（作者单位：中原期货） 本周，央行有7118亿元逆回购到期。前两个工作日，央行已经通过逆回购操作向市场投放8468亿元流动 性，周内大概率通过逆回购投放大量流动性，有助于平抑短端利率上行趋势。 （文章来源：期货日报） 央行公布的数据显示，7月社会融资规模为11600亿元，同比上升9%，且今年以来月度社会融资规模同 比增速除5月持平外，其他月份都在上升，说明中长期融资需求回暖。 近期，国内资金市场利率呈现全面上升态势。一方面，月中缴税、缴款叠加国债发行，短端利率回升； 另一方面，融资需求持续回暖，股市稳步攀升，进一步提振市场信心，中长端利率稳中有升。截至8月 19日，上海银行间同业拆放利率（Shibor）隔夜、1周期、2周期、1月期、3月期、6月期、9月期、1年 期利率分别报收于1464%、1.517%、1.599%、1.528%、1.55%、1.61%、1.637%、1.647%，较8月12日分 别上升14.9、8.4、14.3、0.1、0.2、0.1、0.8、0.9个基点。 未来，预计国内市场资金利率呈短弱长强格局。一方面，月中缴税、缴款高峰期结束，央行加大逆回购 投放力度，短端利率将随之回落；另一方面，融 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - No explicit core viewpoints are presented in the provided content. The report mainly offers data on global asset market performance, including bond yields, exchange - rates, stock indices, and futures trading data. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - year Treasury Yields of Major Economies**: On August 15, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.319%, 4.696%, 3.467% respectively. The latest changes, weekly changes, monthly changes, and annual changes varied among different countries. For example, the US had a latest change of 0.033, a weekly change of 0.035, a monthly change of - 0.099, and an annual change of 0.375 [3]. - **2 - year Treasury Yields of Major Economies**: The 2 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc. on August 15, 2025, were 3.927%, 1.970%, 0.822% respectively. Similar to the 10 - year yields, the changes in different time - frames differed across countries [3]. - **Exchange Rates of the US Dollar Against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: On August 15, 2025, the exchange rates against South Africa's ZAR, Brazil, Russia, etc. were presented, along with their latest, weekly, monthly, and annual changes. For instance, against South Africa's ZAR, the latest change was - 0.29%, the weekly change was - 0.61%, the monthly change was - 4.12%, and the annual change was not provided in the context [3]. - **Stock Indices of Major Economies**: Stock indices such as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, France CAC, etc. had their closing prices on August 15, 2025, and their latest, weekly, monthly, and annual changes. For example, the Dow Jones closed at 6449.800, with a latest change of - 0.29%, a weekly change of 0.94%, a monthly change of 2.43%, and an annual change of 24.05% [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: The indices of emerging economies' investment - grade and high - yield credit bonds, US investment - grade and high - yield credit bonds, and euro - zone investment - grade and high - yield credit bonds had their latest, weekly, monthly, and annual changes. For example, the emerging economies' investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of - 0.10%, a weekly change of 0.19%, a monthly change of 1.48%, and an annual change of 5.08% [3][4]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 were provided. For example, the A - share closed at 3696.77 with a 0.83% increase [5]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) and their环比 changes of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and Germany DAX were presented. For example, the PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 13.46 with a 0.04环比 change [5]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premiums (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) and their环比 changes of S&P 500 and Germany DAX were given. For example, the risk premium of S&P 500 was - 0.66 with a - 0.02环比 change [5]. - **Fund Flow**: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in A - shares, the main board, small and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 were provided. For example, the latest fund flow in A - shares was 931.56, and the 5 - day average was - 217.38 [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small and medium - sized board, and ChiNext were presented. For example, the latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 22446.12 with a - 345.97环比 change [5]. - **Main Contract Basis and Spread**: The basis and spread of IF, IH, and IC were provided. For example, the basis of IF was 7.05 with a 0.17% spread [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices and percentage changes of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were presented. For example, T00 closed at 108.295 with a - 0.10% change [6]. - The money market interest rates (R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M) and their daily changes (BP) were provided. For example, R001 was 1.4391% with a - 3.00 BP daily change [6].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Group 2: Core Views - No clear core views are presented in the provided content. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Data - 10 - year Treasury bond futures (T2509.CFE) had a Friday settlement price of 108.325 with a -0.26% weekly decline; T2512.CFE settled at 108.225 with a -0.26% weekly decline [7]. - 5 - year Treasury bond futures (TF2509.CFE) settled at 105.675 with a -0.14% weekly decline; TF2512.CFE settled at 105.670 with a -0.19% weekly decline [7]. - 2 - year Treasury bond futures (TS2509.CFE) settled at 102.346 with a -0.02% weekly decline; TS2512.CFE settled at 102.384 with a -0.05% weekly decline [7]. - 30 - year Treasury bond futures (TL2509.CFE) settled at 117.660 with a -1.33% weekly decline; TL2512.CFE settled at 117.210 with a -1.40% weekly decline [7]. Spread Data - The T2509 - T2512 inter - delivery spread was 0.100 with no weekly change; TF2509 - TF2512 was 0.005 with a -1.143 weekly change; TS2509 - TS2512 was -0.038 with a -0.095 weekly change [7]. - The 2TS - T cross - variety spread was 301.059 with a 0.189 weekly increase; 2TF - T was 103.025 with a -0.005 weekly change; TS - TF was 99.017 with a 0.097 weekly increase [7]. Spot Bond Yields - 1Y Treasury bond yield was 1.37% with a 1.32 BP weekly increase; 2Y was 1.40% with a 0.72 BP increase; 3Y was 1.41% with a -0.65 BP decrease [7]. - 5Y Treasury bond yield was 1.59% with a 4.92 BP increase; 7Y was 1.69% with a 3.70 BP increase; 10Y was 1.75% with a 5.80 BP increase; 30Y was 2.05% with a 9.05 BP increase [7]. - 1Y China Development Bank bond yield was 1.53% with a 3.18 BP increase; 3Y was 1.66% with a 2.93 BP increase; 5Y was 1.74% with a 7.47 BP increase [7]. - 7Y China Development Bank bond yield was 1.86% with a 6.83 BP increase; 10Y was 1.86% with a 7.87 BP increase; 30Y was 2.15% with a 9.80 BP increase [7]. Funding Rates - The inter - bank pledged repo rate DROO1 was 1.40% with a 9.03 BP weekly increase; DR007 was 1.48% with a 5.47 BP increase; DR014 was 1.51% with a 3.28 BP increase [7]. - SHIBOR1M was 1.53% with a 0.04 BP increase; SHIBOR3N was 1.55% with a -0.74 BP decrease [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (August 11 - 15), the capital interest rate increased, the average daily lending of large - scale banks rose month - on - month, and funds slightly reduced leverage. - The maturity of certificates of deposit (CDs) increased, and the maturity yields of most CDs with various tenors rose. - In the spot bond trading, the main buyers were money market funds, mainly increasing their holdings of CDs. Funds mainly net sold 7 - 10Y and 20 - 30Y interest - rate bonds, rural commercial banks increased their holdings of 7 - 10Y interest - rate bonds, insurance companies increased their holdings of ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds, and large - scale banks increased their purchases of 1 - 3Y interest - rate bonds. [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monetary Capital - **Open - market operations**: A total of 1.1267 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases matured this week. The central bank cumulatively injected 711.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases from Monday to Friday, and 50 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases on Friday, with a net liquidity injection of 85.1 billion yuan for the whole week. [5][8] - **Capital price**: As of August 15, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.44%, 1.49%, 1.4%, and 1.48% respectively, up 9.78BP, 3.2BP, 9.03BP, and 5.47BP from August 8, and were at the 19%, 8%, 17%, and 3% historical percentiles respectively. [5][11] - **Large - scale bank lending**: From August 11 to 15, the total lending scale of large - scale banks was 24.54 trillion yuan, with a daily maximum of 5 trillion yuan and an average daily lending of 4.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 140 billion yuan from the previous week's average. [5][14] - **Pledged repurchase**: The trading volume of pledged repurchase increased, with an average daily trading volume of 8.15 trillion yuan and a daily maximum of 8.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.52% from the previous week's average. The proportion of overnight repurchase transactions decreased, with an average daily proportion of 89.8%, a daily maximum of 90.6%, and a decrease of 0.05 percentage points from the previous week's average. As of August 15, it was at the 88.6% percentile. [5][16] 3.2 Certificates of Deposit and Bills - **Issuance and financing**: The issuance scale of CDs this week was basically the same as last week, but the net financing decreased. The total issuance was 774.73 billion yuan, a decrease of 300 million yuan from the previous week; the net financing was - 130.91 billion yuan, a decrease of 307.67 billion yuan from the previous week. [5][18] - **Maturity scale**: The maturity volume of CDs increased this week, with a total of 905.64 billion yuan, an increase of 307.37 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week (August 18 - 22), 794.72 billion yuan of CDs will mature. [18][23] - **Maturity yield**: As of August 15, the maturity yields of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y