（文章来源：证券时报） 中信证券首席经济学家明明在研报中指出，10月假期因素影响下现金需求的季节性抬升，预计10月流动 性缺口可能较大。参考三季度以来央行对于流动性宽松的支持力度，以及配合后续财政发力的必要性， 预计央行公开市场操作、中期借贷便利以及买断式逆回购等工具力度延续，资金利率和政策利率利差或 保持稳定。 10月9日，在国庆中秋假期后的首个工作日，中国人民银行以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式 开展1.1万亿元3个月期买断式逆回购操作。鉴于10月有8000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购到期，本次操作 后当月实现3个月期买断式逆回购加量续作3000亿元。 ...

中信证券首席经济学家明明在研报中指出，10月假期因素影响下现金需求的季节性抬升，预计10月流动 性缺口可能较大。参考三季度以来央行对于流动性宽松的支持力度，以及配合后续财政发力的必要性， 预计央行公开市场操作、中期借贷便利以及买断式逆回购等工具力度延续，资金利率和政策利率利差或 保持稳定。 (贺觉渊) 10月9日，在国庆中秋假期后的首个工作日，中国人民银行以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式 开展1.1万亿元3个月期买断式逆回购操作。鉴于10月有8000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购到期，本次操作 后当月实现3个月期买断式逆回购加量续作3000亿元。 ...

新华财经北京10月9日电（王菁）国庆长假过后首个交易日（10月9日），债市期现券同步回暖，午后长 端品种表现更趋强势，国债期货主力全线收涨、银行间现券收益率下行1-2BPs；公开市场单日净回笼 14513亿元，月初资金利率普遍显著回落。 机构认为，10月流动性缺口可能季节性走阔，央行节前公告买断式逆回购释放了一定宽松信号，当前收 益率曲线较为平坦，后续或"先牛陡后牛平"的概率更大。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.46%报114.530，10年期主力合约涨0.15%报108.045，5年 期主力合约涨0.07%报105.730，2年期主力合约涨0.02%报102.394。 银行间主要利率债收益率普遍下行，30年期国债"25超长特别国债02"收益率下行1.25BP报2.117%，10年 期国开债"25国开15"收益率下行0.65BP报1.956%，10年期国债"25附息国债11"收益率下行1BP报 1.773%。 中证转债指数午盘上涨0.65%，报488.64点。万得可转债等权指数上涨0.70%，报238.03点。豪美转债、 微导转债、精达转债、雪榕转债、科达转债涨幅居前，分别涨13. ...

风险提示 政府债发行受多方面因素影响、历史经验不完全适用、政策超预期、海外市场波动。 9 月复盘：9 月资金面较 8 月小幅收紧 9 月资金面环比收紧，但相较历史同期收紧幅度有限。9 月各期限资金利率中枢小幅上移，DR001、DR007、DR014 运行 中枢分别上行 4bp、1bp、3bp，从 DR007 偏离政策利率幅度来看，9 月 DR007 向上偏离 OMO 7 天幅度为 9bp，较 8 月的 8bp 小幅走阔。对比历史同期来看，历年 9 月 DR007 偏离政策利率幅度多较 8 月走阔，2016 年以来 9 月两者利差环比 走阔均值为 7bp，但今年 9 月资金利率收紧幅度明显低于历史同期均值。 今年 9 月央行净投放资金规模较历史同期偏高。截至 28 日，9 月央行通过逆回购、买断式逆回购及 MLF 合计净投放 资金 9760 亿，投放水平仅次于 2023 年 9 月。从历年 9 月资金利率的日度走势来看，和以往 9 月资金利率在月末"先 下后上"的走势略有不同，今年 9 月资金面抬升趋势可能在税期前后有所显现，随后到月末反而小幅走低。显示出央 行对资金面的精准把控及呵护态度，整体流动性虽然较 8 ...

