1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pressure on cross - Spring Festival funds is controllable. The overall liquidity in February is expected to remain stable, with the risk of significant fluctuations being under control, although attention should be paid to the capital arrangements of institutions in the last week before the festival and potential capital disturbances [4][71]. - In January, the central bank actively adjusted monetary policy tools. It cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The central bank also increased the scale of bond purchases to maintain liquidity [3][52]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 1 - Month Review of the Capital Market and Liquidity 3.1.1 Capital Market Review - In January 2026, the overnight capital fluctuated in a slightly wider range compared to the previous month, showing an oscillatory upward trend with a fluctuation range of 0.18%. The 7D capital fluctuated in a narrower range and basically remained stable around 1.5%. There was no inversion between overnight and 7D funds [10]. - At the beginning of the month, the central bank significantly withdrew cross - year funds, and the capital operation was generally stable and loose. In the middle of the month, due to the maturity of the 6M reverse repurchase and the freezing of funds for new stock subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange, there was a brief friction in the capital market. Later, with the net injection of funds, the liquidity gradually stabilized. Towards the end of the month, the pressure on capital increase was relatively controllable [2][11]. - The capital stratification pressure in January was at a seasonally low level. The spread between R007 and DR007 decreased, and the spread between GC007 and DR007 also compressed, both at seasonally low levels [16]. - The volatility of overnight and 7D funds was at a seasonally low level, and the daily average trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased slightly compared to the previous month [23][24]. - Banks' net lending scale remained relatively high, and the net lending scale of money market funds first increased and then decreased [30]. 3.1.2 Liquidity Review - **Liquidity Aggregate**: In January, the base money increased by 1.6 billion yuan. The government deposit consumed about 1.1 trillion yuan of the base money, the central bank's net injection was 1.19 trillion yuan, and the foreign exchange funds continued to be slightly withdrawn by 7 billion yuan. After considering factors such as reserve freezing, cash withdrawal, and changes in non - financial institution deposits, the excess reserve at the end of the month decreased by about 692 billion yuan, and the excess reserve ratio was about 1.3%, which was seasonally high. The narrow - sense excess reserve level after deducting reverse repurchases was about 0.7%, close to the seasonal level [33]. - **Open - Market Operations**: In January, the central bank slightly withdrew short - term reverse repurchases in the open market, with a net injection of - 3.22 billion yuan. The MLF was injected with 90 billion yuan and 20 billion yuan matured, with a balance of 6.95 trillion yuan. The 3M and 6M outright reverse repurchases had a net injection of 30 billion yuan in total. The central bank also increased its net purchase of national debt by 10 billion yuan and carried out operations such as treasury time deposits and PSL [39][44]. 3.2 1 - Month Monetary Policy Tracking - In January 2026, the central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 25bp. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year, as the exchange rate and net interest margin constraints have eased [3][52]. - The central bank continued its liquidity - caring approach, injecting 1 trillion yuan of medium - term liquidity through MLF and outright reverse repurchases. In January, the central bank increased its bond - buying scale to 10 billion yuan [3][52]. - The central bank may further create tools to provide liquidity support for non - bank institutions, and may refer to the SRF and some phased tools. It also promotes the interconnection of financial markets and supports the construction of the offshore RMB market [55]. 3.3 2 - Month Gap Prediction 3.3.1 Rigid Gap - In February, as it is a month with relatively less deposit growth, the increase in general deposits will consume about 3.45 billion yuan of excess reserves. The MLF maturity is 30 billion yuan, and the outright reverse repurchase maturity is 1.2 trillion yuan (70 billion yuan for 3M and 50 billion yuan for 6M), with 80 billion yuan of the 3M outright reverse repurchase being renewed [58]. 3.3.2 Exogenous Shocks - Due to the late Spring Festival this year, cash withdrawal and non - financial institution deposits will slightly consume excess reserves in February. The "currency issuance" item may consume about 1.2 trillion yuan of excess reserves, and non - financial institution deposits may consume about 9.65 billion yuan [62]. 3.3.3 Fiscal Factors - The government deposit may consume about 44.34 billion yuan of liquidity in February. Considering factors such as bond payment, tax revenue, and fiscal expenditure, the government bond issuance is relatively large this month [67]. 