媒体报道，中国大笔甩卖美债，带动全球跟风抛售，美国债台高筑，美联储快扛不住了。很多人一看数字就觉得大事不妙，但实际情况远没那么夸张。 先说中国这边，美国财政部TIC数据是最权威的来源。到2025年2月，中国大陆持有美债7843亿美元，比2025年1月的7608亿美元还略增了点。 美债吸引力确实降了，美国债务总额2025年11月已超37万亿，利息支出快1万亿，但全球还没找到更好的替代品。美元储备占比虽降到58%左右，但仍是主 导。抛售潮的说法，主要来自部分自媒体把旧数据和新传闻混在一起放大。 2024全年中国减持573亿美元没错，但这不是突然大甩卖，而是从2022年开始的渐进式调整。2022年减1732亿，2023年减508亿，2024年减573亿，平均每月 几十亿的样子，既不激进也不拖拉。 很多人说"减持4000亿"，其实是把从2013年峰值1.3万亿到现在减掉的部分全算上了，累计确实超4000亿人民币，但这十几年跨度，包含了美债价格下跌的 被动因素和主动分散风险的双重原因。 2024年10月中国减持119亿，11月又增持85亿，12月减96亿，整体节奏很稳。外汇局和央行从来没说过要大规模抛售美债，相反，一直 ...

Core Insights - The global investment landscape for RMB assets is showing a divergence, with foreign institutional investors reducing their holdings in RMB bonds while showing increased enthusiasm for Chinese equities [2][3] - The shift from bonds to stocks is driven by various factors including interest rate differentials, stock market trends, and declining foreign exchange returns [5][6] Group 1: Investment Trends - International investors have significantly increased their allocation to emerging market stocks, with a notable inflow of $12.9 billion in October, marking a $16.4 billion increase from September [3] - The Chinese stock market has attracted approximately $3.5 billion in net inflows, continuing to be a key destination for global funds since the beginning of the year [3][5] - In contrast, foreign holdings of Chinese interbank market bonds have decreased for six consecutive months, totaling 37.3 trillion RMB, down approximately 710 billion RMB from the year's peak [3][5] Group 2: Factors Influencing Investment Decisions - The decline in interest in RMB bonds is attributed to factors such as interest rate spreads, stock market enthusiasm, and reduced foreign exchange returns [5][6] - The stock market's appeal is bolstered by breakthroughs in technology sectors and supportive capital market policies, with indices like MSCI China and Hang Seng showing around 30% gains year-to-date [5][8] - The current environment has led to a rotation of funds from the bond market to the stock market, influenced by a bearish trend in the bond market [5][6] Group 3: Future Outlook - International investors are expected to adopt a more rational and layered approach to allocating Chinese assets, focusing on both short-term factors like interest rates and long-term value [6][7] - The investment structure is anticipated to diversify, with increased attention on growth sectors such as technology, renewable energy, and high-end manufacturing [6][7] - Despite short-term pressures on capital outflows, the Chinese bond market remains attractive for long-term investment due to its scale, depth, and low correlation with global markets [7]

