大摩在2026年展望中预测，由AI驱动的近3万亿美元资本支出将推动市场走高，预计标普500指数将达7800点。但同时警告， 主要风险在于这笔巨额投资若未能及时转化为生产力，可能引发长期信贷问题。投资者需从2026年开始密切监控企业杠杆、 估值和实际产出等关键指标，以防范这一核心风险的出现。 近日，摩根士丹利在其2026年展望报告中描绘了一幅整体积极的图景，认为由AI驱动的资本支出热潮将成为市场的主要推动 力。 然而，该行也发出了一个关键的长期警告： 如果这场耗资数万亿美元的投资未能及时转化为实质性的生产力增长，那么由此 引发的杠杆率上升和信贷担忧可能成为市场面临的主要风险。 AI引领的3万亿美元资本开支浪潮 策略师Michael Zezas在报告中表示，世界正在对美国政策的转变做出反应。美国政策已从过去的自由贸易转向以产业政 策、贸易壁垒和战略投资为核心的新共识，这种转变为企业资本支出的大幅回升提供了动力。 报告指出，在企业资产负债表现金充裕、经济环境有利以及AI技术前景的共同推动下，一场资本支出的浪潮正在形成。 摩根士丹利预计，全球与AI相关的资本支出将接近3万亿美元，其中约1.5万亿美元需要通过公共和私人 ...

一场由AI驱动的资本开支热潮正在形成，但这背后也潜藏着重大风险。 近日，摩根士丹利在其2026年展望报告中描绘了一幅整体积极的图景，认为由AI驱动的资本支出热潮将成为市场的主要推动力。 然而，该行也发出了一个关键的长期警告：如果这场耗资数万亿美元的投资未能及时转化为实质性的生产力增长，那么由此引发的杠杆率上升和 信贷担忧可能成为市场面临的主要风险。 AI引领的3万亿美元资本开支浪潮 策略师Michael Zezas在报告中表示，世界正在对美国政策的转变做出反应。美国政策已从过去的自由贸易转向以产业政策、贸易壁垒和战略投资 为核心的新共识，这种转变为企业资本支出的大幅回升提供了动力。 报告指出，在企业资产负债表现金充裕、经济环境有利以及AI技术前景的共同推动下，一场资本支出的浪潮正在形成。 摩根士丹利预计，全球与AI相关的资本支出将接近3万亿美元，其中约1.5万亿美元需要通过公共和私人信贷市场进行融资。 这一投资热潮预计将对实体经济产生直接影响，成为未来几年经济增长的重要引擎。该行经济团队预测，仅AI相关的资本支出就将为2026年美国 1.8%的GDP增长预估值贡献0.4个百分点。 投资机遇：从信贷到股市的广泛 ...

