中泰证券认为储能需求逻辑已重塑，国内大储从政策驱动转向市场盈利驱动，独立储能、工商储潜力凸 显，"十五五"期间复合增速达30%；海外方面，美国AI产业催生大量储能需求，欧洲、澳洲等市场需求 旺盛，新兴市场则因用电短缺，户储、工商储刚性需求强劲。 光伏ETF华夏（515370）跟踪中证光伏产业指数，涉及光伏产业链上、中、下游企业，包括硅片、多晶 硅、电池片、电缆、光伏玻璃、电池组件、逆变器、光伏支架和光伏电站等，能够更好的反映光伏产业 整体表现。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 2025年12月16日，光伏ETF华夏（515370）回调2.97%。资金面上，昨日光伏ETF华夏（515370）资金 大幅流入超1.2亿元，近10日净流入超4.2亿元。 消息面，今年，我国能源投资增势强劲，向绿向新。新能源实现更高质量跃升式发展。目前，我国第一 批风电光伏基地基本建成投产，第二批、第三批已建成投产约5000万千瓦，预计全年风电光伏新增装机 约3.7亿千瓦，利用率保持在94%以上，风电光伏发电量约占全社会用电量的22%。到"十五五"末，也就 是到2030年，我国新能源发电装机比重将超过50%，新能源发电装机成为电力装机主体。 ...

ab 11 December 2025 Global Research China Energy Storage Industry Upstream material cost rise to have mild impact on BESS demand Battery price increased on rising raw material costs The recent rise in battery material costs has raised market concerns about the potential impact on BESS demand and margins for BESS manufacturers. Suzhou Deegares, a battery maker, announced on 9 Dec that it would lift battery prices by 15% to pass through higher material costs. However, we expect rising battery material costs t ...

铝产业链年报 2025 年 12 月 15 日 向阳而行 不忘风雨 核心观点及策略 一、 投资咨询业务资格 沪 证 监 许 可 【2015】 84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 | 图表 | 1 氧化铝期货价格 7 | | --- | --- | | 图表 | 2 氧化铝现货升贴水 7 | | 图表 | 3 氧化铝月差 7 | | 图表 | 4 国内外电解铝期货价格 7 | | 图表 | 5 沪伦铝比 8 | | 图表 | 6 沪铝月差 8 | | 图表 | 升贴水 7 LME 8 | | 图表 | 8 国内铝现货升贴水 8 | | 图表 | 9 铸造铝期货价格 8 | | 图表 | 10 铸造铝现货价格 8 | | 图表 | 11 ...

智利国家铜业公司(Codelco)和力拓集团(Rio Tinto Group)的智利锂矿合资项目正按计划推进。力拓集团 首席执行官兼锂业负责人与智利国家铜业公司董事长会面，讨论了Maricunga锂项目和智利铜矿勘探项 目。 智通财经APP获悉，智利国家铜业公司(Codelco)董事长表示，尽管总部位于伦敦的矿业公司力拓集团 (Rio Tinto Group)发出将放缓其进军电池金属步伐的信号，但是Codelco与力拓集团在智利的锂合资企业 仍按计划常态推进。 力拓一边在塞尔维亚项目上踩刹车且强调对锂资源采取"分阶段策略"，一边继续和Codelco推进位于智 利的Maricunga大型锂矿项目，并讨论具体的提锂工艺，这些大型矿企大矿并不是"不玩锂矿"的悲观态 度，而是不再为任何一块锂资源无脑开支。力拓最新的这种以"期权"的方式布局锂矿 ——等到下一轮 锂需求与价格共振时，可以迅速放量。而就当前全球储能需求大规模兴起之势来看，下一个锂周期可能 不久后将到来。 Codelco 与力拓在智利锂项目上的携手推进，不会立刻扭转锂价走势，但却清晰传递出一个信号：在储 能与电动汽车长期强劲需求拉动下，全球矿业巨头并未退出锂 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of lithium carbonate is that it presents a pattern of increasing supply, high demand, and inventory depletion. The market is hot, and the supply - demand tension is marginally alleviated but there is still a gap. It is expected that the price will fluctuate strongly in December [2]. - The risk points are the resumption of mica ore production and the slowdown of demand growth [3]. Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Market Review (1) November Futures Market Trend of Lithium Carbonate - In November 2025, the futures price of lithium carbonate showed a significant upward trend. Affected by factors such as increased energy - storage demand, the price was supported at 80,000 yuan and strengthened. After the speech of the chairman of Ganfeng Lithium, the futures price rose by the daily limit on November 17th. However, due to exchange policy regulation and Goldman Sachs' bearish report, the price dropped sharply on November 21st. Then, after the speech of the chairman of Tianqi Lithium, the LC2605 price rose by 5% [6][7][8]. - The monthly cumulative trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 26.99 million lots, and the open interest was 1.07 million lots, setting a record high since listing. The monthly increase of the main contract LC2605 in November reached 19.42% [9]. (2) November Spot and Basis of Lithium Carbonate - In November, the spot price of lithium carbonate continued to rise. The average price of electric - grade lithium carbonate was 93,700 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 91,300 yuan/ton, with a 17% increase from the previous month. The price of lithium hydroxide increased by 8 - 9%, and the price difference between lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide widened, indicating strong demand for lithium carbonate [12]. - The basis once expanded to - 10,000 yuan/ton and then fell back to - 2,500 yuan/ton at the end of November. The spot price closely followed the futures price, and the price difference reached a new high since February last year [18]. (3) Price Trends of the Upstream and Downstream of the Lithium Carbonate Industry Chain - In November, the prices of the upstream and downstream of lithium carbonate generally increased. The price of Australian SC6 spodumene increased by 24% to 1,217 US dollars/ton. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 58%, driving the electrolyte price up by 36%. The monthly increase of lithium iron phosphate was nearly 10%, and that of ternary materials was 3 - 5% [20]. II. Upstream Analysis of Lithium Carbonate (1) Lithium Ore Price Trend and Lithium Carbonate Production Profit - In November, the price of Australian SC6 spodumene concentrate increased from 985 US dollars/ton to 1,217.5 US dollars/ton, with a 23.6% increase. The prices of spodumene concentrates from Brazil and Africa also rose significantly. The price of lithium mica concentrate increased to 2,600 yuan/ton, with a 19.3% monthly increase [21]. - The production profit of purchasing spodumene fell back to near the break - even point, and the loss of purchasing mica decreased as the lithium price rose [25]. (2) Lithium Ore Supply, Demand, and Inventory - In November, as the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise, the supply of lithium ore gradually increased. Although the available inventory in warehouses was low, the inventory of port traders continued to rise. The inventory of lithium salt plants recovered compared with before. The supply of mica ore was still tight due to production suspension in Jiangxi. The current upstream resource supply mainly came from salt lakes and spodumene [28]. - The Jiaxiaowo lithium mine in Jiangxi was still shut down, and it was expected to resume production at the end of December or early next year at the earliest [33]. III. Supply Analysis of Lithium Carbonate (1) Lithium Carbonate Production - In November, the production of lithium carbonate was about 95,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons. The production of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 70,000 tons, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 25,000 tons. The main production source was spodumene, with an output of nearly 58,000 tons [34][38]. - The overall capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate was 56%. The capacity utilization rates of spodumene and salt - lake sources were higher than the average, while that of lithium mica was low [43]. (2) Lithium Carbonate Import and Export - In October, the import of lithium carbonate was 23,900 tons, and the export was 246 tons, with a net import of 23,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of nearly 4,200 tons. Chile and Argentina were the main import sources, accounting for over 90% of the total import. The average import price in October was 8,931 US dollars/ton, a 300 - US - dollar increase from the previous month [46][51]. (3) Production and Apparent Demand of Lithium Hydroxide - In November, the production of lithium hydroxide was nearly 30,000 tons, almost the same as last year and a month - on - month increase of 650 tons. In October, the net export of lithium hydroxide was 1,597 tons. Assuming the same net - export situation in November, the apparent demand was 28,000 tons, at a relatively high historical level [52]. IV. Downstream Demand Analysis of Lithium Carbonate (1) Sales of New - Energy Vehicles - In October, the sales of new - energy vehicles were 1.72 million, a 20% year - on - year increase. From January to October, the cumulative sales were 12.91 million, a 33% year - on - year increase. From January to October, the cumulative export was 1.93 million, an 86% year - on - year increase, accounting for 15% of the total sales. Pure - electric vehicles accounted for 65%, and the penetration rate of new - energy vehicle sales reached 51.6%, exceeding that of traditional vehicles [54][59]. (2) Production of Lithium Batteries and Cells - In November, the production of lithium batteries by sample enterprises was nearly 200 GWh, of which lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 77% with a production of 154 GWh. The production of power cells in November was 128 GWh, a 35% increase from the end of last year, and that of energy - storage cells was 58 GWh, a 53% increase. The inventory - to - sales ratio of cells continued to decline [60][63]. (3) Production of Cathode Materials and Electrolytes - Since the middle of this year, the demand for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials has "exploded". In November, the production was 413,000 tons, a 44% year - on - year increase. From January to November, the production of ternary materials was 738,000 tons, a 17% increase from the same period last year. The operating rates of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials continued to rise [67][68]. - In November, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 58%, and the price of electrolyte increased by 36%. In October, the production of electrolyte was 210,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons, and the production of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 25,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons [72]. V. Lithium Carbonate Inventory - As of the end of November, the sample social inventory of lithium carbonate was 116,000 tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons from the peak in late July. The inventory days decreased from the maximum of 45 days to 26 days. The refinery inventory decreased to 24,000 tons, and the inventory days were 5.5 days, a new low in more than a year [73]. - From July to November is the destocking season, and then the inventory will rise until June. Due to strong demand, lithium carbonate may continue to be destocked in December, but the destocking speed will slow down. The exchange inventory has been lower than the same - period level this year, especially from October to November when it decreased significantly [76][80]. VI. Summary and Future Forecast of Lithium Carbonate - In November, lithium carbonate and related industries showed a significant upward trend. In December, the supply - demand contradiction still exists, but it will be marginally alleviated. There is still a supply - demand gap [83][84]. - In terms of supply, the production of lithium carbonate in November was about 95,300 tons, a 5.9% month - on - month increase. It is expected that after mid - December, the production in Jiangxi's core mining areas will gradually resume, with a 3% increase in December. The import volume in December is expected to reach about 26,000 tons. The production of lithium hydroxide is expected to remain at about 30,000 tons. The total production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide will reach a new high in December, with a total supply of 150,000 tons in terms of LCE [84]. - In terms of demand, the demand is mainly from the explosive growth of energy - storage demand. In December, the demand is expected to decline slightly, but the new capacity of Hubei Bangpu Yichang Base will support the overall supply [85]. - In terms of inventory, the inventory is lower than the historical average. In December, lithium carbonate may continue to be destocked, but at a slower pace. Overall, lithium carbonate will maintain a fluctuating and strong trend in the future [87].

