研究员: 程小庆 从业资格号 F3083989 投资咨询号 Z0018635 报告日期:2025年10月9日 本周新增专项债发行160亿,环比减少1336亿,下周计划发行0亿 截至10/5,新增专项债发行进度为83.6% 2025 近2年均值 2025 · - 2024 -- 2023 2022 - 2021 1.5 r 4500 r 4000 3000 0.5 2000 1000 - -0.5 L 第5周 第1周 第4周 第12周 第16周 第20周 第24周 第24周 第28周 第31周 第35周 第43周 第47周 第51周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 第1周 9月新增专项债累计发行4131亿元 9月新增一般债累计发行510亿元 2025 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 2024 -- 2023 - 2022 - 2021 15000 + 2500 F 2000 10000 1500 5000 1000 500 -5000 -500 L 1月 2月 10月 11月 12月 10月 ...

风险提示 政府债发行受多方面因素影响、历史经验不完全适用、政策超预期、海外市场波动。 9 月复盘：9 月资金面较 8 月小幅收紧 9 月资金面环比收紧，但相较历史同期收紧幅度有限。9 月各期限资金利率中枢小幅上移，DR001、DR007、DR014 运行 中枢分别上行 4bp、1bp、3bp，从 DR007 偏离政策利率幅度来看，9 月 DR007 向上偏离 OMO 7 天幅度为 9bp，较 8 月的 8bp 小幅走阔。对比历史同期来看，历年 9 月 DR007 偏离政策利率幅度多较 8 月走阔，2016 年以来 9 月两者利差环比 走阔均值为 7bp，但今年 9 月资金利率收紧幅度明显低于历史同期均值。 今年 9 月央行净投放资金规模较历史同期偏高。截至 28 日，9 月央行通过逆回购、买断式逆回购及 MLF 合计净投放 资金 9760 亿，投放水平仅次于 2023 年 9 月。从历年 9 月资金利率的日度走势来看，和以往 9 月资金利率在月末"先 下后上"的走势略有不同，今年 9 月资金面抬升趋势可能在税期前后有所显现，随后到月末反而小幅走低。显示出央 行对资金面的精准把控及呵护态度，整体流动性虽然较 8 ...

中信期货有限公司 CITIC Futures Company Limited 政府债发行追踪―2025年第39周 研究员: 程小庆 从业资格号 F3083989 投资咨询号 Z0018635 报告日期: 2025年9月29日 截至9/28, 新增专项债发行进度为83.2% 本周新增专项债发行1496亿，环比增加518亿 2025 近2年均值 2025 · - 2024 -- 2023 2022 - 2021 1.5 r 4500 r 4000 3000 0.5 2000 1000 - -0.5 L 第1周 第4周 第12周 第16周 第20周 第24周 第24周 第28周 第31周 第35周 第39周 第43周 第47周 第51周 第5周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 第1周 截至9/28, 9月新增专项债累计发行3971亿元 截至9/28, 9月新增一般债累计发行411亿元 2025 2024 -- 2023 - - 2022 - 2021 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 15000 F ...

中信期货有限公司 CITIC Futures Company Limited 政府债发行追踪―2025年第39周 本周新增一般债发行56亿,环比减少151亿 2025 近2年均值 800 600 400 200 0 -50 第1周 第5周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 截至9/28, 新增一般债发行进度为82.7% 研究员: 程小庆 从业资格号 F3083989 投资咨询号 Z0018635 报告日期: 2025年9月29日 截至9/28, 新增专项债发行进度为83.2% 本周新增专项债发行1496亿，环比增加518亿 2025 近2年均值 2025 · - 2024 -- 2023 2022 - 2021 1.5 r 4500 r 4000 3000 0.5 2000 1000 - -0.5 L 第1周 第4周 第12周 第16周 第20周 第24周 第24周 第28周 第31周 第35周 第39周 第43周 第47周 第51周 第5周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第4 ...

