管涛、刘立品（管涛系中银证券全球首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事） 摘 要 7月份，美国关税政策继续增加全球贸易不确定性，但市场反应弱化，美元指数止跌回升，在岸人民币时点汇率有所回调，均值汇率则继续走强，但市场 主体并未积累补涨预期。 7月份，跨境资金转为小幅净流出，外资对股票资产兴趣增强，但远期美元贴水幅度大幅收窄导致外资减持人民币债券规模创下历史新高，跨境人民币和 证券投资支出规模均刷新历史纪录。 7月份，银行结售汇顺差继续扩大，市场主体囤积和抢购外汇动机减弱，金融机构境内外汇存款余额从月度"七连升"转为下降。 风险提示：地缘政治风险超预期，主要央行货币政策调整超预期，国内经济复苏不如预期。 正文 8月15日，国家外汇管理局发布了2025年7月外汇收支数据。现结合最新数据对7月份境内外汇市场运行情况具体分析如下： 美元指数止跌回升，人民币汇率明弱实强，市场主体并未积累补涨预期 7月份，美国关税政策继续增加全球贸易不确定性。在4月2日宣布"对等关税"、4月9日暂缓对部分贸易伙伴征收"对等关税"90天之后，特朗普于7月7日宣 布延长"对等关税"暂缓期，将实施时间从7月9日推迟到8月1日；7月31日签署行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article focuses on the high-quality development direction of China's bond market internationalization, highlighting significant progress in areas such as openness, foreign investment scale, green sovereign bond innovation, and market connectivity [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Progress in China's Bond Market Internationalization - China's bond market has seen notable advancements, characterized by increased openness and expanded scope since the implementation of the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system in 2002 [3]. - In 2024, the interbank bond market recorded a transaction volume of 377.8 trillion yuan, with an average daily transaction of 1.5 trillion yuan, while the exchange bond market had a transaction volume of 41.7 trillion yuan [3]. - The scale of foreign investment in RMB bonds has been rising, with foreign institutions holding a total of 4.5 trillion yuan in RMB bonds as of April 15, 2025, marking an increase of over 270 billion yuan from the previous year [5]. Green Sovereign Bonds as a New Breakthrough - The domestic green finance market has developed rapidly, with green bond stock reaching approximately 2.1 trillion yuan by the end of 2024 [8]. - In February 2025, China issued its first green sovereign bond worth 6 billion yuan, marking a significant step in integrating green elements into the sovereign offshore multi-currency yield curve [8]. Deepening Market Connectivity - The range of investor participation has expanded, allowing various types of investors to engage more easily in the bond market [9]. - The infrastructure of the bond market has been continuously improved, enhancing operational efficiency and reducing transaction costs [9]. New Opportunities for Bond Market Internationalization - China's economy is projected to grow at around 5% in 2025, providing a solid foundation for the internationalization of the bond market [10]. - The high level of financial openness has significantly enhanced the recognition and acceptance of RMB bonds in international markets [11]. - The relative stability of RMB bonds has become more apparent amid increasing concerns over dollar assets, making them an attractive option for global investors [14]. International Experience to Learn From - Mature bond markets typically feature a comprehensive legal framework, rigorous regulatory structures, and effective risk management systems, which can serve as a reference for China's bond market development [15][16]. - A multi-tiered operational mechanism is common in developed bond markets, where institutional investors play a dominant role, ensuring market stability and liquidity [17]. Policy Recommendations for High-Quality Development - It is suggested to enhance the trading mechanism of the bond market to better serve the real economy, including establishing a unified market infrastructure and optimizing trading mechanisms [21]. - Strengthening the role of government bonds as a market benchmark and improving the structure of government bond issuance is recommended to address asset scarcity [23]. - Expanding funding channels and promoting a diverse investor structure, including encouraging pension funds and insurance capital to invest in long-term bonds, is also advised [24].

