低轨卫星星座建设

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【建筑建材】国内低轨星座建设加速,钙钛矿或成为降本突破口——低轨卫星行业研究系列之一(孙伟风)
光大证券研究· 2025-06-19 14:06
Core Viewpoint - The global low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite industry is rapidly expanding, with significant investments and plans from leading companies across various countries, particularly led by SpaceX, which has established itself as a dominant player in satellite deployment efficiency [3][4]. Group 1: Global Satellite Deployment - Major countries including the US, UK, Canada, Germany, Russia, South Korea, and China are launching large-scale satellite constellation plans, anticipating a peak in satellite launches in the coming years [3]. - SpaceX has achieved a production capacity of 5,000 user terminals per week and 120 satellites per month, with an average launch frequency of every 9 days [3]. Group 2: Domestic Satellite Initiatives - China's satellite constellation projects, such as the "Guowang" and "Qianfan" constellations, are progressing rapidly, with the "Guowang" constellation planning to deploy 12,992 satellites and having already launched 46 [4]. - The "Qianfan" constellation aims to deploy over 15,000 satellites, with 90 currently in orbit and plans for 648 satellites to be launched by the end of 2025 [4]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Cost Challenges - The trend towards miniaturization and modular manufacturing of satellites is crucial for meeting the demands of dense launches and rapid network replenishment [5]. - There is a significant cost disparity between domestic satellite manufacturing and SpaceX's standards, with domestic satellites costing approximately 30 million RMB each, compared to SpaceX's 3.5 million RMB [5]. - The launch cost per kilogram for domestic rockets remains significantly higher, ranging from 80,000 to 110,000 RMB, compared to SpaceX's approximately 2,700 USD [5]. Group 4: Energy System Innovations - Perovskite solar cells are emerging as a potential cost-reduction solution for satellite energy systems, which currently face high costs due to reliance on gallium arsenide batteries [6]. - The weight efficiency of perovskite solar cells is significantly higher, with a power-to-weight ratio of up to 23 W/g, compared to gallium arsenide's 0.4 W/g, leading to a weight reduction of over 98% for equivalent power output [6].