CDs of AAA - rated commercial banks were 1.46%, 1.53%, 1.6%, 1.64%, and 1.64% respectively, up 1.1BP, - 0.5BP, 1.26BP, 1.76BP, and 2.25BP from August 8. [5][31] - **Bill interest rate**: As of August 15, the 3M direct - discount rate, 3M transfer - discount rate, 6M direct - discount rate, and 6M transfer - discount rate of national - owned stocks were 1.13%, 0.95%, 0.7%, and 0.63% respectively, down 11BP, 12BP, 7BP, and 7BP from August 8. [5][33] 3.3 Institutional Behavior Tracking - **Leverage ratio**: The inter - bank leverage ratio and the broad - based fund leverage ratio decreased slightly. As of August 15, the inter - bank total leverage ratio in the bond market decreased by 0.20 percentage points to 106.71% from August 8, at the 39.40% historical percentile since 2021. The bank, securities, insurance, and broad - based fund leverage ratios were 103.9%, 187.8%, 129.3%, and 104.9% respectively, with month - on - month changes of 0.26BP, - 10.62BP, 1.16BP, and - 0.19BP from August 8, and were at the 43%, 1%, 76%, and 20% historical percentiles respectively. [36][38] - **Duration adjustment**: Funds reduced duration, while rural commercial banks and insurance companies increased duration. As of August 15, the weighted average net - purchase duration (MA = 10) of funds was 0 years, a significant decrease from 4.23 years on August 8, at the 23% historical percentile; that of rural commercial banks was 3.26 years, turning positive from August 8, at the 82% historical percentile; that of insurance companies was 10.58 years, an increase from August 8, at the 77% historical percentile. [5][40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The central bank's attitude towards protecting the liquidity is clear, and the capital interest rate is expected to decline in August [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overseas Key Monetary Market Indicator Change Tracking - The Fed did not cut interest rates in July, and the short - term interest rate of US Treasury bonds remained stable. Since July, the 3 - month US Treasury bond rate has been stable, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September. The US federal funds rate and SOFR rate have been operating stably [2][6]. - The benchmark interest rates of Japan, the eurozone, and the US as of specific dates are 0.5% (Japan: policy target rate of base money on 2025 - 01 - 24), 2.15% (eurozone: benchmark interest rate of main refinancing operations on 2025 - 6 - 5), and 4.25 - 4.50% (US: federal funds target rate range on 2024 - 12 - 18) [8]. Domestic Key Monetary Market Indicator Change Tracking Price Indicators - After crossing the end of the half - year, in July, the average values of repurchase rates in the inter - bank and exchange markets mostly declined. R001, GC001, R007, and GC007 monthly average values changed by - 3BP, - 25BP, - 10BP, and - 14BP respectively [2][10][15]. - The monthly average values of short - term bond yields mostly declined. For 1 - year short - term bonds such as 1 - year Treasury bonds, 1 - year China Development Bank bonds, and 1 - year AAA commercial paper, their yields decreased to different degrees [15][36]. - In July, the average value of DR007 decreased slightly. The average values of DR001 and DR007 were 1.39% and 1.52%, changing by 0BP and - 6BP respectively compared with the previous month. The 1 - day and 7 - day spread averages of R and DR changed by - 4BP [22]. - The average value of exchange repurchase rates mostly declined in July. The average values of GC001 and GC007 were 1.45% and 1.54%, down 25BP and 14BP respectively from the previous month [26]. - The average monthly interest rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) decreased slightly in July. The interest rates of 1 - year high - grade and low - grade CDs both decreased by 3BP [31]. - The 7 - day annualized yield of money funds declined. The 7 - day average annualized yield of Yu'E Bao decreased to 1.09% in July, and the average 7 - day annualized yields of Yu'E Bao and the top ten money funds decreased by - 9BP and - 7BP respectively compared with the previous month [39]. Quantity Indicators - In July, the overnight trading volumes in the inter - bank and exchange markets decreased compared with the previous month, while their proportions increased. The average daily trading volume of R001 in the inter - bank market was 6.70 trillion, accounting for 88.3%, and that of GC001 in the exchange market was 1.86 trillion, accounting for 87.0% [44]. - The average monthly year - on - year balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank and exchange markets decreased compared with the previous month. The year - on - year balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank market decreased by 3% in July, and that in the exchange market decreased by 2% [51]. - The excess deposit reserve ratio decreased compared