1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current gold price shows a sideways trend. In the context of the US - Iran war, the sharp rise in oil prices boosts market inflation expectations and makes the market re - evaluate the US economy's ability to withstand energy shocks. The US Q4 2025 GDP was significantly revised down to 0.7%, partly due to the government shutdown, but consumer resilience remains. In January 2026, the PCE and core PCE data were 2.8% and 3.1% year - on - year respectively, still significantly higher than the Fed's 2% policy target, with the core PCE data reaching a one - year high. Against the background of rising energy prices, price upward pressure may intensify. The upcoming FOMC meeting is likely to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged and maintain a data - dependent decision - making framework without presetting future policy paths. In the short term, precious metal prices are difficult to break out of the range. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 1050 - 1160 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 18700 - 22300 yuan/kilogram [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Precious Metal Prices**: Shanghai Gold fell 0.16% to 1114.36 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver fell 1.88% to 20088.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold fell 0.04% to 5006.30 US dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver fell 0.84% to 79.25 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.20%, and the US dollar index was 99.55 [2]. - **Economic Data**: The US Q4 2025 GDP was significantly revised down to 0.7%, partly due to the government shutdown. In January 2026, the US PCE price index rose 2.8% year - on - year, the core PCE rose to 3.1% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month, still significantly higher than the Fed's 2% policy target. The one - year inflation expectation in March was stable at 3.4%, and the long - term expectation slightly dropped from 3.3% to 3.2% [2]. - **Geopolitical Events**: Iranian officials were killed in an air strike. US President Trump was angry that his allies were reluctant to participate in the escort operation in the Strait of Hormuz, criticized the UK and French leaders, and said that the issue of the US withdrawing from NATO was worth considering [3]. 3.2 Key Data of Gold and Silver - **COMEX Gold**: The open interest increased by 1.02% to 41.40 million lots, and the inventory decreased by 0.49% to 1003 tons. The LBMA gold closing price decreased by 0.99% to 4994.85 US dollars/ounce. The SHFE gold closing price decreased by 0.19% to 1116.20 yuan/gram, the trading volume decreased by 32.08% to 23.80 million lots, the open interest decreased by 0.43% to 31.03 million lots, the inventory decreased by 0.10% to 105.32 tons, and the settled funds decreased by 0.62% to 554.23 billion yuan. The AuT + D trading volume decreased by 23.82% to 39.20 tons, and the open interest decreased by 2.08% to 229.93 tons [6]. - **COMEX Silver**: The open interest increased by 1.88% to 11.55 million lots, and the inventory decreased by 0.50% to 10510 tons. The LBMA silver closing price decreased by 5.68% to 78.95 US dollars/ounce. The SHFE silver closing price increased by 0.03% to 20308.00 yuan/kilogram, the trading volume decreased by 27.41% to 88.84 million lots, the open interest decreased by 1.08% to 47.40 million lots, the inventory increased by 6.97% to 353.76 tons, and the settled funds decreased by 1.05% to 259.88 billion yuan. The AgT + D trading volume decreased by 40.16% to 172.51 tons, and the open interest increased by 0.02% to 2887.258 tons [6]. 3.3 ETF Holdings - **Gold ETFs**: The iShare US gold holding decreased by 0.29% to 485.73 tons; the GBS UK, SGBS Switzerland holdings remained unchanged; the PHAU UK holding decreased by 0.03% to 53.81 tons; the GOLD UK holding decreased by 0.08% to 29.96 tons [63]. - **Silver ETFs**: The SLV US and PSLV Canada, CEF Canada silver holdings remained unchanged; the ETPMAG Australia silver holding decreased by 0.41% to 483.10 tons. The closing price of silver ETFs decreased by 2.13% to 71.66 US dollars, the settled funds increased by 1.83% to 396.80 billion US dollars, and the trading volume decreased by 11.95% to 3274.82 million shares [63].

