Core Viewpoint - The metal market is currently in a state of tight supply-demand balance, with macroeconomic factors being the key drivers of metal price trends, including monetary policy, macro expectations, geopolitical dynamics, and supply disruptions [1][12]. Precious Metals - Geopolitical disturbances, particularly the US-Iran conflict, have led to a steady increase in precious metal prices, supported by ongoing central bank gold purchases. As of the end of January, China's gold reserves reached 74.19 million ounces, an increase of 40,000 ounces from the previous month, marking 15 consecutive months of reserve expansion [2][13]. - Specific price movements include SHFE gold rising by 3.29% to 1,147.90 CNY per gram, COMEX gold increasing by 4.24% to 5,296.40 USD per ounce, and London gold rising by 3.27% to 5,278.26 USD per ounce. Silver prices also saw significant increases, with SHFE silver up 16.34% to 23,019 CNY per kilogram [2][13]. - Recommended stocks in the precious metals sector include Zhongjin Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, Shandong Gold, and Zhaojin Mining [3][14]. Base Metals - The copper sector is characterized by a strong supply-demand dynamic, with prices supported by strategic stockpiling and rigid supply. Recent data shows SHFE copper prices increased by 3.53% to 103,920 CNY per ton, while LME copper rose by 2.93% to 13,343.5 USD per ton [4][15]. - In contrast, the aluminum sector faces a "macro positive, inventory pressure" scenario, with SHFE aluminum prices rising by 2.76% to 23,835 CNY per ton, but facing seasonal supply pressures and increasing inventories [5][16]. - Recommended stocks for copper include Jincheng Resources and Luoyang Molybdenum, while for aluminum, recommended stocks include Yun Aluminum and Tianshan Aluminum [4][5][15][16]. Energy Metals - The energy metals sector is experiencing strong demand and declining inventories, with lithium carbonate continuing to deplete. Recommended stocks include Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium [7][19]. - The cobalt sector is facing tight raw material supplies, with companies extending their operations into downstream electric new energy sectors to enhance competitive advantages. Recommended stocks include Huayou Cobalt [7][19]. Rare Earth and Strategic Metals - The rare earth sector has seen price increases post-holiday, with prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide and dysprosium oxide rising significantly. The report highlights the investment value of rare earths as strategic resources [8][20]. - The tungsten sector is benefiting from supply constraints and strategic pricing models, with recommended stocks including Xiamen Tungsten [8][20]. - The uranium sector has seen long-term price increases due to supply rigidity and nuclear power development, with recommended stocks including China Uranium [9][21].

证券研究报告 策略 PPI 上行如何影响 AH 权益？ 需求拉动型通胀：由于内生需求回暖推动价格上行，全产业链利润扩张，风 险偏好提升，行业轮动呈现明显的上游->大金融->消费的顺序，回测上看， 非金属材料、能源金属、乘用车、光伏设备、其他电源设备、玻璃玻纤等板 块主要受益，消费电子、专业服务、一般零售、厨卫电器、通信服务等板块 可能受损。 2026 年 3 月 02 日│中国内地 专题研究 宏观视角，PPI 同比有望于 5-6 月转正 考虑到 PPI 中石油化工相关商品价格、CPI 中运输和与能源相关性较高的分 项或表现强于此前预期。此外，随着 AI 投资相关需求以及外需走强，叠加 国内"反内卷"政策的稳步推进，对 PPI 波动率贡献较为显著的黑色系、有 色系上游商品价格有望延续温和回升态势，中下游（光伏设备、汽车等）价 格亦有望企稳，共同推动 PPI 指标同比降幅收窄。华泰宏观团队预测中国 PPI 或将在今年 5-6 月转正，为 2022 年 10 月来首次；2026 全年平均 PPI 或将从去年的-2.6 回升至+0.1%，而今年年底 PPI 可能达到 1%左右（《PPI 何时转正?》2026 年 3 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.01 避险与通胀，金属迎全面重估 [Table_Industry] 有色金属 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 李鹏飞(分析师) | 010-83939783 | lipengfei2@gtht.com | S0880519080003 | | 魏雨迪(分析师) | 021-38674763 | weiyudi@gtht.com | S0880520010002 | | 刘小华(分析师) | 021-38038434 | liuxiaohua@gtht.com | S0880523120003 | | 王宏玉(分析师) | 021-38038343 | wanghongyu@gtht.com | S0880523060005 | | 梁琳(分析师) | 021-23185845 | lianglin@gtht.com | S0880525070014 | | 李阳(分析师) | 021-23185618 | liyang7@gtht.com | S08805 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a significant increase of 9.77% in the week from February 23 to February 27, outperforming the overall market [14] - The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have escalated, driving up safe-haven demand for precious metals [4][48] - Industrial metals are expected to see price increases as the traditional peak season approaches in March and April, with macro funds returning to the market [29] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.98%, with the non-ferrous metals sector ranking second among 31 sectors, up 9.77% [14] - The small metals sector surged by 17.72%, while energy metals, new materials, precious metals, and industrial metals also saw increases of 9.32%, 9.26%, 8.32%, and 7.75% respectively [14] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of February 27, LME copper closed at $13,296 per ton, up 2.56% week-on-week, while SHFE copper was at ¥103,920 per ton, up 3.53% [33] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $3,142 per ton, up 1.26%, and SHFE aluminum at ¥23,835 per ton, up 2.76% [37] - **Zinc**: LME zinc price was $3,308 per ton, down 2.20%, while SHFE zinc was ¥24,710 per ton, up 2.13% [41] - **Tin**: LME tin surged to $58,050 per ton, up 24.68%, and SHFE tin reached ¥453,240 per ton, up 24.04% [44] Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $5,296.40 per ounce, up 3.24%, and SHFE gold at ¥1,147.90 per gram, up 1.93% [49] - The geopolitical tensions have led to a spike in gold prices, with a peak of $5,500 per ounce observed in the dark market [4][48] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Copper supply is tightening as domestic smelters are expected to undergo maintenance starting in March, while demand is supported by rigid replenishment needs post-Spring Festival [33] - Aluminum supply is affected by overseas production cuts, with a theoretical operating capacity of 44.32 million tons in China [39] - The overall demand for aluminum is expected to rise as downstream production resumes [39] Economic Indicators - The U.S. January PPI year-on-year was recorded at 2.9%, above the expected 2.6%, indicating rising inflation concerns [4][29] - The Chicago PMI for February was reported at 57.7, exceeding expectations, which may influence future monetary policy [29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including companies like Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China Hongqiao [11]. Core Views - The geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, are expected to boost the safe-haven appeal of precious metals like gold and silver [2]. - Despite inventory accumulation in copper, prices remain strong due to ongoing demand and strategic reserve considerations from both China and the US [3]. - The aluminum market is anticipated to experience price fluctuations as the consumption season approaches, supported by macroeconomic factors [4]. - Nickel prices are on an upward trend due to supply constraints and increased inquiries from steel mills [5]. - Tin prices are expected to remain strong amid renewed concerns over supply disruptions from Myanmar [8]. - Lithium prices are rising due to export bans from Zimbabwe, which may tighten supply in the coming months [9]. - Cobalt prices are showing strength as demand recovers with the resumption of production [10]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Geopolitical tensions are driving up demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets, with specific companies recommended for investment [2]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Despite a significant increase in global copper inventories, prices remain resilient due to strategic reserve initiatives and expectations of domestic demand recovery [3]. - **Aluminum**: The market is expected to see price volatility as downstream production resumes post-holiday, with macroeconomic conditions remaining favorable [4]. - **Nickel**: Prices have increased by 4.7% to 141,560 CNY/ton, driven by supply constraints and demand from steel manufacturers [5]. - **Tin**: Prices are expected to experience strong fluctuations due to supply concerns stemming from Myanmar's political situation [8]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Prices have surged, with battery-grade lithium carbonate reaching 174,000 CNY/ton, influenced by export restrictions from Zimbabwe [9]. - **Cobalt**: The price of cobalt has risen by 3.4% to 440,000 CNY/ton, supported by recovering demand as production resumes [10]. Key Companies - Recommended companies for investment include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China Hongqiao, among others, reflecting strong growth potential in the non-ferrous metals sector [11].