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供需收紧,这个板块的缺口仍在路上丨每日研选
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-12-18 01:21
Core Insights - The energy metal sector is experiencing a surge in demand driven by the explosive growth in energy storage needs and a tightening supply from major resource countries [1][2] - Key metals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel are at the beginning of a new cycle, with supply management policies from resource-rich countries reshaping the global supply landscape [1][2] Supply Dynamics - Major resource countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo (for cobalt) and Indonesia (for nickel) are actively managing supply through quotas and licensing, aiming to gain control over resource pricing [1][2] - The tightening of supply is a strategic focus for countries amid a backdrop of de-globalization, with the DRC limiting cobalt supply and Indonesia adjusting nickel production quotas [1][2] Demand Trends - Energy storage demand is set to redefine the long-term demand curve for energy metals, with projections indicating that lithium carbonate demand in the energy storage sector could reach approximately 345,000 tons by 2025 and exceed 500,000 tons by 2026, a tenfold increase from 2021 [2][3] - The shift in demand dynamics, coupled with supply constraints, is expected to lead to a pivotal supply-demand balance in the energy metal sector by 2026 [2] Investment Opportunities - Lithium: The sector is poised for a recovery in supply-demand balance by 2026, with companies like Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, and others expected to benefit due to their resource and cost advantages [2][3] - Cobalt/Nickel: Cobalt prices are on an upward trajectory due to supply management, while nickel prices are positioned for recovery as they have reached a low point in the cost curve [2][3] - Rare Earth Materials: Supply constraints from domestic production controls are supporting strong prices, with companies like Ningbo Yunsheng and Jinchuan Group positioned to benefit [2][3]