3.3.4 Comprehensive Judgment - The overall capital gap pressure in February is similar to that in January, mainly coming from the pressure of cash withdrawal before the Spring Festival and government bond payment. However, considering the current liquidity status of the banking system and the central bank's operation idea of maintaining sufficient liquidity, the cross - year funds are expected to remain stable, and the risk of significant fluctuations is controllable [70][71]. - Since January, the central bank has actively operated monetary policy tools, with an incremental injection of 1 trillion yuan through MLF and 6M outright reverse repurchases, and an increase in the bond - buying scale to 10 billion yuan. The 14D reverse repurchase was launched earlier before the Spring Festival, and the cross - Spring Festival pressure is controllable. However, the progress of cross - Spring Festival funds in the inter - bank market is relatively slow, and attention should be paid to the capital arrangements of institutions in the last week before the festival and potential capital disturbances [5][73].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the excess reserve ratio in December increased by 0.4 percentage points to 1.6%, which is relatively low for year-end months and below the expected 0.3 percentage points, primarily due to a lower-than-expected decline in government deposits [1][13][17] - In December, government deposits decreased by approximately 1 trillion, which is lower than the previously expected 2 trillion, reaching a historical high of 5 trillion [1][13][17] - The report highlights that the general public budget revenue and expenditure did not meet the annual budget targets, with the expenditure completion rate being the lowest in recent years, leading to a significant fiscal deficit of 2.66 trillion in December, exceeding expectations by about 500 billion [2][16][17] Group 2 - The report forecasts that the broad fiscal surplus for January is expected to be around 410 billion, which is at a neutral level compared to previous years, with government deposits anticipated to increase by approximately 1.25 trillion, potentially impacting liquidity [2][26][35] - In January, the monetary issuance is projected to increase by about 600 billion, with the reserve requirement ratio expected to rise by approximately 350 billion, indicating a tightening effect on liquidity [2][26][35] - The report notes that the funding rates in January have marginally increased compared to December, but the overall liquidity remains loose, with the average DR001 rate reaching 1.34%, higher than December's 1.28% [3][43][45] Group 3 - The report suggests that the fiscal deficit in February may reach the highest level for the same period in previous years, with government deposits expected to decrease by about 370 billion [7][35] - It is anticipated that the monetary issuance in February will remain high, with an expected increase of around 900 billion, influenced by the timing of the Chinese New Year [7][35] - The report indicates that the central bank's monetary policy has subtly shifted, focusing on guiding reasonable growth in financial totals rather than excessively loosening financial conditions [8][35]

Group 1 - The liquidity situation in February is expected to be better than in January, with MLF and reverse repos maturing decreasing from 1.9 trillion to 1.5 trillion yuan, and net financing of government bonds estimated at around 1.2 trillion yuan [9][15] - The issuance of local government bonds is significantly front-loaded in February, with an expected issuance of 906.7 billion yuan in the first week, and net financing of 720.9 billion yuan, including 579.7 billion yuan in local bonds [15][45] - By February 8, the cumulative issuance of local bonds is expected to reach 1.443 trillion yuan, with 778.7 billion yuan of ultra-long local bonds issued, accounting for 54% of the total [15][45] Group 2 - The local bond issuance plan for Q1 2026 totals 2.6549 trillion yuan, with monthly plans of 809 billion, 884.9 billion, and 960.9 billion yuan for January, February, and March respectively [15][49] - There is a strong willingness among regions to maintain a lower limit for bonds with maturities under 10 years, reflecting considerations for fiscal cost control, while there is less intervention for ultra-long bonds [16][46] - In January 2026, insurance companies had a net purchase of local bonds amounting to 135.4 billion yuan, compared to 120.6 billion yuan in the same period last year [16][46]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Despite large tax outflows in January and limited central bank injections, the funds remained loose. The influence of factors such as residents' foreign exchange settlement on the funds is likely limited, and the changes in exogenous disturbances and central bank injections can roughly explain the fluctuations in funds [5][37]. - Historically, there have been cases where funds remained loose under low excess reserve ratios. The central bank