住房改善需求

Search documents
克而瑞发布2025中国房地产投资前景排行榜:上海、北京稳居前二 一线城市率先释放更多筑底信号
智通财经网· 2025-07-28 11:10
Core Viewpoint - The 2025 China Real Estate Investment Outlook Rankings indicate that Shanghai and Beijing maintain their top two positions due to significant advantages in both supply and demand sides, supported by a large resident population and housing improvement needs [1][4][7]. Group 1: Rankings and Changes - Shanghai and Beijing continue to hold the top two positions for 11 consecutive years, with no city challenging their status since 2015 [1][4]. - Shenzhen has risen to third place, driven by strong economic vitality and population growth, with a 23% year-on-year increase in residential transaction value in 2024 [7][20]. - Hangzhou and Chengdu remain stable in fourth and fifth positions among second-tier cities, showing resilience in demand and controlled inventory risks [7][12]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The top 50 cities account for 34% of the national resident population and 50% of GDP, indicating a concentration of housing demand in economically developed areas [8][10]. - The demand side is supported by a significant influx of population and a strong need for housing improvement, particularly in first-tier cities [16][17]. - The average annual incremental housing demand in the top 20 cities is projected to reach 300 million square meters, driven by population concentration and housing condition upgrades [16][17]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Analysis - First-tier cities exhibit the best demand stability and manageable inventory risks, with significant growth in both new and second-hand housing transactions [20][22]. - The demand structure in first-tier cities is shifting, with external population driving demand rather than urbanization rates, as many residents are still seeking housing [22][23]. - Second-tier cities like Tianjin, Hangzhou, and Chengdu show potential for demand growth, supported by urbanization and population influx [26][27]. Group 4: Third-tier Cities and Future Outlook - Third-tier cities still have considerable room for urbanization, with many cities experiencing rapid growth in urban population [33][35]. - The government is focusing on urban renewal and housing security, which will enhance demand in third-tier cities [35][39]. - The issuance of special bonds for urban renewal projects is expected to support housing demand and inventory reduction in these cities [37][39].