华福证券 2026 年 03 月 01 日 固 定 收 益 2 月跨月资金平稳 1Y 存单续创近一年新低 —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 260301 投资要点： 固 定 收 益 定 期 报 货币市场：本周（2 月 24 日至 2 月 28 日）央行 OMO 合计净回笼 6114 亿，周三有 1500 亿元国库现金定存到期，当日央行开展 6000 亿元 1 年期 MLF 操作，较到期超额续作 3000 亿。节后逆回购大规模到期，缴税截止 日也延迟到 24 日，叠加周三后政府债净缴款规模也有所回升，尽管有节后 现金回流的补充，上半周资金仍边际收紧，周三 DR001 一度升至 1.38%上 方，但随着央行 3000 亿 MLF 净投放以及 OMO 的积极对冲，下半周资金 逐步转松，周六 DR001 回落至 1.32%。 告 假期及调休因素带来扰动，本周质押式回购成交量先升后降，全周日 均成交量环比下降 0.02 万亿至 6.71 万亿；质押式回购整体规模同样先升后 降，周六再度回落至 12 万亿下方。大型银行净融出周四前震荡回升，临近 月末有所回落但仍高于节前；中小型银行净融出在节后首日显著回升后持 续小幅回落， ...

Report Summary Report Title - Government Bond Issuance Tracking [2] Report Date - February 9, 2026 [3] Researcher Information - Cheng Xiaoqing, Qualification No. F3083989, Investment Consultation No. Z0018635 [3] - Gan Mang, Qualification No. F03124127, Investment Consultation No. Z0023461 [3] Key Data Points General Bond - As of February 8, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in February was 75.5 billion yuan [4] - This week's new general bond issuance was 75.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 36.3 billion yuan, and next week's planned issuance is 61.6 billion yuan [4] Special Bond - As of February 8, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in February was 134.3 billion yuan [4] Local Government Bond Net Financing - This week's local government bond net financing scale was 578.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 268.1 billion yuan, and next week's planned net financing is 320.5 billion yuan [5] Treasury Bond Net Financing - This week's treasury bond net financing scale was 212 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 325.3 billion yuan, and next week's planned net financing is - 249.9 billion yuan [8] Government Bond Net Financing - This week's government bond net financing was 790.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 593.4 billion yuan, and next week's planned net financing is 70.6 billion yuan [10]

Report Summary 1. Key Data on Bond Issuance - This week, the issuance of new special bonds was 193.1 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 128.6 billion yuan, and the planned issuance for next week is 134.3 billion yuan [4] - As of January 31st, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in January was 367.7 billion yuan [6] - This week, the issuance of new general bonds was 39.2 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 18.6 billion yuan, and the planned issuance for next week is 75.5 billion yuan [9] 2. Net Financing Scale - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 310.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 107.7 billion yuan, and the planned net financing for next week is 579.4 billion yuan [11] - This week, the net financing scale of national bonds was - 113.3 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 457.6 billion yuan, and the planned net financing for next week is 142 billion yuan [14] - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 197.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 349.9 billion yuan, and the planned net financing for next week is 721.4 billion yuan [16]

华福证券 2026 年 02 月 01 日 固 定 收 益 央行新工具意义何在 地方债发行放量期限压缩 —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 260201 投资要点： 固 定 收 货币市场：本周 OMO 合计净投放 5805 亿元，本周一有 2000 亿元 MLF 到期，周三财政部开展 1500 亿元 1M 国库现金定存操作，中标利率 连续 3 月维持在 1.73%。本周初 OMO 净投放规模有限，但 MLF 到期叠 加缴准以及政府债大量缴款，使得资金边际收紧，但此后外生扰动减弱， 临近月末央行投放规模也逐步增大，DR001 回落至 1.33%附近。 益 定 期 报 告 质押式回购成交量周一后持续回落；质押式回购整体规模周四前震荡 回升，周五明显回落。大型银行净融出在周一下行后维持震荡，中小型银 行净融出周四前持续上行，周五回落但仍高于上周；银行整体净融出维持 震荡，中枢较上周略有回落。非银刚性融出持续上升，其中货基、其他产 品、理财融出延续上升。非银刚性融入震荡上行，其中其他产品升幅较大。 资金缺口指数在周一上行后持续回落，但周五再度走高，季调后指数升至- 4098，略高于上周五的-4961，而季调前指数周五为- ...

