Core Insights - The Chinese bond market has seen a deepening of its opening process in 2025, with policy benefits continuously providing more convenience for foreign capital to enter the market [2][3] - Despite short-term fluctuations in foreign investment due to various factors, the long-term trend of foreign capital allocation in RMB bonds remains unchanged [5][6] Policy and Market Developments - In 2025, significant breakthroughs were achieved in the mechanisms and scope of China's bond market opening, providing better institutional guarantees for foreign participation [3] - Policies have been implemented to lower entry barriers for foreign investors and enhance operational convenience, including support for foreign institutions to engage in bond repurchase transactions [3] - The issuance mechanism for green panda bonds has been optimized, and the scope of the Bond Connect "southbound" channel has been expanded, further facilitating foreign access to the market [3] Foreign Investment Trends - In 2025, the Bond Connect "northbound" channel recorded a total transaction volume of 9.7 trillion RMB, with policy financial bonds and government bonds being the most actively traded [4] - As of December 2025, foreign institutions held 3.46 trillion RMB in the interbank bond market, accounting for 2.0% of the total custody volume [4] - The number of foreign institutional participants reached 1,189, with various channels being utilized for market entry [4] Market Dynamics and Challenges - Foreign investment in RMB bonds has shown short-term volatility due to factors such as the China-US interest rate differential and exchange rate fluctuations [5] - The deep inversion of the China-US interest rate spread has weakened the relative attractiveness of RMB bonds, particularly affecting foreign investment in government bonds [5] - The performance of the domestic equity market has attracted some foreign capital away from the bond market, leading to a temporary decrease in demand for RMB bonds [5] Long-term Outlook - Industry experts believe that the fluctuations in foreign investment are primarily due to short-term arbitrage rather than a systemic withdrawal, indicating the long-term attractiveness of the Chinese bond market [6] - As the US enters a rate-cutting cycle and the demand for diversified asset allocation increases, the attractiveness of Chinese bonds is expected to rise [7] - The trend of foreign capital steadily increasing its allocation to RMB bonds is supported by the low correlation of the Chinese bond market with major global fixed-income assets [7][8] Future Projections - The trend of foreign capital increasing its holdings of RMB bonds is expected to continue into 2026, with a shift towards diversified products such as credit bonds and asset-backed securities (ABS) [9] - The core strategy for foreign investment in 2026 will likely focus on long-duration government bonds, with expectations of improved yield attractiveness as the interest rate differential normalizes [10] - Overall, the continued improvement of the bond market's opening mechanisms is anticipated to lower entry barriers for foreign capital, with projections indicating that foreign bond holdings may exceed 4 trillion RMB by 2026 [10]

□ 支持香港金管局将人民币业务资金安排规模由1000亿元增加至2000亿元 □ 配合相关部门进一步增加离岸人民币国债年度发行规模 □ 探索拓展将人民币债券作为离岸合格担保品的机制 □ 支持上海黄金交易所通过各种方式参与香港黄金清算系统建设 ◎记者 徐潇潇 "香港已成为全球最大、最具影响力的人民币离岸业务枢纽。下一步，中国人民银行将坚定支持并继续 稳步推进香港离岸人民币市场建设。"1月26日，中国人民银行副行长邹澜在第19届亚洲金融论坛上说。 邹澜介绍了四方面举措： 一是增加人民币业务资金安排规模，为香港离岸市场提供更加充裕的流动性支持。为更好满足市场需 求，中国人民银行支持香港金管局将人民币业务资金安排规模由1000亿元增加至2000亿元。同时，支持 香港人民币清算行通过发行同业存单、账户融资等多种方式，从境内市场获取不同期限人民币流动性， 多措并举提升香港离岸人民币流动性水平。 二是继续推进金融市场互联互通，丰富境外投资者流动性管理和风险对冲工具。继续完善债券通、互换 通等机制安排，丰富利率、汇率等衍生工具，稳步推动人民币国债期货在港上市，探索拓展将人民币债 券作为离岸合格担保品的机制，稳妥有序推进境内外基 ...

