2026 年 1 月 9 日 行业研究 卫星星座组网加速，商业应用不断拓展 ——低轨卫星行业研究系列之四 要点 低轨卫星星座建设进入加速期，轨道与频谱资源争夺日趋激烈。低轨卫星凭借低 延迟、全球覆盖等优势，已成为商业航天发展的核心方向。当前各国正加快推进 低轨星座部署，以抢占有限的轨道和频谱资源。从轨道选择看，LEO 轨道因传 输损耗小、时延低，尤其适合实时通信与全球物联网连接；GEO 轨道容量趋于 饱和，MEO 则主要服务于导航等专项需求。频谱方面，行业正从传统的 C、Ku 频段向 Ka 等更高频段拓展，以支撑高通量数据传输。与此同时，卫星平台与载 荷技术持续升级，推动卫星向低成本、高性能、模块化方向发展，为大规模组网 奠定基础。 卫星平台与有效载荷技术持续突破，推动卫星性能提升与成本下降。卫星平台是 卫星稳定运行的基础，其结构、热控、姿轨控、电源等分系统日益集成化与智能 化。例如，结构分系统采用轻量化材料与模块化设计；热控技术结合被动与主动 手段，适应复杂空间环境；姿轨控系统逐步向星上自主处理演进。有效载荷作为 卫星功能的核心，正向多功能、软件定义方向演进。通信卫星已普遍采用相控阵 天线与处理式转发器，遥 ...

来源：行业报告研究院 有个数字一直让我很震惊。 根据业内人士透露，目前中国已发射的遥感卫星，数据利用率不到5%。换句话说，迄今为止积累的海 量遥感数据，有95%从来没人看过。 你没看错。我们花几十亿、几百亿发射到天上的卫星，拍下来的照片大部分在硬盘里吃灰。 这就有点讽刺了。 一边是商业航天产业如火如荼——2024年融资披露金额达181亿元，六大头部火箭企业估值突破千亿， 卫星发射数量年年创新高。 另一边呢？卫星公司们集体亏损。长光卫星3年半亏了12亿，国星宇航年亏4.4亿。 一边造星，一边亏钱。这究竟是怎么回事？ 先看几组数据：产业规模vs应用收入 中国商业航天的整体盘子有多大？我整理了几个权威机构的数据： 【图表1】中国商业航天市场规模增长趋势（2018-2025E） 看起来很漂亮，年均增速超过20%。但问题来了——钱都去哪了？ 【图表2】2024年商业航天投融资赛道分布 2025年中国商业航天行业市场前景预测研究报告》 你发现问题了吗？ 资本一窝蜂往上游和中游涌（卫星互联网41%+火箭25%+卫星制造18%=84%），但真正关乎"数据能不 能用起来"的遥感应用，融资占比只有2%。 这就是典型的"能力过剩、 ...

