证券研究报告 固收 2025 年 11 月 23 日│中国内地 利率周报 华泰研究 张继强 研究员 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 仇文竹* 研究员 SAC No. S0570521050002 qiuwenzhu@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 吴宇航* 研究员 SAC No. S0570521090004 wuyuhang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 欧阳琳* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525070010 ouyanglin@htsc.com "五组利率比价关系"的启示 朱逸敏* 联系人 SAC No. S0570124070133 zhuyimin@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 央行政策利率和市场利率的关系 央行政策利率与市场利率的关系主要关注两个维度：1）OMO→资金利率→ 同业存单/短端国债利率： 5 月以来，DR001 资金利率回到政策利率附近波 动。向后看，央行几大目标更为均衡，资金面大概率延续平稳，货币市场利 率与 OMO 利差预计稳定且延续低位。2）OMO→ ...

—— 信用利差周度跟踪 20251122 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 11 月 22 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 利率平稳信用窄幅波动 民企地产利差继续抬升 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | 朱金保 固定收益分析师 执业编号：S1500524080002 联系电话：+86 15850662789 联系电话：+86 15850662789 邮 箱： zhujinbao@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 3利率平稳信用窄幅波动 民企地产利差继续抬升 [Table_ReportDate] 2 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 增量资金驱动，3-5Y 普信债相对吸引力凸显 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近期债市震荡中信用债表现分化，3-5 年期普通信用债的配置吸引力相对凸显。核心驱动在于， 12 月将迎来摊余成本法债基的开放高峰期，这批规模超千亿的增量资金因其负债端特性和运作 规则，天然偏好配置剩余期限相匹配、现金流稳定的高等级普信债，从而对其估值构成支撑。 相比之下，二永债虽存在补涨行情，但其波动较大且受后续基金赎回费率新规等潜在政策扰动。 投资策略上，建议以票息策略为核心，并可重点关注 3-4 年期普信债的骑乘收益机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 增量资金驱动，3-5Y 普信债相对吸引力凸显 [Table_Summary2] 11 月 10 日-11 月 14 日，债市步入定 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, interest - rate bonds fluctuated weakly, while credit bonds showed differentiated trends. High - grade credit bonds also weakened but with smaller declines. Short - duration medium - and low - grade bonds weakened, but the yields of 3 - 5Y bonds were still falling. The trading sentiment in the bond market cooled down. The central bank resumed trading in treasury bonds, but the scale was lower than expected. The strengthening of the equity market in the second half of the week made the bond market weaker. Ultra - long - term credit bonds also weakened, with only the yields of the least liquid ultra - long urban investment bonds showing a reverse recovery [2][10]. - Public funds have shown a significant trend of chasing longer durations for two consecutive weeks, mainly focusing on 3 - 5Y bonds. Other institutions such as wealth management and insurance have relatively stable demand for credit bonds. The behavior of public funds chasing longer durations may continue in the short term, driven by the concentrated opening of amortized cost method funds and the improving performance of credit ETF products [3][29][32]. - The "volatility amplifier" characteristic of Tier 2 capital bonds of banks (Two - Yong bonds) reappeared, with larger declines than general credit bonds and interest - rate bonds of the same duration. There is a small window period for short - term trading of Two - Yong bonds [4][16]. - In terms of strategies, it is still recommended to select bonds from weakly - qualified urban investment bonds with 3 - 5Y durations. It is not advisable to chase ultra - long - term credit bonds for short - term trading, but there is a small window period for short - term trading of Two - Yong bonds [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Fund's Two Marginal Changes in Chasing Duration - **Bond Market Performance** - Interest - rate bonds fluctuated weakly last week, and credit bonds showed differentiation. From November 3 to 7, 2025, the yields of 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 4Y, and 5Y treasury bonds increased by 2.2BP, 3.2BP, 3.0BP, 2.7BP, and 2.1BP respectively. The yields of AAA medium - term notes of the same duration increased by 1.2BP, 2.3BP, decreased by 0.5BP, increased by 1.6BP, and 0.2BP respectively. AA + medium - term notes' yields increased by 1.2BP, 0.3BP, decreased by 0.5BP, decreased by 2.4BP, and decreased by 2.8BP respectively [10][11]. - Ultra - long - term credit bonds weakened, with only the yields of the least liquid ultra - long urban investment bonds recovering. The yields of 10Y AAA/AA + medium - term notes increased by 1.01BP and 0.01BP respectively, the yields of 10Y AAA/AA + urban investment bonds increased by 0.86BP and decreased by 0.14BP respectively, the yield of 10Y AAA - bank secondary capital bonds increased by 9.29BP, and the yield of 10Y treasury bonds increased