Core Viewpoint - The latest C50 Wind Index indicates that liquidity pressure in November is expected to increase compared to October, with a liquidity gap around 2 trillion yuan, as many market institutions anticipate seasonal pressures due to the maturity of financial instruments [1][2][3]. Liquidity Conditions - In October, the central bank maintained a relatively proactive liquidity injection strategy, with a net injection of 4,000 billion yuan, the largest monthly value since March 2025 [2]. - The central bank's operations included a 1.1 trillion yuan front-loaded reverse repo to ease the liquidity pressure at the beginning of the month [2]. - The liquidity gap for November is projected to be around 2 trillion yuan, with some institutions suggesting it could exceed 3 trillion yuan [3]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank has restarted open market operations for government bonds, which many institutions believe could replace the need for a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut [1][7]. - The necessity for an RRR cut in the fourth quarter is perceived to be lower, with 17 out of 20 institutions indicating a reduced likelihood of such a move [7][8]. - Analysts suggest that the resumption of government bond trading may serve as a substitute for RRR cuts, allowing for continued liquidity support without aggressive monetary easing [8][9]. Market Reactions - The bond market is expected to experience renewed downward trends, with the 10-year government bond yield potentially approaching the low of 1.7% seen in August [9]. - The overall sentiment in the market indicates that while the central bank's easing measures may be less aggressive, the need for monetary policy support remains due to ongoing economic challenges [9].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is managing significant liquidity events this week, with nearly 20 trillion yuan in funds maturing, indicating a focus on maintaining stable liquidity in the market [1] Group 1: Market Operations - This week, the PBOC has 10,210 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing, with 6,120 billion yuan maturing on Thursday and 4,090 billion yuan on Friday [1] - Additionally, 1,500 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits will mature on Wednesday, and 8,000 billion yuan in 91-day reverse repos will mature on Tuesday [1] - Last week, the PBOC conducted 11,370 billion yuan in reverse repos and 11,000 billion yuan in 91-day reverse repos, with a total of 26,633 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4,263 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Liquidity Outlook - CITIC Securities commented that the liquidity gap in October may be weaker than seasonal trends, suggesting limited risks of liquidity tightening due to the PBOC's accommodative monetary policy stance [1] - The overall net financing of government bonds in October is expected to be around 600 billion yuan, as local government bond issuance plans and national bond issuance patterns indicate a reduction in supply pressure [1] - Excluding the impact of Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and reverse repos maturing, the estimated liquidity gap for October is approximately 500 billion yuan, although fiscal spending may cause disturbances later in the month [1]

Core Viewpoint - The liquidity gap in October is expected to be weaker than seasonal trends, with limited risks of liquidity tightening due to the central bank's accommodative monetary policy stance [1] Group 1: Liquidity Analysis - The overall net financing of government bonds in October is projected to be approximately 600 billion yuan, considering the easing supply pressure from local government bond issuance plans [1] - The estimated liquidity gap for October is around 500 billion yuan, excluding factors such as the maturity of Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and reverse repos [1] - Fiscal spending is expected to be delayed, which may cause disturbances around mid-month [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the liquidity gap in October may be weaker than seasonal trends, with the central bank's monetary policy remaining accommodative, suggesting limited risks of liquidity tightening and a likely stable funding environment [1] - Government debt supply pressure is easing, with an estimated overall net financing of approximately 600 billion yuan in October based on local government bond issuance plans and national bond issuance patterns [1] - Excluding factors such as the maturity of Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and reverse repos, the liquidity gap for October is projected to be around 500 billion yuan, although fiscal spending timing may cause some disturbances mid-month [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has conducted a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a three-month term, indicating a proactive approach to manage liquidity in October, which is expected to face significant seasonal cash demand due to the holiday period [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - The PBOC's operation involved a fixed amount and interest rate bidding with multiple price levels, aimed at addressing