白糖市场低位震荡，成本支撑与供应压力博 弈 --白糖周报2025-12-29至2026-01-02 作 者：杨江涛 执业证书编号：F03117249 交易咨询编号：Z0022644 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 | 策略及风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【现货市场】：主产区现货价格小幅下跌，柳州现货价周环比下跌0.38%至5310元 | 预计未来1-2周， | | | /吨，市场情绪偏弱，看跌比例达50%。基差走强至59元/吨，环比增长31.11%，反 | 白糖主力合约将 | | | 映期货价格跌幅大于现货。 | 继续在5200- | | | 【期货市场】：主力合约周内窄幅震荡，收盘价从5253元/吨微跌至5251元/吨， | 5300元/吨区间 | | | 周环比下跌0.64%。持仓量持续下降，周环比减少7.41%至415659手，显示资金参 | 内震荡运行，方 | | | 与度降低。 | 向性突破需等待 | | | 【供应方面】：国内处于压榨高峰期，供应压力持续。仓单及有效预报合计达 | 新的驱动。 | | | 8872张，周环 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current sugar market is in a weakly fluctuating phase. The core contradiction between bulls and bears lies in the game between the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere (new sugar supply from Brazil and the upcoming new domestic sugar - crushing season) and cost support (the production cost line of 5400 yuan). The supply remains loose, and the demand is in a slack season. The futures price is repeatedly testing the support level in the range of 5450 - 5500 yuan, lacking short - term breakthrough momentum. It is expected that the main sugar contract will continue to fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton in the next 1 - 2 weeks, and the direction will depend on the progress of the new sugar - crushing season and policy signals [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review (CHAPTER 1) - **1.1 Weekly Review**: The 11 - day sugar continuous contract closed at 14.43 cents/pound, down 3.61% from last week. The main Zhengzhou sugar contract closed at 5483 yuan/ton, up 0.68%. Spot prices in Nanning, Liuzhou, Kunming, and Rizhao Lingyunhai all decreased slightly by about 0.17 - 0.18%. The basis between Liuzhou sugar and the main contract narrowed by 20.09% to 187 yuan/ton. The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts decreased by 7.47% to 8116. The market sentiment shows that the bullish, bearish, and neutral ratios are 20%, 50%, and 30% respectively, remaining unchanged from last week [6]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis (CHAPTER 2) - **2.1 - 2.3 Sugar Production and Sales in China**: No detailed data provided in the given content. - **2.4 China's White Sugar Industrial Inventory**: The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts decreased by 7.47%, indicating a slight relief in physical inventory pressure, but the absolute level remains high [4]. - **2.5 - 2.7 China's Sugar Import and Export**: In September, the import volume was 550,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.8% but a month - on - month decrease. The international raw sugar price dropped 3.61% to 14.43 cents/pound, suppressing import motivation. - **2.9 China's Sugar Import Cost and Profit**: The in - quota import profit increased by 10 - 11% week - on - week, and the out - of - quota profit increased significantly by 35 - 42%. The processing cost decreased by 5.4 - 5.7%. For example, the in - quota processing cost from Brazil decreased from 4040 yuan to 3816 yuan, a 5.54% drop, and the in - quota import profit increased from 1851 yuan to 2047 yuan, a 10.59% increase [31]. 3.3. International Market Fundamentals (CHAPTER 3) - **3.1 - 3.4 Brazil's Sugar Availability, Cane Crushing, Sugar Production, and Ethanol Production**: No detailed data provided in the given content. - **3.5 Brazil's Sugar Import and Export**: No detailed data provided in the given content. - **3.6 International Raw Sugar Premium and Freight Costs**: The premium for Brazilian sugar remained unchanged at - 0.41, and the shipping cost decreased slightly by 0.18% to 38.8. The premium for Thai sugar remained unchanged at 0.89, and the shipping cost remained unchanged at 18 [31].