by 5.32BP [10]. - The "volatility amplifier" characteristic of Two - Yong bonds reappeared, with larger declines than general credit bonds and interest - rate bonds of the same duration. The yields of 1 - 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y AAA - bank secondary capital bonds increased by 2.94BP, 5.39BP, 4.35BP, 4.23BP, 4.16BP, 1.30BP, and 0.64BP respectively. The part of the curve above 4Y is still 30BP - 50BP away from the lowest yield point since 2025 [16]. - **Curve Shape** - The steepness of the 1 - 2Y and 2 - 3Y segments of all - grade bonds is the highest, and the steepness of the 3 - 5Y segment of low - grade bonds is also relatively high, but it has been decreasing for two consecutive weeks. For example, for AA + medium - term notes, the slopes of the 1 - 2Y, 2 - 3Y, and 3 - 5Y segments are 0.0909, 0.1109, and 0.0605 respectively; for AA urban investment bonds, the slopes are 0.1231, 0.1236, and 0.0953 respectively [12]. - **Historical Quantiles of Yields and Credit Spreads** - The protection margin of general credit bonds within 5Y is thin, and the cost - effectiveness of credit bonds is currently not high. From November 3 to 7, 2025, the yields of 1Y - AAA, 3Y - AAA, 5Y - AAA, 1Y - AA +, 3Y - AA +, 5Y - AA +, 1Y - AA, and 3Y - AA medium - and short - term notes are at the 12.52%, 24.62%, 23.75%, 8.42%, 18.57%, 17.27%, 5.39%, and 9.50% levels since 2024 respectively. The historical quantiles of credit spreads are at the 2.64%, 0.22%, 2.20%, 1.98%, 0.22%, 2.64%, 0.66%, and 6.40% levels respectively [14]. - **Trading Activity** - For Two - Yong bonds, the buying power was strong in the first half of the week but weakened significantly in the second half. From November 3 to 7, the proportion of transactions below the valuation was 100.00%, 100.00%, 100.00%, 2.50%, and 12.50% respectively; the average trading durations were 6.95 years, 6.67 years, 6.51 years, 0.91 years, and 0.85 years respectively. The trading volume below the valuation was generally low, with only 2 transactions having a margin of more than 4BP, and the rest within 3BP [18]. - For ultra - long - term credit bonds, the selling volume increased in the second half of the week, and the focus of discounted transactions was on weakly - qualified urban investment bonds. From November 3 to 7, the proportion of discounted transactions was 5.00%, 2.50%, 5.00%, 85.00%, and 35.00% respectively. The discount margin was generally within 4BP, and about 15% of the transactions had a margin of more than 4BP, mainly weakly - qualified urban investment bonds [23]. - The trading activity of ultra - long - term credit bonds decreased marginally. From November 3 to 7, the proportion of transactions below the valuation was 32.50%, 52.50%, 57.50%, 10.00%, and 20.00% respectively. About 47% of the transactions below the valuation had a margin of 4BP or more, mainly 2 - 5Y AA(2) and AA weakly - qualified urban investment bonds, whose liquidity has improved recently [25]. - **Institutional Behavior** - Public funds have shown a significant trend of chasing longer durations for two consecutive weeks, mainly focusing on 3 - 5Y bonds. Last week, funds net - bought 181.17 billion yuan of 1 - 3Y credit bonds, 110.48 billion yuan of 3 - 5Y credit bonds, and 31.96 billion yuan of 7 - 10Y credit bonds. Wealth management's buying of credit bonds slowed down, mainly net - buying 25.66 billion yuan of 1 - 3Y credit bonds. Insurance's buying of general credit bonds was relatively stable, net - buying 32.65 billion yuan of 1 - 3Y credit bonds and 26.56 billion yuan of 3 - 5Y credit bonds [3][29]. - The behavior of public funds chasing longer durations may continue in the short term. On one hand, the concentrated opening of amortized cost method funds may support the 3 - 5Y credit bond market. The expected opening scale of these funds in the second half of November and December is 328.62 billion yuan and 1,238.55 billion yuan respectively, and the proportion of funds with a closed - end period of more than three years is 80.96% and 65.68% respectively. On the other hand, the improving performance of credit ETF products, especially the second - batch of science and technology innovation ETFs, may also drive public funds to chase longer durations. The cumulative losses of credit market - making ETFs are decreasing, and most science and technology innovation ETFs have achieved positive cumulative net values. The trading duration of credit ETF products has been lengthening recently, with strong buying of 3 - 5Y and over - 5Y component bonds [32][33].