华福证券 宏 观 研 究 财政支出降幅收窄 ——2025 年 12 月财政数据解读 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 全年收支未达目标。回顾 2025 年全年的财政收支，首先，税收收入明 显改善，尤其是增值税、个人所得税和企业所得税，是公共财政收入端的 重心；其次，财政支出侧重民生领域，基建类支出占比趋降；再次，支出 节奏前置，年末进度落后，全年预算短支；最后，土地财政持续低迷且波 动较大，对广义财政收入构成拖累。2025 年广义财政收入、支出增速分别 为-2.9%、3.7%，单独看 12 月当月的表现，2025 年 12 月广义财政收入较 上月回落 13.3 个百分点至-18.5%，广义支出增速较上月回升 1 个百分点至 -0.7%。收入端来看，12 月税收走弱受到高基数效应和经济放缓的影响，土 地出让收入对广义财政持续构成制约；支出端方面，融资前置导致年底后 劲略显不足，仅基建相关支出有明显改善。 财政依旧前置发力。展望 2026 年，一般公共预算赤字率或保持稳定， 同时，全国财政工作会议指出要"扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度"， 随着物价有望企稳回升，财政收入对于支出端的制约减弱，财政"增支" 的效果或更 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report [2] Group 2: Core Views - The A-share market is expected to enter a volatile trend after a continuous upward movement followed by a decline, with trading volume shrinking and market sentiment cooling. For the bond market, the short - term capital is relatively loose, and the long - end of the bond futures is strengthening, but there are still some resistance levels. The precious metals market is supported by macro - geopolitical events and shows a relatively strong trend. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the prices are oscillating. Other commodity markets also have different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals and market factors [2] Group 3: Summaries by Categories Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares have different trends such as a decline after a rally and a weak rebound. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, take profits on some profitable contracts, reduce long positions, and wait for re - entry opportunities [2] - **Bond Futures**: The capital is stable and loose, and the long - end of bond futures is strengthening. It is advisable to temporarily watch on the unilateral strategy and not chase the high. For the spot - futures strategy, pay attention to the positive spreads of TS, T, and TF contracts and the strategy of widening the basis [2] - **Precious Metals**: Gold can be bought at dips above the 20 - day moving average and sell out - of - the - money call options to lock in risks. Silver is in a high - level oscillation, and it is advisable to participate cautiously. Platinum can be bought at dips when it touches the 20 - day moving average, and an option straddle strategy can be used within a certain price range [2] Industrial Products - **Steel and Iron**: Steel has weak supply and demand, with steel prices oscillating. Iron ore supply is in the off - season and ports are accumulating inventory. For coking coal and coke, the market has over - anticipated, and they are expected to be in a downward - biased oscillation. For silicon - related products, the supply - demand situation is improving, and they are in a wide - range oscillation [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper prices are oscillating and inventories are accumulating. Aluminum products are affected by macro factors, and there are different trading strategies for different varieties. Zinc prices are oscillating and falling back, and tin is in a wide - range oscillation. Nickel is in an oscillating adjustment, and stainless steel is in a relatively strong oscillation [2] - **New Energy**: Industrial silicon futures are oscillating, polycrystalline silicon is in a weak - biased oscillation, and lithium carbonate is in a strong - biased operation [2] Energy and Chemical Products - Most products have different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals. For example, PX is in a short - term high - level oscillation, PTA is oscillating and following raw materials, and some products such as short - fiber and bottle - chip are also affected by supply - demand and raw material factors. Some products like ethylene glycol and pure benzene have specific trading strategies based on their inventory and supply - demand situations [2] Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, soybean meal has strong bottom support, palm oil may try to break through the annual resistance level, and products like sugar are in a weak - biased oscillation, while cotton needs to pay attention to the support level [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds, including the issuance and net financing scale of new special bonds, new general bonds, local government bonds, and national bonds in the week up to January 11, 2026, as well as the planned issuance and net financing scale for the following week [2][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Content New Special Bond Issuance - This week, new special bond issuance was 87.4 billion yuan, a 72.9 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week. Next week, the planned issuance is 22.8 billion yuan. As of January 11, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in January was 87.4 billion yuan [2] New General Bond Issuance - This week, new general bond issuance was 1 billion yuan, a 1 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week. Next week, the planned issuance is 0 yuan. As of January 11, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in January was 100 million yuan [2] Local Government Bond Net Financing - This week, the local government bond net financing scale was 114.7 billion yuan, a 97.2 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is 60.9 billion yuan [2] National Bond Net Financing - This week, the national bond net financing scale was 495 billion yuan, a 495 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is - 339.2 billion yuan [5] Government Bond Net Financing - This week, the government bond net financing was 609.7 billion yuan, a 592.2 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is - 278.3 billion yuan [6]

Group 1: Core Conclusions - The report presents three key thoughts on the current real estate dilemma, emphasizing that the existing supply exceeds demand, making "net supply" reduction crucial for stabilizing the market [2] - The report highlights that second-hand housing prices provide stronger guidance and leading signals compared to new housing prices, which can be understood from the perspectives of supply, demand, price, and policy [2] - It stresses the importance of recognizing the tail risks associated with the current real estate adjustment, particularly concerning developers, homebuyers, and banks, indicating potential risks may concentrate on banks, especially smaller banks [2] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - Four feasible policy measures are suggested to reduce net supply: optimizing land acquisition, revitalizing distressed and idle properties for public service needs, accelerating the replacement of aging housing, and allowing market forces to phase out "ghost town" housing in lower-tier cities [2] Group 3: Industry Performance Insights - The report provides insights into industry performance, noting that the defense and military industry showed a 59.9% increase over the past year, while the non-ferrous metals sector increased by 103.4% [1] - It also indicates that the banking sector experienced a decline of 2.3% in January, with a modest annual growth of 6.3%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the financial landscape [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Standing at the end of December and looking forward to January, investors' judgments on the future bond market trend are relatively concentrated: they maintain a preference for medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds and adopt a defensive approach overall. The intensity and rhythm of fiscal policy and the supply pressure of government bonds have become the core concerns of investors [1]. - According to the bond market survey questionnaire results released at the end of December, there are five mainstream expectations for the January bond market: investors' expectations for the upper and lower limits of long - term Treasury yields are neutral, showing a range - bound state; "Short - term strength and long - term weakness" is the mainstream expectation for the overall bond market trend; in bond market operations, the mainstream views are to hold cash and wait or keep positions basically stable; fiscal stimulus and government bond issuance are the most concerned core issues, and monetary policy and the capital market remain key concerns; investors' preference for medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds has increased [2]. Summary by Related Catalog 1. 1 - month Bond Market Outlook - **Survey Background**: A bond market questionnaire was released on December 26, 2025, and 123 valid questionnaires were received by 8:00 on December 29, covering various institutional and individual investors [9]. - **Long - term Treasury Yield Expectations** - **10 - year Treasury (250016)**: 50% of investors think the lower limit of the yield will fall in the 1.75% - 1.80% (inclusive) range, and 56% think the upper limit will fall in the 1.85% - 1.90% range. Current investors' expectations for the rise of the 10 - year Treasury interest rate have gradually increased compared with the November survey results [12][13]. - **30 - year Treasury (250006)**: 37% of investors think the lower limit of the yield will fall in the 2.15% - 2.20% (inclusive) range, and 44% think the upper limit will fall in the 2.25% - 2.30% range. Since December, the 30 - year Treasury yield has shown an overall oscillating trend, and investors expect it to oscillate downward in the next month [14]. - **Expectations for Monetary Policy** - **2026 Policy Adjustments**: 67% of investors think there will be one reserve requirement ratio cut in 2026, and 69% think there will be one interest rate cut [18]. - **Q1 2026 Policy**: 68% of investors think there will be a