Report Information - Report Title: "Floating-rate Bonds Panorama: Theoretical Pricing and Practical Applications of Floating-rate Bonds" - Report Date: March 13, 2026 - Analyst: Liu Lu, Zheng Zichen Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Views - Floating-rate bonds have a relatively small market size and low liquidity, with a current stock of about 0.87 trillion yuan, accounting for only 0.44% of the overall bond market. Their liquidity is significantly weaker than that of similar fixed-rate bonds [2][9]. - The theoretical pricing of floating-rate bonds is based on the DCF model, assuming that the benchmark interest rate remains unchanged after the valuation date. The price does not include market expectations for future benchmark interest rate changes, making them weaker in bull markets and more resilient in bear markets [2][40]. - In reality, the discount rate of floating-rate bonds is often anchored to fixed-rate bonds of the same term, with a liquidity premium of about 10BP. The floating-rate bond - fixed-rate bond spread can be used as a leading indicator of benchmark interest rate changes [3][42]. - When considering the layout of floating-rate bonds in 2026, for those anchored to LPR, their defensive properties are relatively weak due to potential interest rate cuts. For those anchored to DR007, they have stronger defensive properties, especially when there is an expectation of tightening liquidity [3][59]. Summary by Directory PART1: Floating-rate Bonds - An Overview - **Basic Definition**: Floating-rate bonds have a coupon rate composed of a "benchmark interest rate + fixed spread". The benchmark interest rate is usually a money market interest rate indicator, which is adjusted at the beginning of each interest - accruing period, while the fixed spread is determined at issuance and remains unchanged during the bond's tenure [6]. - **Market Scale**: From 1995 - 2025, floating - rate bonds in China went through three development stages: the start - up stage (1995 - 2002), the expansion stage (2003 - 2013), and the mature and fluctuating stage (2014 - 2025). As of February 23, 2026, the stock of floating - rate bonds accounted for only 0.44% of the overall bond market [9]. - **Liquidity**: The liquidity of floating - rate bonds is generally low, significantly weaker than that of similar fixed - rate bonds. For example, in December 2025, the monthly turnover rate of the most active floating - rate bond was only 58.7%, far lower than that of the most active fixed - rate bond at 1271.7% [13]. - **Bond Types**: The issuance of floating - rate bonds in China has long been dominated by policy - financial bonds, with other types participating intermittently. Currently, policy - financial bonds account for over 75% of the stock of floating - rate bonds, followed by commercial bank bonds at about 14% [16][17]. - **Benchmark Interest Rates**: The benchmark interest rates for floating - rate bonds have evolved over time. Currently, DR007 and LPR are the dominant benchmarks, accounting for over 93% of the stock, with DR007 at 57.23% and LPR at 36.23% [24]. - **Maturity Structure**: The issuance term of floating - rate bonds has been shortening. Currently, 1 - 3 - year bonds are the mainstream, accounting for about 85% of the stock [28]. PART2: Theoretical Pricing Mechanism of Floating - rate Bonds - **Pricing Formula**: The valuation of floating - rate bonds is based on the DCF model. To avoid predicting future benchmark interest rates, it is generally assumed that the benchmark interest rate remains unchanged after the valuation date. The pricing formulas of the China Foreign Exchange Trade System and the ChinaBond Valuation Center are basically the same in principle [34][35][36]. - **Impact of Benchmark Interest Rate Fluctuations**: Benchmark interest rate fluctuations have a more significant impact on fixed - rate bonds than on floating - rate bonds. Floating - rate bonds tend to be weaker in bull markets and more resilient in bear markets [38][39][40]. PART3: Real - world Pricing and Application of Floating - rate Bonds - **Pricing with Market Expectations**: In reality, the pricing of floating - rate bonds often includes some market expectations. The discount rate is usually anchored to fixed - rate bonds of the same term, and the floating - rate bond - fixed - rate bond spread can indicate market expectations of interest rate cuts [42]. - **Liquidity Premium**: The valuation yield of floating - rate bonds is generally higher than that of fixed - rate bonds of the same term, with a liquidity premium of about 10BP [44]. - **Indicator of Interest Rate Cuts**: The floating - rate bond - fixed - rate bond spread can be used as a leading indicator of benchmark interest rate changes. An increase in the spread indicates rising market expectations of interest rate cuts [46]. - **Annual Performance**: The conclusion that floating - rate bonds are weaker in bull markets and more resilient in bear markets is generally supported by their annual performance from 2011 - 2025 [48]. - **High - frequency Performance**: From a high - frequency perspective, the combination of changes in the yield to maturity and the benchmark interest rate has different effects on the price of floating - rate bonds. When the benchmark interest rate is stable, the advantages of floating - rate bonds over fixed - rate bonds are not obvious. Floating - rate bonds have defensive properties when the benchmark interest rate is rising and perform weaker when it is falling [50][52][55]. - **2026 Investment Considerations**: For floating - rate bonds anchored to LPR, their defensive properties are relatively weak in 2026 due to potential interest rate cuts. For those anchored to DR007, they have stronger defensive properties, especially when there is an expectation of tightening liquidity [59].

