spread opportunities between months. The trend intensity is 0 [153]. - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by market sentiment, it is advisable to wait and see. The trend intensity is 0 [159]. - **Soybean**: Affected by market sentiment, it is advisable to wait and see. The trend intensity is 0 [159]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The trend intensity is 0 [162]. - **Sugar**: Prices are consolidating within a range. The trend intensity is 0 [166]. - **Cotton**: Prices are fluctuating with the overall market sentiment. The trend intensity is 0 [170]. - **Egg**: Sentiment for the far - month contracts is weakening. The trend intensity is 0 [177]. - **Live Pig**: There is negative feedback in demand. The trend intensity is - 1 [180]. - **Peanut**: Prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [186]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The freight rate peak has emerged; for the 02 contract, wait and see, and for the 04 contract, short on price increases. The trend intensity is 0 [128].

能源化工日报 2026-01-08 2026/01/08 原油 【行情资讯】 INE 主力原油期货收跌 11.00 元/桶，跌幅 2.57%，报 416.30 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 34.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.38%，报 2437.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 67.00 元/吨，跌幅 2.29%，报 2860.00 元/吨。 富查伊拉港口油品周度数据出炉，汽油库存去库 2.24 百万桶至 6.15 百万桶，环比去库 26.73%； 柴油库存累库 0.35 百万桶至 2.27 百万桶，环比累库 18.47%；燃料油库存去库 2.25 百万桶至 8.77 百万桶，环比去库 20.44%；总成品油去库 4.14 百万桶至 17.19 百万桶，环比去库 19.42%。 【策略观点】 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，OPEC 虽做增产但量级极低，与此同时我们观测到 OPEC 供给仍未放量，因而油价短期仍然不宜过于看空。基于此我们维持对油价低多高抛的区间策略， 但当前油价仍需测试 OPEC 的出口挺价意愿，建议短期观望为主，等待油价下跌时 OPEC 出口下 滑做出验证。 2026/1/8 甲醇 ...