Core Viewpoint - The surge in borrowing and bond issuance by major US tech companies, including Meta, Amazon, and Oracle, alongside signs of panic in the private credit market, is causing caution among investors in the investment-grade bond market, potentially leading to increased financing costs and impacting global corporate earnings [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trends - Investors are showing increased caution towards high-rated investment-grade bonds despite current credit spreads being near historical lows, influenced by fears of a market sell-off related to AI investment bubbles and upcoming US economic data releases [1][2] - Major Wall Street investment firms are reducing their exposure to top-rated bonds, with some even shorting this asset class due to concerns over pricing and risk [2][3] - The MSCI global stock index has dropped 3% this month, reflecting broader market fears and impacting various asset classes, including cryptocurrencies and commodities [1] Group 2: Credit Market Dynamics - The ICE-BofA index tracking top-rated US corporate bonds indicates spreads are only slightly above 27-year lows, suggesting limited additional yield for taking on corporate credit risk [3][7] - The private credit market, valued at $3 trillion, is experiencing anxiety as some investment firms implement measures to limit fund redemptions, indicating a lack of confidence in the pricing of investment-grade debt [2][3] - The pricing of investment-grade bonds does not adequately reflect the risks associated with potential economic downturns or credit events, leading to concerns about future performance [3][12] Group 3: Predictions and Strategies - Analysts predict that the next major point of concern in the market could be high-rated investment-grade debt, with some firms already taking profits on existing positions [3][4] - Investment strategies are shifting towards short positions in investment-grade bonds, particularly those linked to companies heavily investing in AI, as the financial environment is expected to tighten [16][17] - The anticipated reduction in the pace of interest rate cuts by central banks may signal the end of the current favorable financing conditions for heavily indebted sectors, including tech [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - The global economy demonstrates resilience despite tariff disruptions, with China's market benefiting from net exports and a shift in household savings, presenting investment opportunities [1][3]. Economic Outlook - The global GDP growth rate for 2025 is expected to exceed earlier predictions due to demand-driven factors like inventory replenishment and export competition, although a slowdown is anticipated in 2026 [1][3]. - Fiscal policies and labor market resilience are crucial for sustaining economic stability, with major economies increasing counter-cyclical measures [3][4]. Trade Dynamics - Recent U.S.-China trade developments, including the cancellation of certain tariffs, provide temporary relief, while the global supply chain is undergoing a restructuring towards high-value industries returning to the U.S. and low-value production moving to emerging markets [4][6]. Investment Trends - There is a notable trend of Chinese household savings shifting towards equity-like assets, with a reported increase of 73.7 trillion yuan in deposits from December 2019 to September 2025, reflecting a 55% growth [6][7]. - The Chinese technology sector, particularly in AI, chips, and automation, is highlighted as globally scarce and a key investment focus, emphasizing the importance of long-term commercial viability over short-term valuation [6][7]. Fixed Income Market - The global investment-grade bond market is experiencing significant inflows, with a historical net inflow recorded in August 2025, driven by institutional investors seeking yield [4][6]. - The current yield on global investment-grade bonds has risen to 4%-5%, providing stable returns and risk diversification during stock market volatility [6][7]. Asset Allocation Strategy - A diversified investment strategy across regions, asset classes, and industries is recommended to capitalize on technological advancements and capital rotation while mitigating risks associated with single markets [7]. - The ongoing opening of channels like Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect is expected to accelerate foreign investment in Chinese assets, leveraging China's cost advantages and potential for widespread application [7].

Core Insights - JPMorgan Chase reports that AI hyperscale data center operators are entering a significant expansion phase, with financing needs projected to reach at least $5 trillion over the next five years, potentially exceeding $7 trillion [1][3] Financing Channels - The investment-grade bond market is expected to provide approximately $1.5 trillion for AI data center construction over the next five years [3] - Leveraged finance is projected to contribute around $150 billion within the same timeframe, but even with additional funding from investment-grade bonds, high-yield debt markets, and up to $40 billion annually from data center securitization, there remains a funding gap of about $1.4 trillion [3] - Private credit and government funding are anticipated to be crucial supplementary sources to address this funding shortfall [3] Internal Funding Sources - The primary source of funding for AI data centers will not be external capital markets but rather the AI operators themselves, who generate approximately $700 billion in net revenue annually, with $500 billion allocated to capital expenditures [4]

IT之家 11 月 10 日消息，路透社于 11 月 5 日发布博文，报道称人工智能竞赛已进入"烧钱"白热化阶段，为满足预计到 2030 年高达 7 万亿美元的投资需求， 科技公司正开辟新的融资渠道。 这种转变的核心标志是，科技公司开始大规模利用其数据中心资产进行融资，将未来的现金流打包成金融产品出售给投资者，一场由债务驱动的 AI 基建狂 潮已然拉开序幕。 一、投资级债券发行激增，科技巨头掀起借贷潮 美国银行数据显示，仅在 2025 年 9 月和 10 月两个月内，专注于 AI 的大型科技公司就发行了高达 750 亿美元（IT之家注：现汇率约合 356.39 亿元人民币） 的投资级债券，这一数字是 2015 至 2024 年间年均 320 亿美元发行额的两倍多。 其中，Meta 发行了 300 亿美元（现汇率约合 2138.34 亿元人民币），甲骨文发行了 180 亿美元。摩根大通估计，与 AI 相关的公司目前已占其投资级指数的 14%，首次超过美国银行业，成为主导板块。巴克莱银行更预测，AI 相关科技债的发行量将成为决定 2026 年信贷市场供应潜力的关键因素。 | 2025* $12.75B | | $ ...