Group 1: Market Trends - The peak period for the opening of amortized bond funds is from November 2025 to the first half of 2026, with a total opening scale exceeding 400 billion yuan[12] - In December 2025, the opening scale will reach 107.7 billion yuan, and in March 2026, it will exceed 116 billion yuan, primarily focusing on 3-year and 5-year products[12] - The demand for 3-5 year high-grade credit bonds will continue to be released, maintaining a strong short-term performance[14] Group 2: Fund Allocation Changes - The proportion of credit bonds in amortized bond funds has increased significantly, reaching 14.9% by the end of Q3 2025, up from 1.8% at the end of 2024[13] - Bank wealth management has replaced bank proprietary trading as the core incremental funding source, with holdings in amortized bond funds rising from 17.1 billion yuan to 93 billion yuan, a growth of over 5 times[13] - 84% of the increased funding from wealth management is directed towards products with a closed period of 3 years or less, reinforcing the demand for short- to medium-term credit bonds[13] Group 3: Market Structure Differentiation - The credit bond market is experiencing structural differentiation, with medium- to high-grade credit bonds benefiting significantly, while certain bonds are excluded from the amortized bond fund allocation due to SPPI testing[14] - Long-term credit bonds are less favored due to maturity mismatches and profit-taking by banks, while policy financial bonds are seeing reduced compression dynamics due to the shift towards credit bonds[14] - The overall market is characterized by a notable divergence in performance among different bond types[14]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: "Yield Mostly Declines Slightly, Medium- and Long-Term Credit Spreads Widen Slightly - Weekly Tracking of the Credit Bond Market (2025.11.10 - 2025.11.16)" [2] - Analysts: Huang Weiping, Yang Xuefang, Zhang Jinyuan [3] - Research support: Cao Xuan [3] - Report date: November 16, 2025 [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The primary market shows a decline in the net supply of ordinary credit bonds and secondary and perpetual (two - tier) bank bonds compared to the previous period [4]. - In the secondary market, yields mostly decline slightly, credit spreads generally widen, and 1 - year bonds perform well. The turnover rates of ordinary credit bonds and two - tier bank bonds both decrease [4]. - The bond market enters a policy and data vacuum period. With the unimplemented public offering redemption fee new regulations and the possible continuation of residents' deposit transfer to the equity market, attention should be paid to the coupon value of credit bonds in the volatile market [4]. - In terms of credit strategies, the 1 - 3 - year period still has carry - trade space and cost - effectiveness, and investors can also moderately focus on 3 - 5 - year high - grade bonds, but should remain cautious about extending credit duration [4]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 Primary Market 4.1.1 Ordinary Credit Bonds - Net financing decreases compared to the previous period, and subscription enthusiasm rises. The issuance of industrial bonds and urban investment bonds both decline slightly, and the net financing of urban investment bonds turns negative [4][7][11]. - The net financing of each enterprise nature is positive. The weighted issuance term is 2.98 years, a slight decrease from the previous period. The weighted issuance term of urban investment bonds increases, while that of industrial bonds decreases [16][17]. 4.1.2 Bank Two - Tier Bonds - Five small and medium - sized bank two - tier bonds are issued, and the net financing scale decreases compared to the previous period. The net financing of secondary capital bonds turns positive, while that of perpetual bonds decreases significantly [4][25][27]. 4.2 Secondary Market 4.2.1 Yields and Credit Spreads - Yields mostly decline slightly, and credit spreads, except for 1 - year bonds, generally widen. 3/5/7 - year weak - quality varieties see larger yield declines, while 10 - year AAA - grade ordinary credit bonds have a relatively large upward amplitude in yields [4][35][37]. - In terms of credit spreads, 1 - year bonds, except for medium - and high - grade urban investment bonds, all narrow, with low - grade bonds performing better. 