格隆汇1月8日｜据证券日报，2026年中国人民银行工作会议于1月5日至6日召开，会议强调"灵活高效运 用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕"等。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青预计，2026年央 行将降息2次，降息幅度为20个基点至30个基点（0.2个百分点至0.3个百分点），初步预计上半年和下半 年各降息一次。另外，从推动房地产市场止跌回稳等角度出发，2026年还有可能通过单独引导5年期以 上LPR（贷款市场报价利率）较大幅度下行等方式，对居民房贷实施定向降息。2026年央行将降准1次 至2次，幅度为0.5个百分点至1个百分点，接下来可重点关注春节前降准能否落地。 ...

截至目前，中国央行贷款市场报价利率（LPR）已连续7个月保持不变。今年5月，1年期LPR降至3%，5 年期以上LPR降至3.5%，均较上一期下降10个基点。 东方金诚认为，6月以来LPR报价一直按兵不动，背后的根本原因是受年初以来出口持续超预期、国内 新质生产力领域较快发展等支撑，今年宏观经济顶住外部环境剧烈波动压力，增长韧性超出普遍预期； 下半年以来经济增长动能有所弱化，但实现全年"5.0%左右"的经济增长目标已没有悬念。由此，年底前 逆周期调节加力的迫切性不高，货币政策保持较强定力。 彭博社提到，中国在2024年底的中央经济工作会议上时隔十四年重提"实施适度宽松的货币政策"，加之 中国当时正在为特朗普上任后的中美关税战做准备，大幅推高了市场对中国实施宽松政策的预期。 12月7日，昆明顺城"冬梦之集"点燃岁末消费热潮视觉中国 然而，经济学家低估了两个关键因素：一是中国出口的，二是官方对银行业健康状况的担忧。此外，年 内股市的大幅上涨也是延缓货币支持政策出台的原因之一。 分析认为，通过选择温和刺激政策，中国走出了一条独特的路径，既区别于其他主要央行的政策取向， 也与自身近年的操作模式不同。如今，中方正转而依靠 ...

【导读】央行发布《中国金融稳定报告（ 2025 ）》 中国基金报记者 张玲 《报告》通过多篇专栏，对利率市场化改革、上市公司市值管理、中长期资金入市、房地产 市场平稳健康发展等进行述评，提出持续深化利率市场化改革，推动利率 " 形得成 "" 调得 了 " ；着力健全有利于 " 长钱长投 " 的制度政策环境，显著提高各类中长期资金实际投资 A 股的规模和比例；加强房地产金融宏观审慎管理，稳妥有序完善房地产信贷基础性制度等。 展望后续，《报告》指出，将坚持稳中求进工作总基调，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，加 大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，持续防范化解重点领域风险，实现 " 十五五 " 良好开局。 持续深化利率市场化改革，推动利率 " 形得成 "" 调得了 " 《报告》指出，中国人民银行按照 " 放得开、形得成、调得了 " 的总体思路，稳步推进利率 市场化改革。 " 放得开 " 目标已基本实现。目前，对利率的行政性管制已经放开，基本建立了市场化的利 率形成和传导机制，以及较为完整的市场化利率体系。 " 形得成 " 和 " 调得了 " 仍任重道远。贷款市场报价利率（ LPR ）改革以来，由于银行定 价能力不足、 " 内卷式 ...

