保险行业十五五规划
Search documents
2026年保险行业策略报告:高弹性标签助力板块破圈,看好资负两端改善趋势-20251118
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-11-18 06:53
Core Insights - The insurance sector is characterized by a "high elasticity" label, with a significant profit increase driven by investment performance, as evidenced by a 68% year-on-year profit growth in Q3 2025, with investment performance contributing 79% of the pre-tax profit increment for the first three quarters [3][11][12] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes strong rule of law, strict regulation, risk mitigation, and development promotion, indicating a strategic focus on enhancing the legal framework and regulatory environment for the insurance industry [3][27][28] - The ongoing "anti-involution" policy is expected to boost dividend insurance, while property insurance is undergoing comprehensive governance to improve high-risk insurance types [3][19][27] - The strategic positioning of insurance assets is evolving, with a notable increase in stock and fund investments by listed insurance companies, projected to reach an additional 875.2 to 943.4 billion yuan in A-shares from 2025 to 2027 [3][11][19] - The insurance sector's valuation recovery is anticipated to continue, with recommendations to focus on undervalued, high-elasticity stocks such as China Life, Ping An, and others [3][19][21] Review of Performance - The insurance sector index has risen by 13.5% since the beginning of the year, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.1 percentage points [6][10] - In Q3 2025, the total net profit of listed insurance companies reached 426 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.5%, with significant contributions from investment performance [11][12][19] Policy Outlook - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines key directions for the insurance industry, focusing on high-quality development, technological independence, and comprehensive reform [24][28] - The regulatory environment is expected to remain stringent, with a focus on risk mitigation and the promotion of sustainable growth in the insurance sector [27][31] Liability and Asset Management - The "anti-involution" policy is driving a shift towards dividend insurance, while property insurance is seeing a rationalization of competition [3][19][27] - The strategic focus on asset allocation is expected to enhance the investment capabilities of insurance funds, with a projected increase in equity market allocations [3][11][19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a focus on undervalued, high-elasticity stocks within the insurance sector, highlighting companies such as China Life and Ping An as key investment opportunities [3][19][21]