Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The capital market in September 2025 tightened slightly compared to August, but the tightening amplitude was limited compared to the historical average. The central bank's net capital injection was relatively high, and the capital stratification pressure remained low. In October, the capital market may maintain a marginal tightening trend, with the capital center likely to remain stable or rise slightly [2][6] 9 - Month Review: Marginal Tightening Compared to August - **Capital Rate Central Uplift**: In September, the central points of various - term capital rates increased slightly. The operating central points of DR001, DR007, and DR014 rose by 4bp, 1bp, and 3bp respectively. The upward deviation of DR007 from the OMO 7 - day rate widened slightly to 9bp [2][12] - **Limited Tightening Compared to History**: Historically, the deviation of DR007 from the policy rate in September usually widens compared to August. However, in 2025, the tightening amplitude of the capital rate was lower than the historical average since 2016 [2][17] - **High Central Bank Net Investment**: As of the 28th, the central bank's net capital injection in September reached 97.6 billion yuan, second only to September 2023. The capital market showed a different trend from previous years, with an upward trend around the tax period and a slight decline at the end of the month [2][20] - **Increase in Inter - bank Certificate of Deposit Yields**: The central points of inter - bank certificate of deposit yields for various terms increased significantly compared to August. The issuance rates of inter - bank certificates of deposit of various banks also showed an upward trend, indicating some pressure on the liability side of banks before the quarter - end [3][23] - **Low Capital Stratification Pressure**: The R - DR spread remained at a low level. The spread between R001 and DR001 narrowed slightly, while the spread between R007 and DR007 widened slightly, but overall, the stratification pressure was at a historical low [3] 10 - Month Outlook: May Maintain a Marginal Tightening Trend - **Historical Experience of Horizontal Movement of Shibor 3M**: Since May 2025, Shibor 3M has been horizontally moving for nearly 90 days and started to rise at the end of September. Historically, after horizontal movement, capital rates mostly declined, but the two instances of decline within 30 days after horizontal movement both occurred in October [4] - **Seasonal Pattern in October**: Seasonally, the capital market in October usually tightens. The spread between Shibor 3M and the OMO 7 - day rate in October usually widens compared to September, with an average increase of 10bp since 2018. The capital rate often shows a flat trend in the first half of the month and an upward trend in the second half [5] - **Credit and Capital Relationship**: If credit rebounds in the fourth quarter, the capital rate may rise. The growth rate of social financing stock peaked and declined in August. As debt replacement ends in the fourth quarter, corporate credit may bottom out and rebound. Historically, the trend of Shibor 3M is generally consistent with the growth rates of social financing stock and corporate medium - and long - term loans [5] - **Analysis of Liquidity Gap**: In October, the net financing pressure of government bonds will decrease significantly. However, as it is a large tax - paying month at the beginning of the quarter, the liquidity gap may be about 90 billion yuan. Considering the maturity of various monetary tools, the liquidity gap will increase to 3.1 trillion yuan. Assuming equal - amount renewal, the estimated excess reserve ratio in September is about 1.06% [52][54]