截至9/21,新增专项债发行进度为79.8% 2025 近2年均值 - 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 1.5 r 4500 4000 1 3000 0. 5 2000 1000 -0.5 雙5周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 第1周 第4周 第38周 第41周 第49周 第1周 第1周 第8周 第12周 第15周 第19周 截至9/21,9月新增专项债累计发行2475亿 - 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 截至9/21,9月新增一般债累计发行354亿 中信期货有限公司 CITIC Futures Company Limited 政府债发行追踪—2025年第38周 研究员:程小庆 从业资格号 F3083989 投资咨询号 Z0018635 报告日期:2025年9月22日 本周新增专项债发行978亿,环比减少340亿 · 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 15000 - 2500 r 2000 10000 1500 5000 1000 500 ...

中信期货有限公司 CITIC Futures Company Limited 截至9/21,新增专项债发行进度为79.8% 2025 近2年均值 - 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 1.5 r 4500 4000 1 3000 0. 5 2000 1000 -0.5 雙5周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 第1周 第4周 第38周 第41周 第49周 第1周 第1周 第8周 第12周 第15周 第19周 截至9/21,9月新增专项债累计发行2475亿 - 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 截至9/21,9月新增一般债累计发行354亿 · 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 15000 - 2500 r 政府债发行追踪—2025年第38周 研究员:程小庆 从业资格号 F3083989 投资咨询号 Z0018635 报告日期:2025年9月22日 本周新增专项债发行978亿,环比减少340亿 截至9/21, 新增地方债发行进度为80.2% 2025 | ...

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - From January to August 2025, the combined revenue growth rate of the first and second accounts was 0% (previous value 0%) while the combined expenditure growth rate was 8.9% (previous value 9.3%) indicating stable revenue and a slight slowdown in expenditure growth[2] - The revenue improvement was primarily driven by a significant increase in stamp duty, which contributed 0.8 percentage points to the overall tax revenue growth[5] Tax Revenue Insights - Stamp duty (including securities transaction stamp duty) saw a year-on-year growth of 27.4% (previous value 20.7%), with securities transaction stamp duty increasing by 81.7% (previous value 62.5%)[15] - The number of new A-share accounts opened in August reached 2.6503 million, a 165% increase compared to the same period last year, reflecting strong market activity[15] Government Fund and Land Revenue - Government fund revenue showed a cumulative growth rate of -1.4% (previous value -0.7%), with land transfer revenue in August amounting to 231.3 billion yuan (previous value 267.9 billion yuan) and a cumulative growth rate of -4.7% (previous value -4.6%) indicating seasonal low performance[17] - The land market's performance is expected to depend heavily on the recovery of the real estate market, which currently shows weak demand[17] Debt Issuance and Expenditure Dynamics - The issuance of government bonds slowed down, with a total of 10.46 trillion yuan issued from January to August, representing a progress rate of 66.4%, which is lower than the previous year's rate by 1.9 percentage points[20] - Expenditure growth for the first account was 3.1% (previous value 3.4%), while the second account's expenditure growth rate was 30% (previous value 31.7%) indicating a slight decline in expenditure growth due to the slowdown in special bond issuance[21] Economic Risks - Risks include the potential for domestic economic recovery to fall short of expectations, policy implementation delays, and significant weaknesses in the real estate market[23]

Report Summary Report Title Government Bond Issuance Tracking - Week 37, 2025 [2] Core Viewpoints - This week, the issuance of new special bonds reached 131.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 114 billion yuan. As of September 14, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 77.6% [4]. - As of September 14, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in September was 14.7 billion yuan, and the cumulative issuance of new special bonds was 149.7 billion yuan [4]. - This week, the issuance of new general bonds was 14.7 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 14.7 billion yuan [7]. - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 192.8 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 156.1 billion yuan. As of September 14, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 77.9% [10]. - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 415.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 245.8 billion yuan [13]. - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 608.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 401.8 billion yuan. As of September 14, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance was 78.2% [16]. - As of September 14, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 79.4%, and the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 78.5% [21]. Data Details Special Bonds - New special bond issuance this week: 131.9 billion yuan, up 114 billion yuan week - on - week [4]. - Issuance progress as of September 14: 77.6% [4]. - Cumulative issuance in September as of September 14: 149.7 billion yuan [4]. General Bonds - New general bond issuance this week: 14.7 billion yuan, up 14.7 billion yuan week - on - week [7]. - Cumulative issuance in September as of September 14: 14.7 billion yuan [4]. - Issuance progress as of September 14: 79.4% [21]. Local Bonds - Net financing scale this week: 192.8 billion yuan, up 156.1 billion yuan week - on - week [10]. - Issuance progress as of September 14: 77.9% [10]. Treasury Bonds - Net financing scale this week: 415.6 billion yuan, up 245.8 billion yuan week - on - week [13]. - Net financing progress as of September 14: 78.5% [21]. Government Bonds - Net financing this week: 608.4 billion yuan, up 401.8 billion yuan week - on - week [16]. - Progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance as of September 14: 78.2% [16].