记者丨 唐婧 编辑丨曾芳 继在岸、离岸人民币兑美元汇率双双升破7关口之后，人民币对美元汇率中间价亦悄然破7。 1月26日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，当日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价 为1美元对人民币6.9843元， 相较前一交易日中间价6.9929，调升86基点，续创2023年5月 （32个月）以来的新高。 图/21世纪经济报道 还有多名受访人士告诉记者，美联储降息背景下美元指数持续走弱、岁末年初时点企业结汇需 求上升，以及中国经济基本面整体形势改善是本轮人民币汇率升值的重要动力，且部分积极因 素仍将延续至2026年。 例如，长城证券首席经济学家汪毅预计，展望2026年，弱美元格局或将延续，美联储继续降息 成为大概率事件，而中国经济和出口存在支撑，人民币仍然处于双向波动区间，但升值节奏可 能转为平稳。 人民币避险属性进一步增强 人民币汇率中间价是指中国外汇交易中心根据中国人民银行授权，每日上午9:15发布的基准汇 率，覆盖人民币对美元、欧元、日元、港元、英镑等主要外汇币种。中间价由中国外汇交易中 心根据做市商报价计算得出，是银行间外汇交易市场和银行挂牌汇价的重要参考指标。 人民币兑美元汇率升值对 ...

【1月26日香港特区政府行政长官称人民币债券市场规模2024年破万亿】1月26日，香港特区政府行政长 官李家超在亚洲金融论坛透露，香港人民币债券市场持续活跃。2024年，该市场规模突破1万亿元人民 币，2025年预计维持这一水平。 李家超强调，香港作为连接世界与内地繁荣发展的门户，将继续探索 深化内地与香港金融市场互联互通举措。包括在港推出离岸国债期货、拓展"沪深港通"下的利率衍生品 业务。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

1月26日，中国人民银行副行长邹澜在亚洲金融论坛上宣布，为更好满足市场需求，人民银行支持香港 金管局将人民币业务资金安排规模由1000亿元增加至2000亿元。同时支持香港人民币清算行通过发行同 业存单，账户融资等多种方式，从境内市场获取不同期限人民币流动性，多措并举提升香港离岸人民币 流动性水平。 邹澜表示，随着人民币在跨境交易中被更广泛地使用，其支付、投融资和储备功能不断提升。据统计， 人民币已成为全球第二大贸易融资货币和第三大支付货币，在国际货币基金组织特别提款权（SDR）货 币篮子中的权重位列第三。 对于货币市场发展，邹澜介绍，中国人民银行与香港金管局于2024年2月和10月共同推动在香港开展人 民币债券的离岸回购及跨境回购业务。目前，已有34家境外机构投资者参与离岸回购，规模达1191亿 元；46家新增境外机构投资者累计开展跨境回购1503亿元。与此同时，衍生品市场的互联互通正在持续 深化，为香港人民币资产提供了日益完善的风险管理工具。截至当前，已有87家境外投资者通过香港进 入境内衍生品市场，开展利率互换交易，累计名义本金总额超过9.9万亿元人民币。 邹澜指出，中国人民银行将继续推进金融市场互联互通 ...

中国人民银行副行长 邹澜 摄/金颖 记者丨张伟泽 实习生金颖 周静仪 编辑丨和佳 1月26日，中国人民银行副行长邹澜在亚洲金融论坛上宣布，为更好满足市场需求， 人民银行 支持香港金管局将人民币业务资金安排规模由1000亿元增加至2000亿元。同时支持香港人民 币清算行通过发行同业存单，账户融资等多种方式，从境内市场获取不同期限人民币流动 性，多措并举提升香港离岸人民币流动性水平。 外基础设施托管行之间的联通合作，推动基础设施跨境监管资质互认，有序推动基础设施走 出去，跨境提供服务。 邹澜进一步表示，中国人民银行将增加离岸人民币国债供给规模，提高市场流动性，为满足 境外投资者对优质人民币资产配置的需要，人民银行将配合相关部门进一步增加离岸人民币 国债年度发行规模，建立完善离岸市场做实机制，活跃市场交易，提升人民币定价能力。 邹澜还称，支持香港黄金市场建设，增强香港离岸人民币市场功能。1月26日，香港与上海黄 金交易所签署有关黄金市场发展的合作协议。他表示，上海黄金交易所设立香港黄金交割库 及相关合约上市，进一步丰富了投资者在香港开展离岸的资产配置的选择。中国人民银行将 支持上海黄金交易所通过各种方式参与香港黄金 ...

Core Viewpoint - As of January 16, 2026, Industrial Bank Co., Ltd. (601166) closed at 20.08 CNY, down 3.65% from the previous week's 20.84 CNY, indicating a decline in stock performance [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The highest intraday price for Industrial Bank on January 14 was 21.18 CNY, while the lowest intraday price on January 16 was 19.97 CNY [1] - The current total market capitalization of Industrial Bank is 424.95 billion CNY, ranking 2nd among 9 in the joint-stock bank sector and 30th among 5,183 in the A-share market [1] Group 2: Trading and Corporate Announcements - On January 15, there was a large transaction of 102 million CNY involving Industrial Bank [2][3] - Industrial Bank's Shanghai Free Trade Zone branch issued bonds worth 3 billion CNY under a 5 billion USD medium-term note program, with an interest rate of 1.95% and a maturity of 3 years, aimed at supporting credit business development [2][3]

