2. 国际利率市场动态 自2025年11月底以来，全球主要经济体的利率市场普遍出现抛售，主要受央行鹰派转向、数据强劲以及头寸平仓的影响。报告预计美联储将在2026年1月降 息25个基点，英国央行将在12月、3月和6月各降息25个基点，而日本央行将在12月和4月各加息一次。其他主要经济体央行预计将维持利率不变。摩根大通 在策略上建议在年底减少利率组合的风险暴露。 3. 外汇市场观点 报告维持对美元的看空观点，认为美元在2026年上半年仍将面临贬值压力，但贬值幅度和范围可能较之前预期更为温和。主要驱动因素包括全球经济增长的 改善、美国双赤字问题以及美联储政策的不确定性。报告还指出，日本央行的政策调整对日元的影响有限，而人民币升值可能不会是线性的，因为其已经存 在较大的估值折扣。 4. 商品市场分析 报告认为委内瑞拉政权更迭将是2026 - 2027年全球石油供应的最大潜在上行风险。如果发生政治过渡，委内瑞拉的石油产量可能在两年内提升至130万至140 万桶/日，并在未来十年内达到250万桶/日。此外，报告指出白银价格的大幅上涨可能对需求产生破坏性影响，尤其是在太阳能领域，因为白银在太阳能电 池中的使用成本占比已显 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：六里投资报 橡树资本联合创始人霍华德·马克斯，近日在一场线上访谈中，围绕AI泡沫、黄金、比特币以及债券等 投资话题分享了最新的见解。 霍华德将当前阶段与1998-2000年的互联网泡沫时期相类比， 认为两者均围绕革命性技术展开，激发了市场无限想象， 但他指出，"改变世界"和"投资者赚到钱"是两回事。 正如沃伦·巴菲特曾经说的， "毫无疑问，互联网将极大地提高生产力，但它是否会对某家企业盈利能力产生积极影响，还不清楚。" 对于AI也同样适用。 霍华德认为，相较于互联网泡沫时期， 人们对AI的具体商业化路径及其盈利模式仍缺乏清晰认知。 关于AI投资，霍华德警示普通投资者应避免陷入"彩票心态"和"二元赌局"。 他区分了两类投资选择： 一是押注纯AI概念公司，高风险也可能高回报； 二是投资于已具备稳定业务的大型科技公司，AI仅作为增长助力。 他强调，投资者需清醒认识自身风险承受能力，以及投资计划。 对于黄金与比特币，他延续其价值投资理念，指出这类资产不产生现金流， 因而无法基于内在价值进行评估，其价格完全取决于市场供需与情绪。 一年前买黄 ...

｜2025年12月22日 产品及投资方案部 AI泡沫质疑声中的韧性市场 定期出版：年度/季度投资策略 资料来源：中信证券财富管理 (香港) 1 定期出版：每日环球市场动态 资料来源：中信证券财富管理 (香港) 2 资料来源：中信证券财富管理 (香港) 3 定期出版：重点关注产品追踪 (每周) 资料来源：中信证券财富管理 (香港) 定期出版：每周产品及投资策略＋每月精选产品概览＋每月企业客户境外现金管理及资产配置手册 4 定期出版：结构性产品手册 | | | 5 不定期出版：突发点评 关税风暴席卷全球 港股大跌9% (2025年4月7日) 特朗普胜出美国大选的未来影响 (2024年11月6日) A股复市港股跳水 (2024年10月8日) 资料来源：中信证券财富管理 (香港) 6 微信公众号：市场动态 ＋ 焦点板块及个股 ＋ 港股打新焦点 资料来源：中信证券财富管理 (香港) 7 微信公众号：债市聚焦 ＋ 新债发行 资料来源：中信证券财富管理 (香港) 8 微信公众号：活用结构化产品个案分享 资料来源：中信证券财富管理 (香港) 资料来源：中信证券财富管理 (香港) 9 微信公众号：基金文章 + 基金经理专访系列 ...

" 我的偶像巴菲特常说，他每天早上 跳着踢踏舞 去上班。我也确实有这种感觉。 " " 我最欣赏 （芒格）的 是，他不仅有天赋，更重要的是，他把天赋变成了一整套系统。他的才华是被结构 化的，有方法、有框架 …… 这才走得 长 远 ， 而且这些思想深刻地影响了巴菲特。 " " 我 和（合伙人）布鲁斯 彼此真诚地承认：对方能做到一些自己做不到的事情。真正健康的合作关系， 正 是 建立在这种认知之上。我们一直都承认彼此的独特性，也从不因为谁犯错就互相指责。 " " 在投资这件事上，成功并不来自少数几次高风险的豪赌，而是源于长期、持续的稳健表现。 " " 投资的本质，不是追求确定性，而是在不确定中，设法让概率站在你这边。 " "' 情绪稳定 ' 是我见过许多优秀投资人身上最关键的品质之一。 " 这是我们今年看到 的橡树 资本联合创始人霍华德 ·马克斯最值得推荐的一场对话。 75分钟的访谈里，马克斯几乎讲出了他投资哲学中最本质、也最系统的一部分。而让这场访谈 与众不同的 关键，在于 对话者 是威廉 ·格林（William Green），《更富有，更睿智，更快乐》的作者， 他 深访过全 球众多的顶级投资人。 聪明投资者（I ...

