Core Viewpoint - The decision to open or close the Strait of Hormuz lies with Iran's supreme leadership and will depend on the level of external pressure on Iran's oil exports [3]. Group 1 - The commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, Tangsiri, stated that the authority to decide on the Strait of Hormuz is in the hands of Iran's highest leadership [3]. - The potential decision regarding the Strait of Hormuz will be influenced by the extent of external pressure on Iran's oil exports [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities mark a significant turning point in the Middle East, potentially leading to a broader conflict and a restructuring of regional order [1][12]. Group 1: U.S. Actions and Motivations - President Trump announced the completion of airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites, aiming to eliminate Iran's nuclear capabilities [2][12]. - The U.S. military action is seen as a response to Iran's unwillingness to compromise in negotiations and is influenced by domestic political needs to divert attention from internal issues [2][3]. - Experts suggest that the U.S. is leveraging the situation to support Israel while simultaneously attempting to weaken Iran [3][12]. Group 2: Iranian Response and Regional Implications - Iran has indicated a potential increase in retaliatory actions against Israel, while its response to U.S. targets remains uncertain [4][6]. - The conflict has escalated, with Iran launching missile attacks on Israeli targets, prompting Israel to conduct airstrikes on Iranian military sites [6][7]. - The situation has raised concerns about a cycle of retaliation that could spiral into a larger conflict, with the UN warning of a "bottomless pit" of reprisals [6][7]. Group 3: International Reactions - Various international actors, including Russia and the EU, have condemned the U.S. actions, calling for diplomatic solutions to the crisis [7][8]. - The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has reported no increase in radiation levels following the attacks, emphasizing the need for diplomatic engagement [8]. Group 4: Economic and Energy Concerns - The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran is viewed as a last resort that could trigger a global energy crisis, affecting oil supply and prices significantly [13][14]. - The ongoing conflict and military actions are likely to disrupt energy markets, with implications for global economic stability [14].

Market Reaction - Asian markets opened in a typical risk-averse mode following the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, but there was no panic selling [1] - U.S. stock futures initially opened down about 1% but narrowed the decline to around 0.4% [1] - Oil prices surged initially, with WTI crude reaching $79 per barrel before retreating to $76, reflecting a 2.95% increase [5] - The dollar strengthened against the euro and most major currencies, with the dollar index rising 0.22% to 98.99 [7] - Gold prices initially spiked but then fell back, currently reported at $3,369 per ounce [9] Geopolitical Context - President Trump announced the completion of airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities, suggesting a potential regime change in Iran [1] - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Iran's nuclear and missile programs have been significantly damaged, with military actions nearing completion [1] - Despite the escalating geopolitical tensions, Iran has not shown clear signs of retaliation, leading to a relatively restrained market response [2] Oil Market Implications - Analysts warn that if Iran were to block the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could spike to $120-$150 per barrel, significantly impacting the global economy [2][7] - The market is closely monitoring Iran's potential actions, with a 35% probability estimated for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [7] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin experienced a significant drop, falling below the $100,000 mark for the first time since May, while Ethereum also saw substantial declines [10]

以伊冲突持续，市场神经紧绷，关注点集中在霍尔木兹海峡上。 据央视新闻消息，当地时间17日，3艘船只在霍尔木兹海峡附近的阿曼湾海域起火。伊朗法尔斯通讯社 发布了据称是起火船只的照片。 作为全球最重要的能源运输要道之一，霍尔木兹海峡每天约有1800万至1900万桶石油通过，占全球消费 的近20%。一旦被封锁，势必对全球能源安全和市场造成巨大冲击。 伊朗是否会封锁霍尔木兹海峡？纵观历史，伊朗在战争期间确实曾对霍尔木兹海峡造成影响，更是多 次"喊话"威胁封锁，但从未有过真正意义上对该海峡进行过彻底、持续、全面的封锁。 历史上的实质封锁行为：两伊战争时期的"局部封锁" 尽管威胁频繁，伊朗始终未实际封锁海峡。其海军与革命卫队虽具备干扰能力，但未曾采取足以造成全 面封锁的军事行动。 伊朗迄今为止最接近"封锁霍尔木兹海峡"的时期发生在 1980—1988 年的两伊战争期间，尤其是在战争 后期的"油轮战争"阶段。 伊朗在1980年代通过军事行动对霍尔木兹海峡造成"有限度、短时间"的封锁影响，但未曾真正关闭整个 海峡。 21世纪以来的多次封锁威胁：高调喊话，未曾付诸实施 自 2000 年代以来，伊朗多次在面对西方制裁与地区局势紧 ...

Group 1 - Israel has launched a military operation named "Lion's Rise" targeting Iran's nuclear capabilities and military assets [1][3] - The operation includes airstrikes on key Iranian military bases, the assassination of high-ranking military officials, and attacks on nuclear research facilities [1][3] - The Israeli government has declared a state of emergency and closed its airspace, while also relocating key officials to secure locations [1][4] Group 2 - The U.S. has convened a national security meeting to discuss the situation, while also withdrawing some embassy personnel from Iraq and the Middle East [4] - Market reactions include a significant rise in oil prices, a spike in gold prices, and a drop in U.S. stock futures [4] - The potential for Iranian retaliation and its impact on global oil supply, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, is a key concern for financial markets [4]