凤凰网科技讯 北京时间10月31日，据彭博社报道，彭博亿万富翁指数显示，脸书母公司Meta CEO马克· 扎克伯格(Mark Zuckerberg)的财富排名跌出了世界前三，下滑两位至第五位，创下近两年来的最低排 名。 Meta周四宣布，将发行今年规模最大的300亿美元投资级债券，以资助AI研究。此举吓到了投资者，导 致Meta股价在周四大跌11%，创下自2022年以来的最大跌幅。 Meta股价的大跌导致扎克伯格的财富单日蒸发292亿美元(约合2076亿元人民币)，是彭博亿万富翁指数 有记录以来第四大由市场波动引发的单日财富缩水。目前，扎克伯格的净资产已降低至2352亿美元，被 亚马逊创始人杰夫·贝佐斯(Jeff Bezos)和谷歌母公司Alphabet创始人拉里·佩奇(Larry Page)超越。自2023 年10月以来，佩奇一直未进入全球前四富豪之列。 在本周四股价暴跌前，Meta今年的股价累计上涨了28%，为扎克伯格的财富增加了570亿美元财富。但 是，随着Meta的AI预算不断膨胀，投资者开始产生质疑。Meta表示，今年预计资本支出将高达1180亿 美元，2026年可能还会更高。受此影响，至少两位分析 ...

全球充斥着货币刺激 美国银行首席投资策略师迈克尔·哈特内特（Michael Hartnett）在其每周《流动报告》（Flow Show）中称，鉴于全球市场充斥着如此巨额的货 币刺激，资产市场评论满是"繁荣、泡沫与贬值"也就不足为奇了。 这份报告标题为《从零到英雄》（From zero to hero），因为自今年夏天以来，哈特内特"买入美国零息国债"的建议已被证明极具先见之明。 2008年全球金融危机最低谷时期后的两年间，全球央行共降息313次。而在过去两年，全球央行已完成312次降息——其中最重要的央行（美 联储）下周或再降一次。同期，美国国内生产总值（GDP）增长了11%。 在传统资产类别相关性破裂的市场环境下，股票、现金、黄金和债券正迎来有史以来规模最大的年度资金流入之一。 美国银行根据EPFR Global数据按年化测算显示，2025年股票基金资金流入规模有望达到6930亿美元。该行策略师在报告中写道，这将是历史 第三高的年度流入量。 现金类基金预计将吸引1.1万亿美元资金，为历史第二高流入规模。投资者还将向黄金和投资级债券分别注入创纪录的1080亿美元和4150亿美 元。 美国零息国债无需定期支付利 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has initiated the offering of investment-grade bonds with maturities up to 11 years, following strong third-quarter earnings reports from major banks on Wall Street [1] Group 1: Bond Offering Details - The longest bond in the offering is an 11-year bond, with preliminary pricing discussions indicating a yield approximately 1.15 percentage points higher than that of U.S. Treasuries of the same maturity [1] - The funds raised from this bond issuance will be used for general corporate purposes [1] Group 2: Market Context - This bond issuance follows Goldman Sachs' $10 billion bond issuance on Tuesday and JPMorgan's $5 billion bond issuance on Wednesday [1] - The average yield on U.S. investment-grade bonds dropped to a one-year low of 4.69% on Thursday, with spreads remaining below 0.8 percentage points, indicating attractive financing costs for high-rated borrowers [1] - It is noteworthy that bond issuances of high-grade bonds are rare on Fridays, with issuance volume typically accounting for only about 1% of the annual supply [1]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan Chase is issuing investment-grade bonds in three parts following its third-quarter earnings report, joining Goldman Sachs in debt financing efforts [1] Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - The longest tranche of the bond issuance is an 11-year bond, with a yield potentially exceeding U.S. Treasury yields by 1.05 percentage points [1] - Proceeds from the bond issuance will be used for general corporate purposes [1] Group 2: Financial Performance and Outlook - JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon has warned of potential deterioration in credit quality, casting a shadow over the surge in trading and investment banking revenues [1] - The bank has increased its provisions for potential bad loans by $810 million, surpassing analysts' expectations [1] Group 3: Competitor Activity - Goldman Sachs issued $10 billion in investment-grade bonds after reporting record third-quarter revenue, marking its largest bond issuance in nearly four years [1]