受美国股市下跌影响，美元指数周五在月末交易中回落至基本持平水平。美元抹去了在美国1月生产者 价格指数升幅超预期后的涨幅。 彭博美元即期指数在抹去不足0.2%的涨幅后接近持平，该指数2月基本持平。 美国1月PPI环比上涨0.5%，高于0.3%的预期；核心指标上涨0.8%，也高于0.3%的预期。 该报告"可能无助于提振偏弱的股市风险偏好情绪，"丰业银行首席外汇策略师Shaun Osborne表示。"过 去几个月核心价格指标明显走高的趋势越来越难以忽视"。 国际原子能机构核查人员称伊朗在早前遭到轰炸的铀浓缩设施开展持续且无法解释的活动，这可能使与 美国围绕德黑兰核计划的谈判变得更加复杂。 基准10年期美国国债收益率下跌4个基点至3.96%，在PPI数据公布后仍扩大跌势；美国主要股指扩大跌 幅。 加元在加拿大逊于预期的经济数据公布后仍延续涨势。数据显示加拿大第四季度GDP折年率下降 0.6%。 美元/加元下跌0.4%至1.3629，短期上行阻力位在50日移动均线1.3714。 欧元/美元上涨0.2%至1.1819，本周上涨0.3%，但2月下跌0.3%。 法国通胀增速超出预期，西班牙通胀也意外加速，这支持欧洲央行关于无 ...

预计国内经济将继续保持增长势头，通胀率预计将略有上升，但仍将保持在目标水平附近的平稳轨道 上。 关于金融稳定，必须对首尔及其周边地区的房价风险、家庭债务风险以及汇率波动的影响保持谨慎。 委员会将制定政策决定，支持经济增长复苏，同时密切监测国内外政策环境的变化及其对通胀动态和金 融稳定发展的影响。 据韩国央行的声明，其货币政策委员会将"继续实施货币政策，以在中期内将消费者价格通胀稳定在目 标水平，同时密切关注经济增长并维护金融稳定"。 由于通胀预计将保持在目标水平附近稳定，经济增长预计将继续以高于预期的速度改善，但金融稳定风 险依然存在；政策委员会认为，在评估国内外政策环境发展的同时，维持当前的基准利率水平是合适 的。 关于金融稳定，必须对首尔及其周边地区的房价风险、家庭债务风险以及汇率波动的影响保持谨慎。 委员会将制定政策决定，支持经济增长复苏，同时密切监测国内外政策环境的变化及其对通胀动态和金 融稳定发展的影响。 责任编辑：于健 SF069 责任编辑：于健 SF069 据韩国央行的声明，其货币政策委员会将"继续实施货币政策，以在中期内将消费者价格通胀稳定在目 标水平，同时密切关注经济增长并维护金融稳定"。 ...

韩国央行还将今年韩国经济增长预期上调至2%，理由是出口强劲和私人消费复苏。 韩国央行此次上调后的预期较去年11月发布的1.8%的预期提高了0.2个百分点。 责任编辑：于健 SF069 韩国央行周四维持基准利率在2.5%不变，理由是经济增长势头强于预期，强调在房地产市场波动和本 币走弱的情况下保持金融稳定。 韩国央行此次上调预期较去年11月发布的1.8%的预期提高了0.2个百分点。 韩国央行周四维持基准利率在2.5%不变，理由是经济增长势头强于预期，强调在房地产市场波动和本 币走弱的情况下保持金融稳定。 韩国央行此次上调预期较去年11月发布的1.8%的预期提高了0.2个百分点。 鉴于乐观的经济前景，韩国央行维持基准利率在2.5%不变，强调在房地产市场波动和本币走弱的情况 下保持金融稳定。 这是韩国央行连续第六次会议维持利率不变，符合市场预期。 自 2024 年 10 月起，韩国央行已将基准利率累计下调 100 个基点，从 3.5%降至当前水平，旨在促进经 济增长，同时自 2025 年 5 月以来一直维持利率不变。 韩国央行还将今年韩国经济增长预期上调至2%，理由是出口强劲和私人消费复苏。 韩国央行此次上调后的预 ...

