Macroeconomic Insights - China's economic growth is characterized by a shift from a single focus on growth rate to a more balanced and stable economic structure, with significant contributions from domestic consumption [2] - The resilience of exports has exceeded expectations despite external tariff pressures, indicating a robust adaptability of China's economic fundamentals [2] - The "anti-involution" policies are positively impacting the midstream manufacturing sector, leading to a revaluation of value driven by deeper industrial structure changes [2] Bond Market Analysis - The 10-year government bond yield is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a range of approximately 30 basis points, reflecting a complex interplay of market forces [3] - The narrative in the bond market has shifted from linear macroeconomic projections to a focus on event impacts, policy expectations, and institutional behaviors [3] - Chinese bonds are becoming increasingly attractive to global investors, offering stable returns and low correlation, positioning them as a potential "stability anchor" in global portfolios [4] Artificial Intelligence Sector - The AI sector is transitioning from a "technology race" to a practical "value realization" phase, with rapid industry expansion and a shift in investment focus from infrastructure to application layers [5] - The structure of the AI industry is expected to resemble an inverted pyramid, with increasing market size driven by applications, models, and chips [5] - Companies with a growing share of AI revenue are likely to attract more capital market attention, leading to potential valuation increases [5] Commodity Market Trends - The commodity market is undergoing a significant value reassessment, with a clear divide in performance between traditional cyclical products and sectors like precious and non-ferrous metals [7] - Analysts predict that the structural differentiation in the commodity market will continue, driven by supply reshaping, policy adjustments, and enhanced financial attributes [7] - Non-ferrous metals are widely regarded as having the most significant upside potential in the upcoming market landscape [7]

美元地位又不保了。 只是人民币重返"6"时代，怎么就让美国这么慌张？又为何说，也正是因为人民币重返"6时代"，我们的 钱包、我们的消费怕是要变样了？ 12月25日，外汇市场迎来标志性一刻，离岸人民币对美元汇率冲破7.0心理关口，一度达到6.9973。这是 自2024年9月以来，人民币汇率首次重返"6时代"。 而就在同一天，在岸人民币对美元汇率也升破7.01元关口。汇率的这场变化不是冰冷数字的游戏，而是 一场关乎普通人钱袋子的现实变革。 人民币升值对普通消费者的影响最为直接而显著。好比一件曾标价1000美元的外套，花了7300元人民 币。 然如今再看同款产品，只需要不到7000元。 而这种购买力变化不是理论计算，而是每个跨境消费者都能感受到的实际差异。 而赴美留学的家庭也享受到汇率红利。按照在纽约留学加生活费约5万美元，按年初汇率需36.5万元人 民币，现在只需约35万元，节省了一笔可观开支。这种变化正在影响中国家庭的留学规划，部分原本犹 豫的家庭加快了送子女出国的决定。 出境游市场同样感受到了汇率变动的影响。春节临近，计划赴日旅游的游客发现，同样兑换10万日元， 现在比年初节省了约100元人民币。虽然单次节省 ...

在全球经济与政策周期分化的背景下，我国债券市场正凭借其独特的收益来源与风险特性，吸引着国际 资本的长期目光。 年终之际，中金公司研究部固收组及国际组负责人、固收首席分析师陈健恒在接受新华财经专访时指 出，"我国债券的综合回报在全球主要市场中持续靠前。对投资者而言，其价值不仅在于收益，更在于 它能有效降低整个债券组合的波动性，提升夏普比率。" 即使在2025年市场呈区间震荡、资本利得贡献减弱的背景下，人民币债券的相对吸引力依然稳固。陈健 恒分析称，"从美元投资者的视角看，对冲汇率风险后持有我国中短期债券，其综合回报仍优于美债。 若考虑人民币本身的升值潜力，总回报更具竞争力。"这一判断，揭示了在全球资产再平衡过程中，人 民币债券正从"可选项"逐步转变为"必选项"的内在逻辑。 价值重估：全球资本为何青睐人民币债券？ 在全球利率中枢高位波动、增长预期分化的宏观图景下，资本追逐的不仅是收益，更是风险调整后的回 报与资产的差异化。人民币债券提供的，正是这样一种稀缺的复合价值。 "我国货币政策与其他主要经济体的相关度较低，这使得我国债券价格波动与海外市场并不同步。"陈健 恒指出，这种低相关性是其在全球投资组合中最核心的吸引 ...

