市场分析 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-03-03 关注储能需求端边际变化，碳酸锂盘面高位宽度震荡 2026-03-02，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于178680元/吨，收于172020元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-0.96%。当 日成交量为227061手，持仓量为378336手，前一交易日持仓量381552手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为1440元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单38196手，较上个交易日变化-265手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价169000-176000元/吨，较前一交易日变化500元/吨，工业级碳酸锂 报价166000-172000元/吨，较前一交易日变化500元/吨。6%锂精矿价格2385美元/吨，较前一日变化0美元/吨。海关 总署数据显示，2025年12月我国碳酸锂进口总量约为2.4万吨，环比+8.77%，同比-14.43%。2025年12月锂辉石进口 量约76.6万吨，环比+5%，同比+19%。2025年12月从澳大利亚进口量31万吨，同比-5%，环比-27%，占比40%；12 月从津巴布韦进口量13.2万吨，同比+39%，环比+20%，占比 ...

综合来看，短期铅价将呈现"震荡回升、幅度有限"的走势，大概率维持在16600-16900元/吨区间震荡， 核心依托成本支撑与复工需求预期，同时受宏观面与外围市场波动扰动。对于春节后首个交易日的投资 者，建议秉持谨慎布局原则：短期不宜盲目追高，可重点关注复工进度与库存去化数据，待需求端明确 回暖信号出现后再逐步加仓；中长期可关注电池回收产业复苏与储能需求落地节奏，把握波段布局机 会。 当前铅价回升之路虽充满分歧，但随着宏观面稳健支撑、复工需求释放，中长期向好格局明确。对于投 资者而言，需摒弃短期投机心态，聚焦核心驱动因素，规避库存高企与需求不及预期的风险，才能在分 歧中把握合理布局机会。 2026年2月24日，春节后金属市场首个关键交易日，铅价走势成为市场焦点。长江有色金属网数据显 示，当日长江现货市场1#铅报价区间16700-16800元/吨，均价16750元/吨，较前一交易日微跌25元/吨， 看似小幅回调，实则暗藏回升动能。叠加当日宏观面多重热点、美元美股波动，以及铅蓄电池企业复工 重启、电池回收与储能需求的不确定性，市场分歧加剧：铅价稳步回升能否持续？复工节奏与新兴需求 谁能主导短期走势？春节后首个交易日 ...

宏观与板块氛围烘托：节后首个交易日，商品市场普遍回暖。同时，外部贸易政策不确定性及地缘局 势，共同提升了部分工业金属的避险与通胀对冲属性，市场整体风险偏好有所回升。 市场分歧与潜在风险 主要受以下因素共振驱动： 投行唱多提振情绪：春节假期前后，国际知名投行接连发布报告，旗帜鲜明看多锂市场，判断全球锂行 业已步入新的上升周期，并大幅上调年内碳酸锂价格预测。该乐观预期为市场注入强心剂。 供给侧"隐形减产"预期：市场分析指出，当前供给端存在显著的"有效产能"与"名义产能"背离。国内主 产区因环保审查等因素，部分产能处于合规性停产状态，大量被计入供给增量的产能无法实际产出；同 时全球新项目从建成到达产存在明显的爬坡延迟。这强化了短期供应偏紧的市场预期。 储能需求充当"吞锂巨兽"：去年全球储能系统出货量实现跨越式增长，该领域已成为锂需求增量的主要 贡献者，有效对冲了传统动力电池增速放缓的影响，成为支撑锂需求的边际核心力量。 今日早盘，广期所碳酸锂主力合约高开高走，表现强势。截至9:10，合约开盘报160,000元/吨，最高触 及161,500元/吨，最低下探157,260元/吨，现涨幅达7.82%。成交量44,555手 ...

