SHMET 网讯：铝月度金属指数 (MMI) 维持横盘整理，并略有上行，8月至9月上涨0.56%。与此同时，全球铝价创下年初以来的新高。 尽管上海期货交易所（SHFE）和伦敦金属交易所（LME）的库存都处于低位，但也已开始反弹。持续的库存增长将有助于平息供应方面的担忧。伦敦金属 交易所库存下降的部分原因并非特殊的需求状况，而是由于持续的乌克兰战争导致LME决定阻止俄罗斯材料进入仓库。迄今为止，中国继续购买俄罗斯铝 材，从而填补了欧洲留下的缺口。因此，尽管制裁转移了出口方向，但并未将俄罗斯铝材从全球市场上剔除。 全球供应担忧推动铝价上涨 美国铝需求下降 市场对供应短缺的担忧逐渐显现，铝价突破横盘整理趋势，伦敦金属交易所 (LME) 铝价在9月16日收盘时触及六个月高点。 与此同时，美国关税抑制了美国铝需求状况，并改变了贸易流向。据美国铝业协会称，2025年上半年北美铝需求下降了4.4%。除铝箔外，所有细分市场的 需求均有所下降。 多年来，全球产能过剩加剧。需求状况依然疲软。 在需求放缓和关税压力下，加拿大生产商已将铝出口转向欧洲。事实上，最近的数据显示，欧洲在魁北克铝出口中的占比从第一季度的0.2%上升至第二季 ...

Group 1 - The UK manufacturing sector's improvement over the past three months has reversed in August, with the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropping from 48 in July to 47, marking 11 consecutive months of contraction [1] - Domestic and overseas market demand is declining at the fastest rate in nearly two years, as indicated by the August PMI data [1] - The total order volume for UK manufacturing in August fell below July levels and significantly below long-term averages, with export orders also declining more than in July [1] Group 2 - Input cost pressures for UK manufacturers are rising, with the input cost price index increasing from 57.0 in July to 57.7 in August due to higher minimum wage and national insurance tax rates [2] - Despite rising input costs, non-food retail prices in the UK are shrinking, making it difficult for manufacturers to pass on these costs to consumers, as non-food prices fell by 0.8% year-on-year in August [2] - The output price index for manufacturers decreased from 55.6 to 53.7, indicating that manufacturers are absorbing additional costs rather than raising prices [2] Group 3 - The UK manufacturing sector is facing a dual challenge with insufficient domestic market demand and rising costs, with no signs of relief in sight [3] - Domestic market demand is weak due to persistent inflation, exemplified by a 14% year-on-year drop in domestic car sales in July [3] - Exports to the US have also significantly declined, with a £700 million drop in goods exports in July, representing a 14.5% decrease, the lowest level since February 2022 [3] Group 4 - The UK government's tax increases have exacerbated cost pressures in the manufacturing and service sectors without alleviating fiscal pressures [4] - The outlook for UK manufacturing remains challenging due to weak demand, trade friction, and increased policy uncertainty [4] - The upcoming autumn budget is seen as a critical moment for boosting business confidence, with calls for certainty in corporate tax and support for industrial and infrastructure strategies [4]

Core Viewpoint - Songyuan reported a decline in revenue for Q2 2025, with a comprehensive sales figure of 2,654 billion KRW, a 3.0% decrease compared to the same period last year, while the first half of 2025 saw a 2.2% increase in sales compared to 2024 [1] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Songyuan recorded a loss of 1.481 billion KRW, significantly lower than the profit of 10.575 billion KRW in the same quarter last year [1] - For the first half of 2025, the profit was 3.376 billion KRW, down from 17.237 billion KRW in the previous year [1] Market Challenges - The company continues to face challenges from Q1 2025, including weak global demand, geopolitical uncertainties, and ongoing pressure on profit margins [1] - Macroeconomic factors such as geopolitical restrictions and regulatory changes have consistently impacted market demand [1] - Increased uncertainty in U.S. trade policies and currency fluctuations have intensified competition in key markets, particularly in Asia and Europe [1] Future Outlook - Songyuan anticipates a slowdown in overall economic growth, with continued pressure on profit margins due to oversupply, leading to demand potentially falling short of previous expectations [1] - The company plans to monitor global developments closely and believes it can address emerging challenges while providing reliable product supply to customers [1]

Report Investment Ratings - All three sectors (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [4][6][9] Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season is expected to have a loose supply. In China, the tight inventory before the new cotton harvest drives up the price, but the strong expectation of a good harvest and weak terminal demand limit the upside. In the long - term, the new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress the price [3] - The global sugar market is in an increasing production cycle, which will suppress the ICE raw sugar price in the long - term. For Zhengzhou sugar, the low domestic industrial inventory supports the price, but the expected increase in imports will limit the upside. The new sugar listing in the new season will increase the downward pressure [5][6] - The pulp price rebounded due to the short - term macro - sentiment boost, but the supply pressure remains in the second half of the year, and the demand improvement is limited. The industry lacks positive drivers [8] Market News and Important Data Cotton - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 14,075 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan/ton (-0.67%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,473 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,609 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton [2] - As of July 17, 2025, the US cumulative net signed export of 2024/25 cotton was 2.775 million tons, reaching 108% of the annual expected export volume, and the cumulative shipment was 2.539 million tons, with a shipment rate of 91.51% [2] Sugar - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,845 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton (-0.53%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,915 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [5] - Brazil exported 3,175,734.56 tons of sugar in the first four weeks of July, with a daily average export of 167,143.92 tons, a 2% increase compared to the daily average in July last year. As of July 20, the third - party warehouse inventory in Guangxi was about 910,000 tons, 190,000 tons more than last year [5] Pulp - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,360 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan/ton (-2.90%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,360 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis Cotton - Internationally, the international cotton market lacks clear direction. The 25/26 global cotton market will have a loose supply. The US cotton balance sheet is hard to improve significantly, and the price will fluctuate with the macro - market sentiment. Domestically, the fast de - stocking of commercial inventory and the expected tight inventory before the new cotton harvest drive up the price, but the good harvest expectation and weak terminal demand limit the upside [3] Sugar - For raw sugar, the high sugar - making ratio in Brazil and the optimistic production estimates in India and Thailand will suppress the ICE raw sugar price in the long - term, but the narrow sugar - alcohol price difference and India's policies bring uncertainties. For Zhengzhou sugar, the low domestic industrial inventory supports the price, but the expected increase in imports limits the upside [5][6] Pulp - The pulp price rebounded due to the short - term macro - sentiment boost. The supply pressure remains in the second half of the year as the port de - stocking is slow and domestic production capacity is increasing. The demand improvement is limited due to the weak overseas consumption and the traditional off - season in China [8] Strategies Cotton - The long - term industry does not have a continuous upward driver, and the upside of the far - month 01 contract is limited [4] Sugar - In the short - term, Zhengzhou sugar will fluctuate within a range, and the long - term trend is bearish [6] Pulp - The short - term price increase is driven by macro - sentiment, and the fundamentals are not improved. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities after the macro - stimulus ends [9]

Group 1 - The ISM report indicates that 11 industries, including apparel, petroleum, plastics, and rubber, are experiencing expansion, while 6 industries are in contraction [1] - The manufacturing import index from ISM saw its largest decline since the end of 2023 as companies' strategies to pre-import goods to avoid tariffs near their conclusion [1] - Manufacturers are facing upward cost pressures despite a decline in energy prices, with material price indicators reaching their highest level since June 2022 [1]