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金信期货观点-20260313
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2026-03-13 10:22
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found 2. Core Views of the Report - The core contradiction in the current crude oil market is the game between the supply hard gap of 17 million barrels per day caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and policy hedges such as the release of strategic reserves and the relaxation of Russian oil. The release of IEA strategic reserves may only temporarily suppress prices, and the supplementary scale of Russian crude oil is limited, unable to fill the core gap. The inflation driven by crude oil and the shift of monetary policy will be the core themes in the next 1 - 2 months [4]. - Due to the low traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz, the PX load has decreased under the concern of supply interruption, and South Korean cracking units are also reducing their loads, affecting the supply of olefins and aromatics. On the demand side, the PTA operating rate has increased, and the polyester load is being restored. PTA shows a strong trend supported by costs, but its processing fees are squeezed. The device restart has accelerated, while the recovery of the downstream polyester load is slow, and inventory accumulation may continue in March [4]. - The impact of the Middle - East situation on the ethylene glycol market ranges from cost to supply tightening. Both domestic and foreign supplies of ethylene glycol are shrinking. The market remains strong before the Middle - East conflict is substantially improved. Currently, the profit of coal - based MEG plants has been greatly restored, and the start - up is expected to increase [5]. - The reduction of cracking unit loads this week has led to a decrease in pure benzene supply, especially in South Korea. Although the pure benzene port inventory is still at a high level, there are still expectations of refinery production cuts. Domestic and overseas factories are starting to hoard pure benzene. The downstream demand for pure benzene is expected to increase from March to June, and downstream enterprises are actively replenishing inventory due to the short - term spot shortage. Benzene styrene has entered a de - stocking cycle. It is expected that pure benzene and benzene styrene will maintain a strong and volatile pattern [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Crude Oil - The core contradiction is the supply gap caused by the Strait of Hormuz blockade and policy hedges. The release of strategic reserves may not solve the problem fundamentally, and the supplementary scale of Russian oil is limited. In the medium - term (March - April), oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels following geopolitical sentiments [4]. PX & PTA - PX: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic PX is 89.26%, a decrease of 1.9% from last week; the weekly average capacity utilization rate of Asian PX is 79.3%, a decrease of 2.14% from last week. The PX - naphtha spread is about $340/ton. Two PX devices are planned for maintenance in March and April. The PX price decline is restricted by crude oil cost support and the expected supply tightening in the second quarter [8]. - PTA: The average spot market price this week is 6,626 yuan/ton, an increase of 994 yuan/ton from last week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate is 80.05%, an increase of 0.55% from last week. The factory inventory days are 5.94 days, an increase of 0.59 days from last week and 0.5 days from the same period last year. The processing fee is compressed to 127 yuan/ton, a decrease of 98 yuan/ton from last week. A 300 - ton PTA device has reduced its load. The Asian PX devices will be intensively maintained in the second quarter, and the supply is expected to be tight [13]. MEG - The average price in East China this week is 4,552 yuan/ton, an increase of 535 yuan/ton from last week. The overall domestic operating rate is 60.1%, a decrease of 5.63% from last week. The coal - based MEG profit has been greatly restored, and the port inventory has started to decline from a high level. Two South Korean MEG devices are on scheduled maintenance until the end of May [18]. BZ & EB - Pure benzene: The domestic capacity utilization rate is 74.2%, a decrease of 2.9% from last week. The pure benzene - naphtha spread fluctuates widely around $180/ton. The Jiangsu pure benzene port inventory is 30.2 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week, still at a high level. - Benzene styrene: The capacity utilization rate is 71.79%, a decrease of 2.32% from last week. The Jiangsu benzene styrene port inventory is 15.65 tons, a decrease of 1.91 tons from last week; the factory inventory is 11.01 tons, a decrease of 1.53 tons from last week. The downstream 3S operating rate is stable, and inventory levels are decreasing, with resilient demand [27]. Polyester and Weaving Industry - The weekly average capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry is 83.74%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from last week. The comprehensive operating rate of major domestic weaving production bases is 50.91%, an increase of 11.41% from last week. The average number of terminal weaving order days is 12.48 days, an increase of 5.49 days from last week. The average level of terminal weaving finished product inventory is 19.71 days, a decrease of 3.93 days from last week. After the Lantern Festival, workers are gradually returning to work, and with the arrival of the traditional peak season in March, the domestic market is warming up, but new orders are still limited [21].