搅拌、涂布、辊压、模切……数十道工序有序推进，10余条产线火力全开。正月初六，在厦门火炬高新区海辰储能的生产车间里，2000多名一 线工人和工程师坚守岗位，全力赶订单、保生产。 "春节期间企业生产线保持满负荷运行，为一季度订单集中交付打下基础。"海辰储能生产运营经理章欢介绍，今年春节，海辰储能重点保障海 内外储能项目的电芯及系统交付需求，特别是北美市场储能系统订单。目前，企业订单已排至2026年底，今年一季度订单规模同比实现大幅提 升。 生产火热的背后，是企业抢抓机遇、科学布局的精准落子。 章欢告诉记者，随着新能源装机规模扩大和储能需求加速释放，市场需求结构也发生变化，订单呈现出规模化、集中交付的新特征。过去一 年，海辰储能在生产端持续推进工艺优化和制造创新，厦门基地单线产能提升效率达17.1%，还入选了2025年度卓越级智能工厂项目名单。产 品方面，企业587Ah和1175Ah的大容量电芯已实现规模化量产，并推出面向8小时场景的长时储能解决方案。此外，公司海外业务保持快速增 长，欧洲等重点市场实现显著提升，储能电池出货量已位居全球前二。 为确保春节期间生产连续稳定运行，海辰储能为留守员工准备了春节留岗奖金、 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - After the previous panic selling, market sentiment has recovered, and bullish confidence has gradually returned, which is an important reason for the recent rebound of lithium carbonate. Although the demand is in the off - season before the Spring Festival, the expected significant rebound in lithium - battery production in March supports the price increase. Overall, the support of energy - storage demand, the short - term supply tightness, and the strong performance of the non - ferrous metals sector will keep the current price at a high level [1] Market Analysis - On February 12, 2026, the main lithium carbonate contract 2605 opened at 150,000 yuan/ton and closed at 149,420 yuan/ton, with a 3.66% change in the closing price compared to the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 304,798 lots, and the open interest was 353,975 lots (the previous trading day's open interest was 356,531 lots). The current basis is - 5,480 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 37,282 lots, a change of 1,755 lots from the previous trading day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 138,000 - 147,000 yuan/ton, a change of 4,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 135,000 - 143,000 yuan/ton, also a change of 4,500 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 2,005 US dollars/ton, a change of 25 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1] - The spot inventory is 102,932 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,531 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory is 16,920 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,436 tons; the downstream inventory is 44,492 tons, a month - on - month increase of 835 tons; other inventories are 41,520 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,930 tons. In February, the demand market is in the traditional off - season. Although the medium - and long - term expectations for energy - storage demand remain optimistic, and there is "rush - to - export" support due to the adjustment of export tax - rebate policies in the first quarter, the short - term procurement demand has slowed down [2] Strategy - Currently, the price of lithium carbonate fluctuates greatly. With the Spring Festival approaching, attention should be paid to the position - holding risk. Short - term range trading is the main strategy. However, the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are still good. If the price correction is too large, one can consider going long at low prices after the Spring Festival [3] - Unilateral: Short - term range trading. If the correction is large, consider going long at low prices [3] - Inter - period: None [4] - Cross - variety: None [4] - Spot - futures: None [4] - Options: None [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - After the previous panic - driven decline, market sentiment has recovered, and bullish confidence has gradually returned, leading to the rebound of lithium carbonate. Although the demand is in the off - season before the Spring Festival, the expected significant increase in lithium battery production in March supports the price increase. The support of energy storage demand, the short - term tight supply situation, and the strong performance of the non - ferrous sector will keep the current price at a high level [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 11, 2026, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 138,000 yuan/ton and closed at 150,260 yuan/ton, with a 9.18% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 351,877 lots, and the open interest was 356,531 lots (the previous day's open interest was 345,989 lots). The current basis is - 5,120 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures), and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 35,527 lots, a change of - 10 lots from the previous trading day [1] Spot Market - According to SMM data, the battery - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 134,000 - 142,000 yuan/ton, a change of 2,000 yuan/ton from the previous day; the industrial - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 131,000 - 138,000 yuan/ton, also a 2,000 - yuan/ton change. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,980 US dollars/ton, a 15 - dollar/ton change from the previous day. The total spot inventory is 105,463 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,019 tons. Among them, smelter inventory is 18,356 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 647 tons; downstream inventory is 43,657 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,058 tons; other inventory is 43,450 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,430 tons [2] Strategy - Given the large price fluctuations of lithium carbonate and the approaching Spring Festival, it is necessary to pay attention to position risks. Short - term trading should focus on range operations. If the price correction is too large, consider going long at low levels after the festival. For single - side trading, conduct short - term range operations and consider going long at low levels if the correction is significant. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current price of lithium carbonate fluctuates greatly. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, attention should be paid to position risks, and short - term trading should be mainly range - based. However, the fundamentals of lithium carbonate remain good. If the callback is too large, consider going long at low prices after the holiday [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Market Analysis - On February 9, 2026, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 139,500 yuan/ton and closed at 137,000 yuan/ton, with a 3.55% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 305,321 lots, and the open interest was 344,071 lots (the previous day's open interest was 328,575 lots). The current basis was - 3,000 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 34,597 lots, a change of 820 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 131,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton, a change of 1,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 128,000 - 136,000 yuan/ton, also a change of 1,000 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,965 US dollars/ton, a change of 15 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1]. - The downstream material factories' inventory preparation for February is almost over. Most enterprises are turning to cautious waiting and watching, with a low psychological purchase price. Only a few manufacturers still maintain just - in - time purchases. Overall, the market inquiry and trading situation are a bit light [1]. Inventory - According to SMM statistics, the spot inventory was 105,463 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,019 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory was 18,356 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 647 tons; the downstream inventory was 43,657 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,058 tons; other inventories were 43,450 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,430 tons [2]. - The demand market in February is in the traditional off - season. Although the medium - and long - term expectations for energy - storage demand remain optimistic, and there is "rush - export" support due to the adjustment of export tax - refund policies in the first quarter, the short - term purchase demand has slowed down [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range trading. If the callback is large, consider going long at low prices [3]. - Inter - period: None [4] - Inter - variety: None [4] - Spot - futures: None [4] - Options: None [4]

Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lithium battery industry is gradually stabilizing at the bottom, with a recovery in profitability driven by the transition from power batteries to energy storage batteries, which are becoming the new growth engine for the industry[1] - Global cumulative energy storage installation capacity surged from 15.1 GW in 2020 to 165.4 GW in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 91.4%, with China's market growing from 3.3 GW to 78.3 GW, a CAGR of 130.4%[21] Market Trends and Opportunities - The energy storage sector is entering a high-quality development phase, with domestic demand driven by clearer business models and external demand fueled by diverse application scenarios[2] - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to rise, indicating a potential for upstream lithium mining stocks to rebound, while the midstream sectors like lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolytes remain crucial[4] Technological Advancements - The solid-state battery technology is anticipated to bring significant changes by 2025, prompting a new round of capital expenditure focused on equipment capable of integrating solid-state battery production[4] - The share of lithium-ion batteries in energy storage installations is projected to reach 55.15% by the end of 2024, with a notable increase in shipments, which are expected to total 369.8 GWh, a year-on-year growth of 64.9%[28] Regional Insights - In Europe, the market is witnessing a shift from household storage to large-scale storage, with large storage installations expected to grow by 60% in power capacity and 280% in capacity in 2024[61] - The U.S. energy storage market is experiencing a resurgence, with new installations reaching 11.8 GW and 31.2 GWh in 2024, marking year-on-year increases of 35.1% and 20% respectively[62] Risk Factors - The lithium battery industry faces risks related to supply-demand mismatches and geopolitical issues affecting overseas trade[5]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate price has experienced significant fluctuations, dropping from nearly 180,000 CNY/ton to below 150,000 CNY/ton, with market volatility attributed to futures market dynamics and regulatory measures [1][2]. Price Trends - Lithium carbonate prices peaked at 182,200 CNY/ton on January 26, 2026, before declining to below 150,000 CNY/ton by February 4, marking an 18% decrease [1]. - The main futures contract for lithium carbonate also fell from 189,400 CNY/ton to 147,200 CNY/ton during the same period, with multiple trading halts observed [1]. Market Influences - The recent price drop is largely influenced by macroeconomic factors and regulatory policies, with a notable correlation between precious and base metals affecting the lithium carbonate market [2]. - Regulatory measures from the Guangxi Futures Exchange aimed at curbing speculative trading have contributed to the decline in prices [2][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite short-term price pressures, the medium to long-term outlook remains positive due to ongoing destocking trends and anticipated post-holiday replenishment in demand [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that the lithium carbonate market will continue to experience destocking through the first half of 2026, with potential price recovery following the Chinese New Year [3]. Production and Cost Considerations - The reasonable price for lithium carbonate is primarily determined by production costs, which include lithium ore prices, processing fees, and operational costs [4]. - For producers with their own mines, profit margins remain stable even amid price fluctuations, as long-term contracts often mitigate the impact of market volatility [4][5]. Industry Sentiment - There is a divergence of opinions among industry participants regarding the future price trajectory of lithium carbonate, with some expecting a rebound due to strong underlying demand [3][4]. - The current regulatory environment and high prices have led to increased production expectations from overseas mines, potentially dampening upward price momentum [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity futures market closed with a mixed performance, showing a structural differentiation. The lithium carbonate futures limit - up became the market focus, and the precious metals sector was strong, while the coking coal and coke futures led the decline, and most energy - chemical products fell. The overall market fluctuations revolved around the reconstruction of the supply - demand of sub - industries and macro - risk sentiment [14]. - The US economy maintained a "light to moderate" expansion, inflation continued to cool, consumption showed a "K - shaped" characteristic, industrial production rebounded unexpectedly, and the Fed maintained a cautious wait - and - see attitude, with the interest - rate cut expectation postponed to June [14]. - In China, policies focused on new fields, exports showed unexpected resilience, corporate loans and bond financing in social financing data were stronger than seasonal, but real estate and infrastructure were weak due to seasonality, and there were clear signs of inflation improvement [14]. - In the short term, there is a risk of continued adjustment of risk assets; in the medium term, long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), gold, and silver are recommended [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 20, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4708.6, with a daily decline of 0.5%, a weekly decline of 0.31%, and a monthly increase of 2.37%. The Shanghai 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures also had different price changes and fluctuations [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all showed certain price increases and fluctuations on January 20, 2026 [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 99.0423, with a daily decline of 0.33%, and the US dollar mid - price decreased by 63 pips [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate increased by 3.42 bp, and the 10 - year Chinese government bond yield decreased by 0.31 bp [2]. 3.2 Popular Industry Fluctuations - On January 20, 2026, different industries had different price changes and fluctuations. For example, the non - ferrous metals industry had a monthly increase of 12.65%, while the defense and military industry had a daily decline of 3.21% [5]. 3.3 Overseas Commodity Fluctuations - On January 16, 2026, overseas commodities such as energy, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products had different price changes and fluctuations. For example, NYMEX natural gas had a monthly decline of 16.22%, and COMEX silver had a monthly increase of 26.72% [8]. 3.4 Domestic Commodity Fluctuations - Various domestic commodities such as crude oil, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, energy - chemical products, and agricultural products had different price changes and fluctuations on January 20, 2026. For example, lithium carbonate had a daily increase of 8.93% and a monthly increase of 31.86% [11]. 3.5 Macro - Essentials - **Today's Market**: The domestic commodity futures market closed with a mixed performance. The rise of lithium carbonate was driven by the rise of energy - storage demand and the reversal of the supply - demand pattern, and precious metals were supported by geopolitical risks [14]. - **Overseas Macro**: The US economy expanded moderately, inflation cooled, consumption was "K - shaped", industrial production rebounded, and the Fed postponed the interest - rate cut expectation to June [14]. - **Domestic Macro**: Chinese policies focused on new fields, exports were resilient, social financing data showed strong corporate financing, but real estate and infrastructure were weak, and there were clear signs of inflation improvement [14]. - **Asset Views**: The Fed is not expected to cut interest rates in January, and the first interest - rate cut is postponed to June. Short - term risk assets may continue to adjust, while mid - term long positions in some assets are recommended [14]. 3.6 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, waiting for incremental funds; stock index options and treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile [15]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as the US fundamentals, Fed policies, and geopolitical conflicts [15]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping to Europe is expected to be volatile, focusing on factors such as shipping company's resumption of flights and cargo volume [15]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as production, inventory, and cost [15]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most basic metals are expected to be volatile, and some are expected to rise in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policies [15]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, and some are expected to decline in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and policies [18]. - **Agriculture**: Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, and some are expected to rise or decline in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as supply - demand, weather, and policies [18].