摘要： 产业观察 [table_Header]2026.02.27 风起青萍，拥抱趋势，空天产业 2026 年十大展望 产业研究中心 [商业航天展望 Table_Summary] 低空经济展望 风险提示 1）可复用火箭研制及回收试验不及预期；2）巨型星座组网进度及商业化 落地缓慢；3）工业无人机市场竞争加剧致盈利持续承压；4）重型无人机 及 eVTOL 适航取证与场景落地不及预期。 | [Table_Authors] | 周天乐(分析师) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 0755-23976003 | | | | zhoutianle@gtht.com | 登记编号 | S0880520010003 | | 徐淋(分析师) | | | | 021-38677826 | | | | xulin4@gtht.com | 登记编号 | | | S0880523090005 | | | | 肖洁(分析师) | | | | | xiaojie3@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 登记编号 | 021-38674660 S0880513080002 | [Table_Report] ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：有研识泰山 过去我们习惯了 "唱空中国"，如今又流行起"唱衰美国"，预测华尔街何时崩盘。2024年，我也曾是其中的一员，认为华 尔街风险高企，道指、纳指高得离谱。2025年，英伟达股价从140美元暴跌至80美元的"雪崩"，似乎印 证了这种担忧。然而，短暂的风暴过后，道指与纳指却再创历史新高。 这不禁让我们反思：为什么我们会觉得股市太高？人性中有畏高和从众的心理，但资本市场往往是反人 性的，甚至反常识。华尔街有一条百年铁律：在很多时候，股价越贵，反而越安全。因为那里凝聚着最 优质的资产、最强大的信心和最前沿的未来。 如今，全球呈现几大奇观：不倒的华尔街、不倒的巴菲特、不倒的黄金，还有疯狂的马斯克、自大的川 普，以及半疯半傲的黄仁勋。尽管2026年1月29日黄金也曾"雪崩"，但历史告诉我们，它是否会像2025 年的华尔街一样，在暴跌后昂扬而去？ 当我们透视华尔街与A股时，习惯从"中美博弈"或"国运之争"的角度切入。这固然重要，但这些维度都 潜藏着"此消彼长"、"输赢对决"的预设。但如果我们将视野拉高，跳出地球的局限，抽离历史的惯性， ...

西南证券发布研报称，商业航天正式迈入建设期，通信行业开启"星座级Capex"新周期，是2026年最具 确定性的核心主线。商业航天已从前期技术验证与主题探索阶段，进入以规模化星座部署为核心的建设 期。在国家战略高度持续提升、"十五五"规划明确指引的背景下，低轨卫星作为6G"空天地一体化"网络 的关键基础设施，其发展具备明显的政策刚性。同时，低轨轨道与频谱资源高度稀缺且不可再生，全球 可用容量有限，中国在发射与规划层面持续推进，行业具备"必须做、且要抢时间"的战略特征。由此， 商业航天投资逻辑由主题驱动，明确切换至以网络建设为核心的Capex周期。 当前阶段，火箭回收与发射体系完善推动发星成本下降、效率提升，使星座部署由"可行"迈向"可持 续";发射频率提升后，卫星通信质量与覆盖能力同步改善，带动应用场景向更多行业渗透;应用规模扩大 后，收入增长将反哺产业链，推动商业航天由主题投资向可验证的产业周期演进。阶段上看，前期市场 已更多关注"火箭回收"的降本逻辑，后续有望逐步向运载能力提升、发射基地配套及终端侧轮动。 高速光连接是AI算力基础设施升级的重要组成部分，确定性持续增强 随着算力集群规模扩大与通信带宽需求提升 ...