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has surpassed the 7.0 mark against the USD, reaching a high of 6.9912, marking a significant shift in the currency's valuation and indicating a new phase of volatility in the RMB exchange rate [3]. Group 1: Drivers Behind the RMB Surge - The decline of the USD index has been dramatic, with the Federal Reserve initiating a rate cut cycle, resulting in a total reduction of 150 basis points in 2025 and a 9.8% annual drop in the USD index, the largest since 2017 [4]. - There has been a concentrated release of corporate foreign exchange settlement demand, with an expected monthly settlement volume of over $200 billion in December, driven by export companies converting USD revenues into RMB [5]. - Economic fundamentals have strengthened, with a record trade surplus of over $1.08 trillion in the first 11 months of 2025, providing a solid foundation for the exchange rate [6]. Group 2: Market Impacts - There is a new pattern in cross-border capital flows, with over 600 billion yuan net inflow from foreign capital in 2025, and daily trading volume of RMB bonds exceeding 50 billion HKD [6]. - Export companies are facing pressure due to a 6% appreciation of the RMB against the USD, which has compressed profit margins by 2-3 percentage points in sectors like home appliances and textiles [7]. - The valuation of A-shares has increased, with the MSCI China Index rising 18% year-to-date, benefiting significantly from the RMB appreciation [7]. Group 3: Future Pathways - In the short term, the RMB may continue its strong performance, with the next target being 6.95, and potential testing of the 6.90 psychological level before the Lunar New Year [8]. - In the medium term, the central bank may intervene if the RMB appreciates rapidly beyond 6.8, and there is a risk of a USD rebound if the Fed's rate cut cycle ends mid-2026 [10]. - Long-term reforms may deepen the marketization of the exchange rate, with potential adjustments to the central parity formation mechanism and an acceleration of RMB internationalization [11]. Group 4: Corporate Responses - Export companies are encouraged to adopt dynamic hedging strategies, such as using forward contracts combined with options to lock in exchange rates while retaining upside potential [12]. - Companies are advised to regionalize their supply chains to reduce reliance on USD settlements and utilize local currencies for risk hedging [12]. - Financial innovation is suggested, including the trial of "currency insurance" products to incorporate exchange rate fluctuations into supply chain financing models [12].

最近财经圈最火的话题，莫过于人民币的强势逆袭，12月23日，离岸人民币对美元汇率突破7.02，创下14个月来的新高。 距离7这个关键整数关口只有一步之遥，与此同时，在岸人民币也突破7.03，一天之内上涨了近百点。 这波持续14个月的上涨行情，就像一场影响广泛的蝴蝶效应，让不同群体感受到了截然不同的冲击。 出口企业忙着一到账就结汇，生怕利润缩水；而普通老百姓却在不知不觉中享受到了汇率升值带来的福利，这场看似专业的汇率变动，其实和每个人的生活 都息息相关。 要弄明白人民币为啥突然这么值钱，其实核心就两个关键因素，一个是外部环境变化，一个是国内季节性需求，这两个因素凑到一起，就推动人民币开启了 持续上涨的行情。 从外部来看，主要是美元近期有点疲软，12月以来，美联储宣布降息，这让美元的吸引力下降，美元指数一路走弱，甚至一度跌破97。 简单说，美元变得没那么抢手了，其他货币自然就相对升值了，人民币也不例外。 市场普遍预期美联储接下来还会继续降息，这会进一步影响美元的长期走势，给人民币升值留下了更大空间，这种全球金融市场的变化，虽然听起来遥远， 但其实直接影响着人民币的购买力。 从国内来看，年底的结汇潮成了重要推手，临 ...