5/7/10 - year medium - and high - grade bonds mostly widen, but the 5 - year AA - grade medium - term note performs best [4]. 4.2.2 Turnover Rate - The turnover rates of ordinary credit bonds and two - tier bank bonds both decrease [4] 4.3存量债分布 - Current yields are mostly distributed within 2.2% [34]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Interest rates are recovering, credit bond yields are generally stable, and credit spreads of high - grade bonds over 3Y are widening. The yields of credit bonds are generally stable, while the yields of government - developed bonds of 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y are declining. Credit spreads of high - grade bonds over 3Y are mostly widening [2][5]. - Most urban investment bond spreads have slightly increased. The credit spreads of external rating AAA and AA+ platforms have generally increased by 2BP and 1BP respectively compared to last week, while the AA platform has generally remained flat [2][9]. - The spreads of industrial bonds have increased overall, and the increase in the spreads of mixed - ownership real - estate bonds is significant. The spreads of central and state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds, mixed - ownership real - estate bonds, and private real - estate bonds have all increased, with the mixed - ownership real - estate bonds having the largest increase [2][20]. - The yields of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have slightly declined, and high - grade varieties are relatively advantageous. The yields of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds of all maturities have slightly decreased, with 3Y perpetual bonds performing strongly and high - grade varieties being more favorable [2][27]. - The excess spreads of 3Y industrial perpetual bonds have declined, and the excess spreads of urban investment perpetual bonds continue to diverge. The excess spreads of industrial AAA 3Y perpetual bonds have decreased, while the excess spreads of urban investment AAA 3Y and 5Y perpetual bonds show different trends [2][31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Interest rates are recovering, credit bond yields are generally stable, and credit spreads of high - grade bonds over 3Y are widening - Yield changes: 1Y government - developed bond yields are flat compared to last week, while 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y yields have decreased by 3BP, 2BP, 2BP, and 1BP respectively. For credit bonds, 1Y yields are flat, 3Y AAA - grade yields increase by 1BP, others decrease by 1BP; 5Y AAA - grade yields are flat, AA+ decreases by 1BP, AA decreases by 3BP, AA - decreases by 8BP; 7Y AAA - grade yields increase by 1BP, others decrease by 1BP; 10Y AAA - grade yields increase by 2BP, others are flat [2][5]. - Credit spread changes: 1Y credit spreads are flat; 3Y AAA - grade credit spreads increase by 4BP, others increase by 2BP; 5Y AA+ and above grade spreads increase by 1 - 2BP, AA grade decreases by 1BP, AA - grade decreases by 6BP; 7 - 10Y credit spreads increase by 1 - 3BP [2][5]. - Rating spread changes: 1Y spreads are flat; 3Y AAA/AA+ spreads decrease by 2BP, others are flat; 5Y AA/AA - grade spreads decrease by 5BP, others decrease by 1 - 2BP; 7Y and 10Y AAA/AA+ rating spreads decrease by 2BP, others are flat [5]. - Maturity spread changes: For AAA grade, 5Y/3Y decreases by 1BP, others increase by 1BP; for AA+ grade, 3Y/1Y decreases by 1BP, 10Y/7Y increases by 1BP, others are flat; for AA grade, 5Y/3Y and 3Y/1Y decrease by 1 - 2BP, others increase by 1 - 2BP [5]. 2. Most urban investment bond spreads have slightly increased - By external rating: The credit spreads of external rating AAA and AA+ platforms have generally increased by 2BP and 1BP respectively compared to last week, while the AA platform has generally remained flat. Among them, most AAA - grade platform spreads increase by 1 - 2BP, with Henan and Yunnan remaining flat; most AA+ - grade platforms are flat or increase by 1BP, with Guizhou, Yunnan, and Tianjin decreasing by 1 - 3BP, Gansu and Inner Mongolia increasing by 2BP; most AA - grade platforms are flat or increase by 1BP, with Shaanxi, Tianjin, Jilin, and Shandong decreasing by 1 - 3BP, Guizhou increasing by 4BP [2][9]. - By administrative level: The credit spreads of provincial and municipal platforms have generally increased by 2BP and 1BP respectively compared to last week, while the county - level platform spreads have remained flat. Most provincial platform spreads increase by 1 - 2BP, with Xinjiang, Anhui, and Zhejiang increasing by 3 - 4BP, Jiangsu increasing by 7BP, Yunnan and Shaanxi remaining flat; most municipal platforms increase by 1BP, with Yunnan decreasing by 1BP, Qinghai remaining flat, Zhejiang increasing by 2BP; most county - level platforms are flat or increase by 1BP, with Shaanxi, Jilin, and Jiangxi decreasing by 1 - 2BP, Guizhou increasing by 3BP [2][17]. 