can maintain loose funds through open market operations or guiding bank lending. The current funds situation does not require excessive concern [42]. - Next week, the funds will face significant exogenous disturbances, especially a concentrated impact on Monday. However, considering the central bank's clear attitude of protecting the funds, it is expected that the funds rate will not continue to rise significantly compared to this week [11][68]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Money Market 1.1 This Week's Funds Review - This week, the OMO had a net injection of 22.95 billion yuan. On Friday, there was a 150 - billion - yuan treasury cash deposit due, and the central bank conducted a 900 - billion - yuan 1 - year MLF operation, exceeding the monthly maturity by 700 billion yuan. After the MLF operation, DR001 fell back below 1.4% [3][18]. - The trading volume of pledged repurchase decreased slightly, and the overall scale fluctuated downward. The net lending of large - scale banks declined, while that of non - bank institutions' rigid lending first decreased and then increased [4][26]. - The cross - month progress of inter - bank institutions in January was slow, and the exchange - market cross - month progress was at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [32]. 1.2 Next Week's Funds Outlook - Next week, government bond net payment is expected to rise to 515 billion yuan, with 7 - day reverse repurchase maturities totaling 1181 billion yuan and 200 billion yuan of MLF maturing on Monday. The 26th is the reserve payment day [11][45][68]. - In January 2026, the government bond issuance scale was 2.08 trillion yuan, with a net financing scale of 1.18 trillion yuan, lower than expected. It is estimated that the government bond issuance scales in February and March will be 2.12 trillion and 2.63 trillion yuan respectively, with net financing scales of 1.36 trillion and 1.13 trillion yuan [56][62]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - This week, the 1Y Shibor rate declined by 0.6BP, and the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit secondary rate declined by 3.0BP [69]. - The issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased while the maturity scale decreased, with a net repayment scale of 9.06 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.04 billion yuan from last week. The issuance success rates of various banks increased, and the issuance spread between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks for 1Y certificates of deposit widened [74][75]. - The willingness of money market funds to reduce holdings of certificates of deposit in the secondary market continued to rise, while the willingness of other institutions to increase holdings in the primary market decreased. The relative strength index of certificates of deposit continued to decline seasonally [85]. 3. Bill Market This week, bill rates fluctuated within a narrow range. The 3 - month bill rate of state - owned and joint - stock banks increased by 2BP to 1.45%, and the 6 - month bill rate remained unchanged at 1.13% [93]. 4. Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - Last week, the bond market recovered, the interest rate curve steeply declined, and the credit spreads of 3 - 7Y bonds were compressed across the board. Large banks tended to reduce their bond holdings overall [13][96]. - Trading - type institutions generally tended to increase their bond holdings, while the willingness of allocation - type institutions to increase their bond holdings decreased significantly [96].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the liquidity environment may face pressure due to the upcoming expiration of nearly 1 trillion yuan in pledged reverse repos, accelerated government bond issuance, and tax payment deadlines around January 20, which is a significant tax month [6][9][12] - The central bank has stated it will continue to increase liquidity injection and flexibly use various tools in open market operations to maintain ample liquidity, aiming to guide overnight rates close to the policy rate level of 1.40% [6][9][12] - The report highlights that local government bond issuance plans for January to March 2026 total 21,180 billion yuan, with 8,145 billion yuan planned for January, 4,424 billion yuan for February, and 8,611 billion yuan for March [14][37] Group 2 - The report notes that local bond supply has been notably slow, attributed to the delayed timing of local legislative sessions, which affects the actual issuance of new bonds [14][37] - As of January 18, 2026, local government bonds issued totaled 4,241 billion yuan, with 2,458 billion yuan in ultra-long bonds, accounting for 58% of the total, and 1,799 billion yuan in debt-restructuring bonds, accounting for 42% [14][37] - The report suggests that the current market conditions may lead to a focus on market-oriented issuance for ultra-long bonds, particularly in regions like Xinjiang, where the bidding spread is set significantly higher than secondary market spreads [41][43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The marginal tightening of funds this week