with the previous month. It is estimated that the excess deposit reserve ratios in July and August are 1.3% and 1.2% respectively. In July, fiscal deposits increased seasonally by 770 billion yuan due to tax payment periods and high government bond issuance [48][50]. Capital Outlook Five - Channel Prediction - **M0**: In July, M0 increased seasonally by 9.73 billion yuan, and it is estimated to increase by 5.5 billion yuan in August [63]. - **Legal Deposit Reserves**: In July, RMB loans declined for the first time in nearly 20 years, and financial institutions' RMB deposits increased by 500 billion yuan. It is expected that deposits will increase by 2500 billion yuan in August, resulting in an increase of 155 billion yuan in legal deposit reserves [64]. - **Fiscal Deposits**: Fiscal deposits increased by 770 billion yuan in July due to tax payment periods and high - volume government bond issuance. It is expected to increase by 600 billion yuan in August [67]. - **Foreign Exchange Holdings**: Due to the suspension of China - US tariff negotiations for 90 days, the increase of the average global tariff rate by the US, and the new 40% transit tariff, foreign exchange holdings are expected to decrease by 70 billion yuan in August [72]. - **Open Market Operations**: The central bank is expected to conduct net injections to maintain a loose capital market. In July, the central bank conducted net injections through open - market operations and买断式repurchase operations. It is expected to conduct net injections of 400 billion yuan in August through these two methods, and the excess deposit reserve ratio is estimated to be 1.2% in August after comprehensive consideration of the five - channel changes [80]. Main Conclusion - Historically, in August, most of the inter - bank overnight repurchase rates declined. The median monthly average change of R001 in the past three years was - 4BP, and that of R007 was - 2BP [81]. - The central bank's operation on the first - round local bond issuance day after the restoration of VAT on government bonds and financial bonds shows a clear attitude of maintaining a stable and loose liquidity. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is high, which provides space for China's monetary policy. It is expected that the market interest rate will decline seasonally in August [84][85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the performance data of various global asset markets on August 13, 2025, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading data [3][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance Bond Yields - **10 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: Yields of major economies showed different changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the US 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 4.235 on August 13, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.056, a weekly change of 0.006, a monthly change of - 0.222, and a yearly change of 0.446 [3] - **2 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: Similar to the 10 - year bonds, yields of different countries had varying changes. The US 2 - year Treasury bond yield was 3.760 on August 13, 2025, with a latest change of 0.000, a weekly change of 0.070, a monthly change of - 0.150, and a yearly change of - 0.400 [3] Exchange Rates - **Dollar against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: The dollar's exchange rates against currencies like the Brazilian real, Russian ruble, South African rand, etc., had different changes. For example, the dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate was 5.398 on August 13, 2025, with a latest change of 0.16%, a weekly change of - 1.21%, a monthly change of - 3.07%, and a yearly change of - 5.68% [3] - **Renminbi**: The on - shore, off - shore, and middle - price of the renminbi, as well as the 12 - month NDF, also had their respective values and changes on August 13, 2025 [3] Stock Indices - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: Stock indices of major economies such as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq showed positive changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the Dow Jones index was 6466.580 on August 13, 2025, with a latest change of 0.32%, a weekly change of 1.92%, a monthly change of 3.24%, and a yearly change of 24.69% [3] - **Other Stock Indices**: Including the Russian index, Nikkei, Hang Seng Index, etc., also had their own performance and changes [3] Credit Bond Indices - Credit bond indices of emerging economies and developed economies had different values and changes on August 13, 2025. For example, the emerging economies' investment - grade credit bond index was 3467.280, with a latest change of 0.46%, a weekly change of 0.29%, a monthly change of 2.08%, and a yearly change of 4.65% [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 had their closing