今日商业航天板块延续高景气态势，尾盘再度发力上攻，成为科技赛道核心亮点。中国卫星、航天环宇 尾盘强势封死涨停，强势带动板块情绪；此前航天发展、海格通信、大业股份等 10 余只个股已先后封 板，形成覆盖火箭制造、卫星应用、地面设备等多环节的上涨梯队。从交易端来看，板块资金关注度持 续攀升，尾盘资金进场迹象明显，反映出市场对商业航天行业规模化发展前景与产业红利释放的高度认 可。 技术突破密集落地，发射能力持续提升：据新华网 12 月 22 日报道，12 月 12 日长征十二号运载火箭在 海南商业航天发射场成功将 16 组低轨卫星送入预定轨道，创下该发射场工位占位时间最短纪录；12 月 3 日蓝箭航天 "朱雀三号" 遥一运载火箭发射升空，二级成功进入预定轨道，验证了多项核心技术。 市场规模再创新高，增长预期明确：东方财富网 12 月 29 日消息显示，2025 年中国商业航天产业规模 预计达 2.5-2.8 万亿元，年复合增长率超 20%，2030 年有望突破 7-10 万亿元；智通财经 12 月 26 日报 道，2025 年行业融资总额达 186 亿元，同比增长 32%，卫星应用、火箭制造领域融资最为集中。 地面 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the defense and aerospace industry is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The collaboration between policy and industry is driving a new development phase for China's commercial aerospace sector, with significant advancements in technology and capital market engagement expected [4][42] - The deployment of space computing is anticipated to create a sustainable economic model for commercial aerospace, with operational costs projected to be significantly lower than ground-based data centers [19][20] - The Chinese commercial aerospace industry is expected to achieve a market value of 85 billion yuan by 2030, driven by advancements in reusable rocket technology and increased launch frequency [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Low Earth Orbit Satellite Planning - China has ambitious plans for low Earth orbit satellites, with over 12,000 satellites proposed under the national plan and additional projects like the G60 constellation aiming for over 14,000 satellites [12] - However, the launch progress is slow, with only 86 satellites launched by the national plan and 90 by the G60 project as of October 2025, indicating significant bottlenecks in deployment [12] 2. Space Computing Potential - Space computing is expected to provide a solution for the long-term economic closure of commercial aerospace, with lifecycle operational costs projected to be 1/20 of ground-based data centers [19] - The anticipated deployment of space computing will enable a "multi-launch, multi-saving" model, enhancing operational efficiency and reducing costs [20] 3. Challenges and Breakthroughs in Space Computing - The deployment of space computing faces challenges such as launch capacity, radiation resistance of electronic components, and energy supply in orbit, but clear pathways for technological breakthroughs are emerging [29][30] - Companies are developing solutions to address these challenges, including advanced radiation shielding and energy-efficient cooling systems [31] 4. Industry Transformation through Space Computing - The introduction of space computing is expected to catalyze a significant transformation in the commercial aerospace industry, enabling large-scale applications and innovations as costs decrease [36] - The capacity limitations of low Earth orbit satellites will accelerate the deployment of space computing clusters, which are prioritized for their favorable conditions [36] 5. Comparison with U.S. Industry - There are notable gaps between China's and the U.S.'s capabilities in space computing, particularly in launch capacity and cost efficiency, with China's reusable rocket technology still in the validation phase [38] - The expected advancements in China's reusable rocket technology are projected to follow a similar trajectory to that of SpaceX, with significant improvements anticipated in the coming years [38]

国元证券发布研报称，运力及发射成本的显著优化带动单位比特传输成本持续下降，星座组网节奏有望 加快，并间接带动卫星星座运营的系统效能，下游服务应用有望迸发。推荐关注卫星载荷制造及导航模 组的领先供应商。 从产业链来看 国元证券主要观点如下： 运力环节瓶颈缓解有望推动制造端优先受益据最新统计，2024年地面设备收入占全球卫星产业总收入比 重最高，但未来随着星间链路等星上OBP技术的实现，星座对地面基站的依赖度有望降低，从而间接压 缩卫星运营成本，卫星制造及服务端的收入占比有望提升，尤其是面向消费者的宽带终端、物联网终端 以及面向行业的专用通信设备需求将迎来增长。这为拥有核心硬件研发能力和规模化交付能力的国内企 业提供了前所未有的市场机遇。 低轨(LEO)卫星通信正迈入规模化部署与商业化落地的关键阶段 风险提示 宏观环境波动风险，星座部署与商业回报周期错配风险，审价、竞争性谈判及招投标方式定价波动风 险。 在全球数字化进程加速、地面通信网络覆盖存在天然盲区、以及新兴应用场景(如低空经济、远洋通 信、应急救灾、物联网广域连接等)不断涌现的背景下，低轨卫星以其低时延、高带宽、广覆盖及低地 面站依赖度的独特优势，成为构建 ...