may be due to the misalignment between exogenous disturbances and central bank injections. Despite the low excess reserve ratio in December and the large - scale net withdrawal of OMO in the first week of January, the funds remained relatively loose, possibly because of the abundant non - bank liquidity. Although the central bank did not announce a reserve requirement ratio cut this week, it is likely to take measures to maintain liquidity. A rate cut condition is maturing, and a reserve requirement ratio cut is likely to be implemented in March. It is expected that the DR001 central value in January will be around 1.3% - 1.35% [4][29][45]. - Next week, the reverse repurchase maturity scale will rise significantly, the government bond payment pressure will increase, and the tax - period capital demand will further increase. However, considering the central bank's intention to guide the overnight interest rate to run near the policy interest rate, the probability of a significant tightening of the capital market is limited [67]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Money Market 3.1.1 This Week's Capital Market Review - OMO had a net injection of 81.28 billion yuan this week. The 6 - month repurchase expired on Tuesday, and the central bank over - renewed 30 billion yuan on Thursday. After the large - scale net withdrawal of OMO and government bond payments after the New Year, the inter - bank water level dropped significantly. The government bond payments were mainly concentrated on Monday, and the repurchase renewal was delayed, causing the funds to tighten marginally in the first half of the week. After the repurchase was implemented on Thursday, the funds gradually loosened, and the DR001 fell to 1.32% on Friday [3][16]. - The trading volume of pledged repurchase decreased in the middle of the week and recovered in the second half. The average daily trading volume increased by 1.12 trillion yuan to 8.62 trillion yuan compared with last week. The overall scale of pledged repurchase decreased first and then increased, but it was still below 13 trillion yuan on Friday. The net lending of large - scale banks and small - and medium - sized banks decreased first and then increased. The net lending of non - bank institutions increased first and then decreased, and the net borrowing maintained a shock. The capital gap index rose to - 363.9 billion on Wednesday and then gradually fell to - 762 billion on Friday, slightly higher than last week but still below the neutral level [3][23]. - The marginal tightening of funds may be due to the misalignment between exogenous disturbances and central bank injections. The decline in government deposits in December was only 1 trillion yuan, resulting in an excess reserve ratio of only 1.6%, lower than expected. The large - scale net withdrawal of OMO in the first week of January and government bond payments may have reduced the excess reserve ratio to 0.9%. The government bond payment and repurchase expiration at the beginning of this week, combined with equity market fluctuations and new stock subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange, led to a temporary increase in DR001, but the central bank's attitude did not change, and the funds loosened again after the repurchase on Thursday [4][29][35]. 3.1.2 Next Week's Capital Outlook - This week, the actual net payment of government bonds was - 4.85 billion yuan. Next week, the payment scale of government bonds is expected to be about 20 billion yuan, and the local bond issuance scale of 5 regions is 231.6 billion yuan. Due to the decrease in the maturity volume, the overall net payment scale of government bonds will rise to 246.5 billion yuan [46]. - As of now, 11 regions have issued local bonds worth 424.1 billion yuan in January. The issuance of new general bonds, new special bonds, and refinancing bonds is 21.6 billion yuan, 174.6 billion yuan, and 227.9 billion yuan respectively, with replacement bonds worth 170.4 billion yuan. The overall issuance of local bonds in January is roughly in line with the plan. It is expected that the government bond issuance scale in January, February, and March 2026 will be 2.12 trillion yuan, 1.81 trillion yuan, and 2.77 trillion yuan respectively, and the net financing scale will be 1.22 trillion yuan, 1.05 trillion yuan, and 1.26 trillion yuan respectively. The cumulative net financing scale of government bonds in the first quarter may be lower than that in the same period of 2025 [55][62]. - Next week, the 7 - day reverse repurchase maturity scale will increase significantly, the government bond payment pressure will increase, and the tax - period capital demand will further increase. Although the new stock subscription on the Beijing Stock Exchange may have a certain impact on the exchange capital price, it is generally controllable. Considering the central bank's attitude, the probability of a significant tightening of the capital market is limited [67]. 