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机构:看好储能、锂电板块景气度抬升
中信建投(601066)证券表示,继续看好储能、锂电板块景气度抬升。当前核心矛盾为储能需求持续性 是否能够带动2026年需求预期在20%的增速上继续上修,关注四季度储能招标、11月底电池企业要货预 期以及2026年电动车以旧换新政策及锂电排产情况。 今年以来国内储能需求超预期,核心驱动在于新能源全面入市推动峰谷电价差拉大,加上容量电价政策 出台,推动储能IRR提升。储能需求驱动力快速由新能源强制配储转向经济性驱动。海外市场,美国以 外市场需求维持高速增长,"大而美"法案核心限制2026年后开工项目,预计装机端需求影响有限。锂电 方面,储能需求超预期带来的产业链量利齐升逻辑持续兑现。 ...
碳酸锂数据日报-20250925
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 02:50
种类 利润估算 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 75297 H 利 # 王 外购锂辉石精矿利润 -2519 78729 F 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 外购锂云母精矿利润 -7944 IT V 《经济参考报》记者近日在青海省海西州大柴旦调查发现,青海柴达木兴华锂盐有限公司(简称"兴华公司")被举报非法掩埋大量工业危险 (简称"危废"),上级部门责令其在中央环保督察前"未督先改",该企业却突击将大量己偷埋的危废挖出并易地填理,涉及数量 态环境造成二次伤害。近期,全国非法倾倒处置固体废物专项整治行动启动,计划用三年时间集中开展严打严查。 日 t 污求方面,新能源车传统旺季将至,储能需求旺盛,碳酸锂社会库存持续去库,支撑期价。供给方面,产量整体增加,是压制期价的主要因 另外,周五新华社发布关于青海盐湖环保问题的文章,涉及的盐湖虽然基本没量,但需要注意,在需求端改善及江西矿山 市场是否会再次借机炒作供给端问题。 贡 免 告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资设 对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符 ...
日度策略参考-20250923
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 07:42
Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings There is no explicit overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, individual product ratings are as follows: - **Bullish**: Gold, Silver, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Soybean Oil, Carbonate Lithium [1] - **Bearish**: Ethanol, Pig [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coke, Coking Coal, Cotton, Raw Sugar, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Log, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Shanghai Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, PE, PVC, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe Line [1] 2. Core Views - **Macro - Financial**: The long - term outlook for stock indices is bullish, but the probability of a unilateral up - trend before the National Day holiday is low. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - **Precious Metals**: A weaker US dollar boosts gold and silver prices, and they may perform strongly in the short term [1]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: While the Fed's interest rate cut has put pressure on copper and aluminum prices, factors such as overseas easing cycles, improved domestic downstream demand, and positive short - term sentiment are expected to stabilize copper prices. The decline in aluminum prices is limited due to the approaching consumption peak season. Alumina's fundamentals are weak, but its price is close to the cost line, so the downside is limited. Zinc prices are under pressure due to increasing social inventories. Nickel and stainless steel prices may oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to supply and policy changes. Tin may present low - buying opportunities during the peak demand season [1]. - **Black Metals**: The valuation of rebar and hot - rolled coil has returned to neutral, with unclear industrial drivers and positive macro - drivers. Iron ore has upward potential in the far - month contracts. Coke and coking coal prices are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances. The supply of steel products is still excessive, and although there is marginal improvement in peak - season demand, prices are under pressure [1]. - **Agricultural Products**: Palm oil may be bought at the lower end of the oscillation range. Soybean oil is expected to reduce inventory in the fourth quarter and is bullish in the long - term. Rapeseed oil is recommended for buying and calendar spread trading. Domestic cotton prices may oscillate widely in the short term and face pressure in the long - term with the new cotton harvest. Raw sugar prices are rebounding but have limited upside due to oversupply. Soybean meal may oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices have a slightly upward - moving center of gravity. PTA basis has declined rapidly, and ethylene glycol is bearish. Short - fiber and styrene may oscillate. PE, PVC, and LPG prices are under pressure, and the container shipping to Europe line may stop falling and stabilize [1]. 3. Summary by Product Category Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Long - term bullish, but low probability of unilateral up - trend before the National Day holiday, recommend controlling positions [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but central bank warns of interest rate risks, suppressing the upside [1] Precious Metals - **Gold**: A weaker US dollar boosts prices, expected to be strong in the short term [1] - **Silver**: Price rebounds driven by market sentiment, expected to be strong in the short term [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Fed's interest rate cut puts pressure, but expected to stabilize due to overseas easing and domestic demand [1] - **Aluminum**: Interest rate cut causes pressure, but limited downside