3. The spreads of industrial bonds have increased overall, and the increase in the spreads of mixed - ownership real - estate bonds is significant - Real - estate bonds: The spreads of central and state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds have increased by 1BP, the spreads of mixed - ownership real - estate bonds have increased by 123BP, and the spreads of private real - estate bonds have increased by 14BP. The spreads of Longfor have increased by 20BP, CIFI by 40BP, Midea Real Estate remained flat, and Vanke by 438BP [2][20]. - Other industrial bonds: The spreads of coal bonds of all grades have increased by 0 - 2BP; the spreads of AAA - grade steel bonds have increased by 1BP, AA+ by 5BP; the spreads of AAA - grade chemical bonds have increased by 2BP, AA+ remained flat. The spreads of Shaanxi Coal Industry have increased by 1BP, while the spreads of HBIS and Jinkong Coal Industry have decreased by 1BP [2][20]. 4. The yields of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have slightly declined, and high - grade varieties are relatively advantageous - 1Y: The yields of all grades of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have decreased by 0 - 1BP, and the spreads have compressed similarly [2][27]. - 3Y: The yields of all grades of Tier 2 capital bonds have decreased by 2 - 3BP, and the spreads have increased by 0 - 1BP; the yields of all grades of perpetual bonds have decreased by 3 - 4BP, and the spreads have compressed by 0 - 1BP [2][27]. - 5Y: The yield of AAA - grade Tier 2 capital bonds has decreased by 3BP, and the spread is flat; the yields of other grades of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have decreased by 2BP, and the spreads have increased by 1BP [2][27]. 5. The excess spreads of 3Y industrial perpetual bonds have declined, and the excess spreads of urban investment perpetual bonds continue to diverge - Industrial perpetual bonds: The excess spreads of industrial AAA 3Y perpetual bonds have decreased by 1.38BP to 14.79BP compared to last week, at the 38.88% percentile since 2015; the excess spreads of industrial 5Y perpetual bonds are flat at 12.39BP compared to last week, at the 27.07% percentile since 2015 [2][31]. - Urban investment perpetual bonds: The excess spreads of urban investment AAA 3Y perpetual bonds have decreased by 2.04BP to 5.35BP, at the 5.14% percentile; the excess spreads of urban investment AAA 5Y perpetual bonds have increased by 1.83BP to 10.97BP, at the 17.02% percentile [2][31]. 6. Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - Calculation basis: The overall market credit spreads, commercial bank Tier 2 and perpetual bond spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond Medium - and Short - Term Notes and ChinaBond Perpetual Bonds data, with historical percentiles since the beginning of 2015; the urban investment and industrial bond - related credit spreads are compiled and统计 by the R & D Center of Cinda Securities, with historical percentiles since the beginning of 2015 [36]. - Calculation methods: Industrial and urban investment individual bond credit spreads = individual bond ChinaBond valuation (exercise) - same - maturity government - developed bond yield to maturity (calculated by linear interpolation method), and then the credit spreads of industries or regional urban investments are obtained by arithmetic averaging; bank Tier 2 capital bond/perpetual bond excess spreads = bank Tier 2 capital bond/perpetual bond credit spreads - same - grade and same - maturity bank ordinary bond credit spreads; industrial/urban investment - type perpetual bond excess spreads = industrial/urban investment - type perpetual bond credit spreads - same - grade and same - maturity medium - term note credit spreads [38]. - Sample selection: Both industrial and urban investment bonds select medium - term notes and public corporate bonds as samples, and exclude guaranteed bonds and perpetual bonds. If the remaining maturity of an individual bond is less than 0.5 years or more than 5 years, it is excluded from the statistical sample. Industrial and urban investment bonds use external entity ratings, while commercial banks use ChinaBond implicit debt ratings [38].