文： 泽平宏观团队 任何资产都不会永远下跌，房地产也一样。 2021 年以来，楼市跌了四五年，全国销售额比高点时跌去了一半，一二线城市房价跌了 20%-30% ，部分三四线甚至腰斩，那么， 未来房价还会涨吗？哪些信号出现可以入场？ 最近我提出了一个新观点，在市场上引发广泛讨论， 楼市的二八现象：未来只有 20% 的核心城市 房价会再创新高，剩下 80% 的城市将会长期阴跌。 我研究了 20 多年房地产，出版了三本专著《房地产周期》《全球房地产》《房地产大趋势》，提 出"房地产长期看人口、中期看土地、短期看金融"的分析框架。 根据全球几十个国家的房地产百年历史，总结出了房价涨跌的核心逻辑。 今天咱们就不绕弯子了，给大家拆解未来房价上涨的 3 大信号 ，看懂了可以帮你少走很多弯路。 这 3 大信号都有历史案例和数据支撑，屡试不爽。 第一大信号，政策从"放松"全面转向"鼓励"，定位发生重大转变 房地产市场很大程度上是政策市，受政策影响非常大。货币政策、税费政策、土地政策都会影响市 场。 2016 年国家首次提出"房住不炒 " ，表明国家要遏制投机炒作，降负债、降杠杆。没几年，随着政 策不断加码，房地产历史性拐点出现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is expected to experience a significant shift, with only 20% of core cities likely to see housing prices reach new highs, while the remaining 80% may face prolonged declines [2]. Group 1: Policy Signals - The policy environment is shifting from "relaxation" to "encouragement," indicating a major transformation in the government's approach to the real estate market [3]. - The government has previously emphasized "housing is for living, not for speculation," and is now moving towards measures that will promote market stabilization and recovery [4]. - Future policy measures are expected to include the lifting of purchase restrictions, significant reductions in mortgage rates, and tax relief to restore market confidence [6]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Economic recovery, indicated by rising employment and household income, is essential for supporting the housing market, with the manufacturing PMI new orders index serving as a key leading indicator [7]. - Historical data shows that when the new orders index rebounds, housing prices in major cities tend to rise, as seen in previous years [7][8]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - A reversal in supply-demand dynamics is anticipated, with a decrease in residential land transaction area by 18% year-on-year, while premium land parcels remain highly sought after [10]. - Core cities are experiencing population inflows, which, combined with limited land supply, is expected to improve the supply-demand balance and drive up housing prices [10].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a significant downturn, with sales halving compared to peak levels, and prices in first and second-tier cities dropping by 20%-30%. A new perspective suggests that only 20% of core cities will see prices rise again, while 80% will face prolonged declines [2]. Group 1: Signals for Future Price Increases - The first major signal is a shift in policy from "relaxation" to "encouragement," indicating a significant change in government stance towards the real estate market. This includes potential easing of restrictions on purchases and loans [4][5]. - The second signal is the emergence of an economic turning point, with leading indicators such as the manufacturing PMI new orders index showing recovery, which supports housing demand [9]. - The third signal involves a reversal in supply-demand dynamics, where hotspots with increasing populations and decreasing land supply will see price increases. For instance, residential land transaction areas are expected to drop by 18% year-on-year in 2024, while core cities continue to attract young populations [12]. Group 2: Policy Changes and Economic Indicators - Future policy signals are expected to include comprehensive easing of purchase restrictions, significant reductions in mortgage rates, and tax relief measures to restore market confidence [7][8]. - Historical precedents indicate that prior to market recoveries, key policy changes such as interest rate cuts and the easing of purchase restrictions have been critical [8]. - Economic recovery indicators, such as the urban resident income confidence index and employment expectations, are crucial for predicting housing market trends [9]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Strategy - The long-term strategy emphasizes the importance of investing in core cities and prime locations to ensure property value appreciation and resilience against market cycles. The "80/20 phenomenon" in real estate suggests focusing on the top 20% of cities for investment opportunities [14].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is expected to experience a shift, with only 20% of core cities likely to see price increases, while 80% of cities may continue to decline in value. This perspective is based on extensive research and historical data analysis of real estate trends [3][4][5]. Policy Signals - The real estate market is heavily influenced by government policies, including monetary, tax, and land policies. The recent shift in policy towards "promoting stability in the real estate market" indicates a move towards a relaxation phase, which could lead to the removal of various purchase and loan restrictions [5][7]. - A combination of policy measures is anticipated, including the lifting of purchase restrictions, a significant decrease in mortgage rates, and tax reductions to restore market confidence. These measures are expected to stimulate demand and support price increases [7][8]. Economic Indicators - Economic recovery, indicated by rising employment and income levels, is essential for supporting the real estate market. The manufacturing PMI new orders index serves as a leading indicator for economic turning points, which historically correlates with real estate price increases [8][11]. - Other indicators such as the urban resident income confidence index and employment expectation index are also critical for assessing market sentiment and potential price movements [8]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The relationship between supply and demand is crucial for real estate pricing. A decrease in available residential land and an influx of population into key cities will likely improve the supply-demand balance, leading to price increases in those areas [11][14]. - Notable cities like Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Shenzhen are experiencing significant population growth, which is expected to drive continuous housing demand [11][14]. Summary of Key Signals - The three core signals for potential real estate price increases are: a shift in policy from "relaxation" to "encouragement," the emergence of economic turning points with rising leading indicators, and a reversal in supply-demand dynamics favoring key cities [14].

Core Insights - The real estate market is expected to recover as policies shift from "relaxation" to "encouragement" with significant changes in positioning [1] - Economic indicators are showing signs of recovery, which could support the housing market alongside policy catalysts [1] - A reversal in supply-demand dynamics is anticipated, particularly in hotspot cities where population influx and land supply constraints are expected to drive up prices [2] Policy Shifts - The policy environment is moving towards a "combination punch" approach, including the full lifting of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities and significant reductions in mortgage rates and taxes [1] - The expectation is that purchase restrictions will be fully lifted in the outer rings of first-tier cities within three years [1] Economic Indicators - Leading indicators such as the manufacturing PMI new orders index are showing signs of recovery, which historically correlates with rising housing prices in major cities [1] - Other relevant indicators include the urban resident income confidence index and employment expectation index, both of which have shown positive trends in previous housing market upswings [1] Supply-Demand Dynamics - The housing market is fundamentally driven by supply and demand, with an expected improvement in the supply-demand balance in key cities due to population growth and decreasing land supply [2] - Notable land auction results in cities like Beijing and Shanghai indicate strong market confidence in core urban areas, with premium land sales reflecting long-term optimism [2] - Key cities such as Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Shenzhen are projected to see significant population increases, which will sustain housing demand [2]