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that geopolitical disturbances and tariff negotiations are reinforcing the price increase logic for mid-cap blue chips, particularly in cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and agriculture [7][10][34] - The recent geopolitical tensions, including the U.S. tariff disputes and the situation in Iran, have significantly supported precious metal prices, indicating potential price increases for strategic metals [10][12][15] - The report highlights the establishment of a national unified electricity market in China, which is expected to enhance the multi-dimensional value of electricity resources, with a timeline for market implementation set for 2027 [12][15] Group 2 - The real estate market shows stable trends during the Spring Festival, but the cyclical turning point remains to be observed, with expectations of policy easing and improvements in core city markets [13][15][34] - Consumer demand is diversifying, with increased foot traffic during the Spring Festival indicating a shift towards a consumption-driven growth model, supported by technological advancements and high levels of openness [14][15] - The report notes that mid-cap blue chips present a favorable risk profile, with overall market risks being manageable despite some fluctuations in short-term sentiment across various indices [16][34] Group 3 - The report identifies a trend of short-term volatility in hot sectors, with mid-cap blue chips showing resilience, while other sectors like basic chemicals and power grid equipment maintain stable medium-term uncertainties [21][25][31] - The analysis of trading behavior indicates a shift from strong trends to fluctuations in previously high-performing sectors, with only the power equipment sector maintaining its trend [21][25][31] - The report suggests that the overall market sentiment is gradually improving, with mid-cap indices showing slight recoveries in short-term emotions, while uncertainties in the mid-term remain relatively stable [16][25][34]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of precious metals, particularly gold and silver, has shown a strong upward trend driven by "safe-haven" and "stagflation trading" dynamics, with gold prices surpassing $5240 per ounce as of February 24, 2026 [1][7]. Group 1: Safe-Haven Logic - Multiple macroeconomic uncertainties globally are providing fundamental support for the prices of non-ferrous metals, including precious metals [3][9]. - The reversal of U.S. tariff policies, following a Supreme Court ruling against large-scale tariffs from the Trump administration, indicates prolonged trade friction and increased market risk aversion [3][9]. - Geopolitical uncertainties, such as the lack of progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations and potential military conflicts between the U.S. and Iran, are heightening global risk aversion [3][9]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs suggest that rising macro and geopolitical risks are driving investors to diversify into "hard assets," with precious metals and copper showing significant price appreciation potential [3][9]. Group 2: Stagflation Trading - Recent U.S. economic data indicates a slowdown, with the actual GDP growth for 2025 projected at 2.2%, down from 2.8% in 2024, marking the lowest growth since 2021 [3][9]. - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for December 2025 is expected to rise by 3.0%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target, raising concerns about stagflation [3][9]. - Stagflation, characterized by stagnant economic growth and high inflation, typically benefits commodities due to their inflation-hedging properties [3][9]. Group 3: Focus on Non-Ferrous Core Assets - As the market enters a "profit-driven growth phase" in 2026, the strong cyclical nature of non-ferrous metals is expected to manifest, supported by domestic re-inflation narratives [4][11]. - The ongoing issuance of the Silver Hua Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Metals ETF provides a convenient investment tool for investors looking to capitalize on core assets in the non-ferrous sector [4][11]. - The top five sectors in the Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Metals Index as of February 24, 2026, are copper (29.6%), gold (14.9%), aluminum (14.7%), rare earths (8.3%), and lithium (6.5%), reflecting a broad representation of the industry [6][13].

