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利率点评:基金卖了什么债,卖了多少?
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-09-26 07:13
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is currently facing adjustments due to the release of the draft for soliciting opinions on fund fee adjustments. The selling pressure from funds is testing the承接 capacity of allocation investors. However, the bond market does not need to be overly pessimistic as the fund redemption pressure has not spread to form a negative feedback loop. The 10Y Treasury bond rate is unlikely to reach the annual high of 1.90%, which can serve as a stable anchor for bond asset pricing. Meanwhile, medium - term credit bonds are facing a process of re - finding the peak after ultra - long bonds [5][30][31]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Recent Bond Market Adjustment: Fund Selling Pressure Tests the承接 Capacity of Allocation Investors - **Market Reaction to the Draft**: After the release of the draft for soliciting opinions on fund fee adjustments on September 5, the selling pressure from trading investors increased, testing the承接 capacity of allocation investors. The bond market declined continuously from Tuesday this week and rebounded strongly on Thursday afternoon. On September 25, the yield of the active 30Y Treasury bond reached a high of 2.1425%, approaching the annual high [1][8]. - **Expected Redemption by Institutions**: Insurance, bank self - operation, and wealth management may redeem some bond funds. Bank self - operation may increase its direct participation in the bond market, leaving only medium - and long - term pure bond funds with strong active management capabilities. For insurance, the upcoming implementation of the new accounting standards in 2026 and the draft for soliciting opinions reduce its willingness to allocate funds, but the redemption pressure is controllable. Bank wealth management is expected to have a more cautious and long - term allocation style for funds, and the short - term holding demand for medium - and short - term bond funds may shift to ETFs and inter - bank certificate of deposit funds [2][9][10]. - **Impact on Bond Types**: The change in the bond market investor structure means the repricing of various bond types, especially the bonds preferred by public funds (secondary and perpetual bonds, policy - financial bonds, and ultra - long bonds). From the perspective of institutional behavior, public funds have been continuously selling these bonds since September 5, and the selling continued from the 22nd to the 24th of this month, although the intensity has eased. In terms of interest rate changes, the bonds preferred by public funds have led the decline. As of September 24, the interest rates of 3 - 5Y secondary and perpetual bonds have increased by more than 20BP compared to September 5, and the interest rates of various maturities of China Development Bank bonds have also increased more than those of Treasury bonds and local government bonds [3][4][24]. 2. Medium - Term Credit Bonds are Facing a Process of Re - finding the Peak after Ultra - long Bonds - **Market Outlook**: When allocation investors are absent, it is difficult to be bullish on the bond market, but there is no need to be bearish either as the negative feedback loop has not formed. The 10Y Treasury bond rate is unlikely to reach the annual high of 1.90%, which can stabilize the pricing of bond assets [5][30][31]. - **Ultra - long Bonds**: The supply - demand mismatch problem of ultra - long bonds persists. The key is to observe the stabilizing behavior of large banks to determine the "desirable range." The continuous progress of ultra - long bond issuance has put pressure on the interest rate risk of large banks, but as market - makers, they have the obligation to maintain market price stability and may increase their承接 capacity during market adjustments, as seen on September 25 [5][32]. - **Medium - Term Credit Bonds**: The buying power of 3 - 5Y credit bonds, especially 5Y secondary and perpetual bonds, is gradually weakening. The allocation investors' desirable entry points may be significantly raised. The main buying forces of credit bonds, funds and wealth management, are expected to be affected. Funds may shrink in scale due to the adjustment of redemption fees, and wealth management will face full - scale valuation rectification in the fourth quarter, reducing its acceptance of high - volatility bonds. Insurance is also gradually withdrawing from the secondary and perpetual bond market. In this adjustment process, 1 - 2Y bonds are expected to stabilize earlier than 3 - 5Y bonds [6][32].