Monetary Market Overview - The central bank's OMO net injection was 196.1 billion CNY, and MLF net injection was 300 billion CNY, leading to a continued loose liquidity environment[7] - DR001 and DR007 both reached new year-to-date lows, with DR001 averaging 1.35% and DR007 averaging 1.48% for August[19] - The liquidity injection for the month reached 600 billion CNY, reflecting the central bank's stabilizing attitude amid market volatility[19] Institutional Behavior - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos decreased by 0.06 trillion CNY to 7.07 trillion CNY, with significant fluctuations observed on the last trading day of the month[15] - The new adjusted capital gap index fell to -630.2 billion CNY, the lowest level this year, indicating a slow pace of institutional cross-month activities[15] - The demand for interbank certificates of deposit remained stable, but the issuance success rate for various banks showed mixed results, with state-owned banks performing better[4] Government Debt and Financing - The expected government bond payment scale for next week is approximately 121.6 billion CNY, down from 211.4 billion CNY this week[20] - Cumulative issuance of new general bonds reached 620.8 billion CNY, while new special bonds totaled 32,641 billion CNY[20] - The net financing scale for government bonds is projected to decrease to about 1.2 trillion CNY in September[20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the factors affecting the bond market. The positive factors include a stable and loose capital supply, which provides continuous liquidity support and eases the pressure on the bond market, and the slower - than - expected issuance of government bonds, which reduces supply and eases concerns about the "asset shortage". The negative factors are that the manufacturing PMI has risen above 50, enhancing the expectation of economic improvement and suppressing the demand for bonds, and the 10 - year treasury bond variety has undergone shock adjustments, increasing the potential profit - taking pressure and weighing on market sentiment. The trading advice is to pay attention to the allocation value of the 10 - year treasury bond yield in the range of 1.75% - 1.80% and seize the trading opportunities [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Figures 3.1 Bond Yields - The report presents the trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond yields from 2024/04 to 2025/04 [4]. 3.2 Interest Rates - The trends of the weighted average interest rate of pledged repurchase by deposit - taking institutions for 1 - day and 7 - day, and the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate from 2023/12 to 2025/06 are shown [4]. 3.3 Bond Term Spreads - The trends of the 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y treasury bond term spreads from 2024/04 to 2025/04 are presented [4]. 3.4 Bond Futures Positions - The positions of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures from 2015/12 to 2023/12 are shown [6]. 3.5 Bond Futures Trading Volumes - The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures from 2024/04 to 2025/04 are presented [7]. 3.6 Bond Futures Basis - The trends of the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures for the current - quarter contracts are shown from different time periods: 02/29 - 10/31 for 2 - year, 2024/04 - 2025/04 for 5 - year, 02/29 - 10/31 for 10 - year, and 2023/06 - 2025/06 for 30 - year [8][9][10][14]. 3.7 Bond Futures Inter - delivery Spreads - The trends of the inter - delivery spreads (current - quarter minus next - quarter) of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are presented from different time periods: 2024/04 - 2025/04 for 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year, and 2023/06 - 2025/06 for 30 - year [12][13][15][16]. 3.8 Bond Futures Cross - variety Spreads - The trends of the cross - variety spreads of TS*4 - T from 2024/04 to 2025/04 and T*3 - TL from 2023/06 to 2025/06 are presented [17][18].