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The concentrated opening of amortized fixed - term open - end bond funds may directly benefit general credit bonds, and the spread of general credit bonds may decline. After the opening of these funds drives up the price of general credit bonds, the medium - and long - term cost - performance of secondary perpetual bonds will be passively improved, attracting medium - and long - term allocation funds such as annuities and insurance companies, with the market of secondary perpetual bonds lagging behind that of general credit bonds [2][26][27]. - The concentrated opening of amortized fixed - term open - end bond funds may form a strong allocation demand for 3 - 5Y medium - and long - term credit bonds [20][30]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Changes in the Holding Varieties of Amortized Fixed - Term Open - End Bond Funds - Since the beginning of 2024, the proportion of interest - rate bonds (especially policy - financial bonds) held by amortized fixed - term open - end bond funds has significantly decreased, while the proportion of general credit bonds has increased substantially. From 2024Q1 - 2025Q3, the proportion of financial bonds held decreased from 89% to 78% (the proportion of policy - financial bonds decreased from 73% to 61%), and the proportion of credit bonds increased from 2% to 14% [8]. - The proportion of medium - term notes held by amortized fixed - term open - end bond funds has steadily increased. From the perspectives of implicit rating and remaining term, the proportion of credit bonds with an implicit rating of AAA - and above and a remaining term of 3 - 5 years has significantly increased. The proportion of medium - term notes increased from 43% in 2024Q1 to 61% in 2025Q3, the proportion of high - grade bonds increased, and the proportion of credit bonds with a remaining term of 1 year or less decreased from 80% in 2024Q3 to 30% in 2025Q3, while the proportion of 3 - 5Y credit bonds increased to 42% in 2025Q3 [11]. 2. Impact of the Concentrated Opening of Amortized Fixed - Term Open - End Bond Funds - From 2025Q4 - 2026Q2, a round of opening days for amortized fixed - term open - end bond funds will be concentrated. Among the funds with a closed - end period of more than 1 year, 76 funds will open, with a total fund asset value of 7,433 billion yuan. In 2026Q1 and before, 53 funds with a closed - end period of more than 1 year will open [14][15]. - The concentrated opening of these funds may form a strong allocation demand for 3 - 5Y medium - and long - term credit bonds. After the opening days end and the funds enter the closed - end period to start building positions, they may have a relatively strong demand for such bonds [20]. - In terms of variety structure, the concentrated opening may directly benefit general credit bonds, and it is expected that general credit bonds may experience a good spread compression market. The medium - and long - term cost - performance of secondary perpetual bonds will be passively improved, attracting allocation funds [26][27]. - It is estimated that the opening of existing amortized fixed - term open - end bond funds will bring about 119.8 billion yuan of stable allocation funds to the credit bond market, and the funds entering the opening period before 2026Q2 are expected to bring about 51.8 billion yuan [29]. 