Core Viewpoint - Fitch Solutions' BMI forecasts that iron ore prices will stabilize at an average of $95 per ton in 2026, slightly lower than the $97 per ton in 2023, due to increased supply from Guinea's Simandou project and weak domestic demand in mainland China [3][6]. Supply and Demand - Major miners' iron ore production remains healthy, with most maintaining or slightly increasing their output despite early-year weather impacts [4][5]. - China's domestic demand for steel and iron ore continues to be weak, with the official manufacturing PMI shrinking for the seventh consecutive month to 49 in October, and new home prices declining [3][8]. Long-term Price Outlook - BMI predicts a long-term downward trend in iron ore prices, projecting a decline from an average of $95 per ton in 2026 to $78 per ton by 2034, driven by slowing steel production growth and increased iron ore supply [6][9]. - The shift in China's economic structure from industrial and steel-intensive sectors to services and lower steel intensity infrastructure is expected to negatively impact iron ore demand [7][8]. Market Dynamics - The transition in China's economic growth trajectory is anticipated to suppress growth rates in steel consumption and production, with domestic steel output expected to align more closely with consumption patterns in the coming years [8]. - The global focus is shifting towards green or low-carbon steel, which requires significantly less iron ore compared to traditional blast furnace methods [8]. Risks and Opportunities - Current economic uncertainties present a dual risk for iron ore price forecasts, with potential further declines if China's economic growth continues to underperform expectations [10]. - Conversely, a strong recovery in China's real estate market could drive demand and support iron ore prices, alongside supply constraints from production mines [11].