prices, price changes, and other data. For example, the CSI 300 index closed at 4176.58 on August 13, 2025, with a price change of 0.79% [5] - **Valuation**: PE (TTM) and risk premiums of different indices were presented, along with their changes [5] - **Fund Flows**: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in different markets were given [5] - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes and their changes of different markets were provided [5] - **Main Contract Premiums and Discounts**: The basis and basis spreads of IF, IH, and IC were shown [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - Treasury bond futures T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 had their closing prices and price changes on August 13, 2025 [6] - **Funding Rates**: R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M had their rates and daily changes [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that since August, the open market operations have consistently pointed towards a net withdrawal of liquidity, with a total net withdrawal exceeding 26,265 billion yuan by August 12 [1][2][3] - Despite the net withdrawal, the funding prices in the interbank market have remained low and are on a downward trend, with the average DR007 rate at 1.4660% and DR001 at 1.2880% as of August 12 [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the prolonged decline in funding rates reflects the expectations of primary dealers regarding future funding rates and indicates the monetary authority's stance on liquidity management [1][3] Group 2 - The analysis highlights that the liquidity in the banking system has been relatively abundant since early August, with the average DR007 rate decreasing by 11.9 basis points compared to the previous months [2][3] - The People's Bank of China has been actively managing liquidity, as evidenced by the announcement of a 7,000 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on August 7, despite already ample liquidity conditions [4][6] - Large banks have significantly increased their net lending, contributing to the overall liquidity in the market, with net lending levels returning to 50,000 billion yuan [7]

1. Global Asset Market Performance 1.1 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On August 8, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.284%, 4.600%, 3.348% respectively. The latest changes were 0.033, 0.054, 0.053; weekly changes were 0.066, 0.074, 0.002; monthly changes were - 0.127, - 0.021, - 0.064; and annual changes were 0.252, 0.631, 0.337 [3]. 1.2 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - As of August 8, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany were 3.690, 3.896, 1.952 respectively. The latest changes were - 0.030, 0.023, 0.036; weekly changes were - 0.250, 0.107, 0.027; monthly changes were - 0.190, 0.045, 0.056; and annual changes were - 0.670, 0.090, - 0.573 [3]. 1.3 Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - On August 8, 2025, the dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate was 5.435, with a latest change of 0.18%, a weekly change of - 1.94%, a monthly change of - 2.25%, and an annual change of - 3.82%. Similar data were provided for other currencies like the Russian ruble, South African rand, etc. [3]. 1.4 Stock Indices of Major Economies - On August 8, 2025, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq were 6389.450, 44175.610, 21450.020 respectively. The latest changes were 0.78%, 0.47%, 0.98%; weekly changes were 2.43%, 1.35%, 3.87%; monthly changes were 2.07%, - 0.44%, 4.20%; and annual changes were 15.70%, 8.16%, 21.88% [3]. 1.5 Credit Bond Indices - The latest changes of the US investment - grade credit bond index, euro - area investment - grade credit bond index, etc. were - 0.24%, - 0.15%, etc.; weekly changes were - 0.12%, 0.08%, etc.; monthly changes were 1.45%, 0.45%, etc.; and annual changes were 5.06%, 4.83%, etc. [3][4] 2. Stock Index Futures Trading Data 2.1 Index Performance - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 3635.13, 4104.97, 2789.17 respectively. The corresponding percentage changes were - 0.12%, - 0.24%, - 0.33% [5]. 2.2 Valuation - The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were 13.31, 11.47, 30.52 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.02, - 0.02, - 0.06 [5]. 2.3 Risk Premium - The risk premium (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of the S&P 500 and German DAX were - 0.59 and 2.68 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.06 and - 0.03 [5]. 2.4 Fund Flows - The latest values of fund flows for A - shares, the main board, and SMEs were - 731.15, - 338.22, etc., and the 5 - day average values were - 266.18, - 179.38, etc. [5]. 2.5 Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, and SSE 50 were 17102.27, 3085.08, 828.05 respectively, with环比 changes of - 1152.63, - 496.00, - 114.17 [5]. 