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中无人机(688297):采购计划延后影响业绩,25年需求或迎来较大反转
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-04-07 04:12
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 39.48 CNY [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue for 2024, achieving 690 million CNY, a year-over-year decrease of 74.3%, and a net profit of -50 million CNY compared to 300 million CNY in the previous year. This decline is attributed to changes in market demand, adjustments in the domestic market, and delays in procurement plans from key customers [1][2]. - The company anticipates a recovery in demand by 2025, aligning with the conclusion of the "14th Five-Year Plan," and aims for significant growth in operational scale while focusing on "high-quality development" [1][3]. - The gross margin for the company's unmanned systems products improved significantly, reaching 32.0% for the year, an increase of 13.10 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to higher margins in unmanned systems products and services [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 320 million CNY, down 76.5% year-over-year, with a net profit of 30 million CNY, a decrease of 51.7% [1]. - The company’s R&D expenses increased by 21% year-over-year, reflecting a commitment to enhancing research and development capabilities [2]. - The company’s contract liabilities surged by 412% compared to the beginning of the year, indicating a significant increase in customer prepayments [2]. Future Outlook - The company has outlined a "Quality Improvement and Efficiency Enhancement" action plan for 2025, projecting a substantial increase in transactions with related parties, indicating a potential recovery in downstream demand [3]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 3.287 billion CNY, 4.446 billion CNY, and 5.823 billion CNY, respectively, with net profit estimates of 299 million CNY, 398 million CNY, and 489 million CNY [4][5].