Core Insights - The Bond Connect has been operational for 7 years, serving as a crucial link between domestic and international bond markets, reflecting China's high-level financial market openness [1] - The international influence and attractiveness of China's bond market have significantly increased, with foreign investors holding a record amount of Chinese bonds, growing by 400% since the launch of Bond Connect [1] - Despite this growth, foreign institutional holdings in China's bond market remain low at under 3%, indicating substantial potential for future development [1] Summary by Sections Market Development - The bond market has seen a steady increase in the diversity and number of investors, with foreign holdings reaching new highs [1] - Since 2019, Chinese bonds have been included in major global bond indices, reflecting global institutional investors' confidence in China's economic stability and financial market openness [1] Future Opportunities - The key to maintaining the bond market's attractiveness lies in enhancing the breadth and depth of its openness, transitioning from factor-driven to rule-based openness [1] - There is a need for further improvement in the interconnectivity of the bond market, with new measures like the "Swap Connect" being developed [2] - Enhancements in liquidity management and risk hedging tools for foreign investors are essential, along with the exploration of using RMB bonds as offshore collateral [2] - The promotion of cross-border regulatory recognition and tax exemption policies for foreign investors will create a more favorable investment environment [2]

Group 1 - The enthusiasm of international investors in China's bond market continues to rise, with foreign net purchases of domestic bonds nearing $80 billion in the first half of 2024, marking the second-highest value for the same period in history [1] - As of the end of June, the scale of bonds held by foreign investors in the interbank market reached a record high of 4.31 trillion yuan, with 1,133 foreign institutional entities participating in the market [1] - The main types of bonds being increased by foreign investors include interbank certificates of deposit, policy financial bonds, and government bonds, as the comprehensive returns from investing in RMB bonds are higher than those from US Treasury bonds [1][2] Group 2 - The comprehensive yield for foreign investors buying 1-year Chinese government bonds and signing a 1-year forward contract is 5.85%, significantly higher than the 4.36% yield on 1-year US Treasury bonds [2] - The hedging properties of RMB bonds are also a reason for the increase in foreign investment, with RMB bonds showing low correlation with yields from G7 countries and other emerging economies [2] - The current stage of foreign capital inflow into RMB bonds is seen as preliminary, with expectations for a richer variety of domestic bond holdings as the infrastructure of the domestic credit bond market improves [2] Group 3 - China's foreign trade continues to show a positive trend, with a high surplus in goods trade and orderly recovery in service trade, contributing to a stable cross-border capital flow [3] - The overall economic operation in China is stable, with a GDP growth of 5% year-on-year in the first half of the year, supporting the expectation of continued stability in cross-border capital flows [3] - The resilience of the foreign exchange market and improved risk management capabilities of enterprises are expected to help maintain rational and orderly foreign exchange transactions [3]

Core Insights - Recent participation of over 1,160 foreign institutions in China's bond market indicates a growing confidence in the sector, with total bond holdings reaching 4.5 trillion yuan, an increase of over 270 billion yuan since the end of 2024 [1] - The total size of China's bond market has reached 183 trillion yuan, making it the second largest in the world, with significant increases in the weight of Chinese bonds in major international indices [1] - The current foreign investor bond holding ratio is only 2.4%, suggesting substantial room for growth compared to developed and some emerging markets [2] Group 1 - Over 1,160 foreign institutions from more than 70 countries and regions are actively participating in China's bond market, with total holdings of 4.5 trillion yuan, an increase of over 270 billion yuan since the end of 2024 [1] - The issuance of Panda bonds by foreign institutions has exceeded 950 billion yuan, reflecting strong interest in China's debt instruments [1] - China's bond market has been included in major international indices, with the weight of Chinese government bonds in the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index reaching 9.7%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points over four years [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China plans to continue promoting high-level openness in the bond market, aiming to attract more foreign investors, especially long-term investors [2] - The current foreign investment ratio in China's bond market is relatively low at 2.4%, indicating significant potential for future growth [2]