王爷说财经讯：破局美元霸权！中俄结算几乎全用本币！全球货币格局要变天了？ 2025年12月24日，一则重磅消息炸响金融圈：俄罗斯驻华大使——莫尔古洛夫正式表态，俄中已建立可靠的双边结算体系，几乎完全使用卢布和人民币进 行贸易结算。 这意味着中俄贸易中，美元彻底沦为"旁观者"，99.1%的交易都绕开了它！ 咱们普通人可能没感觉，但这事儿对全球金融圈来说，不亚于一场"地震"。为啥中俄要在这个节点彻底抛弃美元结算？这背后藏着怎样的考量？对咱们的 钱袋子、对全球货币格局又会有啥影响？ 01、俄中几乎完全用卢布人民币结算！ 先把事件来龙去脉说清楚。 首先得明确，这不是一时兴起的决定，而是中俄贸易合作深化的必然结果。 数据显示，中国已连续15年稳居俄罗斯最大贸易伙伴国地位，2024年两国贸易额就达到2448.19亿美元，俄罗斯也是中国第五大贸易伙伴国。 而在2020年，中俄贸易中本币结算比例还只有20%，短短几年就飙升到99.1%，这个增速足以说明双方合作的迫切性和坚定性。 更关键的是，两国已经搭建起独立于西方的结算通道，俄罗斯多家银行接入人民币跨境支付系统（CIPS），中方银行也加入了俄央行的SPFS系统，不用 再依赖 ...

新华社北京12月21日电 新闻分析｜人民币国际化加速前进的"三重驱动" 新华社记者杜静 跨境使用规模稳步增长，债券投融资受到青睐，离岸人民币市场不断升温……今年以来，人民币国际化 不断取得积极进展，受到海外广泛关注和积极评价。 国际航空运输协会11月初宣布将人民币纳入其清算系统的可结算货币名单，允许全球航空公司与航空供 应商以人民币进行结算。今年年中，埃及宣布允许中国企业使用人民币在埃及注册公司。 人民币在跨境贸易投资领域正获得更广泛使用。据中国人民银行最新发布的《人民币国际化报告 （2025）》，2025年上半年，银行代客人民币跨境收付金额合计为34.9万亿元，同比增长14.0%。人民 币已成为全球第二大贸易融资货币；按全口径计算，人民币为全球第三大支付货币。 与此同时，人民币债券投融资受到国际市场青睐。今年4月，中国财政部在英国伦敦发行首笔60亿元人 民币绿色主权债券，总申购金额是发行金额的6.9倍。高认购倍数印证了国际投资者对中国主权债券的 认可。10月，中国银行伦敦分行发行全球首笔以英镑和离岸人民币双币种计价的绿色债券。 彭博新闻社网站日前报道，截至12月中旬，今年"点心债"发行总额约为8700亿元人 ...

