作 者：杨江涛 执业证书编号：F03117249 交易咨询编号：Z0022644 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 白糖市场震荡寻底，供应压力与成本支撑博 弈加剧 --白糖周报2026年01月19日-01月23日 本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 | 策略及风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【现货市场】：现货价格弱势下行，柳州现货价周环比下跌0.94%至5290元/吨。 | | | | 市场情绪偏空，看跌比例高达60%。基差走强至110元/吨，环比大增34.15%，反映 | | | | 期货跌幅大于现货。 | 预计未来1-2周， | | | | 白糖主力合约将 | | | 【期货市场】：主力合约周度收于5180元/吨，周环比下跌1.48%。价格区间震荡， | | | | 持仓量周内增加9.36%至466645手，显示多空分歧加剧。波动率维持高位，价格在 | 继续在5100- | | | 5124-5278元/吨区间内反复。 | 5250元/吨的核 | | | | 心区间内震荡运 | | | 【供应方面】：国内正值压榨高峰期，本榨季增产预期强烈。仓单及有效预报合 | | | ...

Report Title - "Sugar Market in Low-level Fluctuation: Game between Cost Support and Supply Pressure - Sugar Weekly Report from December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026" [1] Report Author - Yang Jiangtao, with practice certificate number F03117249 and trading consultation number Z0022644, contact: 0371 - 58620082 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the main sugar contract will continue to fluctuate in the range of 5,200 - 5,300 yuan per ton, and a directional breakthrough awaits new drivers [3] - The current market is in a low-level fluctuation stage. The core contradiction between long and short lies in the game between supply - side pressure (domestic peak crushing period and a sharp increase in warehouse receipts) and cost support (domestic sugar mill and import cost lines) [3] - The decline in futures positions shows strong market wait - and - see sentiment. Prices are supported near the cost line, but the upside is limited by warehouse receipt pressure and global production increase expectations [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Review - Futures: The closing price of the No. 11 sugar continuous contract decreased by 1.05% to 15.01, and the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar main contract decreased by 0.64% to 5,251 [5] - Spot: Nanning's current price decreased by 0.37% to 5,320 yuan/ton, Liuzhou's by 0.38% to 5,310 yuan/ton, and Kunming's by 0.38% to 5,180 yuan/ton, while Rizhao Lingyunhai remained unchanged at 5,780 yuan/ton [5] - Basis: The basis between Liuzhou sugar and the main contract increased by 31.11% to 59 yuan/ton [5] - Warehouse Receipts: The number of warehouse receipts increased by 2.86% to 5,182, and the effective forecast increased by 163.20% to 3,690. The total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts increased by 37.76% to 8,872 [5] - Market Sentiment: The bullish ratio of Zhengzhou sugar increased by 5 percentage points to 30%, the bearish ratio decreased by 5 percentage points to 50%, and the neutral ratio remained at 20% [5] 1.2 Domestic Futures and Spot - Not detailed in the provided content 1.3 Raw Sugar Futures - Not detailed in the provided content 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 China's Sugar Production and Sales - Not detailed in the provided content 2.2 Production and Sales in Major Domestic Sugar - cane Producing Areas - Not detailed in the provided content 2.3 Production and Sales in Major Domestic Sugar - beet Producing Areas - Not detailed in the provided content 2.4 China's White Sugar Industrial Inventory - Not detailed in the provided content 2.5 China's Sugar Imports and Exports - Not detailed in the provided content 2.6 China's Major Sugar Importing Countries - Not detailed in the provided content 2.7 China's Sugar Import Cost and Profit - For Brazil, the in - quota processing cost decreased by 2.57% to 3,948 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota by 2.61% to 5,034 yuan/ton; the in - quota import profit increased by 5.77% to 1,832 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota by 21.50% to 746 yuan/ton [30] - For Thailand, the in - quota processing cost decreased by 2.47% to 3,993 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota by 2.53% to 5,092 yuan/ton; the in - quota import profit increased by 5.74% to 1,787 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota by 23.08% to 688 yuan/ton [30] 3. International Market Fundamentals 3.1 Brazil's Available Sugar Volume - Not detailed in the provided content 3.2 Brazil's Sugar - cane Crushing Volume - Not detailed in the provided content 3.3 Brazil's Sugar Production - Not detailed in the provided content 3.4 Brazil's Ethanol Production - Not detailed in the provided content 3.5 Brazil's Sugar Imports and Exports - Not detailed in the provided content 3.6 International Raw Sugar Premium and Freight Costs - Not detailed in the provided content

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current sugar market is in a weakly fluctuating phase. The core contradiction between bulls and bears lies in the game between the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere (new sugar supply from Brazil and the upcoming new domestic sugar - crushing season) and cost support (the production cost line of 5400 yuan). The supply remains loose, and the demand is in a slack season. The futures price is repeatedly testing the support level in the range of 5450 - 5500 yuan, lacking short - term breakthrough momentum. It is expected that the main sugar contract will continue to fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton in the next 1 - 2 weeks, and the direction will depend on the progress of the new sugar - crushing season and policy signals [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review (CHAPTER 1) - **1.1 Weekly Review**: The 11 - day sugar continuous contract closed at 14.43 cents/pound, down 3.61% from last week. The main Zhengzhou sugar contract closed at 5483 yuan/ton, up 0.68%. Spot prices in Nanning, Liuzhou, Kunming, and Rizhao Lingyunhai all decreased slightly by about 0.17 - 0.18%. The basis between Liuzhou sugar and the main contract narrowed by 20.09% to 187 yuan/ton. The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts decreased by 7.47% to 8116. The market sentiment shows that the bullish, bearish, and neutral ratios are 20%, 50%, and 30% respectively, remaining unchanged from last week [6]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis (CHAPTER 2) - **2.1 - 2.3 Sugar Production and Sales in China**: No detailed data provided in the given content. - **2.4 China's White Sugar Industrial Inventory**: The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts decreased by 7.47%, indicating a slight relief in physical inventory pressure, but the absolute level remains high [4]. - **2.5 - 2.7 China's Sugar Import and Export**: In September, the import volume was 550,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.8% but a month - on - month decrease. The international raw sugar price dropped 3.61% to 14.43 cents/pound, suppressing import motivation. - **2.9 China's Sugar Import Cost and Profit**: The in - quota import profit increased by 10 - 11% week - on - week, and the out - of - quota profit increased significantly by 35 - 42%. The processing cost decreased by 5.4 - 5.7%. For example, the in - quota processing cost from Brazil decreased from 4040 yuan to 3816 yuan, a 5.54% drop, and the in - quota import profit increased from 1851 yuan to 2047 yuan, a 10.59% increase [31]. 3.3. International Market Fundamentals (CHAPTER 3) - **3.1 - 3.4 Brazil's Sugar Availability, Cane Crushing, Sugar Production, and Ethanol Production**: No detailed data provided in the given content. - **3.5 Brazil's Sugar Import and Export**: No detailed data provided in the given content. - **3.6 International Raw Sugar Premium and Freight Costs**: The premium for Brazilian sugar remained unchanged at - 0.41, and the shipping cost decreased slightly by 0.18% to 38.8. The premium for Thai sugar remained unchanged at 0.89, and the shipping cost remained unchanged at 18 [31].