1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent bond market fluctuations are mainly due to policy - related expectation changes. With the marginal easing of the "anti - involution" stance, the current bond market pressure has significantly eased [2][31]. - The adjustment of the bond VAT policy will push up the interest rate center of new bonds by 5 - 10BP, but the risk is relatively controllable. This policy adjustment does not affect the overall bond market trend, and the core logic of maintaining low interest rates to support the economy still holds. If there is no unexpected policy shock, the risk of a significant upward movement in interest rates is relatively limited. Coupled with the increased bond - allocation demand due to the reduction of the insurance predetermined interest rate, there are still opportunities in the bond market [2][31]. - In the short term, investors can focus on the gaming opportunities during the switch between new and old bonds after the VAT policy adjustment. In the medium - term, the fundamental performance and institutional demand determine that the bond market is generally in a positive trend. Investors can seize the opportunity to allocate assets at high points, but whether the yield can break through the previous low still depends on the monetary policy trends and fundamental data changes [3][31]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Redemption Mitigation and New Variables in Institutional Behavior 3.1.1 Improvement in Fund Redemption Pressure - Last week (7/21 - 7/25), due to multiple factors such as supply - demand policy efforts, positive stock market sentiment, and capital - market fluctuations, the bond market adjusted significantly, and funds faced redemption pressure, showing a net selling state for all bond types. However, this situation improved significantly this week (7/28 - 8/1) [15]. - This round of fund redemptions is characterized by "short - term, large - scale, and rapid" features. The single - week net selling of cash bonds by funds was large, second only to the level after September 24 last year. With the slowdown of the stock market rally and the stabilization of the bond market this week, funds have resumed net buying of cash bonds [15]. 3.1.2 New Variables in Institutional Behavior - **Insurance Predetermined Interest Rate Cut**: On July 25, the insurance industry association announced that the second - quarter predetermined interest rate research value was 1.99%, 25BP lower than the current interest rate ceiling for two consecutive quarters. Life insurance companies have lowered their product predetermined interest rate ceilings. In the short term, this will promote premium income growth to some extent, increasing insurance's bond - allocation demand. Recently, the demand for ultra - long - term treasury bonds by insurance companies has increased significantly, suppressing the significant upward movement of yields. In the long term, as the cost of the liability side decreases, the return requirements of insurance on the asset side will also decrease, further limiting the future callback space of 30Y treasury bonds [20][21]. - **Bond VAT Policy Adjustment**: Starting from August 8, 2025, the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to VAT, while the previously issued bonds will continue to be tax - exempt until maturity. From the perspective of institutional behavior, asset management institutions such as public funds still have tax advantages, which is beneficial for their phased expansion. For the bond market, a 5 - 10BP spread will occur between new and old bonds, and volatility may increase [25][27]. 3.1.3 Summary The bond market pressure has eased. The VAT policy adjustment will push up the interest rate center of new bonds, but the overall bond market trend remains unchanged. There are still opportunities in the bond market. In the short term, investors can focus on the gaming opportunities during the new - old bond switch and the opportunities in credit bonds. In the medium - term, the bond market is generally positive, but the yield breakthrough depends on policy and data [31]. 3.2 Institutional Bond Custody There is no detailed analysis content provided in the text, only relevant figure references are given [33][35]. 3.3 Institutional Fund Tracking 3.3.1 Fund Prices This week, the cross - month liquidity tightened. R007 closed at 1.69%, up 19BP from last week; DR007 closed at 1.65%, up 15BP from last week; the 6 - month national - share transfer discount rate closed at 0.84%, up 7BP from last week [4][39]. 3.3.2 Financing Situation This week, the balance of pledged reverse repurchase in the inter - bank market was 128315.9 billion yuan, an increase of 16.2% from last week. From the perspective of broad - based asset management, fund companies and bank wealth management products had net financings of 1294.4 billion yuan and 2303.6 billion yuan respectively this week [42]. 3.4 Quantitative Tracking of Institutional Behavior 3.4.1 Measuring Fund Duration This week, the measured duration of high - performance interest - rate bond funds in the market was 6.87, a decrease of 0.03 from last week. The measured duration of general interest - rate bond funds was 5.86, an increase of 0.02 from last week [52]. 3.4.2 "Asset Shortage" Index There is no specific analysis content provided, only figure references and index explanations are given [60][61]. 3.4.3 Institutional Behavior Trading Signals - **Secondary Capital Bonds**: There are trading signals such as turnover rate, long - short difference, and momentum, with specific construction methods referring to relevant reports [61][62]. - **Ultra - long Treasury Bonds**: There are trading signals such as turnover rate, long - short difference, and momentum [64][65]. - **10Y Local Bonds**: There are trading signals such as institutional long - short difference and momentum [67][68]. 3.4.4 All - round Knowledge of Institutional Leverage This week, the overall market leverage ratio was 108.0%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from last week. In terms of broad - based asset management, the leverage ratio of insurance institutions was 117.0%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points from last week; the fund leverage ratio was 104.2%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points from last week; the securities firm leverage ratio was 189.3%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points from last week [69]. 3.4.5 Bank Self - operation Comparison Table A comparison table of bank self - operation investment is provided, including nominal yields, tax costs, and returns after considering tax and risk capital for different investment products [73]. 3.5 Asset Management Product Data Tracking 3.5.1 Funds There are figures showing the weekly establishment scale of various types of funds and the 2025 fund yield distribution, but no specific analysis content is provided [75]. 3.5.2 Bank Wealth Management This week, the overall market product break - even rate of bank wealth management products increased compared with last week, reaching 1.6%. There are also figures showing the weekly issuance volume and 2025 yield distribution of bank wealth management products [78][79]. 3.6 Treasury Bond Futures Trend Tracking There are figures showing the inter - period spread trend and the basis level of the next - quarter T contract, but no specific analysis content is provided [83]. 3.7 Broad - based Asset Management Pattern A graph shows the scale changes of broad - based asset management, including private funds, securities firm asset management, public funds, bank wealth management, insurance, trust, and fund special accounts, but no specific analysis content is provided [85].