基金赎回全攻略:记住3个到账时间、避开4个费用坑、掌握4个技巧
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-15 01:02
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities of mutual fund redemption, emphasizing the importance of understanding the rules and timing involved to balance cash flow and profit protection. Group 1: Redemption Timing - The redemption time for mutual funds varies based on fund type, trading rules, and clearing processes [2] - Money market funds can achieve "instant redemption" with T+0 to T+1 timing [2] - Stock funds have a waiting period of T+1 to T+3 due to net asset value calculations and clearing processes [4] - Bond funds fall in between, with T+0 to T+2 redemption times [6] Group 2: Factors Affecting Redemption Timing - Redemption requests submitted before 15:00 on trading days typically result in next-day fund availability, while those submitted after are delayed by one day [12] - Legal holidays can extend redemption times to the next trading day [10] - Different sales channels can impact the speed of fund availability, with some platforms offering faster processing [11] Group 3: Strategies for Redemption - Investors are advised to submit redemption requests before 14:30 on trading days to avoid delays [8] - In cases of large redemptions exceeding 10% of fund size, companies may implement "delayed payment" clauses to protect remaining investors [14] - Emotional redemption during market volatility can lead to missed opportunities; a strategy of phased redemption can mitigate risks [16][18] Group 4: Cost Management - Redemption fees decrease based on the holding period, with significant savings for long-term holders [19] - Investors should be aware of "lock-up periods" and minimum holding requirements to avoid forced liquidation [20][22] - Understanding the fee structure and redemption rules can lead to more strategic investment decisions [23]
债券研究周报:赎回缓释后,机构行为的新变量-20250805
Guohai Securities· 2025-08-05 07:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent bond market fluctuations are mainly due to policy - related expectation changes. With the marginal easing of the "anti - involution" stance, the current bond market pressure has significantly eased [2][31]. - The adjustment of the bond VAT policy will push up the interest rate center of new bonds by 5 - 10BP, but the risk is relatively controllable. This policy adjustment does not affect the overall bond market trend, and the core logic of maintaining low interest rates to support the economy still holds. If there is no unexpected policy shock, the risk of a significant upward movement in interest rates is relatively limited. Coupled with the increased bond - allocation demand due to the reduction of the insurance predetermined interest rate, there are still opportunities in the bond market [2][31]. - In the short term, investors can focus on the gaming opportunities during the switch between new and old bonds after the VAT policy adjustment. In the medium - term, the fundamental performance and institutional demand determine that the bond market is generally in a positive trend. Investors can seize the opportunity to allocate assets at high points, but whether the yield can break through the previous low still depends on the monetary policy trends and fundamental data changes [3][31]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Redemption Mitigation and New Variables in Institutional Behavior 3.1.1 Improvement in Fund Redemption Pressure - Last week (7/21 - 7/25), due to multiple factors such as supply - demand policy efforts, positive stock market sentiment, and capital - market fluctuations, the bond market adjusted significantly, and funds faced redemption pressure, showing a net selling state for all bond types. However, this situation improved significantly this week (7/28 - 8/1) [15]. - This round of fund redemptions is characterized by "short - term, large - scale, and rapid" features. The single - week net selling of cash bonds by funds was large, second only to the level after September 24 last year. With the slowdown of the stock market rally and the stabilization of the bond market this week, funds have resumed net buying of cash bonds [15]. 