Core Insights - The recent surge in prices of various chemical and industrial products, particularly lithium battery electrolyte materials, has raised significant market interest and questions regarding the drivers of this price increase, its sustainability, and the potential for performance recovery among upstream and downstream companies in the industry [1] Price Trends in Electrolyte Industry - Prices for key lithium battery electrolyte components have risen sharply, with carbonates and lithium hexafluorophosphate seeing significant increases. For instance, carbonates like VC rose by 3000 CNY/ton to an average of 168,000 CNY/ton, while lithium hexafluorophosphate reached 163,000 CNY/ton after a 2500 CNY/ton increase [2] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.03%, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate rising by 750 CNY/ton. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has more than doubled since July 18, when it was 49,800 CNY/ton [2] Market Demand and Growth - The demand for lithium battery materials is being driven by robust growth in both the power battery and energy storage sectors, with companies like Huasheng Lithium Battery noting a significant increase in demand for related materials [3] - Analysts predict that the energy storage market will see explosive growth, with domestic energy storage orders expected to exceed 250 GWh by mid-2025, marking an 86% year-on-year increase [3] Company Outlook and Production Plans - Companies such as New Zobang and Tianqi Materials are optimistic about future price trends, with New Zobang expecting prices to remain within a range that supports reasonable profit margins and ongoing R&D investments [4] - Tianqi Materials indicated that the price increase for lithium hexafluorophosphate is expected to continue into November and December, with production levels maintained at 3,800 tons per month [5] - Several companies are ramping up production capacity, with Shenzhen New Star planning to complete a 7,200-ton capacity for lithium hexafluorophosphate by mid-2024, while Jinshi Resources is investing in a project to produce 15,000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate [5][6] Capacity Expansion Plans - Fuxiang Pharmaceutical plans to increase its VC product capacity to 10,000 tons per year by Q2 2026, with potential further expansions based on market demand [6] - New Zobang's subsidiary, Hankan Electronic Materials, currently has a VC capacity of 10,000 tons and is building an additional 5,000 tons, expected to be operational by the second half of 2026 [7]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs acknowledges a significant shift in the lithium market due to the explosive growth in energy storage system (ESS) demand, leading to a tighter short-term supply-demand balance, while the medium-term oversupply scenario remains unchanged [1][2]. Group 1: Short-term Market Dynamics - The price of lithium carbonate in China surged from $9,200 per ton in mid-September to over $11,000 per ton, prompting Goldman Sachs to revise its 2026 price forecast and delay the anticipated price correction to the second half of 2026 [1][2]. - The demand model for ESS has been significantly adjusted, with forecasts for ESS consumption in 2025 and 2026 raised to 589 GWh and 736 GWh, respectively, nearly doubling previous estimates [2]. Group 2: Long-term Supply Outlook - Despite the optimistic short-term outlook, Goldman Sachs maintains a bearish medium-term view, predicting a return to oversupply by 2027, with supply exceeding demand by 18% unless producers cut back on capacity expansion plans [1][3]. - The report anticipates that lithium prices will decline from $11,000 per ton in the first half of 2026 to $9,500 per ton in the second half, driven by increased supply from lithium spodumene and the resumption of lithium mica production [3]. Group 3: Price Projections - Goldman Sachs projects an average price of $10,250 per ton for 2026, which remains below CME futures prices, indicating a potential over-optimism in the current market [3]. - For 2027-2028, prices are expected to remain below the estimated incentive price range of $10,200 to $11,000 per ton, necessitating supply cuts to prevent excessive inventory accumulation [3].

Summary of Conference Call on Lithium Sector Industry Overview - The lithium sector is currently experiencing volatility due to changes in demand expectations, with a projected demand growth of 30% as stated by Jiang Feng, the chairman of a leading company in the sector [1][2] - Supply-side increments are expected to reach 250,000 tons by 2026, which is influencing market expectations for lithium prices to rise to 150,000 yuan [1][2] Key Points and Arguments - **Price Dynamics**: The lithium price has recently surged past 100,000 yuan, driven by short-term supply constraints due to increased production costs from CATL's (宁德时代) requirement to pay 177 million yuan for mining rights [1][2] - **Market Sentiment**: Despite the price increase, the spot market has not seen a corresponding rise in transaction volumes, particularly when prices exceed 90,000 yuan, as downstream companies are maintaining low inventory levels [3] - **Inventory Trends**: Recent data indicates a slowdown in inventory depletion, with weekly reductions dropping from 3,400 tons to just over 2,000 tons, as some companies are utilizing finished lithium iron phosphate inventory to reduce demand for