有色金属周报 20260219 美国非农超预期+春节来临，金属价格震荡 glmszqdatemark 贵金属：美国 1 月非农数据超预期，降息预期回落，美伊谈判取得阶段性进展但未来变数 较大，长期来看央行购金+美元信用弱化主线难以根本性扭转，继续坚定看好金价上行。 美国 1 月非农新增就业 13 万个，显著高于市场预期的 7 万个，失业率降至 4.3%，低于预 期的 4.4%，降息预期回落，美国和伊朗就核问题进行接触，双方称谈判取得进展，美伊冲 突释放阶段性缓和信号，压制避险需求，但未来双方局势不确定较大，中长期央行购金+美 元信用弱化仍为主线，看好金银价格中枢上移。白银价格可能依然走弱，这轮周期使得光 伏需求承压，银浆成本占比飙升，未来贱金属化成趋势。重点推荐：紫金黄金国际、中国 黄金国际、西部黄金、山东黄金、招金矿业、中金黄金、赤峰黄金、潼关黄金、万国黄金 集团，建议关注灵宝黄金、大唐黄金和集海资源等，白银标的推荐兴业银锡、盛达资源。 风险提示：需求不及预期、供给超预期释放、海外地缘政治风险。 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价（元） | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） ...

但大盘的整体强势并非人为可以逆转，最终上证指数收涨 0.72%，深证成指涨 1.29%，创业板指涨 1.4%；个股层面，3575 家上涨，1557 家下跌，全市场成交量达 2.45 万亿，较前一交易日有所放大。 来源：沃伦财经 盘面原本走势向好，却突发变脸。 午间收盘时，上证指数触及全天高点约 4167 点，涨幅约 1.2%；不料午后开盘，"YYDS"便蜂拥而出， 一秒钟发生了集体砸盘的现象，其中招商银行、华泰证券、中国人寿，以及中石油、中国移动瞬间跳 水，硬生生的逆转了指数的上行态势。持续的卖盘涌现，在盘面上形成了明显的下行导向，尽管指数在 14 ： 30 分左右企稳，最终收于 4147 点左右，午后跳水幅度达 0.8%左右，此次盘面异动的人为操盘痕 迹昭然若揭，资金控制指数节奏的意图十分明确。 主力资金流向则出现显著变化，午间收盘时主力资金仍净流入约 50 亿元，午后却转为净流出 177 亿 元，其中沪市净流出额达 151 亿元。低估值、绩优、低位的板块，成为主力调控指数的工具，这也让价 值投资、理性投资、长期投资的理念，再次成为对投资者的考验，考验着投资者对投资理念的理解、承 压能力与坚持的定力。 板块 ...

板块方面，小金属、能源金属、钢铁、电子化学品、工业金属等板块涨幅居前，影视院线、通信服 务、黑色家电、银行、游戏等板块跌幅居前。 A股市场板块涨跌幅排行 中国经济网北京2月25日讯 A股三大指数今日全天强势。截至今日收盘，上证综指报4147.23点，涨幅 0.72%，成交额10859.70亿元；深证成指报14475.87点，涨幅1.29%，成交额13765.78亿元；创业板指报 3354.82点，涨幅1.41%，成交额6222.33亿元。 | 序号 | 板块 | 涨跌幅(%)▼ | | 总成交量 (万手) ▼ 总成交额 (亿元) ▼ | 净流入(亿元) ▼ | 上涨家数 | 下跌家数 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 小金属 | 6.16 | 1684.93 | 750.20 | 65.66 | 26 | 1 | | 2 | 脂脂等凿 | 5.37 | 486.82 | 252.28 | 27.79 | 13 | 0 | | 3 | 钢铁 | 4.18 | 7054.41 | 300.41 | 30.98 | 41 | വ | ...