3.1.2 New Variables in Institutional Behavior - **Insurance Predetermined Interest Rate Cut**: On July 25, the insurance industry association announced that the second - quarter predetermined interest rate research value was 1.99%, 25BP lower than the current interest rate ceiling for two consecutive quarters. Life insurance companies have lowered their product predetermined interest rate ceilings. In the short term, this will promote premium income growth to some extent, increasing insurance's bond - allocation demand. Recently, the demand for ultra - long - term treasury bonds by insurance companies has increased significantly, suppressing the significant upward movement of yields. In the long term, as the cost of the liability side decreases, the return requirements of insurance on the asset side will also decrease, further limiting the future callback space of 30Y treasury bonds [20][21]. - **Bond VAT Policy Adjustment**: Starting from August 8, 2025, the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to VAT, while the previously issued bonds will continue to be tax - exempt until maturity. From the perspective of institutional behavior, asset management institutions such as public funds still have tax advantages, which is beneficial for their phased expansion. For the bond market, a 5 - 10BP spread will occur between new and old bonds, and volatility may increase [25][27]. 3.1.3 Summary The bond market pressure has eased. The VAT policy adjustment will push up the interest rate center of new bonds, but the overall bond market trend remains unchanged. There are still opportunities in the bond market. In the short term, investors can focus on the gaming opportunities during the new - old bond switch and the opportunities in credit bonds. In the medium - term, the bond market is generally positive, but the yield breakthrough depends on policy and data [31]. 3.2 Institutional Bond Custody There is no detailed analysis content provided in the text, only relevant figure references are given [33][35]. 3.3 Institutional Fund Tracking 3.3.1 Fund Prices This week, the cross - month liquidity tightened. R007 closed at 1.69%, up 19BP from last week; DR007 closed at 1.65%, up 15BP from last week; the 6 - month national - share transfer discount rate closed at 0.84%, up 7BP from last week [4][39]. 3.3.2 Financing Situation This week, the balance of pledged reverse repurchase in the inter - bank market was 128315.9 billion yuan, an increase of 16.2% from last week. From the perspective of broad - based asset management, fund companies and bank wealth management products had net financings of 1294.4 billion yuan and 2303.6 billion yuan respectively this week [42]. 3.4 Quantitative Tracking of Institutional Behavior 3.4.1 Measuring Fund Duration This week, the measured duration of high - performance interest - rate bond funds in the market was 6.87, a decrease of 0.03 from last week. The measured duration of general interest - rate bond funds was 5.86, an increase of 0.02 from last week [52]. 3.4.2 "Asset Shortage" Index There is no specific analysis content provided, only figure references and index explanations are given [60][61]. 3.4.3 Institutional Behavior Trading Signals - **Secondary Capital Bonds**: There are trading signals such as turnover rate, long - short difference, and momentum, with specific construction methods referring to relevant reports [61][62]. - **Ultra - long Treasury Bonds**: There are trading signals such as turnover rate, long - short difference, and momentum [64][65]. - **10Y Local Bonds**: There are trading signals such as institutional long - short difference and momentum [67][68]. 3.4.4 All - round Knowledge of Institutional Leverage This week, the overall market leverage ratio was 108.0%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from last week. In terms of broad - based asset management, the leverage ratio of insurance institutions was 117.0%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points from last week; the fund leverage ratio was 104.2%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points from last week; the securities firm leverage ratio was 189.3%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points from last week [69]. 3.4.5 Bank Self - operation Comparison Table A comparison table of bank self - operation investment is provided, including nominal yields, tax costs, and returns after considering tax and risk capital for different investment products [73]. 3.5 Asset Management Product Data Tracking 3.5.1 Funds There are figures showing the weekly establishment scale of various types of funds and the 2025 fund yield distribution, but no specific analysis content is provided [75]. 3.5.2 Bank Wealth Management This week, the overall market product break - even rate of bank wealth management products increased compared with last week, reaching 1.6%. There are also figures showing the weekly issuance volume and 2025 yield distribution of bank wealth management products [78][79]. 3.6 Treasury Bond Futures Trend Tracking There are figures showing the inter - period spread trend and the basis level of the next - quarter T contract, but no specific analysis content is provided [83]. 3.7 Broad - based Asset Management Pattern A graph shows the scale changes of broad - based asset management, including private funds, securities firm asset management, public funds, bank wealth management, insurance, trust, and fund special accounts, but no specific analysis content is provided [85].