lithium carbonate [3] Future Price Outlook - **Short-term Expectations**: Prices are expected to remain strong with fluctuations, particularly as CATL is anticipated to resume production around mid-December, adding approximately 5,000 tons monthly, which may not significantly impact the overall supply-demand balance [4] - **Long-term Projections**: The equilibrium price for lithium is expected to be above 100,000 yuan next year, as high-cost production needs this price level to remain viable [4] Impact of Energy Storage Demand - **Driving Factor**: Energy storage demand is identified as the primary driver for the recent rise in lithium stocks, with expectations that companies will operate at near full capacity in the first half of next year [5][6] - **Policy Influence**: The potential introduction of national energy storage policies could further stimulate demand, leading to unexpected growth if the policies are favorable [5][6] Market Reactions to CATL's Production Resumption - **Market Volatility**: The announcement of CATL's production resumption has caused fluctuations in market sentiment, but it is considered a non-issue for long-term supply-demand balance as it has already been factored into forecasts [7] - **Future Shortages**: There is an anticipated shortfall in the next 2-3 years due to favorable energy storage demand, potentially occurring as early as next year or in 2027 [7] Investment Recommendations - **Key Companies to Watch**: Investors are advised to focus on leading companies such as Dazhong Mining, Guocheng Mining, Shengxin Lithium Energy, and Tianhua New Energy, which show significant growth potential and cost advantages [8] - **Traditional Leaders**: Companies like Zhongmin Resources, Ganfeng Lithium, and Tianqi Lithium are also worth monitoring, but investors should wait for clear signals of improving demand to enhance their valuation prospects [8]

Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate futures prices have experienced significant volatility, with the main contract dropping from over 100,000 yuan/ton to just above 90,000 yuan/ton, while the spot market remains relatively stable but shows signs of price decline [2][5] Price Trends - Since June, lithium carbonate prices have risen approximately 50%, from around 60,000 yuan/ton to just over 90,000 yuan/ton, with a peak of 99,300 yuan/ton on November 20 [3][4] - On November 21, the main futures contract fell by 9% to 91,000 yuan/ton, indicating a divergence between futures and spot prices [5][6] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand balance for lithium carbonate is expected to shift, with a slight surplus projected for 2026, but potential monthly mismatches due to non-linear growth in energy storage installations [2][6] - Forecasts indicate that China's lithium carbonate demand will increase from 53.4 million tons in 2023 to 121.2 million tons in 2025, while supply is expected to reach 119.8 million tons [5][6] Market Sentiment and Divergence - There are contrasting views within the industry regarding future demand growth, with some executives expressing skepticism about a 50% increase across the board, citing potential demand destruction from rising battery prices [4][5] - The market sentiment remains cautious, with major lithium producers maintaining normal production levels and showing reluctance to increase supply significantly until prices stabilize above 100,000 yuan/ton for an extended period [6][8] Storage Demand Influence - The demand for lithium carbonate is increasingly driven by the energy storage sector, with projections indicating a significant increase in storage battery production and market growth [6][7] - The global energy storage market is expected to see substantial growth, with anticipated shipments reaching 780 GWh in 2026, a 50% increase from previous years [6][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the new energy sector is experiencing significant pullbacks due to the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut schedule on market sentiment, alongside a rapid prior increase in prices of lithium carbonate, iron lithium cathodes, and electrolytes [1] Group 2 - In terms of fundamentals, the lithium carbonate market has shown emotional characteristics, with prices recently surpassing 100,000 yuan/ton, primarily driven by a shortage in ore supply; however, the actual supply-demand tightness does not justify the current price levels, indicating an influence of market sentiment [2] - The focus in the materials sector is on the long-term contract prices between material manufacturers and leading battery manufacturers; while historically, leading battery manufacturers have delayed negotiations, this year may differ due to full order books from downstream customers, potentially limiting the duration of such delays [2] - Overall, there are no significant changes in fundamentals, with a positive outlook for energy storage demand; Q1 2026 is expected to remain strong despite being a traditionally weak season, but ongoing attention is needed on market sentiment and battery manufacturers' production plans, suggesting a continuation of a volatile market in the short term [2] - Interested investors may consider low-entry opportunities in the sector through various ETFs, including the New Energy Vehicle ETF (159806), Photovoltaic 50 ETF (159864), Growth Enterprise Board New Energy ETF (159387), and Carbon Neutrality 50 ETF (159861) [2]