2.6 Main Contract Basis and Spread - The basis of IF, IH, and IC were - 21.77, - 3.77, - 96.50 respectively, with spreads of - 0.53%, - 0.14%, - 1.53% [5] 3. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 108.640, 105.840, 108.535, 105.895 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.06%, 0.05%, 0.06%, 0.06% [6]. - The funding rates of R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.3413%, 1.4538%, 1.5544% respectively, with daily changes of - 14.00, - 3.00, - 1.00 [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Data - **Futures Settlement Prices and Weekly Changes**: 10 - year Treasury bond futures T2509.CFE settled at 108.61 with a 0.15% weekly increase, T2512.CFE at 108.505 with a 0.07% increase; 5 - year Treasury bond futures TF2509.CFE at 105.82 with a 0.09% increase, TF2512.CFE at 105.875 with a 0.09% increase; 2 - year Treasury bond futures TS2509.CFE at 102.37 with a 0.02% increase, TS2512.CFE at 102.436 with a 0.04% increase; 30 - year Treasury bond futures TL2509.CFE at 119.25 with a 0.13% increase, TL2512.CFE at 118.880 with a 0.05% increase [7] - **Spread Data**: The T2509 - T2512 inter - term spread was 0.105 with a weekly decline of 0.523; TF2509 - TF2512 was - 0.055 with a decline of 12.000; TS2509 - TS2512 was - 0.066 with an increase of 7.250. The 2TS - T cross - variety spread was 300.870 with a decline of 0.088; 2TF - T was 103.030 with an increase of 0.020; TS - TF was 98.920 with a decline of 0.054 [7] - **Spot Bond Yields**: The 1Y Treasury bond yield was 1.35% with a weekly decline of 1.99 BP; 2Y was 1.40% with a decline of 2.69 BP; 3Y was 1.42% with a decline of 2.86 BP; 5Y was 1.54% with a decline of 2.39 BP; 7Y was 1.65% with a decline of 1.67 BP; 10Y was 1.69% with a decline of 1.88 BP; 30Y was 1.96% with an increase of 0.90 BP. The 1Y China Development Bank bond yield was 1.50% with an increase of 0.04 BP; 3Y was 1.63% with a decline of 0.99 BP; 5Y was 1.66% with a decline of 0.62 BP; 7Y was 1.79% with a decline of 0.01 BP; 10Y was 1.78% with an increase of 1.59 BP; 30Y was 2.05% with an increase of 0.16 BP [7] - **Funding Rates**: The DR001 inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.31% with a weekly decline of 0.23 BP; DR007 was 1.43% with an increase of 0.09 BP; DR014 was 1.47% with a decline of 6.13 BP. The SHIBOR1M rate was 1.53% with a decline of 2.34 BP; SHIBOR3N was 1.55% with a decline of 0.86 BP [7] 2. CPI and PPI Data - **CPI Data**: The CPI in July was 0.4%, up 0.5 pct compared to the previous period, and the CPI in February 2024 was 0.8%, up 0.4 pct compared to the previous period. There were also various historical CPI data comparisons [21] - **PPI Data**: The PPI had changes such as a 0.4 pct change to - 0.2%, a 1 pct change to - 0.2 pct, etc [24]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the bond market may reach its peak moment, becoming a decisive factor in the performance competition in the second half of the year. The opportunities in the first and middle ten - days of August may be greater, while the situation in the last ten - days needs further observation. With five major positive factors supporting, there is a 10 - 12bp downward space for the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds, and the potential returns are considerable when considering the duration [2][5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. July Bond Market: "Unjust Disaster" - The bond market in July went against market expectations. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds started at 1.64% and 1.85% respectively and rose to 1.75% and 2.00% by the end of the month, with an increase of 11bp and 15bp. The main reasons for the divergence between expectations and reality were the over - fermented risk appetite in the stock and commodity markets and the unexpected tightening of the capital market around the tax period [1][10]. - The bond market in July can be divided into three stages: a calm first ten - days, a turbulent middle ten - days, and a late ten - days when negative factors were released. In the late ten - days, affected by factors such as the start of a large - scale infrastructure project and the "anti - involution" trading, the bond market entered an irrational decline [11][12]. - In terms of various bond types, short - term bonds performed better than long - term bonds, and credit bonds outperformed interest - rate bonds. The yields of various bonds generally increased, and the 30 - year treasury bond had a single - month decline of 2.30%, making July the second - worst month for the bond market this year [15][16][18]. 