Group 1: Core Conclusions - The report presents three key thoughts on the current real estate dilemma, emphasizing that the existing supply exceeds demand, making "net supply" reduction crucial for stabilizing the market [2] - The report highlights that second-hand housing prices provide stronger guidance and leading signals compared to new housing prices, which can be understood from the perspectives of supply, demand, price, and policy [2] - It stresses the importance of recognizing the tail risks associated with the current real estate adjustment, particularly concerning developers, homebuyers, and banks, indicating potential risks may concentrate on banks, especially smaller banks [2] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - Four feasible policy measures are suggested to reduce net supply: optimizing land acquisition, revitalizing distressed and idle properties for public service needs, accelerating the replacement of aging housing, and allowing market forces to phase out "ghost town" housing in lower-tier cities [2] Group 3: Industry Performance Insights - The report provides insights into industry performance, noting that the defense and military industry showed a 59.9% increase over the past year, while the non-ferrous metals sector increased by 103.4% [1] - It also indicates that the banking sector experienced a decline of 2.3% in January, with a modest annual growth of 6.3%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the financial landscape [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Standing at the end of December and looking forward to January, investors' judgments on the future bond market trend are relatively concentrated: they maintain a preference for medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds and adopt a defensive approach overall. The intensity and rhythm of fiscal policy and the supply pressure of government bonds have become the core concerns of investors [1]. - According to the bond market survey questionnaire results released at the end of December, there are five mainstream expectations for the January bond market: investors' expectations for the upper and lower limits of long - term Treasury yields are neutral, showing a range - bound state; "Short - term strength and long - term weakness" is the mainstream expectation for the overall bond market trend; in bond market operations, the mainstream views are to hold cash and wait or keep positions basically stable; fiscal stimulus and government bond issuance are the most concerned core issues, and monetary policy and the capital market remain key concerns; investors' preference for medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds has increased [2]. Summary by Related Catalog 1. 1 - month Bond Market Outlook - **Survey Background**: A bond market questionnaire was released on December 26, 2025, and 123 valid questionnaires were received by 8:00 on December 29, covering various institutional and individual investors [9]. - **Long - term Treasury Yield Expectations** - **10 - year Treasury (250016)**: 50% of investors think the lower limit of the yield will fall in the 1.75% - 1.80% (inclusive) range, and 56% think the upper limit will fall in the 1.85% - 1.90% range. Current investors' expectations for the rise of the 10 - year Treasury interest rate have gradually increased compared with the November survey results [12][13]. - **30 - year Treasury (250006)**: 37% of investors think the lower limit of the yield will fall in the 2.15% - 2.20% (inclusive) range, and 44% think the upper limit will fall in the 2.25% - 2.30% range. Since December, the 30 - year Treasury yield has shown an overall oscillating trend, and investors expect it to oscillate downward in the next month [14]. - **Expectations for Monetary Policy** - **2026 Policy Adjustments**: 67% of investors think there will be one reserve requirement ratio cut in 2026, and 69% think there will be one interest rate cut [18]. - **Q1 2026 Policy**: 68% of investors think there will be a reserve requirement ratio cut in Q1 2026, but opinions on whether to cut interest rates vary, showing an overall expectation of "biased towards easing, but the path is undetermined" [20]. - **Market Buying Power after New Year**: 45% of investors think the bond market's major logic will remain unchanged after the New Year, and the buying power will remain weak. The overall expectation of the bond market's capital situation after the New Year is "cautious overall, with structural differences" [23]. - **January Bond Market Trends**: Investors do not have a strong consensus on a single direction for the January bond market. The expectation shows a pattern of "cautiously optimistic, structure - dominated", and "short - term strength and long - term weakness" is the most mainstream market expectation [25]. - **Current Bond Market Operations**: In December, most investors were neutral in actual operations. Holding cash and waiting to add positions after a callback and keeping positions basically stable were still the mainstream views. The proportion of those who could start adding positions decreased slightly, and the proportion of those who reduced duration to control risks increased [27]. - **January Bond Market Pricing Logic**: Fiscal stimulus and government bond issuance have become the most concerned core issues, with the proportion rising from 14% in the November survey to 27%. The focus of bond market investors has shifted to "fiscal policy" [28]. - **Preferred Bond Types in January**: Investors' preference for medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds has increased, and their preference for interbank certificates of deposit has also rebounded. The preference for ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds and secondary capital bonds has decreased, indicating that investors may pay more attention to liquidity protection and short - term certainty [32].