Group 1 - 30% of central banks surveyed plan to increase allocation to RMB assets, indicating a growing interest in diversifying investments into China [1] - The RMB has appreciated by 1.9% against the USD in the first half of the year, with a trading range between 7.15 and 7.35 [1] - Foreign investment in RMB-denominated bonds has exceeded $600 billion, reflecting a stable trend since 2025 [1] Group 2 - The RMB is experiencing structural changes, with a shift in expectations towards appreciation rather than depreciation [2] - The long-term low interest rate environment in China, with 10-year government bond yields below 2%, contrasts with the US yields above 4%, supporting RMB's internationalization [2] Group 3 - The credibility of US Treasury bonds is declining, as evidenced by increased volatility and a 5% drop in the USD index following tariff announcements [3][4] - The shift in trade dynamics due to tariffs may enhance the use of non-USD currencies, including RMB, in international trade settlements [5] Group 4 - The current low allocation of global stock assets to China (1.7%) compared to the US (54%) suggests a potential for systematic correction in the future [6] - China's manufacturing sector continues to lead globally, with a manufacturing value added of over 40.5 trillion yuan, accounting for approximately 30% of global manufacturing [7] Group 5 - The market position of the RMB is improving, with foreign investors increasingly holding RMB-denominated assets, which currently account for about 3%-4% of total market value [8] - Economic stability and the effectiveness of domestic demand policies are expected to further enhance the attractiveness of RMB assets to foreign investors [8] Group 6 - The RMB's exchange rate is expected to remain stable, supported by high-quality economic development and ongoing foreign exchange market resilience [9] - The need for the RMB to maintain appropriate elasticity in its exchange rate is emphasized to mitigate downward pressure [9] Group 7 - Recent measures to facilitate cross-border investment and financing are expected to enhance the attractiveness of RMB assets, with significant reductions in processing times for foreign investment [10] - Allowing for a moderate appreciation of the RMB could help alleviate concerns about currency depreciation among foreign investors, fostering a positive investment environment [10][11]

Group 1 - The foreign exchange market in China showed strong resilience and vitality in the first half of 2025, with cross-border income and expenditure reaching a historical high of 7.6 trillion USD, a year-on-year increase of 10.4% [1] - There was a net inflow of 127.3 billion USD in cross-border funds, with a significant quarter-on-quarter growth of 46% in the second quarter [1] - The foreign exchange reserves remained stable at 33,174 billion USD by the end of June, with the RMB accounting for 53% of cross-border receipts and payments [1] Group 2 - Foreign investment in RMB-denominated bonds has increased, with foreign holdings exceeding 600 billion USD, indicating strong international interest in the RMB bond market [3] - In the stock market, foreign net purchases of domestic stocks and funds reached 10.1 billion USD in the first half of the year, reversing a two-year trend of net selling [3] - Notably, the net increase in foreign holdings in May and June alone was 18.8 billion USD, reflecting a renewed confidence among international investors in the Chinese stock market [3] Group 3 - The stable development of the economic fundamentals has created a favorable macro environment for foreign investment, with several international investment banks upgrading China's asset ratings from neutral to overweight [4] - High-quality development of the financial market has provided a conducive policy environment for foreign investment, enhancing the convenience of foreign