“3年,终于回本了!”基民“解套”众生相
券商中国· 2025-08-03 14:52
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trend of investors in mutual funds finally breaking even after a prolonged period of losses, highlighting the diverse reactions and strategies among investors as the market recovers [2][3]. Group 1: Market Recovery and Investor Reactions - As of August 1, 2023, six public mutual funds have doubled in value this year, with several well-known fund managers seeing rebounds of over 50% in their representative funds [2]. - Investors who entered the market at high points are experiencing a sense of relief as their accounts return to profitability, leading to varied responses: some choose to redeem their investments, while others opt for cautious withdrawal or even additional investments [2][3]. - A notable investor, Gao Le, who faced a peak loss of nearly 40%, decided to redeem his fund immediately upon breaking even, prioritizing cash in hand for peace of mind [2]. - Another investor, Wang Qian, adopted a more gradual approach, planning to redeem 10% of her holdings for every 5% increase in net value, reflecting a cautious mindset shaped by past experiences [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategies Post-Recovery - Investors' choices after breaking even reveal differences in risk tolerance, investment goals, and market outlooks [5]. - Lin Yang, an investor from the cultural sector, emphasized the importance of accumulating more shares at lower prices rather than focusing solely on breaking even, and he has increased his investment during market lows [3]. - Zhao Meng, a seasoned investor, is using the current rebound to adjust his portfolio, shifting from high-volatility funds to those with lower volatility and benefiting from recent policy changes [4].
近60只基金年内收益率超60% 权益类基金发行迎来小高潮
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 02:47
Group 1 - The average return of actively managed equity funds has reached 13.74% year-to-date as of July 28, with over 90% of more than 4,000 funds achieving positive returns [1] - Nearly 400 funds have returns exceeding 30%, and around 60 funds have returns above 60% [1] - A significant number of funds have doubled their returns this year, with specific funds like Changcheng Medical Industry Select Mixed Fund at 120.89%, Bank of China Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical Mixed Fund at 112.25%, and Yongying Medical Innovation Smart Selection Mixed Fund at 109.01% [1] Group 2 - The market recovery has sparked enthusiasm among fund companies, with 48 equity funds currently in issuance and 39 more set to be issued [1] - Notable fund managers from various firms, including Yongying Fund and Guojin Fund, are launching new funds [1] - Since June 23, high-risk preference funds such as private equity funds and financing funds have played a crucial role in driving market upward momentum [2] - The redemption situation for actively managed equity funds has improved compared to last year, and there is potential for a slight net subscription in the second half of the year [2]
易方达恒安定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金 第三十个运作期开放申购、赎回和转换业务的公告
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-22 23:21
Group 1 - The fund is a periodic open-end bond fund named "E Fund Heng'an Stable Periodic Open-End Bond Fund" with a management code of 005439 [1][2] - The third operation period of the fund is from June 26, 2025, to September 25, 2025, with an open operation period from June 26 to July 2, 2025, and a closed operation period from July 3 to September 25, 2025 [2][3] - The fund is not open for regular investment plans and is only available to qualified institutional investors and qualified foreign institutional investors [2][3] Group 2 - The fund has specific subscription and redemption fee rates based on the amount invested, with rates decreasing as the investment amount increases [1][6] - The minimum subscription amount is set at 1 RMB for online purchases and 10 RMB for direct sales through the company's center [4][5] - The fund management company reserves the right to adjust subscription limits and fees based on market conditions [5][6] Group 3 - Redemption fees are applicable based on the holding period of the fund shares, with a maximum fee of 1.5% for shares held for 0-6 days [11][12] - Investors can redeem all or part of their fund shares, with a minimum redemption of 1 share [10][11] - The fund management company can adjust redemption fees and methods as per the fund contract and market conditions [11][12] Group 4 - The fund allows for conversion between funds, with specific calculation formulas for conversion fees based on the net asset values of the funds involved [12][13] - Conversion fees consist of redemption fees from the outgoing fund and any applicable subscription fee differences for the incoming fund [14][15] - The fund management company can adjust conversion rules and fees based on market conditions [24][25]