P信期货有限公司 CITIC Futures Company Limited 政府债发行追踪 -- 2025年第51周 -500 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 RH 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 研究员:程小庆 从业资格号 F3083989 投资咨询号 Z0018635 甘 青 从业资格号 F03124127 投资咨询号Z0023461 报告日期: 2025/12/22 本周新增专项债发行293亿,环比减少208亿 截至12/21,新增专项债发行进度为104.0% 下周计划发行20亿 2025 | 近2年均值 - 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 5000 1.2 [ 0. 9 4000 0. 6 3000 0.3 2000 1000 -0. 3 -500 -0.5 第1周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 第1周 第5周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第13周 第17周 截至12/21,12月新增一般债累计发行384亿元 截至12/21,12月新增专项债累计发行1184亿元 - 2025 - 2024 - 20 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 50th week of 2025, including new special bonds, new general bonds, local bonds, and national bonds, and provides data on issuance, net financing, and progress [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog New Special Bond Issuance - This week, new special bond issuance was 50.1 billion yuan, a week - on - week change of 11 billion yuan [1]. - As of December 14, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 103.3% [1]. - Next week, the planned issuance is 29.3 billion yuan [1]. - As of December 14, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in December was 89.1 billion yuan [1]. New General Bond Issuance - This week, new general bond issuance was 21 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 9.6 billion yuan [1]. - As of December 14, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 95.5% [1]. - Next week, the planned issuance is 6 billion yuan [1]. - As of December 14, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in December was 32.4 billion yuan [1]. Local Bond Net Financing - This week, the local bond net financing scale was 62.3 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 1.8 billion yuan [1]. - As of December 14, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 102.1% [1]. - Next week, the planned net financing is 28.1 billion yuan [3]. National Bond Net Financing - As of December 14, the national bond net financing progress was 96.2% [6]. - This week, the national bond net financing scale was 238.1 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 271.9 billion yuan [14]. - Next week, the planned net financing is - 147.3 billion yuan [14]. Government Bond Net Financing - This week, the government bond net financing was 300.3 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 273.6 billion yuan [9]. - Next week, the planned net financing is - 119.2 billion yuan [9]. - As of December 14, the progress of national bond net financing plus new local bond issuance was 98.8% [9].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 50th week of 2025, presenting the issuance, progress, and planned issuance of various types of bonds [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 New Special Bonds - This week, new special bond issuance was 50.1 billion yuan, a 11 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week [1] - As of December 14, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 103.3% [1] - Next week, the planned issuance is 29.3 billion yuan [1] - As of December 14, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in December was 89.1 billion yuan [1] 3.2 New General Bonds - This week, new general bond issuance was 21 billion yuan, a 9.6 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week [1] - As of December 14, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 95.5% [1] - Next week, the planned issuance is 6 billion yuan [1] - As of December 14, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in December was 32.4 billion yuan [1] 3.3 Local Government Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of local government bonds was 62.3 billion yuan, a 1.8 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week [1] - As of December 14, the issuance progress of new local government bonds was 102.1% [1] - Next week, the planned net financing is 28.1 billion yuan [3] 3.4 Treasury Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 238.1 billion yuan, a 271.9 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week [14] - As of December 14, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 96.2% [6] - Next week, the planned net financing is - 147.3 billion yuan [14] 3.5 Government Bonds - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 300.3 billion yuan, a 273.6 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week [9] - As of December 14, the combined progress of treasury bond net financing and new local government bond issuance was 98.8% [9] - Next week, the planned net financing is - 119.2 billion yuan [9]

Group 1: Government Bond Issuance Overview - This week, the net financing scale of government bonds was 267 billion yuan, a decrease of 3383 billion yuan compared to the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is -5102 billion yuan [11] - As of December 7, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 102.2%, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 92.9%, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 100.8%, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 92.7%, and the progress of treasury bond net financing + new local bond issuance was 96.2% [3][17][8][12] Group 2: Special Bond Issuance - This week, the issuance of new special bonds was 39 billion yuan, a decrease of 186.2 billion yuan compared to the previous week. As of December 7, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in December was 39 billion yuan. Next week, the planned issuance is 50.1 billion yuan [3] Group 3: General Bond Issuance - This week, the issuance of new general bonds was 11.4 billion yuan, an increase of 2.6 billion yuan compared to the previous week. As of December 7, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in December was 11.4 billion yuan. Next week, the planned issuance is 21 billion yuan [18] Group 4: Treasury Bond Issuance - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was -33.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 72.9 billion yuan compared to the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is -572.4 billion yuan (750 billion yuan of special treasury bonds are due, and the roll - over should be noted) [8] Group 5: Local Bond Issuance - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 60.