开源证券发布研报称，卫星产业链中，上游卫星制造与发射环节于组网高峰率先受益。按产业链细分， 卫星产业链包括空间段(卫星制造与火箭发射)、地面段(信关站、核心网、监测站等地面设施建设)、用 户段的全生命周期链条;其中，上游卫星制造与发射在如今低轨卫星组网环节上率先受益。 市场规模潜力大，成长性强：低轨卫星星座已成为大国太空博弈的新赛道，在频轨资源争夺下，卫星产 业市场空间剑指万亿。低轨卫星资源争夺倒逼下，卫星全产业链有望从"投入孵化期"提前步入"盈利兑 现期"。卫星产业链中，上游卫星制造与发射环节于组网高峰率先受益。 该行此前于多篇报告中推荐卫星的投资机会：提出军工(卫星)的投资机会;在《广发中证卫星产业 ETF(512630.OF)的核心投资价值——市场规模大、政策技术双驱动、应用场景丰富》中提出"卫星产业 是确定性较强的战略投资机会，具备市场规模潜力大、政策强力支持、技术迭代加速、应用场景拓宽等 特征。""当下是配置卫星产业的时间点"。更进一步的，当前商业航天(卫星)领域的催化进一步加速，该 行认为当下处在配置卫星产业的黄金窗口。 事件：近期低轨卫星频发，叠加可回收火箭发射的重大事件 今年以来，中国低轨卫星 ...

《中国经济的"长坡厚雪"，到底厚在哪？》 第一，独特优势的叠加效应正在放大。超大规模市场像"深厚雪场"，完整产业体系是"滑雪板"，制度优势则是"助推器"。三者一叠加，各类资源迅速向关键 领域汇聚，新能源汽车、低轨卫星、新质生产力等赛道的突破，就是这种结构力量的最好注脚。"韧性不是喊出来的，而是结构写出来的"。 第二，政策更聪明了，方向更精准了。从育儿补贴到免费学前教育，从消费贷款贴息到物流成本下降，再到全国统一大市场纵深推进，政策像是在持续为经 济"上润滑油"。财政与金融协同，供给与需求并进，把潜能转成动能，把动能转成实绩。 第三，战略定力来自规律认识的深化。越是风高浪急，中国越强调方法论和长期主义。理论创新成果不断落地，避免了"急刹车—急转弯"的政策摇摆，构建 出更稳的治理框架。这是一种来自内在成熟的"光照式稳健"。 未来当然不会平坦，但趋势清晰、逻辑稳固。"十五五"是通向现代化的新坡道，只要继续发挥比较优势，把自己的事办好，中国经济不仅能行稳致远，还能 在长坡厚雪上滑出新的加速度。 ——站在"十四五"收官与"十五五"将启的时间交汇点，重新理解中国经济的韧性、潜能与长期逻辑 ama r person U - ...

Core Insights - The Chinese commercial aerospace industry is experiencing a surge in investment and financing, driven by national strategy and technological advancements, as it transitions from a technical breakthrough phase to a stage focused on industrial capacity building [1][2][3] Investment and Financing Trends - The commercial aerospace sector has maintained high levels of investment activity, with companies like Tianbing Technology, Infinite Aerospace, and others making significant financing progress across various sub-sectors such as rocket development and satellite manufacturing [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has included commercial aerospace in the fifth set of standards for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, facilitating capital access for unprofitable hard-tech companies [2][3] Industry Dynamics - There is a pressing demand for satellite launches in China, with over 30,000 low-orbit satellites submitted to the International Telecommunication Union, creating immense launch requirements [2] - The competition among commercial rocket companies is shifting from individual launch success to building a complete industrial chain that encompasses research, manufacturing, and launch services [2][3] Criteria for Industrialization Capability - Three key metrics define the industrialization capability of commercial aerospace companies: 1. **Full-chain Technical Autonomy**: Essential for cost reduction and technological iteration, requiring self-research across the entire rocket development process [4] 2. **Scale Manufacturing and Launch Service Capability**: The ability to provide stable and high-frequency launch services is crucial for achieving commercial aerospace value [5] 3. **Rapid Iteration and Learning Capability**: The industry must focus on quick learning and optimization rather than aiming for zero errors, emphasizing a cycle of systematic trial and error [5][6] Future Outlook - The ultimate competition in commercial aerospace will hinge on the integration of talent, technology, products, and market capabilities [6] - The next five years will be critical for China's positioning in the global space economy, with IPOs serving as a starting point for companies to demonstrate their comprehensive capabilities [6]

