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【白银期货收评】沪银日内上涨0.67% 供应短缺博弈降温
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-12-03 08:06
【白银期货最新行情】 全球最大白银ETF——iShares Silver Trust的白银持仓量为15863.15吨,较前一交易日增加60.79吨。 【机构观点】 沪银期现结构反转逐渐修复,供应短缺博弈降温,特朗普暗示美联储主席人选为哈塞特,叠加日债拍卖 需求强劲和加密市场回稳,风险偏好企稳,银价大幅震荡。沪银溢价扩大至420元/克,国内情绪强劲。 美联储降息预期回归和俄乌和谈乐观预期共同影响,供应短缺博弈仍将继续,银价仍有向上推动,但实 际短缺可能性有限,谨慎追高。沪银2602:13100-13800区间操作。 由于交易员在即将到来的美国关键数据发布前获利了结,白银失去了动能。交易员们准备迎接周三晚些 时候发布的美国ADP就业变动和ISM服务业PMI数据。 芝加哥商品交易所的美联储观察工具的数据显示,联邦基金期货交易员目前预计,美联储在12月9日至 10日会议结束时降息的可能性接近89%,高于一周前的71%。 美国特使史蒂夫.维特科夫本周将会见俄罗斯总统普京,讨论结束俄罗斯与乌克兰战争的潜在和平计 划。任何紧张局势升级的迹象都可能提振黄金白银等避险资产,而围绕和平协议的乐观情绪可能在短期 内削弱黄金白银。 ...
供应端短缺博弈仍将继续 沪银期货维持涨势八连阳
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-12-03 06:04
沪银期现结构反转逐渐修复,供应短缺博弈降温,特朗普暗示美联储主席人选为哈塞特,叠加日债拍卖 需求强劲和加密市场回稳,风险偏好企稳,银价大幅震荡。沪银溢价扩大至420元/克,国内情绪强劲。 美联储降息预期回归和俄乌和谈乐观预期共同影响,供应短缺博弈仍将继续,银价仍有向上推动,但实 际短缺可能性有限,谨慎追高。 南华期货(603093):贵金属价格重心继续上抬 从中长期维度看,央行购金以及投资需求增长前景(货币宽松前景、阶段性避险交易、以及对AI股防御 式配置需求)仍将助推贵金属价格重心继续上抬。短期看,低库存现实以及需求短期释放可能性,增加 价格向上弹性,周内白银已经续刷新高,伦敦银在突破55关口后,目标位已进一步上抬至65,第一阻力 60整数关口;伦敦金阻力4250,强阻力4400,支撑4000。 东吴期货:白银将维持上涨趋势 特朗普称明年初将宣布美联储主席人选,并强烈暗示哈塞特。美国特使已抵达莫斯科,为俄乌和平谈判 做准备。避险情绪缓和,黄金震荡微跌。预计中长期来看,贸易政策不确定性、降息周期开启等因素 下,黄金白银将维持上涨趋势。 大越期货:银价仍有向上推动 12月3日盘中,沪银期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上 ...
美国制造业收缩白银期货冲高
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-12-03 03:08
北京时间周三(12月3日)亚盘时段,白银期货守住上一日涨幅继续攀升,现报13804.00元/千克,涨幅 2.31%,截至发稿沪银主力最高触及13828.00元/千克,最低下探至13430.00元/千克,目前来看,沪银主 力盘内短线偏向多头态势。 【要闻速递】 周二,金价下跌1%,主要受美国国债收益率上升和前一交易日金价达到六周高点后的一波获了结推 动。与此同时,白银从前一天创下的历史高点回落。美元在前一交易日跌至两周低点后出现反弹。 与此同时,受日本和欧洲政府债券疲软的影响,基准10年期美国国债收益率达到近两周高点。收益率的 上升使得黄金白银等无息资产的吸引力下降。 市场焦点正转向即将发布的经济报告,以寻找美联储下周议息会议可能做出的利率决定的进一步迹象。 这些关键报告包括周三公布的11月ADP就业数据和周五公布的9月个人消费支出指数。 在此之前,周一公布的数据证实,11月份美国制造业已连续第九个月收缩。 根据芝加哥商品交易所的美联储观察工具,市场目前认为美联储在12月降息的可能性很高,有87%的可 能性。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银期现结构反转逐渐修复,供应短缺博弈降温,特朗普暗示美联储主席人选为哈塞特 ...
贵金属早报-20251128
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 02:16
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Gold prices are oscillating due to the glimmer of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, the suspension of U.S. stocks, and the combined influence of the return of Fed rate - cut expectations and optimistic expectations of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks. The premium of Shanghai gold maintains an oscillation around - 3.2 yuan/gram. The support for gold prices has significantly weakened with the improvement of factors such as Fed rate cuts and Sino - U.S. tariff concerns [4]. - Silver prices are also oscillating. The premium of Shanghai silver converges to 310 yuan/gram, and the sentiment of Shanghai silver remains strong. Silver prices are mainly following gold prices, and influenced by multiple factors, they are oscillating at a high level [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The U.S. dollar index dropped 0.03% to 99.55, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the U.S. dollar to 7.0742, and COMEX gold futures fell 0.3% to $4189.6 per ounce. The basis is - 5.26, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The inventory of gold futures warrants is 90423 kilograms, unchanged. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, and the main long position increases [4][5]. - **Silver**: The U.S. dollar index dropped 0.03% to 99.55, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the U.S. dollar to 7.0742, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.41% to $53.825 per ounce. The basis is - 27, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants is 546976 kilograms, with a daily increase of 15765 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, but the main long position decreases [6]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, and the inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to fall. However, the support for gold prices has weakened significantly as factors such as the Fed rate cut and Sino - U.S. tariff concerns have improved [10]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The tariff concern has a stronger impact on silver prices, and silver prices are prone to an enlarged increase. The factors affecting silver prices are similar to those of gold, with both positive and negative factors coexisting [14]. 3. Today's Focus - Data to be released include Japan's October unemployment rate, November Tokyo CPI, October retail sales, and industrial output preliminary value; France's Q3 GDP final value and October CPI preliminary value; Switzerland's Q3 GDP; India's Q3 GDP; Germany's November CPI preliminary value; Canada's September GDP. The U.S. stock market will close early, and China's November official manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI will be released on Sunday [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis is - 5.26, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures warrants is 90423 kilograms, unchanged [5]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 27, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants is 546976 kilograms, with a daily increase of 15765 kilograms [6]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: On November 27, 2025, the long position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 1242 to 166495, a decrease of 0.74%; the short position volume decreased by 938 to 60457, a decrease of 1.53%; the net position decreased by 304 to 106038, a decrease of 0.29% [30]. - **Silver**: On November 27, 2025, the long position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 27850 to 389587, an increase of 7.70%; the short position volume increased by 27026 to 296616, an increase of 10.02%; the net position increased by 824 to 92971, an increase of 0.89% [31]. - **ETF Position**: The SPDR gold ETF position shows an oscillating increase, and the silver ETF position shows an oscillating decrease but remains higher than the same period in the past two years [33][36]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The Shanghai gold warehouse receipts show a slight increase, the COMEX gold warehouse receipts continue to decrease but remain at a high level. The Shanghai silver warehouse receipts show a slight increase and are at the lowest level in the past six years, and the COMEX silver warehouse receipts continue to decrease [37][38][40].