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“债冷股热”背后:全球资金“落子”中国新棋局
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-11-18 18:42
Core Insights - The global investment landscape for RMB assets is showing a divergence, with foreign institutional investors reducing their holdings in RMB bonds while showing increased enthusiasm for Chinese equities [2][3] - The shift from bonds to stocks is driven by various factors including interest rate differentials, stock market trends, and declining foreign exchange returns [5][6] Group 1: Investment Trends - International investors have significantly increased their allocation to emerging market stocks, with a notable inflow of $12.9 billion in October, marking a $16.4 billion increase from September [3] - The Chinese stock market has attracted approximately $3.5 billion in net inflows, continuing to be a key destination for global funds since the beginning of the year [3][5] - In contrast, foreign holdings of Chinese interbank market bonds have decreased for six consecutive months, totaling 37.3 trillion RMB, down approximately 710 billion RMB from the year's peak [3][5] Group 2: Factors Influencing Investment Decisions - The decline in interest in RMB bonds is attributed to factors such as interest rate spreads, stock market enthusiasm, and reduced foreign exchange returns [5][6] - The stock market's appeal is bolstered by breakthroughs in technology sectors and supportive capital market policies, with indices like MSCI China and Hang Seng showing around 30% gains year-to-date [5][8] - The current environment has led to a rotation of funds from the bond market to the stock market, influenced by a bearish trend in the bond market [5][6] Group 3: Future Outlook - International investors are expected to adopt a more rational and layered approach to allocating Chinese assets, focusing on both short-term factors like interest rates and long-term value [6][7] - The investment structure is anticipated to diversify, with increased attention on growth sectors such as technology, renewable energy, and high-end manufacturing [6][7] - Despite short-term pressures on capital outflows, the Chinese bond market remains attractive for long-term investment due to its scale, depth, and low correlation with global markets [7]