3. Investment Suggestions - From 2025Q4 - 2026Q2, the concentrated opening of amortized fixed - term open - end bond funds may directly benefit credit bonds matching their closed - end periods, especially 3 - 5Y medium - and long - term credit bonds [30]. - The concentrated opening may directly benefit general credit bonds such as urban investment bonds and industrial bonds. High - grade (AAA - and above) medium - term notes are recommended as key trading targets in the future market [31][32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, interest - rate bonds fluctuated weakly, while credit bonds showed a differentiated trend. High - grade credit bonds also weakened but with smaller declines, and medium - and low - grade short - duration bonds weakened, yet the yields of 3 - 5Y bonds continued to decline. The trading sentiment in the bond market cooled down, and the bond market became weaker as the equity market strengthened in the second half of the week. The market for ultra - long - term credit bonds also weakened, with only the yields of ultra - long - term urban investment bonds with the weakest liquidity recovering inversely [2][10]. - The "volatility amplifier" characteristic of secondary - tier perpetual bonds reappeared, with a larger decline than that of general credit bonds and interest - rate bonds of the same term. The yields of 1 - 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y AAA - bank secondary capital bonds increased by 2.94BP, 5.39BP, 4.35BP, 4.23BP, 4.16BP, 1.30BP, and 0.64BP respectively [3][16]. - Public funds have shown a significant trend of chasing long - duration bonds for two consecutive weeks, mainly focusing on 3 - 5Y bonds. Other institutions such as wealth management and insurance have relatively stable demand for credit bonds. The behavior of public funds chasing long - duration bonds may continue in the short term, influenced by the concentrated opening of amortized - cost - method funds and the improved performance of credit ETF products [3][4][29]. - The strategy still recommends selecting bonds from weakly - qualified urban investment bonds with a 3 - 5Y term. For trading positions, it is not recommended to chase ultra - long - term credit bonds in band operations. However, there is a small window period for band operations of secondary - tier perpetual bonds recently, as the adjustment range of secondary - tier perpetual bonds was relatively large last week, and the yields of medium - and high - grade 4 - 5Y bonds are currently in a relatively safe range after adding points [5][38]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fund's Two Marginal Changes in Chasing Long - Duration Bonds - **Bond Market Performance**: From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the yields of 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 4Y, and 5Y treasury bonds increased by 2.2BP, 3.2BP, 3.0BP, 2.7BP, and 2.1BP respectively. The yields of AAA medium - and short - term notes of the same term increased by 1.2BP, 2.3BP, decreased by 0.5BP, increased by 1.6BP, and 0.2BP respectively. The yields of AA + medium - and short - term notes increased by 1.2BP, 0.3BP, decreased by 0.5BP, 2.4BP, and 2.8BP respectively. The yields of ultra - long - term credit bonds also weakened, except for the inverse recovery of the yields of ultra - long - term urban investment bonds with the weakest liquidity [10][11]. - **Curve Shape**: The steepness of the 1 - 2Y and 2 - 3Y segments of all grades is the highest, and the steepness of the 3 - 5Y segment of low - grade bonds is also relatively high, but it has been decreasing for two consecutive weeks. Taking the yield term structure diagrams of AA + medium - term notes and AA urban investment bonds as examples, the slopes of the 1 - 2Y, 2 - 3Y, and 3 - 5Y segments of AA + medium - term notes are 0.0909, 0.1109, and 0.0605 respectively; those of AA urban investment bonds are 0.1231, 0.1236, and 0.0953 respectively [12]. - **Institutional Behavior**: Public funds have shown a significant trend of chasing long - duration bonds for two consecutive weeks, mainly focusing on 3 - 5Y bonds. Last week, funds net - bought 181.17 billion yuan of 1 - 3Y credit bonds, 110.48 billion yuan of 3 - 5Y credit bonds, and 31.96 billion yuan of 7 - 10Y credit bonds. The buying intensity of wealth management products for credit bonds slowed down last week, mainly net - buying 25.66 billion yuan of 1 - 3Y credit bonds. Insurance companies' buying intensity for general credit bonds has been relatively stable in the past two weeks, net - buying 32.65 billion yuan of 1 - 3Y credit bonds and 26.56 billion yuan of 3 - 5Y credit bonds [3][29]. - **Reasons for Chasing Long - Duration Bonds**: Firstly, affected by the concentrated opening of amortized - cost - method funds, the demand for credit - bond allocation of such funds has increased significantly this year. The scale of funds expected to open in the fourth quarter is large, and the proportion of products with a long - term closed - end period is high, which may support the 3 - 5Y credit - bond market. Secondly, the market of credit ETF products has improved recently, with the net - worth performance improving and the trading duration lengthening, which may also drive public funds to chase long - duration bonds [4][32][33]. 