1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Macro: China's September economic data was released, the US government continued to be in a "shutdown" with key economic data missing, and Fed officials signaled potential interest rate cuts [4]. - Fundamentals: Market supply was becoming more relaxed. There was still a rigid - demand base on the demand side, but high copper prices significantly suppressed purchasing willingness, leading to strong market wait - and - see sentiment [4]. - Overall logic: Amid rising Sino - US trade frictions and increased market risk - aversion, in the medium term, the shortage of copper mines and the interest - rate - cut logic remained, suggesting a bullish approach [4]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Macro: Similar to copper, China's September economic data was released, the US government was in a "shutdown", and Fed officials signaled rate cuts [6]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained flat. In October, with the traditional peak season, the proportion of molten aluminum gradually increased, and overall demand remained stable. The cost support weakened as alumina prices continued to fall, and the overall cost of electrolytic aluminum shifted downward. After the holiday, the second - week social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased again, and it was expected that domestic aluminum ingot inventories would enter a destocking trend in the second half of October [6]. - Overall logic: With little change in fundamentals, aluminum prices were expected to continue trading in a high - level range, and attention should be paid to the driving impact of the macro - market [6]. Alumina - Macro: The same macro - situation as copper and electrolytic aluminum [8]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the domestic alumina operating capacity was at a high level. Although a 400,000 - ton operating capacity in Shanxi was cut due to rainy - season supply issues, there was still an oversupply pressure in the domestic alumina market, and the national weekly alumina operating rate decreased slightly. Only a few northern enterprises had taken production - cut actions as the profit margin of alumina was compressed, but the industry still had an average profit compared to the net average price, and there were still long - term order delivery needs. On the demand side, as of last Thursday, the alumina raw - material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants was 3.126 million tons, a cumulative increase of 32,000 tons week - on - week. As winter storage approached, some aluminum plants' spot - purchasing enthusiasm had increased, but the overall spot market remained in a state of oversupply [8]. - Overall logic: The alumina market remained in an oversupply situation, lacking new driving factors, and was expected to operate weakly at a low level [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Weekly price changes**: The document shows the weekly cumulative percentage changes of various metals including Shanghai copper, international copper, LME copper, etc., but specific values are not fully detailed in text form [15]. - **Weekly news**: News included Codelco's increase in 2026 copper premium to European customers, concerns from Japan, Spain, and South Korea about the decline in copper smelting and refining fees, changes in Shanghai Futures Exchange's copper and aluminum delivery points, LME's plan to launch a new mechanism for low - carbon metal premium, and the cost and profit situation of China's electrolytic aluminum industry in September 2025 [16]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Domestic inflation data**: In September, CPI同比 was - 0.3% (previous value - 0.4%), core CPI同比 was 1.0% (previous value 0.9%), and PPI同比 was - 2.3% (previous value - 2.9%). It was the first time since April 2024 that CPI and PPI both rebounded. The narrowing of the CPI decline was mainly due to the base effect, and the core CPI reached a 19 - month high [18]. - **Domestic import and export data**: In September, China's exports increased by 8.3% year - on - year (previous value 4.4%), and imports increased by 7.4% year - on - year (expected 1.4%, previous value 1.3%). Exports showed a pattern of "strong in Europe, weak in the US", with strong growth in emerging markets. Imports reached a 1.5 - year high, and the quarterly import growth turned positive for the first time after three consecutive quarters of negative growth [20]. - **Next - week macro - outlook**: It includes data such as China's October LPR, 1 - 9 months' national real estate development investment, September industrial added value, and consumer retail sales, as well as events like the press conference on national economic operations and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China. For the international market, it includes the eurozone's October manufacturing PMI and the US September CPI and October manufacturing PMI [22]. 3.3 Copper Market Analysis - **Spot market**: The copper processing fee TC remained weak [25]. - **Domestic market**: The open interest of Shanghai copper options reached a new high. The open interest of copper futures, options, and international copper futures showed different trends. The net position of the top 10 traders and the futures closing price of cathode copper were also presented [28]. - **Overseas market**: The US dollar index weakened, and the LME copper price, LME copper basis, and COMEX copper non - commercial net position were analyzed [32]. - **Inventory**: Exchange inventories of copper in Shanghai bonded areas, SHFE, LME, and COMEX were shown. Social inventories of copper increased week - on - week as of October 16. The weekly operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 62.5% from October 10 - 16, and it was expected to rise to 66.26% from October 17 - 23 [33][38]. 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis - **Domestic market**: The spot price of electrolytic aluminum turned to par. The A00 aluminum ingot premium, the price difference between primary and secondary aluminum alloy ingots, and the social inventories of aluminum rods and electrolytic aluminum were presented. The open interest of Shanghai aluminum futures declined [42][43]. - **Overseas market**: The US dollar index weakened, and the LME 3 - month aluminum price, LME aluminum basis, and LME aluminum total inventory were analyzed [47]. - **Downstream开工率**: As of October 17, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 62.5%. Different sub - industries had different trends, with some expected to rise and some to fall [48]. - **Recycled aluminum alloy**: As of October 16, the spot price of recycled aluminum alloy increased week - on - week. The supply was tight, demand recovery was less than expected, the operating rate decreased slightly, and the social inventory began to gradually destock. The import loss narrowed [52]. 3.5 Alumina Market Analysis - **Spot market**: Alumina spot prices declined, and the prices of alumina in different regions, the average spot price index, and the prices of related raw materials such as bauxite and caustic soda were presented [62]. - **Futures market**: The inventory of alumina futures increased, and the basis, as well as the relationship between alumina futures prices and the prices of aluminum and caustic soda futures, were analyzed [64]. - **Supply and demand**: Supply decreased slightly as a Shanxi alumina enterprise reduced production. As of October 16, the built - in capacity of Chinese alumina was 114.8 million tons, and the operating capacity was 96.3 million tons. Demand from electrolytic aluminum enterprises remained stable, with some procurement activities [69]. - **Cost and profit**: As of October 17, the domestic alumina industry cost was 2980.53 yuan/ton, and the average profit was - 34.93 yuan/ton. Ore prices were in a stalemate, caustic soda prices first rose and then fell, and动力煤 prices increased [70].