reserve requirement ratio cut in Q1 2026, but opinions on whether to cut interest rates vary, showing an overall expectation of "biased towards easing, but the path is undetermined" [20]. - **Market Buying Power after New Year**: 45% of investors think the bond market's major logic will remain unchanged after the New Year, and the buying power will remain weak. The overall expectation of the bond market's capital situation after the New Year is "cautious overall, with structural differences" [23]. - **January Bond Market Trends**: Investors do not have a strong consensus on a single direction for the January bond market. The expectation shows a pattern of "cautiously optimistic, structure - dominated", and "short - term strength and long - term weakness" is the most mainstream market expectation [25]. - **Current Bond Market Operations**: In December, most investors were neutral in actual operations. Holding cash and waiting to add positions after a callback and keeping positions basically stable were still the mainstream views. The proportion of those who could start adding positions decreased slightly, and the proportion of those who reduced duration to control risks increased [27]. - **January Bond Market Pricing Logic**: Fiscal stimulus and government bond issuance have become the most concerned core issues, with the proportion rising from 14% in the November survey to 27%. The focus of bond market investors has shifted to "fiscal policy" [28]. - **Preferred Bond Types in January**: Investors' preference for medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds has increased, and their preference for interbank certificates of deposit has also rebounded. The preference for ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds and secondary capital bonds has decreased, indicating that investors may pay more attention to liquidity protection and short - term certainty [32].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The issuance of new special bonds this week was 29.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.8 billion yuan compared to the previous week. As of December 21, the issuance progress of new special bonds reached 104.0%. Next week, 2 billion yuan of special bonds are planned to be issued [4]. - As of December 21, the issuance progress of new local bonds reached 102.8% [10]. - As of December 21, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 95.5%. This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was -47.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 285.3 billion yuan compared to the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is 118 billion yuan [12]. - This week, the net financing of government bonds was -19.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 319.5 billion yuan compared to the previous week. As of December 21, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance reached 98.7%. Next week, the planned net financing is 114.8 billion yuan [12]. - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 28.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 34.2 billion yuan compared to the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is -3.2 billion yuan [13]. - As of December 21, the issuance progress of new general bonds reached 96.3% [18]. - This week, the issuance of new general bonds was 6 billion yuan, a decrease of 15 billion yuan compared to the previous week. Next week, no general bonds are planned to be issued [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs New Special Bonds - This week's issuance: 29.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.8 billion yuan compared to the previous week [4]. - Issuance progress as of December 21: 104.0% [4]. - Next week's planned issuance: 2 billion yuan [4]. New General Bonds - This week's issuance: 6 billion yuan, a decrease of 15 billion yuan compared to the previous week [19]. - Issuance progress as of December 21: 96.3% [18]. - Next week's planned issuance: 0 billion yuan [19]. New Local Bonds - Issuance progress as of December 21: 102.8% [10]. Treasury Bonds - Net financing progress as of December 21: 95.5% [12]. - This week's net financing scale: -47.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 285.3 billion yuan compared to the previous week [12]. - Next week's planned net financing: 118 billion yuan [12]. Government Bonds - This week's net financing: -19.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 319.5 billion yuan compared to the previous week [12]. - Progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance as of December 21: 98.7% [12]. - Next week's planned net financing: 114.8 billion yuan [12]. Local Bonds - This week's net financing scale: 28.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 34.2 billion yuan compared to the previous week [13]. - Next week's planned net financing: -3.2 billion yuan [13].