2. Five Reasons to Be Bullish on the Bond Market in August 2.1. Do Not Underestimate the Change in the US Attitude on Tariff Issues - The result of the Sino - US tariff negotiation may become the main variable for asset pricing again. The US may use tariffs to seek benefits in investment or exports, which could damage global trade relations and create a negative atmosphere for Sino - US negotiations [2][21]. - In the new round of tariff negotiations, the US generally obtained favorable trade terms. This may make the US more aggressive in future Sino - US negotiations. If Sino - US relations deteriorate, it could suppress global and domestic risk preferences, which is beneficial to the bond market [22][24]. 2.2. The Fundamental Situation Weakens Marginally, but the Expectation of Policy Stimulus Retreats - The July PMI data showed that the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, lower than the expected 49.7%. The new orders and production in the manufacturing industry declined, indicating weak demand. The large - scale net purchase of bills by major banks in July and the decline of bill interest rates to near zero may also suggest weak loan demand [25][26]. - The Politburo meeting at the end of July gave an optimistic assessment of the first - half economy, which may make it difficult to introduce short - term "stable growth" policies. If the economic data in the third quarter fluctuates, there may be a time lag before stimulus policies are introduced, which could lead to a decline in risk preferences and be beneficial to the bond market [29]. 2.3. The Suppression of Risk Appetite Caused by "Anti - Involution" Trading Weakens - From July 1st to 25th, affected by "anti - involution" trading, the futures prices of key commodities such as coking coal, coke, and polysilicon increased significantly, and the extreme risk preferences in the market were rapidly boosted, which was the main reason for the sharp adjustment of the bond market [30]. - To suppress speculation, commodity exchanges issued relevant policies at the end of July. The first stage of the general rise in the commodity market may have passed, and the over - risen commodities have entered the price correction stage. The market risk preference has returned to rationality, reducing the resistance to the rise of the bond market [31][32]. 2.4. In Terms of Liquidity, August May Be the Low Point of the Annual Capital Interest Rate - Generally, the capital interest rate in August does not increase significantly compared with July. The natural capital gap in August is not large. Although the net issuance of government bonds may increase, it is offset by the lower tax payment. The MLF maturity scale in August is 3000 billion yuan, and the maturity pressure of repurchase agreements has eased, which is conducive to maintaining a neutral and loose capital interest rate [34][35]. - Historically, the R001 and R007 in August can generally remain stable, and the increase in the capital interest rate usually occurs before the end of the month. After August, the capital interest rate may fluctuate due to factors such as the quarter - end pressure in September and uncertainties in the fourth quarter. Therefore, August may be the low point of the annual capital interest rate [36][37]. 2.5. Pay Attention to the Return of Redeemed Funds and the New Premiums of Insurance "Cost - Reduction" - In July, the continuous redemption of public bond funds by institutions amplified the adjustment of the bond market. However, the redemption pressure may only be within the "institution - fund" circle and has not spread outward. The liability of wealth management products and banks remained stable. For example, wealth management products continued to increase their holdings of certificates of deposit in July [46][49][50]. - If the redeemed funds of funds remain in the inter - bank market, they may flow back to the trading market as the bond market recovers in August, which could push the interest rate down. In addition, due to the adjustment of the insurance product interest rate, the yields of ultra - long - term local bonds and ultra - long - term treasury bonds have risen to around or above the "new cost line" of life insurance, and the ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds may experience an excessive decline in August [50][55][57]. 3. The Bond Market in August May Reach Its Peak Moment: Grasping the Rhythm Is Key - With five major positive factors, the bond market in August may reach its peak moment. The opportunities in the first and middle ten - days of August are greater, while the situation in the late ten - days needs further observation. From the end of July to the beginning of August, although the bond market entered the recovery stage, institutions were still cautious about the duration [5][59]. - It is recommended to extend the duration as much as possible with active individual bonds within the acceptable risk range. The bond interest tax - payment new rule announced by the Ministry of Finance on August 1st may affect the pricing of treasury bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds in three stages, but it is not a negative factor for the bond market [59][63].