Core Insights - The report by Goldman Sachs highlights the transition of China's real estate market from new development to existing property management, driven by policy and housing upgrade demands, predicting a total addressable market (TAM) of 5.7 trillion RMB by 2035, a 70% increase from 2024 [1] Group 1: Key Conclusions for the Real Estate Industry by 2035 - Housing demand is expected to reach 60% of the peak level in 2017, with necessity, improvement, and renewal demands contributing equally. The share of demand from first and second-tier cities will rise from 60% in 2024 to approximately 70% [4] - Government and developers will adjust land supply based on demand, leading to further consolidation in the developer industry. The top ten developers are projected to capture about 50% of the national market share by sales by 2035, with new housing market size significantly shrinking, averaging 40% lower than 2024 levels [5] - The second-hand housing market will account for 66% of total sales volume and 64% of total value due to reduced new housing supply, aligning with levels seen in developed markets [6] - Renovation will emerge as a key driver, with an expected renovation rate of about 1% by 2035, leading to a total building area of over 110 billion square meters, with renovated areas nearly doubling to represent about 60% of total building area [7] Group 2: Four Core Trends Reshaping the Industry Landscape - A structural shift in housing demand is anticipated, with total demand expected to fall to 60% of the 2017 peak, but with a significant change in demand structure, where improvement and old housing renewal demands will rise, contributing to 70% of the demand from first-tier and new first-tier cities [8] - Both land supply and developer concentration are expected to increase, with government land supply favoring high-demand areas and leading developers accelerating expansion into T-1/2 cities. The market share of the top ten developers is projected to rise from 21% in 2024 to 50% by 2035 [10] - The rise of the second-hand housing market will counterbalance the decline in new housing, with second-hand transactions expected to account for 66% of total transactions and 64% of total transaction value by 2035, aligning with developed market standards [11] - Renovation will become a core driver, with an annual renovation rate increasing to 1%, leading to a demand for the renovation of over 20 billion square meters by 2035, driven by policies promoting upgrades and quality of living [12] Group 3: Opportunities and Challenges in the Industry Chain - Demand for construction products will diversify, with strong cyclical categories like glass and ceramics facing short-term pressure, while demand for energy-saving materials and aging-friendly renovations will partially offset declines, with market size expected to decrease by 10%-15% by 2035 [14] - The renovation market is projected to experience explosive growth, driven by existing property renovations and second-hand transactions, with the home decoration industry expected to exceed 3 trillion RMB, accounting for 32% of the total industry chain [14] - The expansion of property management and brokerage services is anticipated, with active second-hand transactions and asset preservation needs leading to an expected revenue scale of 2.7 trillion RMB in property management and brokerage, representing 30% of the industry chain [14]