韩国央行维持基准利率不变，因为持续存在的金融稳定风险和强劲的出口让政策制定者有更多时间权衡 下一步。韩国央行周四将7天期回购利率维持在2.5%不变，延续了自去年7月起按兵不动的政策。此 前，自2024年10月以来，韩国央行已四度降息。这项决定符合预期。行长李昌镛计划于周四晚些时候向 记者通报情况，预计届时他将详细阐述政策前景以及央行决策单位如何看待出口强劲与国内需求疲软之 间的平衡。 责任编辑：王永生 韩国央行维持基准利率不变，因为持续存在的金融稳定风险和强劲的出口让政策制定者有更多时间权衡 下一步。韩国央行周四将7天期回购利率维持在2.5%不变，延续了自去年7月起按兵不动的政策。此 前，自2024年10月以来，韩国央行已四度降息。这项决定符合预期。行长李昌镛计划于周四晚些时候向 记者通报情况，预计届时他将详细阐述政策前景以及央行决策单位如何看待出口强劲与国内需求疲软之 间的平衡。 责任编辑：王永生 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Brazil has slightly adjusted its GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 1.8% to 1.82%, while maintaining the growth forecast for 2027 at 1.8% and projecting 2% for both 2028 and 2029 [1] Economic Indicators - The inflation expectation for the nationwide broad consumer price index (IPCA) in 2026 has been revised down from 3.95% to 3.91%, with 2027's expectation remaining at 3.8%, and 3.5% for both 2028 and 2029 [1] - All inflation levels are within the target range set by the National Monetary Council, which has a target value of 3% with a fluctuation margin of 1.5 percentage points [1] Interest Rates - The market anticipates that Brazil's benchmark interest rate will decrease to 12.13% by the end of 2026, down from a previous forecast of 12.25%. The expected rates for 2027 and 2028 are 10.5% and 10%, respectively, with a potential drop to 9.5% by 2029 [1] Exchange Rates - The market expects the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Brazilian real to be 5.45 reais by the end of 2026, increasing to 5.50 reais by the end of 2027 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Israel has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4%, which is higher than the estimated rate of 3.75% [1] Group 1 - The decision to keep the interest rate at 4% indicates a cautious approach by the Bank of Israel in managing monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Indonesia has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.75%, aligning with market expectations and aiming to stabilize the Indonesian rupiah and control inflation within the target range of 2.5%±1% for 2026 and 2027 [1][1][1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The benchmark interest rate has been held steady at 4.75% for five consecutive months [1] - Deposit and loan rates are maintained at 3.75% and 5.50% respectively [1] - The last rate cut occurred in September 2025, marking the current rate as the lowest since 2022 [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - Maintaining the interest rate is deemed necessary for driving economic growth amid high global financial market uncertainty [1] - The Indonesian rupiah strengthened against the US dollar, closing at 16,870 IDR per USD, appreciating by 0.03% after the announcement [1] - There is potential for further rate cuts in the future if inflation remains controlled [1]

Core Viewpoint - The January meeting minutes of the Federal Reserve indicate a clear division among members regarding the future direction of monetary policy, despite a consensus to maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged [1] Group 1: Meeting Outcomes - At the January 28 meeting, 10 members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) supported keeping interest rates steady, while 2 members advocated for a 25 basis point cut [1] - Some officials believe that if inflation declines as expected, further rate cuts would be appropriate [1] Group 2: Future Guidance - Several officials expressed that maintaining rates unchanged for a period is suitable as the FOMC evaluates the latest data [1] - A number of officials support using a "two-way" description in forward guidance to indicate that rates may be raised if inflation remains above target levels [1] Group 3: Inflation Concerns - Most officials warned that the process of bringing inflation down to the 2% target may be "slower and more uneven" than generally anticipated [1] - The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for March 17-18 [1]

格隆汇2月18日丨周三公布的官方数据显示，英国1月份的CPI年率从12月份的3.4%降至3.0%，基本符合 预期。而英国央行本月早些时候预计，整体通胀率将降至2.9%。当前，英国的通胀率高于美国和欧元 区。1月份，美国和欧元区的通胀率分别为2.4%和1.7%。投资者预计，在2月份以微弱优势投票决定维 持利率不变后，央行将在3月份的下次会议上将基准利率降至3.5%，尽管部分政策制定者仍对潜在通胀 压力感到担忧。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's economy showed only slight growth in Q4 2025, reversing a significant contraction from the previous quarter, which supports Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's rationale for implementing aggressive fiscal spending policies [1] Economic Performance - Japan's real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 0.2% in the three months ending December, falling short of economists' median forecast of 1.6% [1] - Consumer spending, the largest component of GDP, increased by 0.1%, indicating weak domestic demand as households continue to cope with inflation exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% target for four consecutive years [1] - Capital spending rose by 0.2%, reflecting some investment activity despite overall economic challenges [1] Economic Recovery Insights - The data released on February 16 highlights the uneven nature of economic recovery, with growth lacking strong driving forces aside from one-off factors [1] - Signs of economic weakness are unlikely to deter the Bank of Japan from raising the benchmark interest rate later in 2026 [1]