Group 1 - The core view of Morgan Stanley's 2026 outlook is that an AI-driven capital expenditure wave of nearly $3 trillion will propel the market higher, with the S&P 500 index expected to reach 7800 points [1][2][8] - The report highlights that the shift in U.S. policy towards industrial policy and strategic investments is driving a significant rebound in corporate capital expenditures [3][4] - Morgan Stanley predicts that global AI-related capital expenditures will approach $3 trillion, with approximately $1.5 trillion needing to be financed through public and private credit markets, contributing 0.4 percentage points to the projected 1.8% GDP growth in the U.S. by 2026 [5][6] Group 2 - Investment opportunities are expected to be broad-based across various industries, not limited to a few leading AI companies, with industrial firms, tech component suppliers, and financial institutions likely to benefit [8] - In the credit market, high-yield bonds are forecasted to outperform investment-grade bonds due to increased issuance pressures on investment-grade bonds, while high-yield bonds are expected to provide around 6-7% total returns [8] - Despite the positive outlook for 2026, there are warnings about potential cyclical pressures from trade policies and interest rate fluctuations, with the Fed possibly starting to cut rates in early 2026 [9] Group 3 - The main risk identified is the potential failure of the AI capital expenditure wave to translate into substantial productivity gains, which could lead to rising corporate leverage outpacing output growth and causing credit market concerns [10] - However, the likelihood of this risk materializing in 2026 is considered low, as corporate fundamentals remain strong with healthy balance sheets and low leverage [10] - It is crucial for investors to monitor key indicators such as corporate leverage, market valuations, and the conversion of investment waves into actual output starting in 2026 [10]

一场由AI驱动的资本开支热潮正在形成，但这背后也潜藏着重大风险。 近日，摩根士丹利在其2026年展望报告中描绘了一幅整体积极的图景，认为由AI驱动的资本支出热潮将成为市场的主要推动力。 然而，该行也发出了一个关键的长期警告：如果这场耗资数万亿美元的投资未能及时转化为实质性的生产力增长，那么由此引发的杠杆率上升和 信贷担忧可能成为市场面临的主要风险。 AI引领的3万亿美元资本开支浪潮 策略师Michael Zezas在报告中表示，世界正在对美国政策的转变做出反应。美国政策已从过去的自由贸易转向以产业政策、贸易壁垒和战略投资 为核心的新共识，这种转变为企业资本支出的大幅回升提供了动力。 报告指出，在企业资产负债表现金充裕、经济环境有利以及AI技术前景的共同推动下，一场资本支出的浪潮正在形成。 摩根士丹利预计，全球与AI相关的资本支出将接近3万亿美元，其中约1.5万亿美元需要通过公共和私人信贷市场进行融资。 这一投资热潮预计将对实体经济产生直接影响，成为未来几年经济增长的重要引擎。该行经济团队预测，仅AI相关的资本支出就将为2026年美国 1.8%的GDP增长预估值贡献0.4个百分点。 投资机遇：从信贷到股市的广泛 ...

Core Viewpoint - HSBC is restructuring its trading division to become a major player in debt financing, driven by CEO Georges Elhedery [1][2] Group 1: Restructuring Details - The G10 currency rates trading department will merge with the foreign exchange, emerging markets rates, and commodities departments to form a new global macro department [1] - Derivatives clearing services will be integrated into the global equities team [1] - All remaining debt market operations, including high-yield and investment-grade bond trading, will fall under a unified "Global Credit and Financing" framework [1] Group 2: Leadership and Management Changes - The new global macro team will be led by Volkan Benihasim, while Franck Lacour will continue to oversee the equities business [2] - A brief internal selection process will be conducted for the new head of Global Credit and Financing, currently led by Antoine Maurel and Monish Tahilramani [2] - Global debt markets head Mehmet Mazi will explore other opportunities as part of the changes [2] Group 3: Strategic Goals - HSBC aims to leverage its large balance sheet to gain more business in trading and markets [2] - The initiatives reflect HSBC's ambition to become a "financing giant," with a focus on prudent technology investments aligned with its leadership goals in financing and trading banking [2]