Core Points - The relationship between the U.S. and Canada has deteriorated significantly due to a $75 million advertisement in Ontario that referenced Reagan's anti-tariff stance, marking the end of North American economic integration [1][3] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney's statement reflects the shift from traditional advantages of close ties with the U.S. to vulnerabilities, with Canada heavily reliant on the U.S. for 75% of its exports [3][5] - The U.S. has imposed significant tariffs on Canadian goods, leading to a 7.5% decline in Canadian exports and a 1.6% year-on-year GDP drop in Q2 2025 [3][5] Trade Relations - The breakdown in trade relations began on October 23, 2025, when Trump announced the termination of all trade negotiations and imposed a 10% tariff on Canadian goods [3] - Trump's previous threats to halt negotiations over Canada's digital services tax further exacerbated uncertainties for Canadian businesses [5] Economic Impact - Canada is implementing a "de-Americanization" plan to increase non-U.S. market exports by CAD 300 billion over the next decade, including trade agreements with Indonesia and the UAE [5][7] - The Montreal Port expansion, costing CAD 1.6 to 2.3 billion, aims to enhance trade logistics but faces natural limitations and historical trust issues due to strikes [7] Supply Chain Reconfiguration - The trade rift is causing significant restructuring in supply chains, particularly in the North American automotive sector, with Canada reducing tariff-free import quotas for major automakers [7] - Unemployment in Canada has reached a nine-year high, with 500,000 jobs in Ontario at risk due to the trade tensions [7] Global Economic Trends - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions over interest rate cuts, with implications for the U.S. dollar's status as a global reserve currency [9][11] - The ongoing trade conflict may accelerate the process of global multipolarity, although markets in Southeast Asia currently lack the purchasing power to replace the U.S. market [11]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of foreign currency bonds by China, despite having substantial foreign exchange reserves, is a strategic move aimed at establishing a pricing benchmark for domestic enterprises, enhancing global trust, and expanding financial networks [2][3][5][6]. Group 1: Foreign Currency Bond Issuance - China recently issued $4 billion in bonds in Hong Kong and plans to issue €4 billion in Luxembourg, raising questions about the necessity of such actions given its ample foreign exchange reserves [1]. - The total external debt of China, as of June, stands at approximately $24,368 billion, with RMB debt constituting 52% of this total, indicating a significant presence of RMB in the external debt structure [2]. - The issuance of foreign currency bonds serves to set favorable interest rates for Chinese enterprises in international markets, thereby reducing their financing costs [2][3]. Group 2: Strategic Considerations - Issuing foreign currency bonds is a method of credit management and gaining global trust, as evidenced by the high demand for recent bond offerings, including over $100 billion in subscriptions for the Hong Kong bonds [3][5]. - The choice of locations for bond issuance, such as Hong Kong and Luxembourg, is intended to deepen connections with local financial markets and attract diverse international investors [5][6]. - The issuance of foreign currency bonds is also a strategic gesture to facilitate the internationalization of the RMB, as it helps to gain acceptance in major financial centers [5][6]. Group 3: Long-term Implications - Regular issuance of foreign currency bonds maintains cooperation with the international financial ecosystem, ensuring that China remains relevant in global capital markets [6][8]. - The trust established through foreign currency bonds can be leveraged to promote RMB-denominated products in the future, creating a pathway for the internationalization of the RMB [8][9]. - The long-term goal is to convert the established trust into demand for RMB assets, potentially leading to a gradual process of currency substitution [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emerging challenge to the US dollar's global dominance, highlighting China's efforts to rebuild a trust system for currency using gold, marking a revolutionary shift in the concept of money [1]. Group 1: Dollar Trust Erosion - For decades, over 70% of global foreign exchange reserves were tied to dollar assets, with countries relying on US Treasury bonds to safeguard their wealth [3]. - The freezing of approximately $300 billion of Russia's foreign reserves by the US in 2022 shattered this trust, signaling that the dollar is not merely an asset but a liability of the US [3]. - This incident prompted central banks worldwide to reduce their holdings of US Treasuries and increase their gold reserves, with China emerging as the largest official gold buyer [3]. Group 2: China's Gold Corridor - China has established a "Gold Corridor" centered around the Shanghai Gold Exchange, which is the largest physical gold market globally, supported by a network of vaults in Hong Kong, the Middle East, and Africa [6]. - This system allows countries holding renminbi to directly exchange it for physical gold, effectively transforming the renminbi into a reserve currency backed by gold [6]. - The initiative aims to create a parallel financial system to the US dollar, bypassing traditional systems like SWIFT and the IMF, with a focus on BRICS nations [6]. Group 3: Future of Gold in Finance - By July 2025, gold will be recognized as a level one asset under Basel III, allowing it to be counted at 100% value on banks' balance sheets, restoring its status as a monetary asset [6]. - Central banks are pushing for gold to be classified as a "high-quality liquid asset," which would enable it to be used for collateral in repurchase financing, fundamentally altering the global financial system [6]. Group 4: Diverging Financial Systems - A clear division is emerging between two financial systems: one led by China and the BRICS, anchored in gold, and the other by the US and the West, based on digital dollars and stablecoins [9]. - This transformation is already impacting asset prices, with central banks and sovereign funds averaging 20% of their reserves in gold or equivalent physical assets, with recommendations to increase this to 30% [9]. - The anticipated increase in gold demand could reach approximately $2 trillion globally, as gold cannot be printed like dollars, suggesting a potential "structural revaluation" of gold prices in the next five years [9]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies are becoming clearer, with recommendations for strategic allocations in gold ETFs, cyclical assets like copper and other metals, and innovative assets such as Bitcoin [9]. - Assets denominated in renminbi, including government bonds, blue-chip stocks, and commodities, are expected to benefit from the trend of de-dollarization, becoming new safe havens as global capital exits the dollar system [9]. Group 6: Trust in Currency - Gold represents a return to "trust," while Bitcoin symbolizes "innovation in trust," together forming the dual pillars of the post-dollar era [11]. - The future may see a diversified currency landscape, with China rebuilding tangible trust through gold and the US maintaining institutional trust through technology [11].

