Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in global long-term bond yields is driven by overlapping factors including fiscal concerns, monetary policy, and supply-demand dynamics related to term premium effects [1][6]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - A global bond sell-off has been observed, particularly affecting long-term bonds, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassing 5% for the first time since July [3]. - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield reached a historic high of 3.286%, reflecting a cumulative increase of 100 basis points this year due to high inflation and low real interest rates [3]. - The 30-year UK bond yield hit its highest level since 1998 at 5.75%, while the 30-year French bond yield also exceeded levels seen in 2008 [3][6]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Yield Increases - Analysts indicate that the sell-off is driven by concerns over fiscal and monetary policies, compounded by political risks in various countries [6][8]. - The increase in bond issuance and a decline in traditional long-bond buyers have removed previous mechanisms that helped lower yields [7]. - The market is increasingly skeptical about central banks' ability to control inflation in the medium term, particularly regarding the independence of central banks like the Federal Reserve [6][7]. Group 3: Political and Economic Risks - The UK faces a £35 billion budget deficit, raising investor concerns about fiscal policy effectiveness [8]. - France is attempting to implement a $51 billion budget cut to curb its deficit, but political divisions complicate these efforts [8]. - Japan's political instability, highlighted by resignations within the ruling party, raises concerns about future fiscal policies and potential increases in the fiscal deficit [8][9]. Group 4: Seasonal and Technical Factors - Historical data shows that September is typically a poor month for long-term bonds, with a median decline of 2% over the past decade [10]. - Technical liquidity factors, including significant cash withdrawals from the banking system, are expected to impact the bond market in September [10].