Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The suspension of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) for four months is expected to impact approximately 67,000 tons of available raw materials, leading to a short-term price boost. However, the actual supply-demand impact is limited, and the long-term trend of oversupply remains unchanged [2][10][18] - The DRC's decision to halt exports is part of a broader strategy to stabilize the market, with a review of the policy planned after three months. The focus will be on potential new policies such as export quotas [2][18] - The cobalt price has reached a near twenty-year low, with significant fluctuations observed over the years due to various market dynamics [9][10] Summary by Sections Export Suspension Impact - The DRC's export suspension is effective from February 22, 2025, and is aimed at controlling oversupply in the international market. The suspension applies to all producers but does not affect production levels, thus copper exports remain unaffected [1][8] - The DRC's annual cobalt production is estimated at 200,000 tons, and the four-month suspension is projected to affect 67,000 tons of cobalt supply, leading to inventory accumulation locally [2][10] Market Dynamics - The DRC accounted for over 70% of global cobalt production, and the country is a critical supplier for China, which imported 629,000 tons of cobalt raw materials in 2024, predominantly from the DRC [10] - The report highlights that since 2022, cobalt raw materials have been in surplus, with an additional inventory of 87,000 tons, suggesting that the short-term supply concerns may be mitigated by existing stocks outside the DRC [14][18] Policy Risks and Metal Concentration - The report emphasizes the need to monitor policy risks associated with metals that have high supply concentration, such as nickel, tin, lithium, and zirconium. These metals are subject to various regulatory changes that could impact their supply and pricing [3][20] - Nickel and tin are highlighted as metals with significant supply risks due to regulatory changes in Indonesia and Myanmar, while lithium and zirconium are concentrated in Australia and South Africa, respectively [3][20]