3.2 Inter - Bank Certificates of Deposit - The 1 - year Shibor rate rose 0.4 BP to 1.65% compared with January 9. The secondary rate of 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit fell 0.8 BP to 1.63% compared with last week [71]. - This week, the increase in the issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit was less than the maturity scale, with a net repayment of 28.04 billion yuan, an increase of 12.27 billion yuan compared with last week. The net financing scale of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks was - 14.03 billion yuan, - 20.43 billion yuan, 5.97 billion yuan, and - 0.07 billion yuan respectively. The 1 - year certificates of deposit were still the largest issuance variety, but the issuance proportion decreased by 15 percentage points to 30% compared with last week [74]. - The issuance success rates of inter - bank certificates of deposit of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks all increased compared with last week. Except for the relatively low issuance success rate of joint - stock banks, the issuance success rates of other banks were close to the average level in recent years. The issuance spread of 1 - year certificates of deposit between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed [75][78]. - The new - caliber relative supply - demand strength index of certificates of deposit dropped to 28.7%, a decrease of 13.6 percentage points compared with last week, mainly due to the decreased willingness of money market funds to increase their holdings of certificates of deposit, especially the increased willingness to reduce holdings in the secondary market. However, this decline is seasonal, and the current index is roughly the same as in previous years [86][89]. 3.3 Bill Market This week, the bill interest rate declined overall. As of January 16, the 3 - month and 6 - month bill interest rates of state - owned and joint - stock banks decreased by 7 BP and 9 BP respectively compared with January 9, to 1.43% and 1.13% [94][96]. 3.4 Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - This week, the sentiment of interest - rate bonds was strong, and the yields declined slightly overall, while the credit was generally stable [99]. - Large - scale banks tended to increase their bond holdings overall, with an increased willingness to hold inter - bank certificates of deposit, 1 - 3 - year and 10 - year policy financial bonds, and a decreased willingness to hold short - term commercial paper. However, they tended to reduce their holdings of 1 - 3 - year treasury bonds and 5 - year policy financial bonds [99]. - The overall willingness of trading - type institutions to reduce bond holdings decreased. Among them, the willingness of securities companies, other institutions, and products to reduce holdings decreased, while fund companies tended to increase their holdings [99]. - The overall willingness of allocation - type institutions to increase bond holdings decreased significantly. Among them, the willingness of small - and medium - sized banks to increase holdings decreased significantly, while the willingness of insurance companies and wealth management products to increase holdings increased [99].

Group 1 - The excess reserve ratio in November remained stable at 1.2%, while government deposits increased to a historical high of 6 trillion yuan, exceeding expectations by 492 billion yuan [2][16][20] - In December, the government deposit is expected to decrease by approximately 1.96 trillion yuan, marking a historical high decline, which will provide liquidity support [3][20][28] - The probability of a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut in January has significantly increased, with expectations of a potential release of about 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [8][65][67] Group 2 - In December, the broad fiscal deficit is anticipated to reach a historical high, with a significant decrease in net government debt repayments [3][20][28] - The monetary issuance in December is expected to increase by about 300 billion yuan, while the required reserve ratio may rise by approximately 150 billion yuan [3][20][28] - The average DR001 rate in December dropped to a new low for the year, reflecting a very loose monetary state despite slight fluctuations in DR007 [4][36][45] Group 3 - The liquidity environment is expected to remain stable, with banks' net financing capabilities improving, as evidenced by a historical high in net financing from banks in December [4][37][40] - The anticipated increase in government deposits in January is expected to exert pressure on liquidity, with an expected rise of about 1.66 trillion yuan [8][67][68] - The overall liquidity situation is expected to remain manageable, with the central bank's policies likely to mitigate external pressures [10][45][46]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the liquidity remains ample as of late December 2025, with bank lending exceeding 60 trillion yuan, and key rates such as DR001 and R001 showing narrow fluctuations [10][24][39] - The People's Bank of China emphasizes a monetary policy focused on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, indicating a potential alignment with fiscal debt issuance in 2026 [11][24] - The report notes a significant increase in the