in the consumption peak season [1] - **Alumina**: Fundamentals are weak, but limited downside as price approaches cost line [1] - **Zinc**: Increasing social inventories put pressure on prices [1] - **Nickel**: May oscillate in the short term, focus on supply and macro changes [1] - **Stainless Steel**: May oscillate in the short term, recommend short - term trading and light positions for the holiday [1] - **Tin**: May present low - buying opportunities during the peak demand season [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is bullish due to supply and policy expectations [1] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Valuation returns to neutral, industrial drivers are unclear, macro - drivers are positive [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Supply - demand imbalance, prices are under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Short - term oscillation adjustment, consider buying at the lower end of the range [1] - **Soybean Oil**: Expected to reduce inventory in the fourth quarter, long - term bullish [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Recommended for buying and calendar spread trading due to supply shortage and peak season [1] - **Cotton**: Short - term wide - range oscillation, long - term pressure with new cotton harvest [1] - **Raw Sugar**: Prices are rebounding but have limited upside due to oversupply [1] - **Soybean Meal**: May oscillate in the short term [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Price center of gravity moves slightly upward [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term [1] - **Shanghai Rubber**: Affected by typhoon and inventory changes [1] - **BR Rubber**: Pay attention to capital flow due to supply and spread changes [1] - **PTA**: Basis declines rapidly due to production recovery and other factors [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Bearish due to new production and hedging pressure [1] - **Short Fiber**: Factory production recovers, market delivery willingness weakens [1] - **Styrene**: Supply increases, may oscillate with limited upside and cost support [1] - **PE**: May oscillate weakly as the market returns to fundamentals [1] - **PVC**: Oscillates weakly due to supply pressure and high near - month warehouse receipts [1] - **LPG**: Upward momentum is restricted by production increase and high inventory [1] - **Container Shipping to Europe Line**: May stop falling and stabilize as prices approach cost [1]
大能源行业2025年第36周周报:国补发放加速储能电芯涨价-20250907
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-09-07 12:33
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The acceleration of renewable energy subsidies is expected to significantly improve cash flow and valuation levels for companies in the renewable energy sector, particularly for new energy operators and biomass/waste incineration power generation companies [5][6][16] - The recent issuance of renewable energy subsidies has exceeded expectations, with the total amount received from January to August 2025 far surpassing the entire year of 2024, primarily due to a large subsidy disbursed in August [11][12] - The recovery of accounts receivable is anticipated to enhance cash flow and improve balance sheets, which will positively impact stock valuations in the Hong Kong market [6][16] Summary by Sections Renewable Energy Sector - The total subsidies received by renewable energy companies from January to August 2025 have already reached significant levels, with many companies receiving around 70% of their total subsidies in August alone [5][11] - Companies such as Datang New Energy, China Power, and Longyuan Power are recommended based on their potential for improved cash flow from receivables [6][16] Biomass and Waste Incineration Power Generation - The report highlights that biomass power generation companies are also expected to benefit from the subsidy disbursement, with companies like China Everbright Environment and Shaoneng Co. being recommended for their potential higher dividend capabilities post-receivable recovery [6][16] Energy Storage Sector - The average price of square lithium iron phosphate energy storage cells has seen a slight increase, with domestic demand remaining strong and production capacity utilization rates high [7][18] - The domestic new energy storage project bidding scale reached 56.1GW/213.8GWh from January to July 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 181% [19] - The report suggests that companies like CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and Guoxuan High-Tech are worth watching due to their expected performance elasticity amid rising energy storage cell prices [18][19]
为何我们持续看多储能锂电行情
2025-09-04 14:36
Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The lithium battery industry is expected to enter a new growth cycle by the end of this year or early next year, with potential supply tightness and price recovery during the peak season next year, driven by strong domestic and international demand in the energy storage market [1][3] - The overall supply in the battery cell industry has decreased, with slower growth in photovoltaic energy storage and wind power segments, while the power equipment sector is expanding rapidly [1][4] Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include Sungrow Power Supply, EVE Energy, DeYuan Co., and Haibo Sichuang, which have recently published in-depth reports detailing their fundamentals [1][5] Demand Projections - Lithium battery demand is expected to remain strong in 2026, with the automotive market projected to grow by approximately 16% and the energy storage market exceeding 20% growth [1][6][8] - The European market is anticipated to grow at around 20% due to subsidies and carbon emission policies, while the U.S. market may see a decline offset by new model introductions [1][7] Supply and Pricing Dynamics - The weakest supply-demand situation in the lithium battery industry is expected in Q1 2025, with capacity utilization around 70%, rising to 80% in Q3/Q4, potentially leading to a price surge [1][9] - Lithium hexafluorophosphate is currently the tightest supply chain link, with expected price increases due to energy storage demand [1][12] Performance of Specific Companies - EVE Energy is highlighted for its significant performance elasticity, with conservative estimates of 7.9 billion yuan in overall performance next year, driven by both power battery and energy storage business contributions [1][10] - Haibo Sichuang's shipment volume is expected to reach 70 GWh next year, with a projected profit of 1.6 to 1.8 billion yuan [1][18][19] - Sungrow's inverter business is performing as expected, with stable profitability and growth in line with photovoltaic demand [1][20] Energy Storage Market Insights - The energy storage industry is characterized by strong current realities and weak expectations, with increasing domestic bidding volumes and high realization rates for EPC projects [2][13] - Local and private enterprises are actively investing in independent energy storage projects, supported by capacity pricing or compensation policies [2][14] Future Outlook - The energy storage industry is expected to grow by over 30% in 2026, with the company’s shipment volume anticipated to align with industry growth [1][24] - DeYuan's industrial and household storage business is showing rapid growth, with expected profits close to 3.4 billion yuan this year [1][26][27] Conclusion - The lithium battery and energy storage sectors are poised for significant growth, driven by strong demand, strategic investments, and favorable market conditions, with specific companies showing promising performance and resilience in the face of market fluctuations [1][8][24]
全球储能下半年发展趋势与投资策略
2025-09-04 14:36
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The global energy storage market is experiencing significant growth, with total shipments exceeding 300 GWh from January to July 2025, which is 2.1 times that of the same period last year, surpassing initial forecasts [1][2] - The energy structure is shifting from coal and gas to wind and solar, leading to improved economic viability for energy storage solutions [1][4] - The market is expected to maintain long-term growth, driven by new pricing mechanisms that lower marginal costs of basic electricity [1][4] Market Trends and Projections - In Europe, the commercial energy storage ratio is currently low, with expectations for installed capacity to reach 5 GWh by 2025, doubling year-on-year, and potentially reaching 20 GWh by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 50% [1][7] - The demand for solar plus storage solutions is high in regions with weak grid infrastructure, such as Africa and Latin America, where household storage systems can reduce electricity costs [1][8] - The Asia-Pacific region, particularly countries like Pakistan, Iraq, and Syria, shows strong demand for energy storage due to frequent power outages [1][8] Investment Opportunities - Short-term investment opportunities include companies expanding into international markets (Europe, Latin America, Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East), those focusing on technology development, and firms deepening their presence in niche markets [1][5] - Companies like 德业股份 (Deye) and 艾罗能源 (Aero Energy) are highlighted for their strong market positions and growth potential, particularly in the European market [10][12] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape among energy storage companies is shifting towards product innovation and market expansion, with companies like 德业股份 capturing significant market share in Africa and Latin America [9] - The introduction of new products, such as high-capacity storage systems, is enhancing competitiveness and meeting the growing demand in emerging markets [9][10] Financial Performance and Valuation - Companies in the energy storage sector are showing improved financial performance, with significant revenue growth and profit recovery expected in the second half of 2025 [2][21] - The valuation of leading energy storage companies remains relatively low, attracting investor interest amid high market demand [21][22] Future Outlook - The global energy storage market is projected to exceed 450 GWh in shipments for 2025, with sustained growth driven by both developing and developed countries [24] - The long-term outlook for the energy storage market is optimistic, with expectations for continued demand growth and profitability [24]