3.2 Secondary - Tier Perpetual Bonds - **Yield Changes**: The "volatility amplifier" characteristic of secondary - tier perpetual bonds reappeared, with a larger decline than that of general credit bonds and interest - rate bonds of the same term. The yields of 1 - 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y AAA - bank secondary capital bonds increased by 2.94BP, 5.39BP, 4.35BP, 4.23BP, 4.16BP, 1.30BP, and 0.64BP respectively. The yields of the part above 4Y are still 30BP - 50BP away from the lowest point since 2025, and the adjustment range is higher than that of the sharp decline at the end of July [3][16]. - **Trading Activity**: In the first half of the week, the buying power was strong, but it weakened significantly in the second half of the week. From November 3 to November 7, the proportion of transactions below the valuation of secondary - tier perpetual bonds was 100.00%, 100.00%, 100.00%, 2.50%, and 12.50% respectively; the average trading duration was 6.95 years, 6.67 years, 6.51 years, 0.91 years, and 0.85 years respectively. The amplitude of transactions below the valuation was generally low last week [18]. 3.3 Ultra - Long - Term Credit Bonds - **Trading Volume and Price**: The selling volume of ultra - long - term credit bonds increased in the second half of last week, and the focus of discounted transactions was on weakly - qualified urban investment bonds. From November 3 to November 7, the proportion of discounted transactions of ultra - long - term credit bonds was 5.00%, 2.50%, 5.00%, 85.00%, and 35.00% respectively. The discount amplitude was generally within 4BP, and about 15% of the discount amplitude was above 4BP, mainly from weakly - qualified urban investment bonds [23]. - **Trading Activity Below Valuation**: The trading activity of ultra - long - term credit bonds below the valuation decreased marginally. From November 3 to November 7, the proportion of transactions below the valuation was 32.50%, 52.50%, 57.50%, 10.00%, and 20.00% respectively. About 47% of the transactions below the valuation had an amplitude of 4BP or more, mainly from 2 - 5Y AA(2) and AA weakly - qualified urban investment bonds, whose liquidity has improved recently [25][27].

Core Viewpoint - Major Chinese banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and China Construction Bank (CCB), have announced their bond issuance plans for 2026, indicating a strong appetite for raising capital through various debt instruments [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Plans - ICBC plans to issue financial bonds up to 488 billion yuan for 2026, an increase of approximately 38 billion yuan from its 2025 issuance plan [2]. - CCB's bond issuance plan includes a total of up to 700 billion yuan, with capital instruments not exceeding 450 billion yuan and TLAC bonds not exceeding 250 billion yuan [2]. - Other state-owned banks, such as Agricultural Bank of China and Postal Savings Bank, are also considering their bond issuance plans for 2026, although specific amounts are yet to be disclosed [1][2]. Group 2: Market Trends and Statistics - As of November 9, 2023, the total bond issuance by commercial banks for the year reached 2.88 trillion yuan, with subordinated and perpetual bonds (referred to as "二永债") accounting for approximately 1.37 trillion yuan [1][4]. - The issuance of subordinated bonds has decreased by about 24.9% year-on-year, while perpetual bonds have seen an increase of 18.4% [4]. - State-owned and joint-stock banks are the primary issuers of subordinated and perpetual bonds, accounting for 81.3% of the total market issuance [4]. Group 3: Investment Trends - Financial bonds, including subordinated and TLAC bonds, are becoming core assets for asset management institutions, driven by an increasing demand for fixed-income products [6]. - The market for financial bonds is now the largest investment segment for non-bank institutions, offering higher market value compared to traditional interest rate bonds [6]. - As of the third quarter of 2025, public funds held 43.6% of the market value of bank ordinary bonds, with significant allocations to subordinated and perpetual bonds [7].