issuance of long-term local government bonds, particularly 30-year bonds, which have improved liquidity and attracted institutional investors [18][20][39] Group 2 - The analysis of government debt issuance reveals that national bonds follow a strict issuance plan, while local bonds have more flexible issuance schedules, leading to discrepancies between planned and actual issuance [20][39] - The report outlines that local government bonds are primarily aimed at debt replacement, with average costs decreasing by over 2 percentage points in many regions, thus alleviating repayment pressures [21][39] - The planned issuance of local government bonds for Q1 2026 totals 1.61 trillion yuan, with a focus on potentially reducing the supply of 30-year bonds in favor of shorter maturities [22][39] Group 3 - The report indicates that the net financing from local government bonds was negative in recent weeks, highlighting the need for careful monitoring of future issuance strategies [42][39] - The analysis of the interbank market shows that the demand for short-term bonds remains strong, with significant net purchases observed in the secondary market [48][39] - The report suggests that the pricing of long-term bonds may not be attractive currently, with better value found in shorter maturities, reflecting market dynamics [49][39]

Group 1: Liquidity Overview - The liquidity remains stable during the tax period from December 15-19, with overnight rates (R001) maintaining at 1.34-1.35% and 7-day rates (R007) around 1.50%[1] - The central bank injected a net of 200 billion CNY through 6-month reverse repos on December 15, while maintaining regular operations to stabilize funding rates[1] - The average net outflow from the banking system increased to 4.90 trillion CNY, reaching a near six-month high[14] Group 2: Year-End Deposit Rates - The issuance rate for 1-year negotiable certificates of deposit (NCD) rose to 1.66-1.67% in December, but is expected to decline as year-end approaches[2] - The pressure from maturing deposits will ease, with upcoming maturities of 8,686 billion CNY, down from over 10 trillion CNY in previous weeks[6] - The anticipated net payment for government bonds from December 22-26 is projected at 3,666 billion CNY, significantly higher than the previous two weeks[5] Group 3: Market Trends - The 1-month bill rate increased by 3 basis points to 0.04%, while the 3-month rate rose by 4 basis points to 0.49%[4] - The net selling by major banks reached 75 billion CNY during December 15-18, with a cumulative net buying of only 7 billion CNY for the month[4] - The weighted average issuance period for NCDs extended to 6.1 months, indicating a shift in issuance strategy among banks[42]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the stability of the fixed income market is recovering, with a focus on the liquidity situation and upcoming policy signals by the end of the year [1][2][3] - In October, the excess reserve ratio decreased by approximately 0.2 percentage points to 1.2%, slightly below the expected 1.3%, primarily due to an increase in government deposits [1][19] - Government deposits rose by 625.8 billion yuan in October, exceeding the expected 378.1 billion yuan, which contributed to the lower-than-expected excess reserve ratio [1][19][20] Group 2 - In November, the broad fiscal deficit is expected to be relatively high, but with a significant increase in government debt net payments, government deposits are projected to decrease by about 250 billion yuan, which will provide some liquidity support [2][27] - The report anticipates an increase in monetary issuance of approximately 140 billion yuan in November, with a rise in reserve requirements by about 110 billion yuan [2][28] - The central bank's net repurchase operations in November are expected to result in a net withdrawal of 5,562 billion yuan, while MLF net investment is projected at 1,000 billion yuan [2][42] Group 3 - The report highlights that the central bank's monetary policy is expected to remain relatively loose, with a focus on maintaining stability in the financial system despite some tightening in the money market [3][55] - The average issuance scale of key-term government bonds in November decreased compared to October, indicating a potential shift in government financing strategies [2][33] - The report notes that the central bank's net purchase of government bonds in November was only 50 billion yuan, which is lower than market expectations, reflecting a cautious approach to liquidity management [4][57] Group 4 - The report discusses the implications of the central bank's emphasis on "cross-cycle" and "counter-cyclical" adjustments, indicating a desire to manage the growth of social financing and M2 in relation to nominal GDP [3][45] - It is noted that the central bank's actions may be a response to previous recommendations from the National People's Congress regarding monetary policy adjustments [4][48] - The report suggests that while there is a potential for interest rate cuts in Q1 of the following year, the timing may be influenced by the overall economic conditions and fiscal policies [4][11]