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信用资产价值重估
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信用策略系列:信用资产价值重估之路
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-10-09 07:46
Group 1 - The report highlights that since July, long-term interest rates have been fluctuating upwards, influenced by macroeconomic narratives and regulatory factors, leading to changes in institutional behavior and trading friction, resulting in a structural resilience in certain credit varieties while others have experienced significant declines [1][10] - In the third quarter, the credit market showed structural resilience and significant declines in specific varieties, with short-term credit demonstrating relative stability, with yield increases mostly within 10 basis points, while long-end perpetual bonds saw yield increases exceeding 30 basis points, indicating a notable drop compared to standard bonds [12][13] - The report anticipates that if new regulations on public fund sales are implemented and the floating profits from wealth management products are fully released, there may be a revaluation of credit assets, with potential trading friction between exiting trading positions and entering allocation positions [3][10] Group 2 - The report notes a shift in trading behavior, with wealth management products increasing their net purchases of credit bonds, reflecting the emerging value of credit yields post-adjustment, while the net purchases of certificates of deposit have decreased [2][3] - The report emphasizes that the fourth quarter and the year 2026 will be critical for the credit bond market, as the challenges faced by institutional liabilities could drive a revaluation of credit asset values, particularly if the new public fund sales regulations are enacted [3][4] - The report suggests that the pricing center for perpetual bonds may rise due to the revaluation of credit attributes, and short-term credit may see a support level shift from 1.8% to 2.0% as the market adjusts to the new regulatory environment [4][5]