Core Insights - The commercial aerospace sector has officially entered a construction phase, marking the beginning of a new "constellation-level Capex" cycle in the communication industry, which is identified as the most certain core theme for 2026. The transition from technology validation to large-scale constellation deployment is driven by national strategic priorities and the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4][6] - The investment logic in commercial aerospace has shifted from thematic drivers to a focus on network construction, emphasizing the need for faster, cheaper, and more frequent satellite launches. Key constraints such as rocket capabilities, launch facilities, and ground communication systems are being gradually lifted [4][6] - The demand for high-speed optical connections is increasing as a critical component of AI computing infrastructure upgrades, with optical module port rates evolving towards 800G and 1.6T, indicating strong visibility and early realization of orders [4][6] - Liquid cooling technology is becoming a key structural increment in AI computing infrastructure upgrades, as traditional air cooling solutions face efficiency and space constraints. The penetration rate of liquid cooling is expected to rise alongside capital expenditures in computing [4][6] Industry Review - The communication sector maintained a positive revenue growth of 2.9% year-on-year, reaching a total revenue of 19.5 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, supported by the 5G-A construction cycle and positive impacts from optical modules and liquid cooling [20][19] - Profit levels in the communication sector improved, with total profits reaching 193.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, indicating a positive trend in profitability [21][19] - The overall expense control was effective, with a sales expense ratio of 6.5% and a management expense ratio of 5.1% in the first three quarters of 2025, both showing a decrease compared to the previous year [26][25] Key Strategies - The first main strategy focuses on the construction phase of commercial aerospace, which is expected to drive a new "constellation-level Capex" cycle in the communication industry [6][36] - The second main strategy emphasizes the ongoing demand for AI computing, which will continue to drive upgrades in communication infrastructure [6][36] Investment Focus - Key stocks to watch include Kunheng Shunwei (688283), Aofei Data (300738), and Guanghuan Xinwang (300383), which are positioned to benefit from the trends in commercial aerospace and AI computing [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The current phase of domestic low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite launches has entered a substantial stage, coinciding with the commercial space sector, driven by relevant policies and industry dynamics, indicating strong certainty in the construction of satellite networks as a foundation for 6G network development [1] Group 1: Industry Developments - The preliminary research phase for reusable rockets has commenced with the first launch project, and multiple commercial rocket reusable launch plans are progressing in an orderly manner, marking an acceleration in the realization of commercial space [1] - The development of satellite internet is rapidly gaining momentum, with regular launches of satellite constellations leading to increased communication capacity and reduced latency [1] Group 2: Applications and Recommendations - There is potential for the rapid implementation of applications such as mobile broadband direct connection to satellites and intelligent driving systems linked to low Earth orbit satellite networks [1] - The report emphasizes recommending suppliers of components and chips related to low Earth orbit satellites [1]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Outperform the market (expected to outperform the market by more than 5% in the next 6 months) [36] Core Insights - The space economy has a broad outlook, with commercial aerospace becoming a vital engine for economic growth and technological advancement, forming a competitive landscape among major global economies [4][9] - The global commercial aerospace market is expected to reach USD 500 billion by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1%, driven by low Earth orbit satellite networks, reusable rockets, and space economy derivative businesses [4][9] - China has submitted an application for 203,000 low Earth orbit satellite frequency resources, indicating a competitive race for orbital resources, with a consensus that the safe deployment limit is approximately 100,000 satellites [15][4] - The global rocket launch service market reached USD 16.45 billion in 2023, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% from 2023 to 2032, driven by large satellite constellation projects [26][4] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The global commercial aerospace market is entering a phase of "scale deployment, commercial deepening, and global competition," with significant growth expected in low Earth orbit satellite networks and reusable rockets [4][9] - The domestic commercial aerospace industry is optimizing resource allocation and expanding market applications, with a focus on satellite constellation construction [4][9] Industry Chain - The commercial aerospace industry chain includes multiple segments from research and development, manufacturing, launching, to application services, with upstream focusing on satellite and rocket components, midstream on rocket assembly and launch services, and downstream on satellite operations [10][4] Investment Recommendations - Companies in the aerospace industry are expected to benefit from the ongoing growth, with key players identified including Aerospace Power, Aerospace Hongtu, China Satellite, and others [34][4]

Core Viewpoint - The commercial aerospace sector has become a focal point in the capital market due to breakthroughs in reusable rocket technology, accelerated low-orbit satellite networking, and favorable national policies. Despite recent market fluctuations, the long-term growth logic of the industry remains intact, with multiple catalysts expected in 2026 [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The A-share commercial aerospace sector has shown significant volatility, with a cumulative increase of over 55% from December 2025 to January 12, 2026, followed by a decline of over 4% by January 20, indicating a struggle between valuation and performance [2][3]. - The recent strong performance is attributed to a key breakthrough in large reusable liquid rocket technology and supportive policies, including the National Space Administration's action plan for high-quality development in commercial aerospace [2][3]. Investment Opportunities - Despite short-term fluctuations, industry experts remain optimistic about the long-term growth of the commercial aerospace sector, expecting it to benefit from policy, technology, and capital catalysts in 2026. Key investment opportunities are identified in specific sub-sectors [4][5]. - Four main areas of focus include: 1. Rocket technology, where cost reductions are expected to drive demand [5] 2. Core materials, particularly titanium, which is essential for aerospace applications [5] 3. 3D printing technology, which is anticipated to see increased usage as aerospace models evolve [5] 4. Companies in the SpaceX supply chain, which may experience earlier performance releases compared to domestic counterparts [5] Future Trends - The commercial aerospace industry is still in its early stages, with significant potential for growth. Key areas of interest include core components with technological barriers and potential asset consolidation opportunities [6]. - The deployment of low-orbit satellite constellations is expected to create market demand in communication, navigation, and IoT applications, although the commercialization of new models like space computing is still in exploratory phases [6].