Market Performance - The bond market showed mixed performance on September 4, with interbank cash bonds initially strong but yields rising in the afternoon, while government bond futures mostly closed higher [1] - The 30-year main contract rose by 0.26% to 117.330, the 10-year main contract increased by 0.13% to 108.260, and the 5-year main contract went up by 0.06% to 105.755, while the 2-year main contract fell by 0.01% to 102.432 [2] Yield Movements - The yield on the 10-year China Development Bank bond rose by 1.1 basis points to 1.857%, while the 10-year government bond yield increased by 0.5 basis points to 1.7525% [2] - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield fell by 4.2 basis points to 3.538%, and the 10-year German bond yield decreased by 4.6 basis points to 2.737% [3] - In Asia, the 10-year Japanese bond yield dropped by 3.7 basis points to 1.593% [4] Primary Market - The China Development Bank's three financial bonds had winning yields mostly below the China Bond valuation, with yields of 1.3519%, 1.6702%, and 1.87% for 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year bonds respectively [5] - The bidding multiples for Hebei Province's local bonds exceeded 20 times, with a 10-year bond yield of 1.99% and a 15-year bond yield of 2.22% [5] Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 2126 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 2035 billion yuan for the day [6] - Short-term Shibor rates mostly rose, with the overnight rate unchanged at 1.316% and the 7-day rate up by 0.4 basis points to 1.437% [6] Institutional Insights - Citic Securities noted that the liquidity gap in September may narrow compared to August, with limited government bond supply disturbances and a supportive monetary policy [7] - Shenwan Hongyuan pointed out that the low interest rate environment has led to significant changes in asset allocation behavior, with funds seeking better alternatives due to low returns on deposits and pure bonds [8]

Group 1 - The central bank maintains a relatively loose liquidity stance, with market institutions expecting no tightening of funds in August [1][2] - The liquidity gap in August is estimated to be around 200 billion yuan, indicating manageable pressure [1] - Government bond issuance is expected to peak in August, with net financing around 1.2 trillion yuan, contributing to the liquidity landscape [2] Group 2 - The banking sector is anticipated to face increased pressure due to high government bond supply, with monthly net financing potentially reaching 1.5 to 1.6 trillion yuan [2] - The central bank may utilize various liquidity management tools, including OMO, MLF, and reverse repos, to stabilize the market [2] - Recent economic data does not support a shift in monetary policy, reinforcing the expectation of stable liquidity conditions [2][3] Group 3 - Risks to liquidity are more influenced by institutional market behavior rather than fiscal and monetary policies, highlighting the need to monitor bank liabilities and lending capabilities [3] - The decline in deposit rates and the siphoning effect from the equity market may exacerbate deposit outflows, particularly affecting joint-stock banks [3] - The recent reduction in leverage in the bond market is expected to help control the sensitivity of institutions to fluctuations in funding rates [3]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed significant recovery on July 30, with a general decline in yields following the release of key meeting content, which alleviated previous market caution [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.40% to 118.36, the 10-year main contract up by 0.15% to 108.3, and the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.08% to 105.63 [2]. - The average yield on interbank bonds fell by approximately 3 basis points, with the 30-year government bond yield decreasing by 4.1 basis points to 1.92% [2]. Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank conducted a net injection of 158.5 billion yuan through reverse repos, with a total of 309 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos at a rate of 1.40% [5]. - Short-term funding rates continued to decline, with the overnight Shibor down by 4.9 basis points to 1.317% [5]. Institutional Insights - Citic Securities indicated that the liquidity pressure for August is manageable, and the risk from fiscal and monetary policies is controllable, suggesting a cautious approach to market positioning [6]. - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) noted that the demand for credit bonds remains stable, and the risk of significant adjustments in interest rate bonds is low unless major growth-stabilizing policies are introduced [6].