Group 1 - The article discusses the volatility of long-term bond funds compared to short-term bond funds, indicating that long-term bond funds experience greater fluctuations due to interest rate changes [2] - It is noted that the yield of long-term bond funds comes from both interest income and capital gains from bond price fluctuations [2] - The article predicts that by 2025, the interest rates for RMB bonds will gradually increase from a low of 1.6% in 2024 to around 1.8%-1.9% in 2025, which will lead to a decline in the net value of long-term pure bond funds [2] - As interest rates rise, many long-term bond funds are expected to experience a decline of 3%-5% in 2025 due to the bear market conditions [2] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that while interest income is present, it is insufficient to offset the decline in bond prices, ultimately resulting in a decrease in the net value of pure bond funds [3]

Key Insights - The total financing amount raised by companies in mainland China in the global capital markets reached $92.62 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 120% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11% [1] - The number of issuances increased by 42% compared to the same period in 2024, totaling 404 transactions, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 16% in Q3 2025 [1] - The total amount raised from Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) was $15.5 billion, marking an 83% year-on-year increase and a 47% quarter-on-quarter increase [1] - The total amount raised from follow-on offerings reached $55.32 billion, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 250%, although it decreased by 6% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The issuance of convertible bonds and equity-linked securities totaled $21.8 billion, reflecting a 23% year-on-year increase and a 39% quarter-on-quarter increase [1] Industry Performance - The industrial sector led the market with a 23% share, raising a total of $21.09 billion, which is a 98% increase compared to the same period last year [3] - Following the industrial sector, the high-tech, energy and power, healthcare, and telecommunications sectors also contributed significantly to the capital raised [3] Underwriter Rankings - Morgan Stanley ranked first among underwriters for Chinese stocks and equity-linked securities in 2025 [4] - CITIC Securities and Gao Hua ranked second and third, respectively, with total underwriting amounts of $10.43 billion and $9.47 billion [5] Legal Advisory Rankings - Jingtian & Gongcheng ranked first among legal advisors for Chinese stock and equity-linked issuers [5] - In the underwriting legal advisor rankings, Jingtian & Gongcheng also held the top position [6] Bond Market Insights - The issuance of RMB bonds increased by 23% year-on-year, while the issuance of Panda bonds decreased by 18% compared to 2024 [8] - Government and institutional bond issuances accounted for approximately 12.1 trillion RMB, representing 52% of the market share, with a year-on-year growth of 32% [10] - CITIC led the RMB bond underwriting rankings, while the Bank of China ranked first in Panda bond underwriting [12] Syndicated Loan Market - The Bank of China led the syndicated and club loan rankings across all currencies, with a total amount of 22.065 billion RMB, holding a market share of 43.3% [16] - The overall syndicated loan market saw a significant decline, with a 51% decrease in loan amounts compared to the previous year [16]