周二舆情热度20260127 ①商业航天-从中国星网获悉，计划在2026至2030年间部署1.3万颗低轨卫星，内部已打算启动相关招标流程；（商 业航天/信维通信、天银机电、航宇微、顺灏股份、航天发展、三维通信等; 太空光伏/拓日新能，电科芯片、宇晶 股份、赛伍技术、金辰股份等） ①商业航天-从中国星网获悉，计划在2026至2030年间部署1.3万颗低轨卫星，内部已打算启动相关招标流程；（商 业航天/信维通信、天银机电、航宇微、顺灏股份、航天发展、三维通信等; 太空光伏/拓日新能，电科芯片、宇晶 股份、赛伍技术、金辰股份等） ②泛AI-大厂开启春节AI应用"流量大战"，腾讯、百度均发布春节现金红包活动；（亚康股份、航宇微、汉得信 息、长盈精密、蓝色光标、天地在线、凡拓数创等） ③机器人-中央广播电视总台与魔法原子联合宣布，魔法原子成为总台《2026年春节联欢晚会》智能机器人战略合 作伙伴。 ②泛AI-大厂开启春节AI应用"流量大战"，腾讯、百度均发布春节现金红包活动；（亚康股份、航宇微、汉得信 息、长盈精密、蓝色光标、天地在线、凡拓 周二舆情热度20260127 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the defense and military industry [4] Core Insights - The management adjustment at China Star Network is expected to accelerate the commercialization of satellite internet, with plans to deploy 13,000 low-orbit satellites between 2026 and 2030 [11][12] - The commercial space industry is projected to achieve 50 launches in 2025, marking a significant turning point in 2026, driven by policy support and advancements in reusable rocket technology [13][16] - The report emphasizes continued optimism for commercial aerospace, large aircraft, new combat capabilities, and military trade as key growth areas [16] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The defense and military industry is experiencing a positive trend, with a 4.37% increase in the industry index, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [18][19] Commercial Aerospace - The management changes at China Star Network reflect a strategic focus on fulfilling satellite constellation deployment goals, with a critical period from 2027 to 2029 for compliance with ITU regulations [12] - The rapid growth in commercial space launches is highlighted, with 50 launches expected in 2025, representing 54% of total space launches in China [13][15] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several investment targets within the commercial aerospace sector, including: - Aerospace Electronics (600879, Buy) - National Science and Technology Military Industry (688543, Not Rated) - Aerospace Power (600343, Not Rated) [16] - The report also highlights potential in the large aircraft and military trade sectors, suggesting a broad development space for military enterprises [16]

Core Viewpoint - China has submitted an application to the International Telecommunication Union for frequency and orbital resources for an additional 203,000 satellites, covering 14 satellite constellations, marking a new record for the country in terms of application quantity [1] Group 1: Industry Development - The commercial space industry in China is rapidly advancing, with projections indicating that the industry scale will reach between 2.5 trillion to 2.8 trillion yuan by 2025, involving over 600 related enterprises [2] - The global low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite planning has surpassed 100,000 satellites, indicating a new phase of dense networking and large-scale development in the industry [1][2] - The construction of a LEO satellite internet requires a high number of satellites, necessitating the deployment of hundreds of satellites within one to two years to establish a self-controlled LEO satellite internet [2] Group 2: Technological Innovation - The "Thousand Sails Constellation" project employs a strategy of "developing one generation, pre-researching one generation, and planning one generation," allowing for continuous optimization based on in-orbit performance [3] - Collaborative innovation is essential, as breakthroughs in upstream materials and components require validation in the midstream manufacturing process, while downstream application demands can drive technological research [3] Group 3: Market Applications - The commercial space sector has diverse application scenarios, including eliminating communication blind spots in remote areas, providing real-time communication for ocean-going vessels, and delivering remote sensing data for precision agriculture [4] - The policy environment for commercial space has been continuously optimized, with initiatives such as the establishment of a commercial space administration and the facilitation of commercial rocket companies accessing the Science and Technology Innovation Board [4]