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 265.4 billion yuan compared to the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is 62.3 billion yuan [20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 48th week of 2025, presenting the issuance progress, scale, and planned issuance of new special bonds, new general bonds, local bonds, and treasury bonds [3][7][9][13] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs New Special Bonds - As of November 30, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 101.3% [3] - This week, new special bonds issued 225.3 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 143 billion yuan, and next week's planned issuance is 39 billion yuan [3] - In November, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds was 492.2 billion yuan [4] New General Bonds - As of November 30, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 91.5% [8] - This week, new general bonds issued 8.8 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 11.6 billion yuan, and next week's planned issuance is 11.4 billion yuan [7] - In November, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds was 41.6 billion yuan [5] Local Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 325.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 199.2 billion yuan, and next week's planned net financing is 60.5 billion yuan [9] - As of November 30, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 99.8% [10] Treasury Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 39.1 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 62.5 billion yuan, and next week's planned net financing is - 133.8 billion yuan [13] - As of November 30, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 93.2% [14] Government Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of government bonds was 365 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 136.7 billion yuan, and next week's planned net financing is - 73.3 billion yuan [15] - As of November 30, the progress of treasury bond net financing + new local bond issuance was 96.1% [15]

Core Insights - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that new RMB loans and social financing in October have decreased year-on-year, reflecting a weak real estate cycle and the impact of local and corporate debt replacement loans [1] - The new policy financial tools have not yet fully demonstrated their effect on social financing, although M1 and M2 growth rates have slightly declined, they still maintain a relatively fast growth [1] - Looking ahead, the completion of the new policy financial tools' deployment in October is expected to further boost social financing [1] Group 1 - New RMB loans and social financing in October have decreased year-on-year, influenced by a weak real estate cycle and local debt replacement [1] - The growth rates of M1 and M2 have slightly declined but remain robust overall [1] - The new policy financial tools, with a total of 500 billion yuan deployed in October, are anticipated to stimulate corporate loan demand and support social financing growth [1] Group 2 - Recent adjustments in national housing prices and weak real estate demand have negatively impacted residential loan growth [1] - The replacement of local debts, combined with low interest rates and the issuance of technology innovation bonds, has somewhat suppressed corporate loan financing demand [1] - The significant front-loading of government bonds this year has led to a noticeable year-on-year decrease in net government bond issuance in October [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 45th week of 2025, presenting the issuance progress, weekly issuance, and planned issuance of various types of bonds, including new special bonds, new general bonds, new local bonds, and treasury bonds, as well as the net financing scale of local bonds and treasury bonds [2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Bond Type New Special Bonds - As of November 9, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 91.1%. This week, 45.2 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued, a decrease of 109.7 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week, 139.4 billion yuan is planned to be issued. As of November 9, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in November was 45.2 billion yuan [4][5]. New General Bonds - As of November 9, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 86.3%. This week, 0 yuan of new general bonds were issued, a decrease of 1.7 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week, 1.25 billion yuan is planned to be issued. As of November 9, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in January was 0 yuan [5][6]. New Local Bonds - As of November 9, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 90.4% [9]. Treasury Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 225.8 billion yuan, an increase of 225.8 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is 22 billion yuan. As of November 9, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 87.4% [12]. Local Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was -33.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 209.3 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is 242.8 billion yuan [18].

Report Overview - Report Title: Government Bond Issuance Tracking - Week 43, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Cheng Xiaoqing [3] - Report Date: October 27, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - As of October 26, the issuance progress of new special bonds reached 86.6%, with 112.4 billion yuan issued this week, a week - on - week increase of 92.3 billion yuan, and 154.9 billion yuan planned for next week [4] - As of October 26, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in October was 1.3 billion yuan, with 1.3 billion yuan issued this week, a week - on - week increase of 1.3 billion yuan, and the issuance progress reached 84.1%, with 17 billion yuan planned for next week [5][7] - As of October 26, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in October was 132.5 billion yuan [6] - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 165.8 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 185.5 billion yuan, and the net financing is expected to be 178 billion yuan next week. As of October 26, the issuance progress of new local bonds reached 86.2% [8] - As of October 26, the net financing progress of treasury bonds reached 84.0% [12] - As of October 26, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance reached 85.0%, and the net financing is expected to be 178 billion yuan next week [15] - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 23.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 6.9 billion yuan, and the net financing is expected to be 0 billion yuan next week. This week, the net financing of government bonds was 189.3 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 192.5 billion yuan [20]