Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities mark a significant turning point in the Middle East, potentially leading to a broader conflict and a restructuring of regional order [1][12]. Group 1: U.S. Actions and Motivations - President Trump announced the completion of airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites, aiming to eliminate Iran's nuclear capabilities [2][12]. - The U.S. military action is seen as a response to Iran's unwillingness to compromise in negotiations and is influenced by domestic political needs to divert attention from internal issues [2][3]. - Experts suggest that the U.S. is leveraging the situation to support Israel while simultaneously attempting to weaken Iran [3][12]. Group 2: Iranian Response and Regional Implications - Iran has indicated a potential increase in retaliatory actions against Israel, while its response to U.S. targets remains uncertain [4][6]. - The conflict has escalated, with Iran launching missile attacks on Israeli targets, prompting Israel to conduct airstrikes on Iranian military sites [6][7]. - The situation has raised concerns about a cycle of retaliation that could spiral into a larger conflict, with the UN warning of a "bottomless pit" of reprisals [6][7]. Group 3: International Reactions - Various international actors, including Russia and the EU, have condemned the U.S. actions, calling for diplomatic solutions to the crisis [7][8]. - The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has reported no increase in radiation levels following the attacks, emphasizing the need for diplomatic engagement [8]. Group 4: Economic and Energy Concerns - The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran is viewed as a last resort that could trigger a global energy crisis, affecting oil supply and prices significantly [13][14]. - The ongoing conflict and military actions are likely to disrupt energy markets, with implications for global economic stability [14].

周末美国对伊朗核设施发动空袭后，亚洲市场周一开盘呈现典型避险模式，但市场并未出现恐慌性抛售。 美股期货低开后跌幅收窄，原油飙升后涨幅快速回落，黄金冲高回撤： 标普500指数期货开盘下跌约1%，随后跌幅收窄至0.4%左右； 亚市盘初布油一度涨近6%，随后涨幅持续收窄，目前美油、布油涨幅均在3%以内。 美元兑欧元及多数主要货币走强； 基准10年期美国国债收益率上行2BP至4.396%； 现货黄金今日高开后持续走低，目前报3366.28美元/盎司，较日内高点回撤近30美元； 比特币跌3%，一度下探9.9万美元。 据央视新闻、环球网报道，当地时间6月21日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"上发文称，美国已完成对伊朗福尔多、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕 三处核设施的袭击，并表示"伊朗的福尔多（核设施）已不存在"。 特朗普周日首度提及对伊朗"政权更迭"的可能性，与美国官员此前表态形成反差。，特朗普22日在社交媒体平台上写道："可能使用'政权更迭'这 个词并不政治正确，但如果伊朗现政权不能使伊朗变得再次伟大，那为什么不能换政权呢？让伊朗再次伟大！" 尽管地缘政治紧张局势升级，但伊朗迄今未显示出明显报复迹象，市场反应相对克制。投资 ...

以伊冲突持续，市场神经紧绷，关注点集中在霍尔木兹海峡上。 据央视新闻消息，当地时间17日，3艘船只在霍尔木兹海峡附近的阿曼湾海域起火。伊朗法尔斯通讯社 发布了据称是起火船只的照片。 作为全球最重要的能源运输要道之一，霍尔木兹海峡每天约有1800万至1900万桶石油通过，占全球消费 的近20%。一旦被封锁，势必对全球能源安全和市场造成巨大冲击。 伊朗是否会封锁霍尔木兹海峡？纵观历史，伊朗在战争期间确实曾对霍尔木兹海峡造成影响，更是多 次"喊话"威胁封锁，但从未有过真正意义上对该海峡进行过彻底、持续、全面的封锁。 历史上的实质封锁行为：两伊战争时期的"局部封锁" 尽管威胁频繁，伊朗始终未实际封锁海峡。其海军与革命卫队虽具备干扰能力，但未曾采取足以造成全 面封锁的军事行动。 伊朗迄今为止最接近"封锁霍尔木兹海峡"的时期发生在 1980—1988 年的两伊战争期间，尤其是在战争 后期的"油轮战争"阶段。 伊朗在1980年代通过军事行动对霍尔木兹海峡造成"有限度、短时间"的封锁影响，但未曾真正关闭整个 海峡。 21世纪以来的多次封锁威胁：高调喊话，未曾付诸实施 自 2000 年代以来，伊朗多次在面对西方制裁与地区局势紧 ...

Group 1 - Israel has launched a military operation named "Lion's Rise" targeting Iran's nuclear capabilities and military assets [1][3] - The operation includes airstrikes on key Iranian military bases, the assassination of high-ranking military officials, and attacks on nuclear research facilities [1][3] - The Israeli government has declared a state of emergency and closed its airspace, while also relocating key officials to secure locations [1][4] Group 2 - The U.S. has convened a national security meeting to discuss the situation, while also withdrawing some embassy personnel from Iraq and the Middle East [4] - Market reactions include a significant rise in oil prices, a spike in gold prices, and a drop in U.S. stock futures [4] - The potential for Iranian retaliation and its impact on global oil supply, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, is a key concern for financial markets [4]