liquidity needs [1] - Following the operation, there will be a net increase of 300 billion yuan in three-month reverse repos for October, considering the 800 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing this month [1] Group 2: Economic Analysis - According to the chief economist at CITIC Securities, the seasonal increase in cash demand due to the October holidays may lead to a significant liquidity gap [1] - The report suggests that the PBOC will continue to support liquidity through various tools, including open market operations and medium-term lending facilities, to maintain stable funding rates and policy interest rate spreads [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a three-month term, indicating a proactive approach to manage liquidity in October, especially considering the seasonal increase in cash demand post-holidays [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - The PBOC's operation involved a fixed amount and interest rate bidding, with multiple price-level bidding, aimed at addressing liquidity needs [1] - Following the maturity of 800 billion yuan in three-month reverse repos in October, the operation results in a net increase of 300 billion yuan in three-month reverse repos for the month [1] Group 2: Economic Analysis - According to the chief economist at CITIC Securities, the seasonal rise in cash demand due to the October holidays is expected to create a significant liquidity gap [1] - The report suggests that the PBOC will continue to support liquidity through various tools, including open market operations and medium-term lending facilities, while maintaining stable funding rates and policy rate spreads [1]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed signs of recovery after the National Day holiday, with government bond futures rising across the board and interbank bond yields declining by 1-2 basis points [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract up 0.46% at 114.530, the 10-year main contract up 0.15% at 108.045, the 5-year main contract up 0.07% at 105.730, and the 2-year main contract up 0.02% at 102.394 [2]. - Major interbank bond yields generally decreased, with the 30-year government bond yield down 1.25 basis points to 2.117%, the 10-year policy bank bond yield down 0.65 basis points to 1.956%, and the 10-year government bond yield down 1 basis point to 1.773% [2]. Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The central bank announced a net withdrawal of 14,513 billion yuan in a single day, indicating a seasonal widening of liquidity gaps in October [1][4]. - The central bank conducted a 61.2 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a total of 20,633 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing on the same day [4]. - The central bank's announcement of a buyout reverse repurchase operation before the holiday signals a commitment to maintaining ample liquidity in the banking system [4]. Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities believes that the fundamentals and supply conditions are favorable for bonds in October, with stable liquidity and potential for interest rate cuts and bond purchases [7]. - CITIC Securities notes that seasonal cash demand and increased fiscal deposits may lead to a significant liquidity gap, prompting the central bank's actions to signal a supportive monetary policy [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The capital market in September 2025 tightened slightly compared to August, but the tightening amplitude was limited compared to the historical average. The central bank's net capital injection was relatively high, and the capital stratification pressure remained low. In October, the capital market may maintain a marginal tightening trend, with the capital center likely to remain stable or rise slightly [2][6] 9 - Month Review: Marginal Tightening Compared to August - **Capital Rate Central Uplift**: In September, the central points of various - term capital rates increased slightly. The operating central points of DR001, DR007, and DR014 rose by 4bp, 1bp, and 3bp respectively. The upward deviation of DR007 from the OMO 7 - day rate widened slightly to 9bp [2][12] - **Limited Tightening Compared to History**: Historically, the deviation of DR007 from the policy rate in September usually widens compared to August. However, in 2025, the tightening amplitude of the capital rate was lower than the historical average since 2016 [2][17] - **High Central Bank Net Investment**: As of the 28th, the central bank's net capital injection in September reached 97.6 billion yuan, second only to September 2023. The capital market showed a different trend from previous years, with an upward trend around the tax period and a slight decline at the end of the month [2][20] - **Increase in Inter - bank Certificate of Deposit Yields**: The central points of inter - bank certificate of deposit yields for various terms increased significantly compared to August. The issuance rates of inter - bank certificates of deposit of various banks also showed an upward trend, indicating some pressure on the liability side of banks before the quarter - end [3][23] - **Low Capital Stratification Pressure**: The R - DR