Group 1: Key News and Insights - The December 22 LPR remains unchanged at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for 5-year loans, indicating a stable monetary policy environment [1][12] - The launch of the National Venture Capital Guiding Fund aims to attract diverse investments, targeting a total fund size of trillions by leveraging central government funds [1][22] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has initiated 21 key measures to support the high-quality development of the Western Land-Sea New Corridor, emphasizing financial support and cooperation [1][15][16] Group 2: Market Overview - The domestic securities market showed mixed performance, with the Sci-Tech 100 index rising by 5.60%, while other major indices experienced declines [2][26] - The non-ferrous metals sector led the industry gains with a 6.43% increase, reflecting strong demand dynamics [2][28] Group 3: Buyback and Stake Increase - A total of 5 companies reported significant shareholder buybacks, with Kangnibei planning to increase its stake by over 1% of total shares [3][34] - 60 companies announced buyback plans, with 9 companies intending to repurchase more than 1% of their total shares, highlighting a trend of corporate confidence [3][36] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - In the technology sector, companies focused on artificial intelligence, semiconductor chips, and robotics are expected to outperform due to favorable policies and liquidity conditions [4][39] - The non-bank financial sector, particularly brokerage firms, is anticipated to benefit from a slow bull market, while insurance companies may see improved returns on long-term assets [4][40] - The copper market is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, supporting price increases, while energy metals like lithium and cobalt remain attractive due to battery and storage demand [4][40] - The electric equipment sector is poised for growth driven by AI and renewable energy, indicating a robust future demand for power equipment [4][41] - Domestic consumption is projected to expand, with a focus on enhancing consumer spending capabilities [4][42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic economic fundamentals showed marginal slowdown in industrial growth and social retail in November, with fixed investment in continuous negative growth and stable unemployment. Financial data in November was structurally differentiated, with social financing increment exceeding expectations due to direct financing, but credit continued to weaken, and the demand for long - term corporate investment remained weak. CPI continued to improve, while the decline of PPI widened slightly. Overseas, the US economy maintained resilience with strong consumption, but the job market cooled. The market's expectation of future interest - rate cuts increased. The central bank's monetary policy in the next year will continue the moderately loose tone, but the urgency of short - term interest - rate cuts is low. It is expected that interest rates will continue to fluctuate in the short term [99]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures' main contracts rose by 0.27%, 0.14%, 0.08%, and 0.06% respectively. The trading volume of the TS main contract increased, while the trading volumes of the TF, T, and TL main contracts decreased slightly. The open interest of the TF, T, TS, and TL main contracts all increased [13][16][22][30]. 3.2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: On December 22, the 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPR remained unchanged, with cumulative decreases of 10 basis points this year. The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference proposed to optimize real - estate policies. The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee meeting in the fourth quarter emphasized maintaining capital - market stability. The Ministry of Finance and other 9 departments formulated the enterprise climate - information disclosure guidelines. The National Development and Reform Commission proposed to regulate the "new three items" industries [33][34]. - **Overseas News**: The US GDP in Q3 2025 increased by 4.3% quarter - on - quarter annually, and consumer spending was the main driving force. Japan's 2026 fiscal - year preliminary budget reached 122.3092 trillion yen, a record high [34][35]. 3.3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes**: The spreads between 10 - year and 5 - year, 10 - year and 1 - year Treasury bond yields widened. The spreads between the TF and TS, T and TF main contracts widened. The 10 - year, 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures' near - far month spreads all widened [43][49][53][60]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Main - Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 holders in the T Treasury bond futures main contract decreased [67]. - **Interest - Rate Changes**: Overnight and 2 - week Shibor rates decreased, while 1 - week and 1 - month Shibor rates increased. The DR007 weighted average rate rebounded to around 1.52%. The short - end yields of Treasury bond cash bonds were strong, with 1 - 7Y yields decreasing by 1.10 - 6.75bp, and 10Y and 30Y yields decreasing by about 0.5bp to 1.84% and 2.22% respectively. The spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields narrowed slightly [69][74]. - **Central Bank's Open - Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 422.7 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 210 billion yuan in treasury - cash fixed deposits this week, with 457.5 billion yuan in reverse - repo maturities and 120 billion yuan in treasury - cash fixed - deposit maturities, resulting in a net withdrawal of 244.8 billion yuan. The DR007 weighted average rate rebounded to around 1.52% [78]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the total bond issuance was 983.033 billion yuan, and the total repayment was 1081.165 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 98.132 billion yuan [82]. - **Market Sentiment**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.0358, with a cumulative increase of 192 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB narrowed. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield decreased slightly, the VIX index decreased, the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield increased slightly, and the A - share risk premium decreased slightly [85][91][96]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The domestic economic internal driving force needs to be boosted. The central bank's monetary policy in the next year will continue the moderately loose tone, but the short - term urgency of interest - rate cuts is low. It is expected that interest rates will continue to fluctuate in the short term [99].

中新 中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心22日公布最新一期贷款市场报价利率(LPR):1年期LPR为 3.0%,5年期以上LPR为3.5%。两个期限品种的LPR均连续7个月不变。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认 为,受内外部多重因素影响,2026年一季度央行有可能实施新一轮降息降准,不排除春节前靠前落地的可 能。这将带动两个期限品种的LPR报价跟进下调,引导企业和居民贷款利率更大幅度下行,激发内生性融 资需求。 ...