Market Overview - In October, the investment agreements between Japan, South Korea, and the United States were finalized, leading to significant gains in the Japanese and South Korean stock markets, which rose by 19.1% and 12.2% respectively[3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index experienced a notable decline of 8.53% during the same period[3] Global Asset Flows - Global money market funds saw an inflow of approximately $1,290 billion in October, a decrease from $1,550 billion in September[19] - The U.S. equity market attracted $595.1 billion, while China and emerging markets received inflows of $180.6 billion and $241.6 billion respectively[19] China Market Dynamics - In October, China's equity market attracted $180.62 billion, accounting for 74.76% of the total inflow into emerging markets[19] - The inflow into China's fixed income market was $26.17 billion, representing 32.09% of the total emerging market inflow[19] Country Allocation Trends - Global funds' allocation to the Chinese stock market has rebounded to the historical 40th percentile, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from September[19] - The allocation to the U.S. stock market was 61.6%, reflecting a marginal increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[19] Risk Considerations - Short-term asset price fluctuations may not accurately represent long-term trends, and there are risks associated with potential economic downturns in Europe and the U.S.[3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding current market conditions and the unpredictability of the future, advocating for a cautious yet opportunistic investment approach, as articulated by Howard Marks [4][92]. Group 1: Howard Marks' Background and Philosophy - Howard Marks grew up in a family shaped by the Great Depression, instilling in him a cautious mindset and the importance of risk management [12][17]. - He initially pursued accounting but shifted to finance at Wharton, where he developed a keen interest in market dynamics and the concept of impermanence [16][17]. - Marks' investment philosophy is heavily influenced by the idea of "probability thinking," focusing on understanding the current market position rather than making predictions about the future [43][91]. Group 2: The "Beautiful 50" Experience - Marks' early career at Citibank coincided with the "Beautiful 50" phenomenon, where investors believed in the infallibility of top companies, leading to significant losses when the bubble burst [25][26]. - This experience taught him two lifelong principles: the dangers of overconfidence and the importance of being prepared for market corrections [26][29]. Group 3: Transition to Distressed Investing - After being reassigned to the bond department, Marks began exploring high-yield bonds, which eventually led to the establishment of a distressed debt fund at TCW [32][35]. - The distressed investing strategy capitalizes on market overreactions, where bond prices plummet due to excessive pessimism, creating investment opportunities [49][50]. Group 4: Formation of Oaktree Capital - In 1995, Marks co-founded Oaktree Capital, focusing on distressed investing with a strong emphasis on risk control and consistency [59][61]. - The firm gained a reputation for its disciplined approach, often limiting fundraising to maintain high returns for investors [56][62]. Group 5: Market Cycles and Investment Strategy - Marks highlights the cyclical nature of markets, noting that understanding one's position in the cycle is crucial for making informed investment decisions [90][91]. - He advocates for a long-term investment strategy, discouraging frequent trading and market timing, emphasizing the importance of staying invested [92].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the cyclical nature of investment opportunities and risks, emphasizing the importance of understanding current market conditions rather than making predictions about the future. It highlights Howard Marks' investment philosophy, which focuses on recognizing market extremes and adjusting strategies accordingly [1][84]. Group 1: Market Conditions and Investment Philosophy - Howard Marks identifies signs of overheating and speculation in tech and telecom stocks, drawing parallels to past market bubbles [1][2]. - He emphasizes the uncertainty of the future and the importance of understanding present circumstances, stating that while predicting the future is difficult, analyzing current events is manageable [3][14]. - The article illustrates the cyclical nature of markets, where periods of optimism can lead to overvaluation, followed by corrections [60][81]. Group 2: Historical Context and Personal Journey - Marks' upbringing during the Great Depression instilled a cautious mindset, influencing his investment philosophy of risk management and diversification [7][8]. - His academic journey led him to the Wharton School, where he shifted from accounting to finance, finding greater interest in the latter [12][13]. - The "Nifty Fifty" phenomenon serves as a cautionary tale, where even the best companies can experience significant declines, reinforcing the need for prudent investment strategies [22][23]. Group 3: Distress Investing and Market Opportunities - Marks transitioned to high-yield bonds and distressed securities, recognizing the potential for profit in undervalued assets during market downturns [27][28]. - The establishment of Oak Tree Capital marked a significant shift in focus towards distressed investing, emphasizing risk control and consistent returns [54][56]. - The article highlights the importance of positioning in the market, where investing during periods of fear can yield substantial returns [44][45]. Group 4: Recent Market Trends and Future Outlook - The article discusses the evolution of investment strategies from 2008 to 2025, noting the shift from liquidity-driven markets to a focus on cash flow and capital costs [81][82]. - Marks stresses the importance of recognizing current market positions and adjusting strategies accordingly, rather than attempting to predict future outcomes [90]. - The cyclical nature of investment opportunities suggests that understanding market conditions can significantly improve investment odds [84][90].