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CHINA LIFE(2628.HK):3QNET EARNINGS ALMOST DOUBLED ON A HIGH BASE
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-04 19:58
Core Viewpoint - China Life reported strong 3Q earnings with net profit reaching RMB 126.9 billion, a 92% YoY increase, significantly outperforming peers and driven by both insurance service results and investment gains [1] Financial Performance - 3Q25 net profit nearly doubled YoY, lifting 9M25 results up by 61% YoY to RMB 167.8 billion, close to the mid-point of profit alert [1] - Total investment income grew 41% YoY to RMB 369 billion in 9M25, with a 73% YoY increase in 3Q25 [1] - NBV increased by 41.8% like-for-like in 9M25, with expectations that 3Q NBV could have more than doubled due to a 53% increase in FYP [2] Insurance Service Results - Insurance service expenses dropped 20% YoY to RMB 95.7 billion in 9M25, with a significant 79% reduction in 3Q due to rising interest rates [3] - The increase in China's 10YR government bond yield by 22.7bps to 1.88% likely reduced liability costs and improved earnings sensitivity to interest rate movements [3] Valuation and Estimates - The stock is trading at 0.4x FY25E P/EV and 1.0x FY25E P/B, with revised FY25-27E EPS estimates of RMB 6.03/4.41/4.95 reflecting strong profitability [4] - Target price raised to HK$31, implying 0.5x FY25E P/EV [4]