"随着银行持续向实体经济减费让利，银行息差缩窄压力仍然不小。此外，企业新发放贷款、个人住房 贷款加权平均利率均处于历史低位，综合融资成本下降是货币条件比较宽松的重要体现。在这种情况 下，引导LPR下降并非当务之急。"招联首席研究员董希淼表示，随着市场利率不断降低，降息的边际 效应也在下降，降息并非当前稳增长、促消费的关键因素。 ◎记者 张琼斯 贷款市场报价利率（LPR）连续7个月维持不变。12月22日，央行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布：1 年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，12月两个期限的LPR保持不变，主要是因为：近期政策利率保持稳 定，意味着LPR报价的定价基础没有发生变化；12月以来主要中长端市场利率稳中有升，银行在货币市 场的融资成本略有上升，报价行缺乏主动下调LPR报价加点的动力。 王青认为，今年6月以来LPR"按兵不动"，根本原因是受年初以来出口超预期、新质生产力领域较快发 展等支撑，今年宏观经济顶住了外部环境波动压力，增长韧性超出预期，可以实现全年"5.0%左右"的经 济增长目标，年底前逆周期调节加力的迫切性不高，货币政策保持较强定力。 关于2 ...

12月22日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布的新一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）显示， 12月1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%，维持上期报价不变。今年以来，1年期和5年期以上LPR 分别累计下降10个基点，促进贷款利率稳中有降。 LPR报价由央行政策利率和报价行报价加点共同决定。自今年5月LPR报价跟随当月央行降息下降10个 基点后，作为央行政策利率的7天期逆回购利率再无调整，这意味着LPR报价的定价基础未发生变化。 与此同时，今年以来商业银行整体处于偏低的净息差水平，也导致报价行缺乏主动下调LPR报价加点的 意愿。 此外，央行今年以来持续畅通利率传导机制，也推动了社会综合融资成本下行。一方面，央行引导各地 逐步有序加入明示企业贷款综合融资成本试点，有效保障金融消费者知情权；另一方面，央行强化利率 政策执行和监督，督促金融机构坚持风险定价原则，合理确定存贷款利率，维护市场竞争秩序。同时， 充分发挥利率自律机制作用，大力治理资金空转、手工补息等行为，稳定银行负债成本。 央行最新数据显示，11月企业新发放贷款（本外币）加权平均利率约为3.1%，比上年同期低约30个基 点；个人住房新发放 ...

12月22日，今年最后一期LPR(贷款市场报价利率)出炉。中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公 布，1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。两个期限LPR均维持前值不变，截至目前LPR已经连续 7个月"原地踏步"。 "当前无论是企业新发放贷款还是个人住房贷款加权平均利率均处于历史低位。在这种情况下，引导 LPR下降并非当务之急。"董希淼说。 今年以来，LPR仅调整过一次。5月份，中国人民银行下调7天期逆回购操作利率0.1个百分点，1年期 LPR和5年期以上LPR也随之在当月下降0.1个百分点，分别报3.0%、3.5%。 王青认为，6月份以来LPR维持不变的主要原因，是受年初以来出口持续超预期、国内新质生产力领域 较快发展等支撑，今年宏观经济顶住外部环境剧烈波动压力，增长韧性凸显。由此，年底前逆周期调节 加力的迫切性不高，货币政策保持较强定力。 对于2026年货币政策，近期召开的中央经济工作会议强调，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经 济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流 动性充裕，畅通货币政策传导机制，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京12月22日电（高二山）人民银行22日开展673亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.40%，与此前持平；鉴于当日有1309亿元逆回购到 期，公开市场实现净回笼636亿元。 上海银行间同业拆放利率（Shibor）隔夜和7天品种微跌，14天品种继续微涨。具体来看，隔夜Shibor下跌0.13BP，报1.2720%；7天Shibor下跌 1.41BP，报1.4170%；14天Shibor上涨0.82BP，报1.6160%。 来源：全国银行间同业拆借中心 银行间质押式回购市场方面，多数品种波动不大，R014品种涨超13BP突破1.75%。具体看，DR001、R001加权平均利率分别与前日持平、上行 0.3BP，报1.2705%、1.3547%，成交额分别减少973亿元、994亿元；DR007、R007加权平均利率分别下行0.8BP、0.8BP，报1.4337%、1.5063%， 成交额分别增加206亿元、减少650亿元；DR014、R014加权平均利率分别下行0.1BP、上行13.4BP，报1.6046%、1.7504%，成交额分别增加233亿 元、2902亿元。 货币市场利率（12月22 ...