participation in China's financial markets [4] - China's financial market system is comprehensive and deep, with both bond and stock market capitalizations ranking second globally, offering diverse investment options for foreign investors [4]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 3600-point mark for the first time since October 8, 2024, closing at 3582.3 points with a slight increase of 0.01% [2] - The A-share market maintained high trading volume, reaching 1.9 trillion yuan, slightly down from the previous day's 1.93 trillion yuan [2] - The "Yaxiashuidian" concept stocks, related to the newly established China Yajiang Group and its major hydropower project, saw significant gains, with several stocks achieving three consecutive trading limit ups [2] Group 2 - The newly launched Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project has a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, making it the largest infrastructure project globally, with a planned capacity of about 60 million kilowatts, 2.7 times that of the Three Gorges Project [2] - The construction period for the Yaxiashuidian project is estimated to be around 10 years, with an annual investment of approximately 120 billion yuan, expected to boost infrastructure investment by about 0.8% annually [2] - The project is projected to generate a GDP increment of approximately 2.04 trillion yuan over 10 years, averaging an annual increase of about 0.15% [2] Group 3 - The market has shown a "slow bull" trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 500 points from around 3040 points to nearly 3600 points in the past three months [3][4] - Investor sentiment is increasingly optimistic about the potential for a bull market, with discussions around the significance of the 3600-point level [3][4] - Analysts suggest that if the market can effectively break through the 3700 to 3800-point range, it may enter a sustained slow bull market [4] Group 4 - Incremental capital is identified as a key driver for market growth, with significant investments from Central Huijin Investment Co., which has increased its holdings in various ETFs by over 190 billion yuan [5] - The influx of foreign capital into RMB assets has been stable, with foreign holdings of domestic RMB bonds exceeding 600 billion USD, indicating a positive trend in foreign investment in the Chinese stock market [6] - The market is currently characterized by a structural opportunity driven by policy support and profit recovery, with institutional investors focusing on undervalued sectors such as banks and brokerages [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report provides a daily update on the fixed - income market, including price changes of various bonds, new issue mandates, and macro - news. It also analyzes the proposed bond issuance of China Mengniu Dairy [1][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - Chinese IGs like BABA/JD/SINOPE 48 - 57s were 0.5 - 1.9pts higher (1 - 15bps tighter). HSBC/STANLN Float 30 - 31s in financials closed 2 - 3bps tighter. SHIKON/NSINTW/CATLIF 33 - 35s in insurance widened 1 - 5bps. S&P assigned Fubon Life A - rating with stable outlook. NIPLIF/MYLIFE 55s and FUKOKU Perp were up 0.1pt. SOCGEN 6.75/LLOYDS 6.413 Perps in AT1s were 0.3 - 0.6pt lower, while INTNED 3.875/HSBC 7.05 Perp were up 0.1 - 0.2pt. BNKEA/NANYAN 34s in HK were unchanged to 2bps wider. HYSAN 7.2 Perp was up 0.5pt, NWDEVL Perps were 0.2 - 0.7pt lower. GRNCH 28/CHIOLI 42 - 43s in Chinese properties were 0.4 - 0.6pt higher, ROADKG 28 - 30s/Perps were unchanged to 0.7pt lower. WESCHI 26/HONGQI 28 were 0.7 - 1.0pt higher. VEDLN 28 - 33s in SE Asia were up 0.2 - 0.5pt, and MONMIN 30 was up 0.8pt [1]. - In CNH space, CHMEDA announced new issue mandates for 5yr and 10yr CNH bonds. Higher - yielding CNH LGFVs like LYGYIH 7.5 27s/SDGAOC 6.9 27s were sought after, and onshore AAA - guaranteed CNH LGFVs like QINLID 5.9 28s/HSIVEH 6.5 28s continued to compress. HAOHUA 28 - 30s tightened 1 - 2bps, MEITUA 30 widened 3bps, DAESEC 27 - 29s widened 1 - 2bps, and LASUDE 26 was up 0.5pt [2][3]. - LIFUNG announced a new issue mandate for a 3.5yr USD bond, and launched a tender offer for LIFUNG 5.25 Perp up to USD50mn at USD55. Pricing of new bonds is expected on 28 Jul'25, and the tender - offer expiration date is on 31 Jul'25. LIFUNG 5.25 Perp was unchanged [3]. - In USD LGFVs, CPDEV 28 was up 0.1pt. Higher - yielding USD names like HBTUID 7.5 26s/XHCTID 7 27s/FZSZJJ 7 28s tightened around 10bps. In SOE perps, CHPWCN Perp was