文：泽平宏观团队 任何资产都不会永远下跌，房地产也一样。 2021年以来，楼市跌了四五年，全国销售额比高点时跌去了一半，一二线城市房价跌了20%-30%，部分三四线甚至腰斩，那么，未来房价还会涨吗？哪些 信号出现可以入场？ 最近我提出了一个新观点，在市场上引发广泛讨论，楼市的二八现象：未来只有20%的核心城市房价会再创新高，剩下80%的城市将会长期阴跌。 我一直讲，房地产是周期之母，房地产稳则经济稳。如果未来政策从放松转向鼓励，发挥房地产拉动经济复苏的作用，那么，大家就一定要重视了。房价 涨，政策先行，政策是房价上涨的核心前提。 我研究了20多年房地产，出版了三本专著《房地产周期》《全球房地产》《房地产大趋势》，提出"房地产长期看人口、中期看土地、短期看金融"的分析 框架。 根据全球几十个国家的房地产百年历史，总结出了房价涨跌的核心逻辑。 今天咱们就不绕弯子了，给大家拆解房价上涨的3大信号，看懂了可以帮你少走很多弯路。这3大信号都有历史案例和数据支撑，屡试不爽。 第一大信号，政策从"放松"全面转向"鼓励"，定位发生重大转变 房地产市场很大程度上是政策市，受政策影响非常大。货币政策、税费政策、土地政策都会影响市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction in Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and deposit rates by major banks is aimed at lowering financing costs for businesses and consumers, thereby stimulating investment and consumption in the economy [1][3][10]. Summary by Sections LPR and Loan Impact - The one-year LPR is now at 3%, and the five-year LPR is at 3.5%, both down by 10 basis points. This reduction translates to a monthly payment decrease of 56 yuan for a 1 million yuan mortgage over 30 years, totaling a reduction of 20,000 yuan over the loan term [1][3]. Deposit Rate Adjustments - Major state-owned banks and joint-stock banks have collectively lowered deposit rates, with the largest cut being 25 basis points for three-year and five-year fixed deposits. The one-year fixed deposit rate has fallen below 1% [4][5][9]. Economic Implications - The reduction in deposit rates exceeds the LPR decrease, which is expected to help banks lower their funding costs. This is crucial as the net interest margin for commercial banks has dropped to 1.43%, below the regulatory benchmark of 1.8% [9][10]. - The LPR reduction is seen as a positive signal for reducing corporate financing costs and easing the financial burden on households, potentially boosting consumer spending and stabilizing the real estate market [10][11]. Real Estate Market Signals - The recent policy changes, including the LPR cut, are expected to enhance credit supply in the real estate sector, which is vital for economic growth. The real estate market has shown signs of stabilization, although the foundation for this recovery remains fragile [11][12]. - The reduction in housing loan rates is anticipated to lower the threshold for housing consumption, thereby supporting demand in the real estate market [11][12]. Future Outlook - The government is committed to stabilizing the real estate market through various policies, and the recent interest rate adjustments are part of a broader strategy to stimulate domestic demand and support economic recovery [13][14].