哈喽，大家好，今天小睿带大家拆解人民币创 14 个月新高后的关键命题 ——2026 年真能跌破 7 关口？ 三大核心动力 + 两大隐忧一文说透！ 12月16日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0602，创下2024年10月以来的新高。 就在三天前，离岸人民币盘中触及 7.0381，较 11 月低点累计升值超 1%，这波 14 个月来最强劲的上涨 行情，让 "人民币破 7" 成为市场热议的焦点。 外部宽松周期开启 人民币此轮升值的直接推手，源于全球货币政策的转向。 12月11日，美联储如期降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率降至3.50%-3.75%，本轮累计降息已达175个基 点。 更关键的是联邦公开市场委员会明确暗示，疲软的劳动力市场和关税下调对通胀的抑制作用，将促使 2026年一季度再降25个基点。 这一政策动向直接引发美元走弱，美元指数近期跌破100关口，创下年内新低。 与日元、韩元的震荡表现不同，人民币凭借稳健的基本面，成为亚太货币中的 "优等生"，同期新加坡 元升值 5.4%，泰铢上涨 7.2%，而人民币升值幅度虽未居前，但波动率创下 10 年新低，展现出超强韧 性。 香港金管局的同步行动进一步强化了宽松预期。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session outlines a grand blueprint for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the importance of financial work in supporting China's modernization and national rejuvenation efforts [1] Group 1: High-Level Opening and International Cooperation - The company recognizes the need for a capital bridge to facilitate the new domestic and international economic collaboration, positioning itself as a leader in this dual circulation [2] - The company has completed over 3 trillion yuan in overseas equity financing and over 4.2 trillion yuan in offshore bond financing, serving approximately 5,500 overseas institutional clients [2] - The company has introduced nearly 160 billion yuan in foreign capital this year, enhancing international cooperation and promoting efficient cross-border capital flow [2] Group 2: Capital Market Development - The company has actively promoted high-level capital market openness, assisting in the establishment of international consensus and facilitating cross-listings [3] - It has launched a 1 billion yuan investment fund for economic and trade development between China and Portugal, and participated in high-profile economic and financial forums in Japan and Singapore [3] - The company has supported the issuance of the first RMB bond in Central Asia and has been a leader in issuing RMB government bonds in Macau [3] Group 3: Financial Services for the Real Economy - The company is committed to enhancing financial services for the real economy, focusing on five key areas: technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance [4][5][6] - It has supported technology innovation projects exceeding 1 trillion yuan and established multiple thematic funds totaling over 36 billion yuan [4] - The company has managed over 180 billion yuan in pension assets and has been recognized for its leadership in social security services [5] Group 4: Strategic Development and Future Goals - The company aims to align its strategy with the national "15th Five-Year Plan," enhancing its role as a leading international investment bank [7][8] - It will focus on serving the real economy, supporting technological innovation, and promoting green transformation [8] - The company plans to strengthen its global presence and act as a bridge for Chinese enterprises going abroad, enhancing its competitiveness in the international financial landscape [8][9] Group 5: Risk Management and Innovation - The company emphasizes the importance of risk management as a lifeline, developing a comprehensive risk management system to ensure stability in the financial market [9] - It aims to foster innovation and improve corporate governance, enhancing internal vitality through optimized incentives and talent development [9]

Core Viewpoint - The continuous growth of China's foreign exchange reserves indicates a stable status in international balance of payments, cross-border capital flows, exchange rates, and asset price changes, providing a strategic buffer for the country against external shocks and ensuring the stability of the RMB exchange rate [1][6]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of November, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 33,464 billion USD, marking a month-on-month increase of 30 million USD or 0.09%, and achieving the highest level since December 2015 [3]. - The sustained stability of foreign reserves suggests that China maintains a robust position in international payments and capital flows, with expectations for continued stability at high levels [3][7]. - The increase in foreign reserves is attributed to factors such as macroeconomic data from major economies and expectations regarding monetary policy, leading to a decline in the US dollar index [3][8]. Group 2: Exchange Rate Dynamics - The global currency market has seen a trend of a weakening US dollar, with the dollar index dropping 0.29% to 99.4 in November, while major non-USD currencies have shown mixed performance [6][8]. - The offshore RMB appreciated significantly, surpassing 7.09 against the USD, reflecting a cumulative increase of over 3,500 basis points since its low in April [6]. - Analysts predict that the RMB exchange rate will remain stable or slightly stronger in December, with expectations of fluctuations within the range of 7.05 to 7.1 [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The National Foreign Exchange Administration emphasizes that China's economy remains stable and progressing, supporting the future stability of foreign exchange reserves [7]. - China's commitment to a market-oriented exchange rate mechanism and ongoing financial market opening will attract foreign investment, contributing to stable foreign capital inflows [7]. - The strong manufacturing sector and complete supply chain in China are expected to ensure a continued trade surplus, further supporting foreign exchange inflows [7].