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of declining RMB interest rates post-2022, leading to a bull market in RMB bonds [2] - It highlights that lower interest rates significantly affect the stock market, particularly benefiting dividend-paying stocks and small-cap stocks [3] - The sensitivity of small-cap stocks to funding is emphasized, with historical examples showing their rise during periods of low interest rates, such as the A-share small-cap bull market from 2014 to 2015 [3] Group 2 - The article explains that the cash flow from bonds comes from interest payments, while stocks generate cash flow through dividends [4] - With the decline in long-term bond and deposit interest rates, institutional investors like insurance companies are reallocating funds to higher dividend assets to ensure stable cash flow [5] - It notes that from 2022 to 2024, the dividend strategy is expected to perform strongly due to increased allocations from institutions [5]

Macroeconomic Insights - China's economic growth is characterized by a shift from a single focus on growth rate to a more balanced and stable economic structure, with significant contributions from domestic consumption [2] - The resilience of exports has exceeded expectations despite external tariff pressures, indicating a robust adaptability of China's economic fundamentals [2] - The "anti-involution" policies are positively impacting the midstream manufacturing sector, leading to a revaluation of value driven by deeper industrial structure changes [2] Bond Market Analysis - The 10-year government bond yield is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a range of approximately 30 basis points, reflecting a complex interplay of market forces [3] - The narrative in the bond market has shifted from linear macroeconomic projections to a focus on event impacts, policy expectations, and institutional behaviors [3] - Chinese bonds are becoming increasingly attractive to global investors, offering stable returns and low correlation, positioning them as a potential "stability anchor" in global portfolios [4] Artificial Intelligence Sector - The AI sector is transitioning from a "technology race" to a practical "value realization" phase, with rapid industry expansion and a shift in investment focus from infrastructure to application layers [5] - The structure of the AI industry is expected to resemble an inverted pyramid, with increasing market size driven by applications, models, and chips [5] - Companies with a growing share of AI revenue are likely to attract more capital market attention, leading to potential valuation increases [5] Commodity Market Trends - The commodity market is undergoing a significant value reassessment, with a clear divide in performance between traditional cyclical products and sectors like precious and non-ferrous metals [7] - Analysts predict that the structural differentiation in the commodity market will continue, driven by supply reshaping, policy adjustments, and enhanced financial attributes [7] - Non-ferrous metals are widely regarded as having the most significant upside potential in the upcoming market landscape [7]

Group 1 - The offshore RMB exchange rate broke the psychological barrier of 7.0 against the USD, reaching 6.9973, marking the first return to the "6 era" since September 2024 [3] - The appreciation of the RMB directly impacts consumers, making imported goods cheaper, such as a jacket that now costs less than 7000 RMB instead of 7300 RMB [3] - Families sending children to study in the US benefit from the exchange rate, with costs for living and studying in New York dropping from approximately 36.5 million RMB to about 35 million RMB [5] Group 2 - The import prices of goods are experiencing subtle changes, with a 5% cost reduction for imported olive oil, which may be passed on to consumers [7] - The luxury goods market is seeing a shift, with Chinese consumers spending 8% more on overseas purchases, while domestic sales only grew by 2% [8] - Export enterprises face challenges due to the exchange rate changes, with a small trading company reporting a loss of 30,000 RMB on a 100,000 USD order due to the rate drop from 7.3 to 7.0 [10] Group 3 - High-end manufacturing and self-branded products maintain stronger pricing power amid exchange rate fluctuations [12] - The appreciation of the RMB is prompting domestic investors to reassess their foreign currency assets, with one investor noting a negative real return on USD-denominated products [12] - The Chinese bond market is attracting international capital, with foreign investors increasing their holdings of RMB bonds by approximately 80 billion RMB [14] Group 4 - The real estate market is experiencing a decline in overseas property inquiries by 12%, while interest in high-end domestic properties has risen by 8% [14] - The diversification of China's foreign exchange reserves is evident, with non-USD currencies now making up about 45% of reserves, up from 35% in 2020 [16] - The development of the offshore RMB market is enhancing the market-driven nature of the exchange rate, with deposits surpassing 1.2 trillion RMB [16] Group 5 - The internationalization of the RMB is progressing, with bilateral currency swap agreements expanding by about 30% and the RMB's share in cross-border trade settlements rising to approximately 25% [18] - The central bank is actively managing market expectations through middle rate adjustments to ensure stability in the RMB exchange rate [18] - The revaluation of currency reflects a shift in the economic position of China within the global landscape, potentially reshaping global wealth distribution [20]