Group 1: Chinese Stock and Equity-Linked Market - In the first three quarters of 2025, Chinese companies raised a total of $92.62 billion in the global capital markets through stock and equity-linked transactions, marking a year-on-year increase of 120% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11% [3][8] - The number of issuances increased by 42% compared to the same period in 2024, totaling 404 transactions, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 16% from Q2 2025 [3] - Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) reached $15.5 billion, up 83% year-on-year and 47% quarter-on-quarter, while follow-on offerings totaled $55.32 billion, reflecting a 250% year-on-year increase but a 6% decrease quarter-on-quarter [3] - The industrial sector led the market with a 23% share, raising $21.09 billion, a 98% increase from the previous year, followed by high technology, energy and power, healthcare, and telecommunications [5] Group 2: Underwriters and Legal Advisors - Morgan Stanley ranked first among underwriters in the Chinese stock and equity-linked market in 2025, with an issuance amount of $10.509 billion and a market share of 11.4% [7][8] - The top legal advisor for issuers in the Chinese stock and equity-linked market was Jingtian & Gongcheng Law Firm, with 28 transactions [9] - Jingtian & Gongcheng Law Firm also led the ranking for underwriting legal advisors, handling 27 transactions [10] Group 3: Chinese Bond Market Overview - The issuance of RMB bonds increased by 23% year-on-year, although there was a 4% decrease in Q3 compared to Q2 2025 [11][15] - Panda bond issuance decreased by 18% year-on-year, with a 6% quarter-on-quarter decline [12] - Government and institutional bond issuance reached approximately 12.1 trillion RMB, accounting for 52% of the market share, a 32% year-on-year increase and a 4% quarter-on-quarter increase [15] Group 4: Leading Underwriters in RMB Bonds - CITIC Securities led the RMB bond market with an issuance amount of 1.676 trillion RMB, holding a market share of 7.2% [17] - The top legal advisor for RMB bonds was King & Wood Mallesons, while JunHe Law Offices led the G3 currency bond market [18][20] Group 5: Syndicated Loans - The China Bank ranked first in the syndicated and club loan market across all currencies, with a loan amount of $22.065 billion, representing a market share of 43.3% [22] - There was a significant decline in loan amounts, with a 51% decrease year-on-year for all currencies [22][23]

Core Points - Gao Fei has been appointed as the Party Secretary of the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, succeeding Huo Yingli, who has retired due to age [1] - Gao Fei previously held various positions within the Financial Market Department, including Deputy Director and Deputy Inspector [3] - The China Foreign Exchange Trading Center aims to enhance the internationalization of the domestic financial market and support the internationalization of the Renminbi [4] Group 1 - Gao Fei's appointment is expected to continue the push for further opening of the bond market to foreign investors, including exploring new custody models and improving risk hedging tools [3] - As of August 2025, 1,170 foreign institutions from 80 countries and regions have entered the Chinese bond market, holding approximately 4 trillion RMB [4] - The Trading Center serves as a crucial infrastructure for China's financial market, providing various services including issuance, trading, and post-trade processing [4][5] Group 2 - The Trading Center is responsible for daily market monitoring and the self-regulatory mechanisms for market interest rate pricing [5] - The current leadership team of the Trading Center includes Gao Fei as Party Secretary, Zhang Yi as President, and several Vice Presidents [5]

Core Viewpoint - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is progressing steadily, and its global influence is underestimated when solely relying on SWIFT payment rankings [3][6][10]. Group 1: RMB's Global Payment Position - The SWIFT ranking places RMB fifth in global payments, leading to skepticism about its international influence [3]. - SWIFT's statistics include all payments processed through its system, which may not accurately reflect RMB's usage since many domestic transactions do not go through SWIFT [6]. - The establishment of CIPS (Cross-Border Interbank Payment System) allows for significant RMB transactions that are not captured in SWIFT's data, indicating a more substantial global presence than suggested by rankings [6][12]. Group 2: RMB in Trade and Investment - Many countries along the Belt and Road Initiative are increasingly using RMB for direct trade settlements, reducing reliance on USD and EUR [8]. - As of mid-2025, foreign holdings of RMB assets exceeded 10 trillion, demonstrating strong international demand for RMB-denominated bonds and stocks [8][10]. - RMB's share in global trade financing reached over 7% by September 2025, second only to USD, highlighting its growing acceptance in international trade [12]. Group 3: RMB's Role in Global Financial Stability - Since 2016, RMB has been included in the IMF's SDR basket, signifying its status alongside major currencies like USD and EUR [10]. - In times of global financial instability, RMB has emerged as a safe-haven asset, with many central banks entering into currency swap agreements with China [10][14]. - The trend of "de-dollarization" globally is creating opportunities for RMB to gain further traction as an alternative currency [14]. Group 4: Future Outlook for RMB Internationalization - The internationalization of RMB is a gradual process, with its global payment share increasing from less than 1% in 2011 to a more significant figure today [12][14]. - The development of CIPS enhances the speed and security of RMB transactions, attracting more countries to adopt RMB for settlements [14]. - The future of RMB internationalization is promising, contingent on China's economic stability and ongoing financial reforms [14][16].