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青岛港(601298):低PE、高ROE,拟现金收购增厚EPS
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-04-30 03:42
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Port, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next six months [4][6][28]. Core Views - Qingdao Port is positioned as the largest foreign trade port in Northern China, with a strong growth trajectory in cargo throughput and a robust dividend policy. The company is expected to benefit from the construction of a Northeast Asia international shipping hub and resilient external demand [1][3]. - The adjusted restructuring plan involves a cash acquisition of high-quality oil product assets, which is projected to enhance the company's earnings per share (EPS) by 6.07% despite a slight dilution in return on equity (ROE) [2][4]. - The company exhibits a low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.7, which is below many peers, combined with a high ROE of 13% and a consistent dividend payout ratio averaging 44% from 2018 to 2024, highlighting its long-term investment value [3][4]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue is projected to grow from 18,173.13 million yuan in 2023 to 21,259.96 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3.02% [5][21]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 4,923.32 million yuan in 2023 to 5,915.14 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a steady growth trend [5][21]. - The company's P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 11.33 in 2023 to 9.43 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics over time [5][21]. Market Position and Performance - Qingdao Port's cargo and container throughput is anticipated to maintain stable growth through 2025, supported by ongoing port integration and a favorable cargo structure [1][2]. - The company has a strong financial position with a low debt-to-asset ratio of 26.03%, indicating a solid balance sheet and capacity for future growth [6][21].