Report Summary 1. Hot News - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25-basis-point cuts, in line with market expectations. Fed Chair candidate Waller supports a 25-basis-point cut, aligning with Trump's "appointed" director Milan. The Fed stated that the unemployment rate has shown initial signs of stabilization, inflation remains relatively high, and economic uncertainties are still significant. Fed Chair Powell said that raising interest rates is not anyone's basic assumption for the next move, and he believes the Fed will not lose its independence and advised the next Fed chair to stay away from politics [2] - As of the end of 2025, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity reached 3.89 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.2 billion kilowatts, an increase of 35.4%; wind power installed capacity was 640 million kilowatts, an increase of 22.9% [2] - Multiple real estate companies confirmed that they are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "three red lines" indicators monthly. However, some troubled real estate companies are still required to regularly report financial indicators such as asset-liability ratio to the special task force of the city where their headquarters are located [2] - US President Trump threatened Iran again, saying that the next strike on Iran will be more severe. He said a large fleet is heading to Iran and is ready to quickly fulfill its mission. In response, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said that Iran's armed forces are on high alert and will respond quickly and decisively to any aggression against Iran's territory, airspace, and territorial waters [2] - Futures exchanges tightened risk control. The Shanghai Gold Exchange announced that starting from the closing settlement on January 30, the margin level of the Ag (T+D) contract will be adjusted to 20%, and the daily limit will be adjusted to 19% from the next trading day. The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the daily limit and trading margin ratio of 10 futures varieties. For gold and silver futures, the daily limit of multiple contracts was adjusted to 16%, and the trading margin ratios for hedging and general positions were adjusted to 17% and 18% respectively [3] 2. Sector Performance - **Key Focus**: Urea, lithium carbonate, gold, asphalt, plastic [4] - **Night Session Performance**: Non-metallic building materials rose 1.75%, precious metals rose 39.90%, coal, coke, and steel ore rose 8.17%, energy rose 2.31%, chemicals rose 9.22%, grains rose 1.00%, agricultural and sideline products rose 2.44%, oilseeds and fats rose 7.71%, soft commodities rose 2.33%, and non-ferrous metals rose 25.17% [4][5] 3. Sector Positions - The report shows the changes in the positions of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, Wind chemicals, Wind energy, Wind coal, coke, and steel ore, Wind non-ferrous metals, Wind commodity composites, Wind soft commodities, Wind oilseeds and fats, Wind precious metals, and Wind non-metallic building materials [6] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily % Change | Monthly % Change | Year-to-Date % Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 0.27 | 4.60 | 4.60 | | | SSE 50 | 0.27 | 0.97 | 0.97 | | | CSI 300 | 0.26 | 1.90 | 1.90 | | | CSI 500 | 0.61 | 15.21 | 15.21 | | | S&P 500 | -0.01 | 1.94 | 1.94 | | | Hang Seng Index | 2.58 | 8.57 | 8.57 | | | German DAX | -0.29 | 1.36 | 1.36 | | | Nikkei 225 | 0.05 | 6.00 | 6.00 | | | UK FTSE 100 | -0.52 | 2.25 | 2.25 | | Fixed Income | 10-Year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.05 | 0.32 | 0.32 | | | 5-Year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.10 | | | 2-Year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.01 | -0.06 | -0.06 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index, WTI Crude Oil | 0.00, 1.81 | 6.29, 10.47 | 6.29, 10.47 | | | London Spot Gold | 4.51 | 25.37 | 25.37 | | | LME Copper | 0.62 | 4.72 | 4.72 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 2.40 | 48.37 | 48.37 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.61 | -1.95 | -1.95 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 9.36 | 9.36 | [7] 5. Stock Market Risk Preference and Major Commodity Trends - The report presents the trends of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME 3-month copper, gold-oil ratio, copper-gold ratio, Wind All A (excluding finance and petroleum and petrochemicals), risk premium, and futures prices of CBOT soybeans and corn [8]