Report Investment Ratings - All three sectors (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [4][6][9] Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season is expected to have a loose supply. In China, the tight inventory before the new cotton harvest drives up the price, but the strong expectation of a good harvest and weak terminal demand limit the upside. In the long - term, the new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress the price [3] - The global sugar market is in an increasing production cycle, which will suppress the ICE raw sugar price in the long - term. For Zhengzhou sugar, the low domestic industrial inventory supports the price, but the expected increase in imports will limit the upside. The new sugar listing in the new season will increase the downward pressure [5][6] - The pulp price rebounded due to the short - term macro - sentiment boost, but the supply pressure remains in the second half of the year, and the demand improvement is limited. The industry lacks positive drivers [8] Market News and Important Data Cotton - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 14,075 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan/ton (-0.67%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,473 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,609 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton [2] - As of July 17, 2025, the US cumulative net signed export of 2024/25 cotton was 2.775 million tons, reaching 108% of the annual expected export volume, and the cumulative shipment was 2.539 million tons, with a shipment rate of 91.51% [2] Sugar - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,845 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton (-0.53%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,915 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [5] - Brazil exported 3,175,734.56 tons of sugar in the first four weeks of July, with a daily average export of 167,143.92 tons, a 2% increase compared to the daily average in July last year. As of July 20, the third - party warehouse inventory in Guangxi was about 910,000 tons, 190,000 tons more than last year [5] Pulp - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,360 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan/ton (-2.90%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,360 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis Cotton - Internationally, the international cotton market lacks clear direction. The 25/26 global cotton market will have a loose supply. The US cotton balance sheet is hard to improve significantly, and the price will fluctuate with the macro - market sentiment. Domestically, the fast de - stocking of commercial inventory and the expected tight inventory before the new cotton harvest drive up the price, but the good harvest expectation and weak terminal demand limit the upside [3] Sugar - For raw sugar, the high sugar - making ratio in Brazil and the optimistic production estimates in India and Thailand will suppress the ICE raw sugar price in the long - term, but the narrow sugar - alcohol price difference and India's policies bring uncertainties. For Zhengzhou sugar, the low domestic industrial inventory supports the price, but the expected increase in imports limits the upside [5][6] Pulp - The pulp price rebounded due to the short - term macro - sentiment boost. The supply pressure remains in the second half of the year as the port de - stocking is slow and domestic production capacity is increasing. The demand improvement is limited due to the weak overseas consumption and the traditional off - season in China [8] Strategies Cotton - The long - term industry does not have a continuous upward driver, and the upside of the far - month 01 contract is limited [4] Sugar - In the short - term, Zhengzhou sugar will fluctuate within a range, and the long - term trend is bearish [6] Pulp - The short - term price increase is driven by macro - sentiment, and the fundamentals are not improved. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities after the macro - stimulus ends [9]