Core Insights - The low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite market is becoming a strategic focus in the US-China competition, with the principle of "first come, first served" governing orbital and frequency resources [1][2] - SpaceX has launched over 10,000 satellites, with more than 8,600 currently operational, while China has only about 300 LEO satellites in orbit, indicating a significant gap that necessitates accelerated deployment [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The LEO orbit can accommodate approximately 60,000 satellites, and strict international regulations require timely launches to retain frequency and orbital rights [2] - SpaceX has applied for resources for 42,000 satellites, while Amazon's Kuiper plans to deploy 3,236 satellites; China's China Star Network and Shanghai Yuanxin plans to deploy around 13,000 and 15,000 satellites, respectively [2] Group 2: Launch Capacity and Technology - Rocket launch capacity is a critical metric, with SpaceX's Falcon 9 capable of 22.8 tons to LEO, while China's Long March 8 has a capacity of only 7 tons, highlighting a significant disparity [3] - The development of commercial rockets and reusable technology is progressing rapidly in China, with several private companies achieving successful launches and narrowing the gap with international standards [3] Group 3: Cost Reduction Strategies - SpaceX has reduced the cost of individual satellites to below $500,000 through mass production, while China's satellite manufacturing is also lowering costs via modular design and batch production [4] Group 4: Market Opportunities - LEO satellites are expected to integrate deeply with terrestrial 5G networks, enabling global seamless coverage, with significant advancements anticipated by 2025 [5] - The combination of artificial intelligence (AI) and LEO satellites is leading to the development of next-generation intelligent satellite systems, with major tech companies like NVIDIA and Google planning to deploy AI-capable satellites [5] Group 5: Future Developments - China's LEO satellite deployment is entering a rapid networking phase, with recent successful launches indicating an acceleration in the pace of deployment [6][7] - The domestic market is moving towards a "constellation deployment" phase, transitioning from "single satellite customization" [7] Group 6: Investment Opportunities - Companies to watch include Fudan Microelectronics (688385.SH) and Unisoc (002249.SZ) as potential investment targets in the LEO satellite sector [8]

Core Insights - The low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite sector has become a new market hotspot, driven by significant developments in satellite communication technology and supportive government policies [2][3][6] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The LEO satellite industry chain has seen a collective surge, with notable performance from key players: China Satellite (up 57%), Holleywo (up 32%), and Shanghai Hantong (up 17%) [2] - Major policy support includes the "14th Five-Year Plan," which emphasizes accelerating the construction of LEO satellite constellations and prioritizing space resource development [3][6] - The successful launch of 12 LEO communication satellites by the Long March 6 rocket on October 26 has further ignited market enthusiasm, with China Satellite hitting the daily limit on stock price increase [3][6] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The global LEO satellite race is dominated by the U.S. and China, with SpaceX's Starlink leading with 8,371 satellites in orbit, accounting for 89.6% of the global total [4][6][11] - China's GW constellation and Qianfan constellation plan to deploy a total of 25,000 satellites by 2027, positioning China as a key competitor in the LEO satellite space [6][11] Group 3: Technological Advancements - Recent technological breakthroughs have transformed LEO satellites from a distant concept to a practical necessity, with significant cost reductions in satellite launches and the introduction of satellite communication features in high-end smartphones by Huawei and Apple [7][10] - The market for LEO satellites is projected to reach $300 billion by 2025 and $1.79 trillion by 2035, with China's market expected to exceed 350 billion yuan by 2025 [8][10] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Companies involved in satellite manufacturing and launch services are positioned as key beneficiaries of the LEO satellite deployment, with China Satellite holding over 50 billion yuan in orders [13][14] - The demand for core components and testing equipment is expected to grow significantly, driven by the increasing number of satellites in orbit and the commercialization of satellite communication [14][16] - The consumer market for satellite communication is expanding, with potential growth in applications such as emergency communication and maritime connectivity [14][16]