Group 1 - The US dollar index fell to a near-flat level due to a decline in the US stock market, erasing gains from a stronger-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) report [1][3] - The January PPI increased by 0.5% month-on-month, exceeding the 0.3% expectation, while the core PPI rose by 0.8%, also above the forecast [1][3] - The report may not help improve the weak risk appetite in the stock market, as noted by Shaun Osborne, Chief Foreign Exchange Strategist at Scotiabank [1][3] Group 2 - The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield fell by 4 basis points to 3.96%, continuing to decline after the PPI data release, while major US stock indices also extended their losses [4] - The Canadian dollar continued to strengthen despite disappointing economic data, with Canada's Q4 GDP annualized rate declining by 0.6% [4] - The euro against the US dollar rose by 0.2% to 1.1819, with a weekly increase of 0.3%, although it fell by 0.3% in February [4] Group 3 - Inflation rates in France and Spain exceeded expectations, supporting the European Central Bank's stance on not needing further rate cuts [2][4] - The euro against the British pound rose by 0.5% to 0.87893, the highest since December 17 [2][4] - The most hawkish member of the Bank of Japan, Takeda, called for an increase in the benchmark interest rate, indicating a shift in Japan's previously stagnant inflation trend [2][4]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea's monetary policy committee aims to maintain consumer price inflation at target levels while closely monitoring economic growth and financial stability [1][2]. Economic Outlook - Inflation is expected to remain stable around the target level, with economic growth anticipated to improve at a rate higher than expected [1][2]. - The domestic economy is projected to continue its growth momentum, with a slight increase in inflation rates, yet remaining on a stable trajectory near the target level [2]. Financial Stability Concerns - Caution is advised regarding financial stability risks, particularly concerning housing prices in Seoul and surrounding areas, household debt risks, and exchange rate fluctuations [3]. - The committee will make policy decisions to support economic recovery while closely monitoring changes in domestic and international policy environments and their impacts on inflation dynamics and financial stability [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea maintains the benchmark interest rate at 2.5%, citing stronger-than-expected economic growth and the need to ensure financial stability amid real estate market fluctuations and currency depreciation [1][3][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The Bank of Korea has kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.5% for the sixth consecutive meeting, aligning with market expectations [5]. - Since October 2024, the Bank has cumulatively lowered the benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points from 3.5% to the current level to promote economic growth, maintaining this rate since May 2025 [5]. Group 2: Economic Growth Forecast - The Bank of Korea has raised its economic growth forecast for this year to 2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous forecast of 1.8% made in November last year, driven by strong exports and a recovery in private consumption [2][6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2.5%, reflecting ongoing financial stability risks and strong export performance, allowing policymakers more time to assess future actions [1][1]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The Bank of Korea kept the 7-day repurchase rate unchanged at 2.5%, continuing a policy of stability that has been in place since July of the previous year [1][1]. - This decision aligns with market expectations and follows four rate cuts since October 2024 [1][1]. Group 2: Economic Context - The central bank's decision is influenced by the balance between strong exports and weak domestic demand, which will be further elaborated by the bank's governor in a press briefing [1][1].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Brazil has slightly adjusted its GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 1.8% to 1.82%, while maintaining the growth forecast for 2027 at 1.8% and projecting 2% for both 2028 and 2029 [1] Economic Indicators - The inflation expectation for the nationwide broad consumer price index (IPCA) in 2026 has been revised down from 3.95% to 3.91%, with 2027's expectation remaining at 3.8%, and 3.5% for both 2028 and 2029 [1] - All inflation levels are within the target range set by the National Monetary Council, which has a target value of 3% with a fluctuation margin of 1.5 percentage points [1] Interest Rates - The market anticipates that Brazil's benchmark interest rate will decrease to 12.13% by the end of 2026, down from a previous forecast of 12.25%. The expected rates for 2027 and 2028 are 10.5% and 10%, respectively, with a potential drop to 9.5% by 2029 [1] Exchange Rates - The market expects the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Brazilian real to be 5.45 reais by the end of 2026, increasing to 5.50 reais by the end of 2027 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Israel has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4%, which is higher than the estimated rate of 3.75% [1] Group 1 - The decision to keep the interest rate at 4% indicates a cautious approach by the Bank of Israel in managing monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Indonesia has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.75%, aligning with market expectations and aiming to stabilize the Indonesian rupiah and control inflation within the target range of 2.5%±1% for 2026 and 2027 [1][1][1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The benchmark interest rate has been held steady at 4.75% for five consecutive months [1] - Deposit and loan rates are maintained at 3.75% and 5.50% respectively [1] - The last rate cut occurred in September 2025, marking the current rate as the lowest since 2022 [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - Maintaining the interest rate is deemed necessary for driving economic growth amid high global financial market uncertainty [1] - The Indonesian rupiah strengthened against the US dollar, closing at 16,870 IDR per USD, appreciating by 0.03% after the announcement [1] - There is potential for further rate cuts in the future if inflation remains controlled [1]

Core Viewpoint - The January meeting minutes of the Federal Reserve indicate a clear division among members regarding the future direction of monetary policy, despite a consensus to maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged [1] Group 1: Meeting Outcomes - At the January 28 meeting, 10 members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) supported keeping interest rates steady, while 2 members advocated for a 25 basis point cut [1] - Some officials believe that if inflation declines as expected, further rate cuts would be appropriate [1] Group 2: Future Guidance - Several officials expressed that maintaining rates unchanged for a period is suitable as the FOMC evaluates the latest data [1] - A number of officials support using a "two-way" description in forward guidance to indicate that rates may be raised if inflation remains above target levels [1] Group 3: Inflation Concerns - Most officials warned that the process of bringing inflation down to the 2% target may be "slower and more uneven" than generally anticipated [1] - The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for March 17-18 [1]