市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 本文源自：市场资讯 作者：观察君 根据瑞银基准情景预测，截至2026年底，杠杆贷款与私募信贷领域将新增750亿至1200亿美元违约规 模。CNBC依据该预测测算，到2026年底，杠杆贷款与私募信贷违约率将分别上升至至多2.5%和4%， 对应市场规模分别约1.5万亿美元和2万亿美元。Matthew Mish同时提示，若AI转型进程进一步提速，极 端情景下违约率或达到基准预期的两倍，触发市场所称的"尾部风险"，进而引发贷款市场信贷紧缩，杠 杆信贷大范围地重新定价，对整个金融系统形成冲击。 瑞银方面表示，相关风险的演化，取决于大型企业人工智能应用节奏、模型迭代速度及其他不确定性因 素，目前尾部风险尚未发生，但市场正朝这一方向演进。 据介绍，杠杆贷款与私募信贷主要服务于非投资级、高负债企业，是企业信贷中风险偏高的领域。 Matthew Mish将人工智能赛道企业划分为三类：基础大模型研发主体、具备稳健财务状况的投资级软件 企业、高负债私募股权控股的软件与数据服务企业。他认为，在快速颠覆性变革中，第三类企业成为赢 家的可能性最低。 近 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. credit market is experiencing an unusual boom, with high demand for corporate bonds despite historically low returns [1] - Investment-grade and high-yield bond valuations are at historical highs, with the investment-grade bond spread to U.S. Treasuries dropping to 0.74 percentage points, the lowest since 1998 [1] - The total issuance of U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds reached $210 billion by September 2025, marking a historical high for the same period [1] Group 2 - The financing for high-risk borrowers has expanded from traditional bonds and loans to private credit and asset-backed securities, increasing the potential for default risk [2] - Recent bankruptcy cases, such as Tricolor Holdings and First Brands Group, have raised concerns about the stability of the market [2] - The private credit market has grown to nearly $2 trillion over the past decade, with a lack of strict external regulation making risk accumulation harder to monitor [2] Group 3 - The private credit default rate rose to 9.5% in July 2024, indicating ongoing vulnerabilities in the market [3] - The direction of the credit market is heavily influenced by the U.S. macroeconomic environment, with potential implications for interest rates and borrower pressure [3] - The current credit boom may be overstretching future risk tolerance, as indicated by the increase in "payment-in-kind" (PIK) instruments [3]