【笔记20250528— 债市卷到了会计领域】
债券笔记· 2025-05-28 12:24
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that "black swan" events accelerate existing market trends rather than reversing them, leading to eventual corrections and a return to the original trend [1] - The current financial environment is characterized by a balanced and slightly loose liquidity, with a slight increase in long-term bond yields [1][2] - The central bank conducted a 215.5 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a net injection of 58.5 billion yuan after 157 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [1] Group 2 - The interbank funding rates show a slight decline, with DR001 dropping to approximately 1.41% and DR007 around 1.61% [1] - The bond market is experiencing cautious sentiment, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.70% and increasing to approximately 1.705% by the end of the day [3] - The average yield of long-term pure bond funds this year is only 0.5%, significantly lower than last year's 5.2% [4] Group 3 - The number of high school graduates in China for 2025 is projected to be 13.35 million, a decrease of 70,000 from the previous year, marking the first decline since 2017 [4]
泰信中证同业存单AAA指数7天持有期证券 投资基金开放申购、赎回、转换、定期定额投资业务公告
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao - Zhong Zheng Wang· 2025-05-20 00:05
Group 1 - The fund management company can determine the specific date for subscription based on actual conditions, with a maximum of one month from the effective date of the fund contract to start redemption [1] - Each open day allows subscription, but there is a minimum holding period of 7 days for each fund share before redemption can be requested [1][10] - The minimum subscription amount for direct sales outlets is RMB 50,000 for the first subscription and RMB 10,000 for additional subscriptions, while other sales institutions have a minimum of RMB 1 [3] Group 2 - The fund does not charge a subscription fee but does charge a service fee for fund shares [6] - The maximum subscription amount for a single investor in one day is capped at RMB 10 million, with exceptions for certain types of investors [5] - The redemption amount is calculated as the redeemed shares multiplied by the net value of the fund shares on the redemption day [11] Group 3 - Fund conversion allows investors to directly convert their shares from one fund to another managed by the same fund management company without redeeming first [15] - The conversion fee consists of the redemption fee of the outgoing fund and the difference in subscription fees between the outgoing and incoming funds [12][18] - The minimum application for conversion is one share, while the incoming fund does not have a minimum subscription limit [22]
浙商汇金卓越配置一年持有期混合型基金中基金(FOF)A类份额开放日常赎回业务公告
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-05-06 19:19
Group 1 - The announcement states that the redemption business is only open for Class A fund shares and does not apply to Class B fund shares [1] - The first closed period for Class A fund shares is from the effective date of the fund contract until the day before the corresponding date three months later, with subsequent periods following the same pattern [1][2] - The open period for redemption of Class A fund shares is set from May 8, 2025, to May 14, 2025, during which only redemptions are allowed, and no new subscriptions will be accepted [1][2] Group 2 - The next closed period will begin on May 15, 2025, and last until the day before the corresponding date three months later, specifically until August 14, 2025 [2] - Fund management may adjust the open days and times based on market conditions or changes in trading hours, with prior announcements made as required [2] Group 3 - Redemption requests must be for at least one fund share, and if the remaining balance is less than one share, it must be fully redeemed [3] - The redemption fee decreases with the length of time the investor holds the fund shares, with specific percentages allocated to the fund's assets based on the holding period [4] Group 4 - The fund management can adjust the redemption fee rates or methods within the contract's provisions and must announce any changes in advance [4] - Fund promotions may occur, allowing for temporary reductions in subscription and redemption fees, subject to regulatory requirements [4] Group 5 - The fund's net asset value and cumulative net asset value will be disclosed weekly and within two working days after each open day [8] - Investors are encouraged to consult the fund's contract and prospectus for detailed information regarding the fund's operations and any changes to subscription and redemption rules [9]