spread remained at a low level. The spread between R001 and DR001 narrowed slightly, while the spread between R007 and DR007 widened slightly, but overall, the stratification pressure was at a historical low [3] 10 - Month Outlook: May Maintain a Marginal Tightening Trend - **Historical Experience of Horizontal Movement of Shibor 3M**: Since May 2025, Shibor 3M has been horizontally moving for nearly 90 days and started to rise at the end of September. Historically, after horizontal movement, capital rates mostly declined, but the two instances of decline within 30 days after horizontal movement both occurred in October [4] - **Seasonal Pattern in October**: Seasonally, the capital market in October usually tightens. The spread between Shibor 3M and the OMO 7 - day rate in October usually widens compared to September, with an average increase of 10bp since 2018. The capital rate often shows a flat trend in the first half of the month and an upward trend in the second half [5] - **Credit and Capital Relationship**: If credit rebounds in the fourth quarter, the capital rate may rise. The growth rate of social financing stock peaked and declined in August. As debt replacement ends in the fourth quarter, corporate credit may bottom out and rebound. Historically, the trend of Shibor 3M is generally consistent with the growth rates of social financing stock and corporate medium - and long - term loans [5] - **Analysis of Liquidity Gap**: In October, the net financing pressure of government bonds will decrease significantly. However, as it is a large tax - paying month at the beginning of the quarter, the liquidity gap may be about 90 billion yuan. Considering the maturity of various monetary tools, the liquidity gap will increase to 3.1 trillion yuan. Assuming equal - amount renewal, the estimated excess reserve ratio in September is about 1.06% [52][54]

Market Performance - The bond market showed mixed performance on September 4, with interbank cash bonds initially strong but yields rising in the afternoon, while government bond futures mostly closed higher [1] - The 30-year main contract rose by 0.26% to 117.330, the 10-year main contract increased by 0.13% to 108.260, and the 5-year main contract went up by 0.06% to 105.755, while the 2-year main contract fell by 0.01% to 102.432 [2] Yield Movements - The yield on the 10-year China Development Bank bond rose by 1.1 basis points to 1.857%, while the 10-year government bond yield increased by 0.5 basis points to 1.7525% [2] - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield fell by 4.2 basis points to 3.538%, and the 10-year German bond yield decreased by 4.6 basis points to 2.737% [3] - In Asia, the 10-year Japanese bond yield dropped by 3.7 basis points to 1.593% [4] Primary Market - The China Development Bank's three financial bonds had winning yields mostly below the China Bond valuation, with yields of 1.3519%, 1.6702%, and 1.87% for 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year bonds respectively [5] - The bidding multiples for Hebei Province's local bonds exceeded 20 times, with a 10-year bond yield of 1.99% and a 15-year bond yield of 2.22% [5] Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 2126 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 2035 billion yuan for the day [6] - Short-term Shibor rates mostly rose, with the overnight rate unchanged at 1.316% and the 7-day rate up by 0.4 basis points to 1.437% [6] Institutional Insights - Citic Securities noted that the liquidity gap in September may narrow compared to August, with limited government bond supply disturbances and a supportive monetary policy [7] - Shenwan Hongyuan pointed out that the low interest rate environment has led to significant changes in asset allocation behavior, with funds seeking better alternatives due to low returns on deposits and pure bonds [8]

Group 1 - The central bank maintains a relatively loose liquidity stance, with market institutions expecting no tightening of funds in August [1][2] - The liquidity gap in August is estimated to be around 200 billion yuan, indicating manageable pressure [1] - Government bond issuance is expected to peak in August, with net financing around 1.2 trillion yuan, contributing to the liquidity landscape [2] Group 2 - The banking sector is anticipated to face increased pressure due to high government bond supply, with monthly net financing potentially reaching 1.5 to 1.6 trillion yuan [2] - The central bank may utilize various liquidity management tools, including OMO, MLF, and reverse repos, to stabilize the market [2] - Recent economic data does not support a shift in monetary policy, reinforcing the expectation of stable liquidity conditions [2][3] Group 3 - Risks to liquidity are more influenced by institutional market behavior rather than fiscal and monetary policies, highlighting the need to monitor bank liabilities and lending capabilities [3] - The decline in deposit rates and the siphoning effect from the equity market may exacerbate deposit outflows, particularly affecting joint-stock banks [3] - The recent reduction in leverage in the bond market is expected to help control the sensitivity of institutions to fluctuations in funding rates [3]