储能需求超预期,晶澳科技午后涨停,碳中和ETF泰康(560560)一度涨超3%,权重股深度参与储能行业
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-04 05:45
Group 1 - The carbon-neutral ETF Taikang (560560) experienced a strong performance, with a peak increase of over 3% and a current rise of 1.72%, reflecting a robust market interest in low-carbon investments [1] - The underlying index, the CSI Mainland Low-Carbon Economy Theme Index (000977), also showed significant growth, up 1.02%, with key constituent stocks like Weikang (300919) and JA Solar (002459) rising by 10.04% and 10.00% respectively [1] - Over the past week, the carbon-neutral ETF Taikang (560560) has accumulated a rise of 6.30%, reaching a new high in scale at 70.25 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The demand for energy storage is on the rise globally, with various regions implementing supportive policies, such as China's "Document No. 136," which clarifies capacity pricing and subsidies [2] - In Europe, dynamic pricing mechanisms and increased subsidies are driving significant growth in large-scale and commercial energy storage [2] - The share of independent energy storage projects in China is rapidly increasing, with a focus on lifecycle costs and efficiency rather than just initial pricing, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2] Group 3 - The top ten weighted stocks in the carbon-neutral ETF Taikang (560560) are heavily involved in the energy storage sector, with companies like CATL leading in global energy storage battery shipments [3] - These companies are expanding their operations internationally, contributing to the growth of the domestic energy storage industry and enhancing global market presence [3] - The CSI Mainland Low-Carbon Economy Theme Index tracks 50 core enterprises in the low-carbon economy, covering the entire industry chain from clean energy generation to storage and waste management [3]
碳酸锂价格周涨超万元带动磷酸铁锂跟涨,储能需求成关键推手
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-08-17 03:55
Group 1 - The price of lithium carbonate has surged significantly, with the average spot price for battery-grade lithium carbonate rising from 78,000 yuan/ton to 82,000 yuan/ton, marking a weekly increase of 11,800 yuan/ton, the largest weekly increase this year [1][3] - The prices of lithium iron phosphate have also increased, with the average price for power-type lithium iron phosphate rising from 33,250 yuan/ton to 35,350 yuan/ton, and the average price for energy storage-type lithium iron phosphate increasing from 30,900 yuan/ton to 32,900 yuan/ton, resulting in weekly increases of 2,100 yuan/ton and 2,000 yuan/ton respectively [1][3] - The surge in lithium carbonate prices is primarily driven by the suspension of mining operations in Jiangxi due to expired mining licenses, which is expected to reduce the monthly supply of lithium carbonate equivalent by 8,300 tons, accounting for 8.5% of the national total production [3] Group 2 - Despite the traditional off-season for the electric vehicle market, demand in the energy storage sector continues to grow, supporting the price increase of lithium iron phosphate [3] - The installed capacity of new energy storage is expected to grow by 160% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, leading to a surge in demand for high-density lithium iron phosphate materials, with some companies extending their order schedules into the first quarter of 2026 [3] - Analysts indicate that the tight supply of lithium carbonate is unlikely to ease in the short term, and with the peak demand season for energy storage approaching, prices for lithium carbonate and lithium iron phosphate are expected to remain high [3]
碳酸锂05月报:成本支撑下移,打开锂价下行空间-20250430
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 23:30
大宗商品研究所 有色金属研发报告 碳酸锂 05 月报 2025 年 4 月 30 日 成本支撑下移 打开锂价下行空间 第一部分 回顾与展望 碳酸锂价格春节前出现 8.1 万高点后已经下跌了 15%,最低跌破 6.8 万,而每次新低后 的反弹高度越来越低。4 月清明节后跳空低开,高点 7.2 万附近,此后震荡走弱,最低 67500 元/吨。 需求端,中美互加关税导致美国本土新能源汽车消费市场及供应链受到冲击,传导至 国内外销占比高的三元正极厂订单可能受损,同时国内储能 531 抢装对碳酸锂的采购已于 3 月结束,出口至美国又面临提前而来的天量关税,储能订单出现转弱迹象。正极厂 4 月排 产环比微幅增长,价格大跌时也有一定采购,但表现仍然较为克制,并未出现低价囤货的 行为。 供应端,4 月产量先增后减,部分冶炼厂安排年度检修,部分买不到(低价)矿或亏 损减产。冶炼厂减产倒逼矿价下跌,澳矿 CIF 价格已经跌破 800 美元/吨,市场预期继续下 行至 750 美元/吨。今年以来智利出口至中国的碳酸锂部分未进行清关,积压在保税库,因 此中国进口量和智利出口有一定差距。4 月国内供应虽然因减产因素可能低于此前排产计 划 ...