up 0.1pt, SPICPD Perp was down 0.1pt [4]. Last Trading Day's Top Movers | Top Performers | Price | Change | Top Underperformers | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | JD 4 1/8 01/14/50 | 79.7 | 1.9 | ROADKG 5.9 09/05/28 | 27.5 | - 0.7 | | TSIVMG 1.55 12/17/29 | 71.0 | 1.2 | NWDEVL 10.131 PERP | 35.0 | - 0.7 | | WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26 | 90.4 | 1.0 | SOCGEN 6 3/4 PERP | 98.6 | - 0.6 | | MONMIN 8.44 04/03/30 | 96.7 | 0.8 | ROADKG 6.7 03/30/28 | 28.3 | - 0.6 | | HONGQI 7.05 01/10/28 | 102.8 | 0.7 | ROADKG 6 03/04/29 | 27.5 | - 0.5 | [5] Macro News Recap - On Tuesday, S&P was up 0.06%, Dow was up 0.40%, and Nasdaq was down 0.39%. Trump reached a deal with Japan to set the tariff rate at 15%. US Treasury Secretary will meet China next week to discuss an extension of the 12 Aug'25 tariff deadline on Chinese imports. UST yield was lower, with 2/5/10/30 yield at 3.83%/3.88%/4.35%/4.90% [7]. Desk Analyst Comments - China Mengniu Dairy proposes to issue 5yr and 10yr CNH senior bonds (S&P: BBB+). Considering peers' bonds and adjusting for new - issue premium and credit - rating differential, the FV of new CNH CHMEDA 30 is estimated to be 2.25% vs. IPT of 2.55%, and the FV of new CNH CHMEDA 35 is estimated to be 2.55% vs. IPT of 2.85%. Proceeds will be used for debt refinancing [8]. Mengniu Analysis - Mengniu is a leading Chinese dairy company, ranked in the top 10 globally. It has end - to - end capabilities across the value chain and a traceable digital platform. In FY24, it generated RMB88.7bn revenue, with liquid milk accounting for 82.4%. Gross profit margin rose to 39.6% in FY24, and operating margin improved to 8.2% [11]. - As of Dec'24, Mengniu had a cash balance of RMB32.9bn, total debt of RMB34.6bn (mainly bank loans), and cRMB86bn available credit lines with RMB66.4bn undrawn. Total debt/EBITDA and net debt/EBITDA were 8.0x and 0.4x, and interest - coverage ratio was 3.0x. It has some outstanding bonds, and its liquidity profile is considered manageable [12]. Offshore Asia New Issues - No new offshore Asia issues were priced today [13]. - Pipeline issues include Guotai Junan International Holdings (USD, 3yr, SOFR + 115, -/BBB+/-) and Jiaozuo State - owned Capital Operation (Holding) Group (USD, 3yr, 6.5%, unrated) [14]. News and Market Color - There were 139 credit bonds issued yesterday in onshore primary issuances, amounting to RMB205bn. Month - to - date, 1,473 credit bonds were issued, raising RMB1,582bn, a 19.7% yoy increase. China property loans reached a two - year high. Del Monte seeks approval to sell business by end - September with a USD575mn stalking - horse bid. Foshan R&F Properties auctions 387 units. JD and Meituan invest in humanoid robot startups. Guangzhou Kaisa Center will be auctioned. Fitch assigned BB rating to Li & Fung with stable outlook. Road King requests bond - holders to disclose identities and holdings by 1 Aug'25 4pm CET [16].

Group 1 - The foreign exchange market in China is operating smoothly, with an increased willingness from foreign investors to allocate assets in RMB, and overall balanced cross-border capital flows [1][3] - In the first half of the year, the scale of foreign-related income and expenditure in China reached a record high of $7.6 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 10.4% [3] - There was a net inflow of $127.3 billion in cross-border funds, with a significant quarter-on-quarter growth of 46% in the second quarter [3] Group 2 - Foreign exchange reserves increased to $33,174 billion by the end of June, up by $115.1 billion from the end of 2024 [3] - The trading volume in the domestic RMB foreign exchange market reached $21 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, with derivatives trading accounting for 65% of the total [3] - Foreign investment in domestic stocks and funds saw a net increase of $10.1 billion, reversing the trend of net reductions over the past two years [3] Group 3 - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange plans to implement three key measures to enhance cross-border trade and investment, including expanding pilot policies in free trade zones and simplifying foreign direct investment registration [4] - The foreign debt quota for high-quality technology enterprises will be increased to $20 million, with formal documents to be released soon [4] - The market mechanism for RMB exchange rates is being continuously improved, with a historical high of 30% in the foreign exchange hedging ratio among enterprises [4]