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities reports that the absolute scale pressure of liquidity gap in August is not significant, excluding the factors of MLF and reverse repos maturing [1] Group 1: Liquidity Analysis - The liquidity gap in August is manageable, with no major tightening expected [1] - Fiscal and monetary policies are deemed to have controllable risks regarding liquidity patterns [1] - Attention should be paid to institutional behaviors that may disrupt the funding landscape [1] Group 2: Recommendations - It is advised to be cautious in positioning during specific periods such as month-end or tax payment dates [1] - Over-speculation in liquidity conditions is not recommended [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, the overall capital gap pressure may be seasonally large, with a liquidity gap of around 2.4 trillion yuan. The fiscal disturbances are likely to be concentrated in the second half of the month. After a slight easing at the beginning of July, the funds will converge upwards, and the room for further easing is limited [1][2][67]. - In June, the central bank actively supported the cross - quarter period. The overnight funds were generally stable, while the volatility range of 7D funds increased slightly. The over - reserve level may have recovered to a seasonally high level. The second - quarter monetary policy meeting did not mention "reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate cuts" and emphasized "preventing capital idling" and "monitoring long - term yields", indicating limited room for significant capital easing in the future [3][6][46]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 6 - Month Review of Capital and Liquidity: Active Support at Quarter - End, Brief Tightening of Capital Prices 3.1.1 Capital Review: Slightly Enlarged Fluctuation Range of 7D at Quarter - End - In June 2025, the central bank actively supported the cross - quarter period. Overnight funds were generally stable, and the 7D funds showed a larger fluctuation range. The 7D weighted price fluctuated more widely compared to the previous month, and the spread between 7D and overnight funds widened at the quarter - end without inversion [6]. - In the early part of June, the upfront operation of 3M term repurchase agreements (1 trillion yuan) made the capital expectation turn looser. In the middle, the 6M repurchase agreement (4000 billion yuan) offset the tax - period disturbances. In the late part, despite the central bank's support, the capital price tightened due to slow institutional cross - quarter operations and high bond market leverage [7]. - The capital stratification pressure in June was not significant, with the spreads at seasonally low levels. The volatility of overnight funds remained low, and the 7D funds were also at a seasonally low level. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased slightly, and the net lending of state - owned banks recovered, while that of money market funds declined [13][18][19]. 3.1.2 Liquidity Review: Reserve Requirement Ratio Cut Implemented, Bank Liquidity Level Increased - In terms of liquidity volume, the end - of - month over - reserve may have increased by 7061 billion yuan, and the over - reserve ratio was around 1.57%, at a seasonally high level. However, the narrow over - reserve level after deducting reverse repurchases was still relatively low at around 0.8% [31]. - In open - market operations, the central bank actively increased the reverse - repurchase investment in June, with a net investment of 5359 billion yuan. The MLF investment was 3000 billion yuan, and the net investment of the repurchase agreement was 2000 billion yuan. There was no treasury - deposit operation, and 1000 billion yuan of treasury deposits matured [34][40][42]. 3.2 6 - Month Monetary Policy Tracking: Lujiazui Forum Focused on Global Governance, Monetary Policy Meeting Concerned about Long - Term Interest Rates - In June 2025, the Lujiazui Forum focused on non - bank leverage, and the end - of - month meeting still concerned about capital idling and long - term interest rates. The upfront operation of the 3M repurchase agreement in June signaled the central bank's support for the capital market. The Lujiazui Forum discussed non - bank institution leverage and supervision [46][47]. - The second - quarter monetary policy meeting suggested increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation, emphasizing long - term interest rate risks and preventing capital idling. The large - scale purchase of short - term treasury bonds by large banks and relevant media reports triggered market attention to the central bank's bond - buying operations [49][50]. 3.3 July Gap Prediction: Fiscal Disturbances May Concentrate in the Second Half of the Month 3.3.1 Rigid Gap: Slight Release of Reserves, Large - Scale Repurchase Agreement Maturity - In July, as it is the beginning of the quarter, the reserve release may supplement liquidity by around 1388 billion yuan. The MLF maturity is 3000 billion yuan, and the total maturity of the repurchase agreement is 1.2 trillion yuan (7000 billion yuan for 3M and 5000 billion yuan for 6M) [1][55]. 3.3.2 Exogenous Shocks: Limited Impact of Cash Withdrawal and Non - Financial Institution Deposits on Over - Reserves - In July, cash withdrawal may slightly consume over - reserves by 705 billion yuan, while non - financial institution deposits may slightly supplement over - reserves by 215 billion yuan [1][59]. 3.3.3 Fiscal Factors: Large - Scale Government Bond Issuance, Fiscal Expenditure Concentrated at Quarter - End - The government bonds' net financing scale in July 2025 may rise to around 1.6 trillion yuan, and the government deposits may freeze around 9000 billion yuan of liquidity, putting pressure on the capital market [60]. 3.3.4 Comprehensive Judgment: Pay Attention to the Impact of Large - Scale Payments - The overall capital gap in July is estimated to be around 2.4 trillion yuan. After a slight easing at the beginning of July, the funds will converge upwards, and the room for further easing is limited. The capital disturbance in the middle of the month, especially due to tax payments and government bond payments, deserves attention [1][2][67].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 454.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40% on June 3, resulting in a net withdrawal of 375.5 billion yuan due to 830 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - In May, the PBOC implemented a total of 700 billion yuan in buyout reverse repos, with 400 billion yuan for 3 months and 300 billion yuan for 6 months, leading to a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan for the month [1] - The PBOC's actions in May included a 0.1 percentage point interest rate cut and a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio reduction, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity, indicating a continued supportive stance on liquidity [1] Group 2 - The PBOC is closely monitoring changes in overseas central bank policies and is utilizing various monetary policy tools to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [2] - In June, there is no overall liquidity gap expected, but fluctuations may occur due to concentrated fiscal spending at the end of the month [2] - The net financing scale for government bonds in June is estimated at 963 billion yuan, a significant decrease from 1.49 trillion yuan in May, but fiscal spending is expected to provide some support to liquidity [3] Group 3 - As of June 3, the weighted average interest rate for 7-day pledged repos (DR007) was 1.5496%, down from 1.6645% on May 30 [4]